Ctrip Has Been Thrown Out With The Bathwater
Alpha Gen Capital
Alpha Gen Capital
Oct. 26, 2015, 12:45 PM
Oct. 26, 2015, 9:15 AM
Oct. 26, 2015, 7:41 AM
- Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) announces it completed a share exchange transaction with Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) involving travel site player Qunar Cayman Islands.
- Baidu will receive 11,488,381 shares of Ctrip in exchange for 178.7M class A ordinary shares and 11.45M class B shares of Qunar Cayman Islands (NASDAQ:QUNR).
- After the transaction closes, Baidu will own shares representing 25% of Ctrip's voting interests.
- Baidu and Ctrip also say they agreed to work together on more products and services.
- CTRP +20.4% premarket to $89.50. Baidu +8.47% to $170.95. QUNR +33.1% to $52.60.
Sep. 16, 2015, 2:06 PM
- The beaten-down Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges respectively rose 4.9% and 6.5% overnight thanks to late-session surges - many suspect fresh government intervention was responsible. U.S. traded Chinese Web/mobile names have risen sharply (CQQQ +4.4%) on a day the Nasdaq is up just 0.3%.
- Big gainers include search giant Baidu (BIDU +5.4%), rival Qihoo (QIHU +6.5%), auto sites Bitauto (BITA +6.4%) and Autohome (ATHM +5.3%), travel sites Ctrip (CTRP +7.4%) and Qunar (QUNR +6.5%), online real estate plays SouFun (SFUN +6.1%) and Leju (LEJU +4.5%), and online retailers JD.com (JD +4.8%) and Vipshop (VIPS +6.3%). Priceline announced yesterday afternoon it had hiked its Ctrip stake to 11.6%.
- Other winners include ChinaCache (CCIH +8.1%), Cheetah Mobile (CMCM +6.2%), Sina (SINA +6.7%), Weibo (WB +4.3%), Youku (YOKU +5.7%), and YY (YY +4.1%).
- ETFs: KWEB, QQQC, EMQQ
Sep. 4, 2015, 2:38 PM
- A slew of Chinese firms are among the biggest tech decliners as U.S. markets once more go into risk-aversion mode following a weaker-than-expected jobs report. The Guggenheim China Tech ETF (CQQQ -3.3%) is now down 19% YTD.
- Big decliners include Alibaba (BABA -4.7%), as well as e-commerce peers JD.com (JD -6.6%), Vipshop (VIPS -7.9%), and LightInTheBox (LITB -3.8%). Others include Qihoo (QIHU -4.4%), Autohome (ATHM -5.3%), Sina (SINA -4.7%), YY (YY -4.3%), Ctrip (CTRP -4.3%), Qunar (QUNR -4.4%), Wowo (WOWO -5.8%), and iDreamSky (DSKY -5.6%).
- Yesterday, Bloomberg reported Alibaba founder/chairman Jack Ma and vice chairman Joseph Tsai plan to take out a $2B+ margin loan pledged against their Alibaba stock holdings, rather than sell shares to raise funds. The money reportedly could go towards Tsai's Blue Pool Capital family office.
- After initially moving higher, Qihoo is now below where it traded before posting a Q2 EPS beat (and not providing any guidance) on Tuesday afternoon.
- ETFs: KWEB, QQQC, EMQQ
Aug. 31, 2015, 2:11 PM
- U.S.-traded Chinese tech stocks are seeing fresh selling pressure (CQQQ -2.9%) after Beijing announced it's halting major stock purchases to prop up local markets. Authorities also arrested nearly 200 people for actions deemed to have a destabilizing effect on markets.
- Decliners include giants Alibaba (BABA -3.9%) and Baidu (BIDU -3.1%), as well as Ctrip (CTRP -4.4%), Qunar (QUNR -4.8%), Vipshop (VIPS -4.7%), JD.com (JD -3.2%), Jumei (JMEI -4.2%), NetEase (NTES -5.8%), Momo (MOMO -4.4%), and 500.com (WBAI -4%). The Nasdaq is down 0.8%.
- Separately, the WSJ has taken a look at Alibaba and JD's efforts to grow sales to rural Chinese shoppers, as urban user growth slows. The number of rural Chinese shopping online rose 41% last year to 77M (compares with a rural Chinese population of 600M), outpacing the 17% growth seen in urban shoppers. Chinese rural per capita income was still less than 1/3 of urban levels as of 2013.
- ETFs: QQQC, KWEB, EMQQ
Aug. 25, 2015, 12:56 PM
- The Shanghai exchange fell another 7.6% overnight, but that has been overshadowed by a surprise rate cut (delivered after Chinese markets closed) by the PBOC and a 3.4% Nasdaq gain. The Guggenheim China Tech ETF (CQQQ +5.3%) is up 16% from its Monday morning low, and down 36% from a May peak of $45.64.
- Alibaba (BABA +6.5%) is among today's big gainers, as are e-commerce peers JD.com (JD +8.7%), Vipshop (VIPS +6.9%), LightInTheBox (LITB +13.1%), and Jumei (JMEI +12.1%). Other standouts include Weibo (WB +19.8%), 51job (JOBS +11.5%), Bitauto (BITA +10.2%), NQ Mobile (NQ +9.7%), Sohu (SOHU +6.7%), Ctrip (CTRP +8.1%), and NetEase (NTES +8.3%).
- E-House (EJ +9.8%) and subsidiary Leju (LEJU +8.6%) are up strongly after posting Q2 beats (I, II) and respectively reiterating full-year revenue guidance of $1.05B-$1.1B (+16%-22% Y/Y) and $600M-$620M (+21%-25%). Qunar (QUNR +6.2%) is doing well after posting mixed Q2 results and issuing strong Q3 sales guidance.
- ETFs: QQQC, KWEB, EMQQ
Aug. 24, 2015, 9:22 AM
- The Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges nosedived again overnight as fears of an economic slowdown triggered panic selling, and U.S. futures are off sharply premarket. As one would expect, many U.S.-traded Chinese names are seeing big losses.
- Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) -9.8% premarket. SINA -9.7%. Weibo (NASDAQ:WB) -10.5%. Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) -9.4%. Qunar (NASDAQ:QUNR) -15%. SouFun (NYSE:SFUN) -15.4%. NQ Mobile -10.1%. Qihoo (NYSE:QIHU) -14.7%. YY -9.3%. Bitauto (NYSE:BITA) -8.8%. JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) -9.6%. Vipshop (NYSE:VIPS) -15.9%.
- Alibaba (previous) is down 9.8% to $61.48, making new post-IPO lows along the way. Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) fell a relatively modest 5% overnight in Hong Kong.
- ETFs: CQQQ, KWEB, QQQC, EMQQ
Aug. 11, 2015, 12:27 PM
- In its latest move to boost slowing economic growth, the PBOC has devalued the yuan, while insisting it's a one-time move. The yuan/dollar ratio is currently at 6.33, down from 6.21 yesterday.
- A number of Chinese Internet stocks that record the lion's share of their revenue in yuan are seeing their U.S. shares (denominated in dollars, of course) underperform (CQQQ -3.4%) amid a 1.3% drop for the Nasdaq. Major decliners include Baidu (BIDU -3.8%), Qunar (QUNR -10.2%), Ctrip (CTRP -5.9%), JD.com (JD -5.8%), Sina (SINA -5%), NetEase (NTES -3.9%), Jumei (JMEI -10.7%), Youku (YOKU -6.2%), Bitauto (BITA -6.4%), Leju (LEJU -6%), Changyou (CYOU -7.7%), and Autohome (ATHM -5.3%).
- Among Chinese solar names, Daqo (DQ -14.4%) and JinkoSolar (JKS -3.3%) are seeing big losses.
- JD.com is adding to the Monday losses seen following a Morgan Stanley downgrade and news Alibaba has formed an alliance with major electronics retailer Suning. Both JD and Jumei could be affected by fellow online retailer Vipshop (down 11.1%), which yesterday afternoon provided light Q3 sales guidance to go with a Q2 EPS beat.
- ETFs: KWEB, QQQC, EMQQ
- Yesterday: Chinese Internet stocks rally after Shanghai/Shenzhen post big gains
Aug. 4, 2015, 1:59 PM
- Initially down yesterday following a Q2 beat (moreso on EPS than sales), strong Q3 guidance, and news Tencent is offering to take eLong private, Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) has surged above $78 today. Morgan Stanley has upgraded the Chinese online travel leader to Overweight, and Deutsche has hiked its target.
- Likely going over well: Ctrip suggested on its earnings call (transcript) it won't match archrival Qunar's (QUNR -0.4%) aggressive spending and promotional activity, at least on the high end. "I think on the low-end actually is getting more competitive with Qunar ... And they are adopting burning money strategy, where they offer the low-cost prices and with almost no ROI and negative ROI ... we can also do that, but we want to do it a bit more smarter way. So we will compete aggressively on this market, will maintain our market share on the low-end market as well. On the high-end because the customer is less [price] sensitive, they value service and brand so we seem we are to able to maintain a high growth, at the same time still keep a very reasonable profitability."
- Ctrip also once more talked up its mobile growth: Cumulative app downloads have reached 1B, up 200M Q/Q and 5x Y/Y. Mobile transaction value rose 120% Y/Y.
- Q2 results, guidance/details
Aug. 3, 2015, 7:03 PM
- Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) is guiding for 45%-50% Y/Y RMB-based revenue growth. Consensus in dollars is for 43% growth.
- The modest size of Ctrip's Q2 sales beat could be disappointing investors, after a much bigger beat was delivered in May. Hotel (accommodation) revenue rose 47% Y/Y (volume +55%) to $178M, transportation (ticket) revenue 45% to $170M (volume +106%), packaged tour revenue 61% to $53M, and corporate travel revenue 34% to $19M.
- R&D spend rose 66% Y/Y to $128M, sales/marketing 42% to $109M, and G&A 34% to $42M. Gross margin was 71% vs. 70% in Q1 and 72% a year ago.
- Meanwhile, in tandem with its Q2 results, smaller Chinese online travel firm eLong (NASDAQ:LONG) has announced the receipt of an $18/share offer from messaging/gaming giant Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) to buy all of the eLong shares not currently owned by Tencent, certain members of management, and "major shareholders" controlling at least 70% of all voting rights.
- Tencent owns 15% of eLong. In May, Ctrip spent $400M to take a 37.6% stake in eLong.
- CTRP -1.7% AH to $70.25. LONG +10.1% to $15.65.
- Ctrip: Q2 results, PR. eLong: Q2 results, PR.
Jul. 7, 2015, 10:42 AM
- The selloff in Chinese equities refuses to let up: Shanghai fell 1.3% overnight, Shenzhen fell 5.3%, and Hong Kong fell 2.7%. The declines come amid a backdrop of frantic government efforts to halt the plunge, and requests by hundreds of Chinese companies for trading halts.
- The lion's share of U.S.-traded Chinese Web and mobile firms are down at least 5%, and many are down more than twice that. In alphabetical order by ticker, major decliners include Autohome (ATHM -10.6%), Bitauto (BITA -18.7%), Baozun (BZUN -22.7%), ChinaCache (CCIH -14.6%), Cheetah Mobile (CMCM -15.2%), China Mobile Games (CMGE -13.2%), Ctrip (CTRP -10.1%), Changyou (CYOU -12.6%), Dangdang (DANG -13.8%), iDreamSky (DSKY -15.4%), E-House (EJ -15.9%), Jumei (JMEI -20.2%), Leju (LEJU -12.1%), eLong (LONG -12.6%), Momo (MOMO -9.4%), NQ Mobile (NQ -16.7%), NetEase (NTES -12.2%), Qihoo (QIHU -10.3%), Qunar (QUNR -14.2%), Renren (RENN -17.8%), SouFun (SFUN -16.3%), Sohu (SOHU -10.9%), Taomee (TAOM -15.1%), Vipshop (VIPS -9.7%), Weibo (WB -10.9%), 500.com (WBAI -26.2%), Wowo (WOWO -26.7%), 58.com (WUBA -17.3%), Xunlei (XNET -14%), Youku (YOKU -12.2%), and YY (YY -9.4%).
- The plunge seen over the last two months (aided by panic selling and margin calls?) has led multiples for U.S.-traded Chinese tech names to compress dramatically, with forward P/E and P/S ratios often below those of U.S. peers sporting similar growth profiles. The Guggenheim China Tech ETF (CQQQ -9.3%) is down 29% from a May peak of $45.64.
- ETFs: KWEB, QQQC, EMQQ
- Yesterday: Chinese tech stocks tumble again in spite of fresh government support
- Earlier today: Chinese phone firms decline as country's markets sink
- Update: The group pared its losses a bit in afternoon trading. CQQQ closed down 5.8%.
Jun. 17, 2015, 5:11 PM
- Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) plans to sell $1B worth of convertible senior notes due 2020 and 2025. Initial purchasers are expected to have a $150M overallotment option.
- The Chinese online travel leader plans to use most of the proceeds for "general corporate purposes, including a concurrent repurchase of its ADSs and potential note retirement from time to time." It had $1.9B in cash/short-term investments at the end of Q1, and $1.8B in debt.
- CTRP -1.9% AH to $74.00. The offering comes after archrival Qunar received a $500M investment and announced aggressive Q2 spending plans (particularly for offline marketing/mobile customer-acquisition).
Jun. 11, 2015, 10:36 AM
- Home Inns & Hotels Management (NASDAQ:HMIN) announces it received a go-private offer at $32.81 per U.S. ADR from a buyers group which includes BTG Hotels, Victory Investments, Ctrip.com (NASDAQ:CTRP), and the company's Co-Chairman of the Board. and a group of
- The buyers group already collectively owns 35% of the shares.
- HMIN +4.10% to $31.41.
- English version of Home Inns PR
- Previously: Trading halted on Home Inns & Hotels Management
Jun. 2, 2015, 10:11 AM
- Ctrip (CTRP -8%) is off sharply following news archrival Qunar (QUNR +2.1%) rejected a buyout offer, and (with the help of fresh capital) plans to significantly up its sales/marketing spend.
- While forecasting strong Q2 sales, Qunar also expects its op. margin to fall to -90% to -100% from Q1's -43.4%, largely on account of "stepped up discretionary expenditures to acquire new mobile users through offline channels." As it is, Qunar's sales/marketing spend rose 150.7% Y/Y in Q1 to $52.9M (equal to 49% of revenue).
- Stifel has downgraded Ctrip to Hold in response. "We believe this is a competitive action that Ctrip will respond to." Last year, Ctrip and Qunar saw their margins hurt by aggressive mobile promotions.
Jun. 2, 2015, 9:21 AM
Ctrip.com International Ltd. engages in the provision of travel-related services. It provides hotel accommodations, airline tickets, packaged tours, corporate travel management services, property management systems, and advertising services. The company was founded by Jian Zhang Liang, Min Fan,... More
Industry: Consumer Services
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