Tom Dorsey • 17 Comments
The Outsider • 50 Comments
Tim Plaehn • 46 Comments
Fri, Feb. 19, 10:49 AM
- Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT -9.9%) sinks to a 52-week low after Credit Suisse downgrades units to Neutral from Outperform with an $18 price target, cut from $32, following weak Q4 results.
- Credit Suisse says it applauds CLMT's desire to focus on its core specialties business and away from more commoditized pursuits, but adds it could be a long road ahead before CLMT finds its business on a more stable footing, with balance sheet and dividend path risks not entirely shared by other refiner MLP names.
- The firm is less optimistic generally about U.S. independent refiners, and cuts its price targets for CVR Refining (CVRR -5.9%) to $16 from $23, and for Alon USA Partners (ALDW -2.6%) to $21 from $31.
Thu, Feb. 18, 9:22 AM
Mar. 18, 2015, 3:24 PM
- Crude oil prices, in the doldrums yet again after U.S. inventories hit record highs for a 10th week and supplies at the futures' Cushing delivery hub hit a peak, turned around to finish higher following the Fed policy statement.
- Nymex crude rose 2.5% to settle at $44.66/bbl, pushing off earlier lows of $42.25 and the lowest intraday level since March 2009; Brent is up 4.5% at nearly $56.
- The gain could prove only a momentary recovery, however, as "speculation is going to grow about operational capacity being hit in Cushing and what that portends for prices,” according to Again Capital John Kilduff, adding that he sees U.S.crude testing $40 soon.
- U.S. refiners are enjoying big gains as the Brent/WTI spread surpasses $11: TSO +5.1%, CLMT +4.7%, CVI +4.8%, HFC +4.6%, MUR +4.5%, WNR +4.4%, VLO +3.9%, RDS.A +3.9%, CVRR +3.7%, MPC +3.3%, PSX +3.2%, ALJ +3.2%.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, UWTI, USL, DWTI, DNO, SZO, OLO, TWTI, OLEM
Jun. 25, 2014, 9:10 AM
Jun. 24, 2014, 5:38 PM
Jun. 24, 2014, 5:28 PM
- CVR Refining (CVRR) -4.8% AH after launching a public offering of 6M common units; CVRR anticipates granting the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 900K units.
- CVRR is offering all units on a primary basis, with proceeds used to redeem from CVR Refining Holdings a number of units equal to the number of units sold by CVRR in the offering.
Mar. 10, 2014, 12:31 PM
- Barron's touted high-yield energy plays CVR Refining (CVRR +4.6%) and Northern Tier Energy (NTI +0.9%) over the weekend as looking attractive on a long-term perspective after both currently go for just 6x this year's projected earnings.
- Wall Street analysts estimate NTI will pay out 44% of its unit price in total over three years through 2016; for CVRR, estimated payments over three years work out to 37% of its recent price.
- Average analyst price targets suggest 13% upside for NTI over the next year and 19% for CVRR; add that to projected yields this year of 15% for each, and the result is potential for returns of more than 30%.
Nov. 1, 2013, 12:34 PM
- CVR Energy (CVI -7.5%) is sharply lower after reporting a 79% decline in Q3 earnings, impacted by unprecedented downtime related to the Fluid Catalytic Cracking Unit outage at CVR Refining's (CVRR -11.8%) Coffeyville refinery (CVRR Q3 earnings).
- Also, crude differentials tightened in late August and crack spreads and product basis weakened during the quarter, further impacting results.
- Net income attributable to CVI stockholders was $44M, or $0.51/share, vs. $209M, or $2.41/share, last year.
Sep. 9, 2013, 2:23 PM
- Refiners (PXE, RYE, IOIL) are broadly underperforming the rest of the energy sector today after a Simmons downgrade to Neutral from Overweight, expecting continuing challenges to EPS and refining margins in Q3 and into 2014 after a dismal Q2.
- Individual stocks lowered by the firm: Marathon Petroleum (MPC -1.5%), Tesoro (TSO -0.6%), Delek US (DK -1.3%), Alon USA (ALJ -0.5%), CVR Energy (CVI -1.8%), CVR Partners (CVRR -1.2%).
- HollyFrontier (HFC -1.8%) breaks down to fresh multi-week lows after a downgrade from Morgan Stanley.
- Also, Barclays says at its Energy-Power conference that it believes most refiners will miss current consensus expectations by a wide margin, with Valero (VLO +0.7%) the exception (Briefing.com).
Jul. 29, 2013, 8:52 AM
- CVR Refining (CVRR) -4.3% premarket after updating its FY 2013 distribution outlook to $4.10-$4.80/unit.
- The updated outlook is primarily due to the decrease in the Group 3 2-1-1 crack spread, increased RINs expense, and an expected Q3 shutdown of the fluid catalytic cracking unit at its Coffeyville refinery.
- Sees upside guidance for Q2 revenues: $2.13B-$2.145B vs. $2.1B consensus.
- CVR Partners (UAN) updates FY 2013 distribution outlook to $1.80-$2.00/unit.
Jul. 12, 2013, 11:07 AM
Valero Energy (VLO +3.8%) has recouped early losses following a disappointing Q2 update and is making new highs for the day, as downside guidance apparently was priced in. Most refining peers also are higher: ALJ +3.7%, WNR +3.6%, HFC +3.5%, TSO +3.2%, CVI +2.9%, ALDW +2.6%, MPC +2.6%, PSX +2.5%, DK +1.8%, CVRR +1.7%, NTI +1.7%.| Jul. 12, 2013, 11:07 AM | 9 Comments
Jul. 10, 2013, 2:49 PM
It's another rough day for the big refinery stocks, whose margins are getting squeezed in the collapse in WTI-Brent spreads. Alon USA Energy (ALJ -9.1%) is hit especially hard after Barclays warns of a possible downside surprise in its upcoming earnings. Also: ALDW -5.9%, CVI -5.4%, CVRR -5%, TSO -4.5%, HFC -3.6%, PSX -3.3%, WNR -2.6%, MPC -2.6%, NTI -2.5%, DK -2.5%, VLO -2%.| Jul. 10, 2013, 2:49 PM | 4 Comments
Jul. 2, 2013, 2:58 PM
U.S. crude oil futures (USO, UCO) settle near $100/bbl as supply concerns due to geopolitical turmoil override fears about the global economy. Brent crude moves past $103, but the spread over WTI continues to narrow. Refiners continue to get slammed: CVRR -5.2%, ALJ -3.9%, PSX -3.4%, CVI -3.3%, WNR -3%, TSO -3%, CLMT -2.5%, VLO -2.4%, MPC -2.2%, DK -2.1%, NTI -2%, HFC -1.8%.| Jul. 2, 2013, 2:58 PM | 12 Comments
Jun. 10, 2013, 9:43 AMCVR Energy (CVI -1.5%) is cut to Sell from Neutral by Goldman Sachs, which says CVI shares appear to be discounting full credit for its target values for CVR Refining (UAN) and CVR Partners (CVRR), leaving little fundamental upside. Moreover, CVI is trading well above the combined market value of both UAN and CVRR adjusted for CVI’s ownership stake. | Jun. 10, 2013, 9:43 AM | 2 Comments
Apr. 3, 2013, 11:17 AMLooks like another bad day for refiners on fears of increased costs from tougher standards on gasoline, even as BAML says yesterday's selloff of Valero (VLO -4.8%) was overdone. WNR -7.6%, PSX -6.9%, MPC -6.2%, ALJ -6.1%, NTI -5.3%, TSO -4.7%, HFC -4.7%. CVR Refining (CVRR -1.5%) is lower even after announcing estimated costs to meet Tier 3 standards are less than $20M. | Apr. 3, 2013, 11:17 AM | 21 Comments
Mar. 13, 2013, 12:54 PMCredit Suisse grows more selective on MLPs, citing four whose valuations it thinks have grown excessive. El Paso Pipeline (EPB -1.9%) is cut to Neutral, as the firm sees decelerating distribution growth as drop-downs associated with the acquisition of El Paso Corp. by Kinder Morgan are absorbed. TLLP and EQM also are lowered, but CVR Refining (CVRR +1.9%) is raised to Outperform. | Mar. 13, 2013, 12:54 PM