Express Scripts Is A Better Investment Than CVS
Uncommon Profit Investor • 21 Comments
Uncommon Profit Investor • 21 Comments
Wed, Sep. 28, 9:19 AM
- Private equity firms aren't showing a great deal of interest in the 650 retail stores being unloaded by Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:WBA) in order to comply with the FTC's ruling on the Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) merger, reports New York Post. Many of the stores are seen as unprofitable investments.
- The lack of interest could pave the way for CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) to step in and buy stores selectively if the FTC and Walgreens back off the stated goal of finding a single buyer.
- The 650 units on the sales block only represent 5% of the total Walgreens-Rite Aid store count.
Thu, Sep. 22, 12:19 PM
Thu, Sep. 15, 9:02 AM
- Retail sales fell in August on a month-over-month comparison. The drop wasn't a large surprise considering the onslaught of warnings from the retail sector on store traffic.
- 8 out of the 13 retail categories showed negative growth during the month, with the largest drops recorded in the building material/garden equipment/supplies dealers and miscellaneous store retailers categories. The broad weakness turned on its head the argument that money freed up from a lower level of auto sales would be funneled into other consumer purchases.
- Food services and drinking places showed a +0.9% M/M and +5.8% Y/Y increase in a somewhat surprising result considering the harsh read from Black Box Intelligence on August same-store sales in the restaurant sector BITE. Is the discrepancy an indication that independent restaurants are taking market share?
- On a year-over-year basis, retail sales were up 1.9%. As expected the Amazon-influenced nonstore retailers category did the heavy lifting with an 11% gain. Larger U.S. retail chains (WMT, SPLS, TGT, BBY, DG, COST, KR, WBA, CVS, LOW, HD, SWY) have been raising the issue of pricing pressure in recent conference presentations and guidance updates which could be a nagging sales deflator for the balance of the year.
- Previously: Retail sales disappoint in August (Sept. 15)
- Retail ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, PBJ, IYK, FXD, IYC, RHS, FDIS, PEJ, FSTA, PSL, SCC, RCD, UCC, PEZ, PMR, PSCC, UGE, PSCD, SZK, BITE, CNDF, CNSF, IBUY, JHMC, JHMS.
Tue, Aug. 2, 10:03 AM
- CVS Health (CVS +3.8%) Q2 results: Revenues: $43,725M (+17.6%); Operating Income: $2,350M (+3.9%); Net Income: $924M (-27.4%); EPS: $0.86 (-23.2%); Non-GAAP EPS: $1.32 (+8.2%); Quick Assets: $1,207M (-52.6%); CF Ops: $4023M (+33.2%).
- Q3 Guidance: GAAP EPS: $1.38 - 1.41; Adjusted EPS: $1.55 - 1.58.
- 2016 Guidance: GAAP EPS: $4.92 - 5.00 from $5.24 - 5.39; Adjusted EPS: $5.81 - 5.89 from $5.73 - 5.88; CF Ops: $8.8B - 9.1B from $7.6B - 7.9B; FCF: $6.3B - 6.6B from $5.3B - 5.6B.
Tue, Aug. 2, 6:58 AM
Mon, Aug. 1, 5:30 PM
- ABC, ACCO, ADM, AET, AFSI, ALLT, ARW, AVP, BOFI, CAH, CARB, CEQP, CHH, CIE, CMI, CPPL, CSTM, CVS, DISCA, ECL, EIGI, EMR, ENOC, EPC, ETN, ETR, EXPD, FDP, GEO, GLT, GNRC, H, HCLP, HCN, HEP, HMC, HRS, HW, IDCC, IDXX, IIVI, IPI, IQNT, JLL, MLM, MMP, MNK, MOS, MZOR, NI, NJR, NNN, NRZ, NS, NWN, OZM, PBI, PFE, PG, PNW, RCL, RDC, RHP, SABR, SALE, SCAI, SHOO, SHPG, SODA, STX, SUI, TAP, TDC, VG, VSH, WCG, WNR, WNRL, XYL, ZEUS
Wed, Jul. 6, 1:12 PM
Sun, Jul. 3, 2:50 PM
- via Barclays:
- "Although stocks in the U.S. and Europe have partially bounced back from the sharp selloff sparked by the U.K. referendum result, risks remain prevalent. [Analyst] Keith Parker foresees further equity downside alongside a prolonged market bottoming process, during which positioning is likely to turn much more defensive at active managers.
- "With this in mind, our stock screen this week highlights Overweight-rated stocks that screen defensively based on sector and equity beta but are also expected to generate superior ROE and free cash flows in FY1.
- "Our screen considers the following factors: i) Large-cap (US $5 billion+) stock in the consumer staples, utilities, telecom or healthcare sectors. ii) Adjusted beta less than 1.0. iii) Rated Overweight by Barclays equity research. iv) 15%+ ROE and 4.5%+ FCF yield expected in FY1, based on Barclays estimates."
- The stocks: Aetna (NYSE:AET), BT Group plc (NYSE:BT), Cardinal Health (NYSE:CAH), Coloplast (OTC:CLPBF, OTCPK:CLPBY), CVS (NYSE:CVS), Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL), Express Scripts (NASDAQ:ESRX), Glanbia (OTC:GLAPF, OTCPK:GLAPY), Grifols (NASDAQ:GRFS), Imperial Brands (OTCQX:IMBBY, OTCQX:ITYBF), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Ahold (OTCQX:AHONY, OTCQX:AHODF, OTCQX:AHOND), LabCorp (NYSE:LH), Perrigo (NYSE:PRGO), Telus (NYSE:TU), Unilever (UL, UN), UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH)
- See full table here.
Mon, Jun. 27, 11:16 AM
- The outperformance of low-P/E stocks that marked H1 is behind us, says RBC's Jonathan Golub, and it's time for the "Stable Growers" to re-asset leadership. He cautions about putting money to work too quickly though, noting the pullback so far has been limited.
- His list of Stable Growers (page 1, page 2): CHD, CL, CVS, K, MO, PEP, PG, PM, BCR, BDX, DGX, DVA, HSIC, JNJ, LH, MDT, SYK, TMO, UNH, ZBH, AFL, AON, MMC, TMK, CTAS, DHR, HON, ITW, LMT, MMM, NLSN, RSG, RTN, UPS, VRSK, WM, XYL, CMCSA, MCD, OMC, ADP, APH, EMC, MA, T, VZ, ECL, PX
Fri, Jun. 24, 7:01 AM
- Cerner (NASDAQ:CERN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral with $65 (14% upside) price target by SunTrust Robinson.
- Catalent (NYSE:CTLT) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform with a $26 (midpoint)(10% upside) price target by Wells Fargo. Upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Bank of America.
- Centene (NYSE:CNC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight by Barclays. Price target raised to $82 (17% upside) from $76.
- Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:VRX) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight by JPMorgan. Price target lowered to $35 (57% upside) from $50.
- AveXis (NASDAQ:AVXS) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Jefferies. Price target lowered to $39 (3% downside risk) from $42.
- Surgical Care Affiliates (NASDAQ:SCAI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by JPMorgan. Price target maintained at $48 (3% upside).
- ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACAD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Bank of America.
- Express Scripts Holdings (NASDAQ:ESRX) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley. Price target raised to $70 (9% downside risk) from $67.
- Perrigo (NYSE:PRGO) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Argus Research.
- CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley. Price target lowered to $104 (11% upside) from $111.
Tue, May 3, 8:00 AM
- CVS Health (CVS +0.96%) Q1 results: Revenues: $43,215M (+18.9%); Operating Expense: $4,568M (+13.3%); Operating Income: $2,176M (+2.1%); Net Income: $1,146M (-6.1%); EPS: $1.04 (-2.8%); Non-GAAP EPS: $1.18 (+3.5%); Quick Assets: $1864M (-26.8%); CF Ops: $2,412M (21.6%).
- Q2 Guidance: GAAP EPS: $1.17 - 1.20; Adjusted EPS: $1.28 - 1.31.
- 2016 Guidance: GAAP EPS: $5.24 - 5.39 from $5.28 - 5.43; Adjusted EPS: $5.73 - 5.88; CF Ops: $7.6B - 7.9B; FCF: $5.3B - 5.6B.
Tue, May 3, 6:57 AM
Mon, May 2, 5:30 PM
- ABMD, ACW, ADM, AFSI, ALE, ALLT, AMAG, AMG, APLP, AROC, ARRY, ARW, AUDC, BBW, BCC, BCO, CARB, CEQP, CFX, CIE, CLX, CMI, COTY, CVLT, CVS, DUK, ECA, ECL, EIGI, EL, EMR, EXAS, FDP, FIS, FMS, FSS, FTR, GLDD, GLT, GRUB, H, HAL, HCA, HCN, HEP, HOT, HRS, HSIC, HW, KEM, KMT, LXRX, MNK, MNTA, MYL, NI, NTI, NWN, NXST, NYT, OZM, PBI, PFE, Q, RDWR, RHP, RRD, S, SALE, SALT, SGNT, SMG, SSH, TAP, TECH, TICC, VLO, VMC, VSH, WAC, WCG, WEC, WLK, WNR, WNRL, WWW, XYL
Fri, Apr. 29, 3:03 PM
- Low volatility stocks are besting the broader averages this year, with the SPLV up 3% and the USMV up 4% vs. the 0.7% advance for the S&P 500.
- While the consumer staples that make up much of the low vol names are expected to do well in the rocky times seen in 2016, at 21x earnings, they're getting pricey.
- Picking through individual names though, Barclays' Jonathan Glionna has come up with a list of low volatility names which can still be deemed not expensive.
- In consumer staples: AutoZone (NYSE:AZO), Darden (NYSE:DRI), Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC), Clorox (NYSE:CLX), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), CVS, Hormel (NYSE:HRL), J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM).
- In utilities: Entergy (NYSE:ETR), PG&E (NYSE:PCG), PPL.
Thu, Apr. 14, 1:36 PM
- Morgan Stanley identifies 30 stocks for investors to snap up and hold until 2019.
- The investment firm narrowed its list by focusing on strong brands/franchises with distinct competitive advantages, while also scoring strong on pricing power, cost efficiency, and growth.
- The MS list includes Accenture (NYSE:ACN), Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Blackstone Group (NYSE:BX),Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), CVS Health (NYSE:CVS), Danaher (NYSE:DHR), Dollar General (NYSE:DG), Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL), Facebook, First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC), HCA Holdings (NYSE:HCA), International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM), JPMorgan Chase, L Brands (NYSE:LB), Mettler-Toledo (NYSE:MTD), NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE), Nike (NYSE:NKE), Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA), Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM), Public Storage (NYSE:PSA), Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST), SBA Communications(NASDAQ:SBAC), ServiceMaster (NYSE:SERV), T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS), Visa (NYSE:V), WhiteWave Foods (NYSE:WWAV), and Zayo Group Holdings (NYSE:ZAYO).
Tue, Apr. 5, 10:28 AM
- First Data (NYSE:FDC): "Despite its favorable debt maturity schedule (nothing due until 2018) and modest interest rate sensitivity (only approximately 1/4 of debt is floating), FDC appears to have suffered collateral damage in the recent high-yield credit market carnage. Nonetheless, we remain encouraged by FDC's positioning within the payment-processing ecosystem and continue to believe the company is well positioned to benefit from the secular trend toward electronic payments."
- T-Mobile USA (NASDAQ:TMUS): "T-Mobile's improving cash generation coupled with ongoing subscriber momentum reinforces our outperform rating. The company appears on track for 20% EBITDA growth in 2016/17. We continue to believe TMUS's standalone story is attractive with M&A upside [long term]."
- HCA: "We are recommending shares of HCA given strong Q4 results, a robust outlook, improved Affordable Care Act enrollment trends, and an attractive valuation. HCA's Q4 beat and bullish FY2016 outlook, released on January 29, 2016, were far in excess of expectations. Nevertheless, the stock has re-traced only a portion of its post-Q3 losses. Besides the Q3 earnings challenges, the market remains concerned with the outlook for the ACA, balance sheet leverage and mixed competitor results, but those concerns appear overblown. The stock is now trading at just 7.1x '16E EBITDA, which is a discount to the company's/industry's historical averages of 7.6x/8.6x."
- Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE): Expedia is "our top long-term idea. The company is well positioned to gain online-travel share from its leading travel brands, solid management execution, and strategic deployment of capital. We believe the HomeAway acquisition is highly accretive, based on leveraging HomeAway's unique inventory with Expedia's online optimization capabilities. As a result, we forecast superior earnings growth that should result in significant shareholder value, in our view."
- FedEx (NYSE:FDX): "FedEx is lauded for its speed and service in its core FedEx Express segment, where it possesses the leading market share in 'express' parcel delivery in the U.S., as well as a strong position in its emerging FedEx Ground segment, both of which (particularly Ground) are benefiting from an e-commerce tailwind, which we estimate is driving formidable revenue growth in business-to-consumer. Anticipating a gradual economic recovery in the US/globally, we expect margin expansion via improved efficiencies and capital utilization, coupled with a realignment plan likely to meet/exceed targeting improved annual profitability of $1.65 billion by FY16."
- CVS: "The company continues to do well in the PBM (pharmacy benefit management) segment, taking new market share ($12.7 billion net new business) while integrating the newly acquired Omnicare and Target pharmacies. We believe that CVS's focus around building solutions that span the continuum of care will resonate well with clients. Near term, the continued strength in new PBM business and acquisition synergies will likely drive the upside. CVS's focus on delivering shareholder returns in multiple avenues - earnings growth, share buybacks and dividends, makes it very attractive, especially in this turbulent market."
- Fidelity National Information Services (NYSE:FIS): "The SunGard integration appears ahead of plan; we would not preclude upside synergies (i.e., above $200 million FY17 exit rate). FIS currently trades at approximately 14x our FY17E EPS, which we believe remains attractive."
- Coach (NYSE:COH): "With Creative Designer Stuart Vevers' influence on full-price channel for five quarters and impact on outlet at approximately 90% this [past holiday season], we are starting to see signs of stabilization of Coach brand in North America. All in all, at 17% operating margins (31% just two years ago) and early signs of brand inflection, COH is playing better offense, despite moderation in growth of overall handbag category, and likely stands to benefit from biggest competitor KORS slowing."
- WESCO (NYSE:WCC): "We believe WCC's hires into key strategic leadership positions in recent years support improved guidance rigor and represent a long-term investment in deeper organizational productivity potential across sales & marketing, supply chain, and IT (new CIO most recently). WCC remains positioned to drive long-term market share gains in the fragmented U.S. electrical distribution market in our view, as nonresidential and industrial capex markets recover. We note meaningful leverage to a sustained and more broad-based recovery and attractive long-term investment characteristics."
- Anthem (NYSE:ANTM): "Overall, while the Exchanges continue to cause shorter-term pressure, we think improvements to this business, along with the potential accretion from Cigna remain attractive long-term catalysts for the company. As a result, we maintain our Outperform rating."