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Sep. 30, 2013, 3:49 PM
- Corn (CORN -2.4%) and Soybeans (SOYB -3.2%) tumble - with corn hitting a 3-year low - after the USDA reports estimated corn stocks of 824M bushels, off 17% from a year ago, but far higher than trade estimates for 687M. Bean stocks are estimated at 141M bushels, also off 17% from a year ago, but 13% above estimates. Stocks still remain low, but these are old crop numbers, and forecasters are looking forward to a big crop this fall.
- Wheat (WEAT -2.7%) stocks of 1.85B bushels were slightly below expectations.
- Lower-than-expected feed usage and export demand were behind the big corn number - high prices had pig farmers substituting corn for wheat.
- Relevant grain ETFs: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA, JJG, GRU.
Aug. 12, 2013, 12:26 PM
- The grain pits party after the USDA lowers its corn production estimate to 13.76B bushels - still a whopper of a number, but off from 13.95B in July. Ending stocks are cut to 1.837B bushels.
- Bean production is cut to 3.255B bushels from 3.42B as acres planted are cut 500K and yield is lowered to 1.9 bushels/acre.
- No change is made to the wheat production estimate, but 25M bushels of extra exports cuts ending stocks by the same amount.
- December corn erases a sizable early loss, now up $0.15 to $4.69/bushel. CORN +1.5%.
- SOYB +3.4%, WEAT +0.3%.
- Grain ETFs: JJG +1.8%, GRU +2.5%.
- Other related: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Apr. 25, 2013, 3:19 PMThe flow of key farm products (DBA) to the world from North and South America, highlighted by congestion at Brazilian ports and limited selling of crops by U.S. farmers, will keep global grain supplies tight despite expectations for big harvests later this year, Bunge (BG +6.5%) says after its Q1 report showed a 16% jump in agribusiness sales to $10.77B. | Comment!
Jan. 11, 2013, 12:13 PMThe inaugural midday release of the USDA's January crop report doesn't disappoint, with corn reversing early losses and now sharply green as Dec. 1 stocks come in at 8.03B bushels vs. expectations of 8.21B. Ending stocks are estimated at a slim 602M bushels vs. expectations of 667M. Beans are down after production came in higher than expected. Wheat jumps on lower-than-anticipated planted acres. | Comment!
Dec. 21, 2012, 11:59 AMBrazil’s government go-ahead for Petrobras (PBR -3.6%) to raise its gasoline prices in early 2013 likely will raise demand for domestically produced sugar-based ethanol, but effects also could reach U.S. shores. Ethanol output in the U.S. is expected fall ~10% next year, and a robust export market could give Brazilian mills even more incentive to produce ethanol instead of sugar. | 4 Comments
Oct. 11, 2012, 9:16 AMGrains soar as the USDA lowers its estimate of corn ending stocks to 619M bushels from 733M in September. The cut comes even as it raises its forecast of harvested acres to 360K. What happens, asks Arlan Suderman, if the USDA is forced to cut harvested acres in its next report? Yikes. Corn +4%, Beans +2.1%, Wheat +1.5%. | 2 Comments
Sep. 28, 2012, 8:56 AMCorn soars 3% as the USDA announces stocks at just 988M bushels, the low end of the expected range. Prior to the report, corn had tumbled about $1/bushel over the past month. Wheat stocks also came in low, suggesting greater-than-expected feed use for both grains. Bean stocks beat expectations after the USDA "finds" another 38M bushels from last year's crop. Wheat +2%, Beans flat. | 1 Comment
Sep. 12, 2012, 8:51 AMCorn tumbles 2% as the USDA lowers its expected crop yield and harvest only marginally from last month's estimates. Also lowered were expected exports - to 1.25B bushels from the already low figure of 1.3B. As a result, new crop ending stocks are now estimated at 733M bushels, up from 650M. | 1 Comment
Aug. 21, 2012, 3:18 PM"For the first time in this rally, there is a feel of commercial panic," says a broker after a 2nd day of the Pro Farmer crop tour adds to worries over the security of physical grain supplies (day 1 report here). "You cannot load soybean futures in a ship and send to China (or) feed to chickens and hogs ... panic is in the physical ownership." Price records are falling everywhere. JJG +2.2%. | 8 Comments
Aug. 13, 2012, 4:32 PMChina plans to release corn and rice from state reserves to cool inflation and ease import needs. The amount isn't yet known, but is estimated to be around 2M tons (the country consumes 10-15M tons monthly). The grains were sharply lower today as traders mostly sell Friday's news of a short crop. Corn -2.2%, Beans -3.1%, Wheat -3.2%. | 1 Comment
Aug. 10, 2012, 2:46 PM
Aug. 10, 2012, 8:43 AMThe USDA's highly anticipated crop report pegs the corn harvest at 10.779B bushels, 150M less then expected. The yield of 123.4 bushels/acre (vs. 127.4 est.) is the lowest since 1995. Ending stocks are pegged at a tiny 650M bushels, down from 1.18B. Traders sell the news, Sept. corn flat now after being a dime higher before the report. | 1 Comment
Jul. 24, 2012, 12:29 PM
Jul. 19, 2012, 3:28 PMInteresting action in the Chicago pits today, where old crop (Sept) corn soared another $0.18 to a record $8.13, but new crop (Dec, March) fell, the spread between the two shooting higher late in the session. The divergence suggests at least some optimism for a reasonable crop to come in, no? CORN -2.3% as the action in the new crop months overwhelmed the record price move. | 5 Comments
Jul. 5, 2012, 11:19 AMIt's always a good idea to check the grains after July 4, and they're soaring again as no relief is in sight from the heat and drought. Adding fuel is the Ukraine, which lowered its corn crop estimate by 8% due to its own weather issues. A couple of headlines for the contrarians: "Corn is shining like gold," and "New dust bowl days on the horizon." CORN +2.5%, JJG +2.7%. | 2 Comments
DAG vs. ETF Alternatives
All of the PowerShares DB Agriculture ETNs are based on a total return version of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index–Optimum Yield Agriculture™ (the "Index"), which is designed to reflect the performance of certain corn, wheat, soybean and sugar futures contracts plus the returns from investing in 3 month United States Treasury bills.
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