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There are 2 articles on this stock available only to PRO subscribers.
- Tableau Software reported Q3 '14 earnings.
- The stock is a tentative buy after the recent rally.
- The original investment thesis supported investors picking the stock up on dips in anticipation of strong growth going forward.
Tableau: A Challenging 2015 And U.S. Market Dependency Cast A Shadow On Great Q3 Results
- Tableau reported record high revenues in Q3’14 and increased its guidance for Q4’14.
- Tableau provided a preliminary guidance for 2015 that suggests an increase in the operating loss next year.
- Revenue shift from the domestic market to the global market is disappointing and North America still accounts for 77% of the company's revenues.
- Business Intelligence is an attractive secular story with every company deluged with data.
- The major change in the Tableau Software story over the last year has been the wild price swings.
- Once the recent rally cools, the stock offers an attractive value with growth potential.
Tableau A Great Business Intelligence Company But Pricey
- Tableau is growing fast and expanding rapidly in the Business Intelligence industry.
- Business Intelligence spending is moving out of the IT department and into business divisions which requires easy to use software solutions.
- Focus on research and development spending should keep Tableau ahead of the competition.
- Despite a recent 38%, Tableau's stock is expensive based on revenue or profit valuation metrics.
After Shedding 38% From Its Stock Price, Tableau Still A Long-Term Buy
- Tableau reported Q2’14 financial results with record-high quarterly revenue, beating analysts’ EPS and revenues expectations.
- Tableau raised its 2014 revenues guidance to more than $20M, a level that reflects a 59% increase in revenues compared to 2013.
- Tableau’s high current ratio and the need to accelerate its global expansion increase the possibility for future acquisitions.
- Tableau stock price dropped 38% since February and the current price can be a good entry point for a long-term position.
- Is executing with its "land and expand" strategy.
- The company is overvalued at this juncture with a $5 billion market cap.
- Three catalysts could propel shares higher in the short-term.
- Patient investors may obtain shares at a lower price.
Thu, Nov. 6, 9:14 AM
- Gainers: PLNR +74%. PESI +24%. SWIR +20%. MEET +13%. RVLT +11%. COT +11%. DATA +11%. ACAS +10%. NDLS +9%. KATE +8%. KATE +8%. WFM +9%. HZNP +6%. CECO +6%. DRYS +5%. TRUE +5%.
- Losers: AEZS -51%. SZYM -47%. SNMX -26%. GNW -24%. WWWW -22%. CSOD -19%. PHMD -17%. GERN -14%. MCP -12%. GNRC -11%. WAC -9%. QCOM -7%. Z -7%. PBR -5%.
Wed, Nov. 5, 5:27 PM
- Tableau (NYSE:DATA) guides on its Q3 CC for Q4 revenue of $118M-$122M, above a $113.9M consensus. The company has also set an initial 2015 revenue growth forecast of 40%, above a 36.6% consensus.
- License revenue rose 66% Y/Y in Q3 to $69.8M (67% of total revenue). 2.5K customer accounts were added (up from Q2's 2.2K), and 200 $100K+ orders were closed (+27% Q/Q and +68% Y/Y).
- Given history, rival QLIK could move higher in sympathy.
- Q3 results, PR
Wed, Nov. 5, 4:04 PM
Tue, Nov. 4, 5:35 PM
- ABTL, ACAS, ACLS, ALNY, ALSK, ANDE, AR, AREX, ASH, ATO, ATSG, AVG, AWK, BALT, BCOR, BIOS, BKD, BREW, BWC, CBS, CDE, CF, CLR, CODI, CPE, CSOD, CTL, CVG, CXO, DATA, DEPO, DK, DPM, DRYS, DVR, DYN, ECOL, ECYT, EFC, ENS, ENSG, ETE, ETP, EXAR, EXXI, FMI, FNV, G, GNW, GPOR, GSM, HOLX, HTCH, IL, INWK, IO, JCOM, KGC, KW, LBTYA, LHCG, LPSN, MBI, MCHX, MCP, MDR, MDWD, MED, MHLD, MIDD, MRIN, MTDR, MTRX, MUSA, MWE, NDLS, NLY, NVAX, NWSA, OILT, ORA, ORIG, OSUR, PAA, PLNR, PMT, PODD, POWR, PPO, PRGN, PRU, PTC, QCOM, QEP, QUAD, RGP, RNDY, RUTH, SB, SBY, SCTY, SD, SKUL, SLF, SSNI, SSRI, STMP, SUSP, SWIR, SWM, SXL, SYMC, SZYM, TCAP, TEAR, TEG, TERP, THOR, TNGO, TPC, TRAK, TROX, TRUE, TS, TSLA, TSRO, TTEC, TXTR, UHAL, VVUS, WBMD, WFM, WMC, WMGI, WR, WTI, WWWW, XPO, Z
Wed, Oct. 22, 1:22 PM
- Enterprise software vendors are having a rough day after VMware (VMW -5.6%) provided light Q4 guidance to go with a Q3 beat.
- On its CC (transcript), VMware also reported its bookings fell Q/Q in Q3. They were hurt by Russian and German softness, and a failure to close a major enterprise license agreement (ELA) with a federal client. ELAs made up 29% of Q3 bookings, down from 37% in Q2.
- Rivals Oracle (ORCL -1.5%), Red Hat (RHT -3.3%), and Citrix (CTXS -1.5%) are among the decliners, as are Splunk (SPLK -4.7%), Tableau (DATA -2.8%), Qlik (QLIK -2.5%), and MicroStrategy (MSTR -0.9%). Oracle provided light guidance last month.
- Several enterprise cloud software stocks are also selling off: N -2.5%. VEEV -2.9%. ZEN -4.2%. CSOD -2.3%. SAAS -3.2%. NOW -1.7%.
- Nomura and Raymond James have downgraded VMware. Nomura thinks 2015 guidance (expected in January) will also be light, and believes slow vSphere server virtualization growth (affected by competition and high penetration rates) will remain a headwind, given it's still over half of VMware's business. "Growth has to come from the vCloud Suite ... other newer products are just too small still to matter."
- Some of those "other newer products" are doing well: VMware's end-user computing license bookings (boosted by the AirWatch acquisition) rose over 60% Y/Y in Q3, and its much-hyped NSX software-defined networking platform now has 250+ paying customers (up from just 100 a few months ago).
- A slew of enterprise tech names sold off on Monday in response to IBM's Q3 report. Big Blue's software sales fell 2% Y/Y in Q3, after rising 1% in Q2. CA, Citrix, and ServiceNow report after the bell.
Mon, Oct. 13, 11:37 AM
- Salesforce's (CRM -1.2%) anticipated Wave cloud analytics/business intelligence software platform is being unveiled today at the company's annual Dreamforce conference. Launch partners include Accenture, Cognizant, Dell, and Informatica.
- Much like Tableau (DATA -2.8%) and Qlik (QLIK -0.7%), Salesforce is trying to differentiate its BI offering by providing a UI that allows data to be easily manipulated and visualized by non-IT personnel. A Salesforce exec: "[Wave] can't be about rows and columns. We wanted everyone to feel good using product and interact with it." Another suggests video games served as an inspiration.
- Also talked up by Salesforce: Wave's mobile-first design (an iOS app launches tomorrow); its advanced search features (enabled by the EdgeSpring acquisition); and its ability to easily integrate with many data sources. Tableau also emphasizes easy data integration.
- Salesforce plans to charge $125/user/month for an Explorer edition of Wave, and $250/user/month for a Builder edition (supports imported datasets). In addition to Tableau and Qlik, Salesforce will be be squaring off against traditional BI vendors such as IBM, SAP, Oracle, MicroStrategy (MSTR -0.6%), and Actuate (BIRT +0.9%).
- Forbes' Ben Kepes: "Rather than true business intelligence, Wave seems to be, at this iteration at least, a graphical tool for displaying business data in engaging ways ... Many existing Salesforce customers frankly don’t need a true analytics offering but rather a more in-depth visualization tool than they currently have from Salesforce." He cautions some technical knowledge about database labels is still needed to use the product.
- Tableau is selling off today, but has bounced from its intraday lows.
Mon, Oct. 6, 10:00 AM
- Morgan Stanley's Keith Weiss has upgraded Splunk (SPLK +4.5%) and Tableau (DATA +6.7%) to Overweight, and downgraded Tableau rival Qlik (QLIK -2.9%) to Equal-weight.
- Weiss: "As a 'Big Data pure play, Splunk benefits from strong secular tailwinds and significant market momentum." He highlights the machine data analytics software firm's FQ2 growth acceleration, and thinks its user conference (starts today) could act as a fresh catalyst. CFO Dave Conte will be hosting a talk with investors/analysts at the conference tomorrow at 2:15PM ET.
- Regarding Tableau, Weiss predicts the analytics/data visualization upstart's "with a large market opportunity, expanding distribution capacity and strong execution" will yield "plenty of runway" for growth. He thinks a bull case of 50%+ and 100%+ annual sales and free cash flow growth, respectively, is quite achievable.
- As for Qlik, Weiss admits the pending launch of Qlik Sense (previous) is an opportunity, but is concerned about execution, as well as the need for higher sales/marketing spend to support the Sense ramp. As it is, sales/marketing spend has outpaced revenue growth for several years.
Mon, Sep. 29, 12:57 PM
- Analytics/data visualization software vendors Tableau (DATA +2.6%) and Qlik (QLIK +1.5%) are up after rival Tibco agreed to sell itself to P-E firm Vista Equity for $3.4B (a 26% premium to where shares traded before a Wednesday M&A report arrived).
- Data warehousing software firm Informatica (INFA +3.8%) is also higher. Its gains come even though peer Teradata has slipped due to bearish coverage from Monness Crespi.
- Qlik and (especially) Tableau trade at higher multiples than Tibco. Both companies have also been growing faster.
Tue, Sep. 16, 1:01 PM
- "Tableau's (DATA +2.6%) valuation relative to its potential revenue growth [is] compelling," says analyst Phil Winslow, upgrading to Outperform and lifting the price target to $100 from $87.50. Trading at an enterprise value to revenue ratio of 10.2x, Tableau isn't cheap, concedes Winslow, but is only just above its historical average.
- Tableau, says Winslow, should be able to expand the market for business intelligence tools to small and medium enterprises, as well as grow within the enterprise customer base. He's also sees potential in international sales as Tableau gets just 23% of revenue from outside North America vs. the industry grabbing 53% of revenue overseas.
Fri, Aug. 29, 1:23 PM
- A 33% FQ2 price cut for the Splunk Cloud machine data analytics platform (Amazon price cuts were passed on) appears to be paying off, says CLSA after taking stock of Splunk's (SPLK +19.4%) FQ2 beat and strong guidance. The firm thinks the cuts, along with the launch of an online sandbox for prospective buyers led to "an influx" of new entry-level clients in FQ2.
- Cowen likes the fact term licenses (as opposed to perpetual licenses) made up 37% of license bookings, much better than the firm's 25% forecast and "indicative of an even stronger quarter than it initially appears." Pac Crest is pleased with CC remarks (transcript) about improving sales productivity (a recent concern) and strong government orders.
- Morgan Stanley likes Splunk's top-line and customer growth, but remains worried about competition (rival Sumo Logic has been claiming strong growth) and notes management has hinted at further price cuts.
- Analytics/data visualization software vendors Tableau (DATA +6.3%) and Qlik (QLIK +1.9%) are following Splunk higher.
- Prior Splunk earnings coverage
Thu, Jul. 31, 7:04 PM
- Tableau (NYSE:DATA) guides on its Q2 CC for Q3 revenue of Q3 revenue of $90M-$94M and 2014 revenue of $366M-$372M, above consensus estimates of $87.6M and $353.3M. Shares +2% AH. (Q2 results, PR)
- Imperva (NYSE:IMPV) expects Q3 revenue of $38M-$41M and EPS of -$0.25 to -$0.33 vs. a consensus of $39.5M and -$0.28. But full-year guidance is for revenue of $155.5M-$162.5M and EPS of -$0.83 to -$1.06, above a consensus of $153.7M and -$1.14. Shares +15% AH after crashing earlier this year. (Q2 results, PR)
- Immersion (NASDAQ:IMMR) expects 2014 revenue of $51M-$56M, below a $58.5M consensus. The company blames the "timing of new agreements and the pace of certain negotiations," including renewal talks with LG. Shares -6.6% AH. (Q2 results, PR)
- Control4 (NASDAQ:CTRL) expects Q3 revenue of $38M-$40M and EPS of $0.12-$0.16 vs. a consensus of $39.8M and $0.14. Full-year guidance is for revenue of $148M-$152M, mostly below a $151.7M consensus. Shares -11.9% AH. (Q2 results, PR)
Thu, Jul. 31, 4:06 PM
Wed, Jul. 30, 5:35 PM
- ABCO, ABTL, ACGL, ADNC, ADUS, AFFX, AHS, AIV, ARRS, ASH, AVD, AXTI, BAGL, BBG, BBRG, BEAT, BRKS, BYD, CALD, CERS, CPSI, CPT, CTRL, CYH, DATA, DCT, DGI, DVA, DXPE, EEP, EGO, EIX, ELLI, ESIO, EXEL, EXPE, FLDM, FLR, FLT, FNGN, G, GDOT, GFIG, GPRO, HME, HNSN, IMMR, IMPV, JIVE, JLL, KEYW, KOG, KRG, LNKD, LOPE, LRE, LYV, MATX, MCHP, MHK, MRC, MXL, MXWL, NGVC, NKTR, NU, OIS, OMCL, ONNN, OUTR, PCCC, PCYC, PKI, PMCS, PSA, PXLW, RMD, RMTI, SGEN, SKUL, SPF, SPWR, SREV, SSNC, STAA, SWIR, SWN, SYNA, THG, TNAV, TRLA, TSLA, TSYS, VCRA, WU, WWWW, YRCW
Fri, Jul. 25, 1:07 PM
- With QLIK down 38% from its Sep. '13 high going into earnings, its Q2 beat and solid revenue guidance has been well-received.
- The BI/analytics software vendor expects Q3 revenue of $122M-$126M and EPS of -$0.02 to $0.01 vs. a consensus of $123.3M and $0.04. Full-year guidance is for revenue of $545M-$555M and EPS of $0.23-$0.27 vs. a consensus of $547.8M and $0.25.
- Also going over well: License revenue rose 11% Y/Y in Q2 to $66.9M (51% of total revenue), after having grown just 2% in Q1. GAAP opex rose 17% to $119.8M.
- Fast-growing rival Tableau (NYSE:DATA) is following Qlik higher on a down day for equities. On its CC (transcript), Qlik noted it plans to launch a server-based version of its Qlik Sense self-serve data visualization software in September. Sense, a part of the QlikView.Next BI/analytics platform (previous), will compete against Tableau's popular data visualization tools.
- Qlik argues Sense complements its traditional QlikView BI software, which it deems better for guided analytics. Nonetheless, some analysts have raised concerns about the impact Sense could have on QlikView sales.
- Q2 results, PR
Mon, Jul. 21, 11:54 AM
- Barclays has upgraded Qlik (QLIK +2.2%) to Overweight ahead of Thursday's Q2 report. The firm expects the 2H14 launch of the next-gen QlikView.Next business intelligence/analytics software platform to drive upside.
- Morgan Stanley is also out with a bullish note that cites QlikView.Next as a catalyst, and declares
- Qlik has asserted QlikView.Next will act as "a complete technology platform surrounded by an ecosystem of people, services, and applications that reinvents BI," rather than simply a BI/analytics tool. The company has also promised the software will make it easier for users to detect data patterns and compare info, and to perform advanced queries.
- Many of QlikView.Next's features appear aimed at Tableau (DATA +0.8%), which posted 83% Y/Y Q1 license revenue growth and has been rapidly adding enterprise clients. Tableau's analytics/data visualization software is often praised for its simplicity, which has allowed it to replace Excel as the analytics tool of choice for many non-technical users.
- BMO offered a more cautious take on Qlik on Friday: Though noting Qlik is a BI pioneer and has high customer loyalty, the firm is concerned about the impact of dual pricing and product models, and thinks customers could delay purchases ahead of QlikView.Next's launch.
Tue, Jul. 8, 12:45 PM
- Echoes of April: Following a big May/June rally that propelled the Nasdaq to new post-Dot.com bubble highs, momentum stocks are nosediving nearly across the board today.
- The selloff comes ahead of Alcoa's afternoon Q2 report, the unofficial start of earnings season. Some of the cash going out of equities is flowing into Treasurys.
- Notable 6%+ decliners: TWTR -7.6%. DDD -6.5%. SSYS -7.9%. P -7.7%. LNKD -7.1%. DATA -10.1%. SPLK -9.3%. WDAY -7.7%. YELP -8.3%. GOGO -6.5%. YOKU -6.6%. ZU -10.5%. NOW -6.8%.
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