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Mon, Jan. 25, 10:34 AM
- Citing Asian weakness and forex swings, Jefferies' Jason North has respectively cut his Stratasys (SSYS -4.6%) and 3D Systems (DDD -2%) targets by $7 and $3.50 to $30 and $7.50, while also lowering 2016 estimates. Stratasys remains rated a Buy, and 3D a Hold.
- Stratasys and 3D are both expected to deliver Q4 reports in the coming weeks. North's cuts come six days after Piper's Troy Jensen reported (citing checks with 3D printing resellers) printer demand remained soft in Q4, as prototyping clients continued digesting excess capacity. However, Jensen (cautious for some time about demand) added industry contacts suggest demand is starting to improve, and that pipelines are strong going into 2016.
- Stratasys now trades for just 1.2x a 2016 sales consensus of $720.3M. Likewise, 3D trades for 1.2x a 2016 sales consensus of $660.3M.
Fri, Jan. 22, 3:30 PM
- Plenty of tech names crushed over the first 20 days or so of January are sharply higher as the Nasdaq (up 2.4%) continues rebounding from Wednesday's intraday lows. Many still have sizable YTD losses.
- Big gainers among telecom equipment/component firms: Optical component vendors Oclaro (OCLR +9.5%) and NeoPhotonics (NPTN +6%), mobile infrastructure/services giant Ericsson (ERIC +6.2%), optical networking hardware vendor Infinera (INFN +5.2%), and microcap RF backhaul hardware firms DragonWave (DRWI +24.3%) and Ceragon (CRNT +10%). Ericsson underperformed yesterday following a pre-earnings Goldman downgrade.
- Among enterprise tech firms: Threat-prevention technology and services provider FireEye (FEYE +7.7%), big data software provider Hortonworks (HDP +16.1%), security software/services firm Rapid7 (RPD +9.1%), data governance software firm Varonis (VRNS +5.6%), and flash storage array vendor Violin Memory (VMEM +13.6%). FireEye fell slightly yesterday after making a Q4 pre-announcement and announcing a $200M+ acquisition. Hortonworks was crushed on Tuesday after a Q4 pre-announcement and stock offering shelf registration.
- Among chip industry firms: RF chipmaker Skyworks (SWKS +6%), audio codec developer Cirrus Logic (CRUS +7.3%), smart TV/home automation chipmaker Sigma Designs (SIGM +6.5%), FPGA/sensor hub maker QuickLogic (QUIK +9.2%), and chip equipment firms Axcelis (ACLS +4.9%) and Aixtron (AIXG +4.9%). Major Cirrus/Skyworks client Apple reports on Tuesday afternoon.
- Also up big: 3D printer maker 3D Systems (DDD +7.1%), Russian search leader Yandex (YNDX +7.5%), mortgage origination software firm Ellie Mae (ELLI +6.4%), Chinese solar firm Yingli (YGE +11.4%), and SMB Web services provider Wix.com (WIX +5.3%).
- Previously covered: Rosetta Stone, Live Ventures, HP Enterprise, Mitel, Mobileye, Qorvo, SunPower, SolarCity
Wed, Jan. 20, 9:13 AM
Fri, Jan. 15, 2:53 PM
- In Wall Street's latest bloodletting, the Nasdaq is down 3.1% and the S&P 2.4%. The decline comes amid tumbling energy prices (crude is below $30/barrel), soft macro data, and disappointing earnings reports from the likes of Intel and Citigroup.
- Tech companies seeing outsized losses amid the carnage include chipmakers NXP (NXPI -8.1%), Qorvo (QRVO -8.9%), InvenSense (INVN -3.7%), IDT (IDTI -6.4%), Sigma Designs (SIGM -6.5%), and Knowles (KN -6.6%), as well as solar plays Trina (TSL -9.3%), ReneSola (SOL -11.5%), JinkoSolar (JKS -10.7%), Enphase (ENPH -8.5%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -8.4%).
- Also off sharply: Action camera leader GoPro (GPRO -8.7%), 3D printer maker 3D Systems (DDD -7.5%), daily deals leader Groupon (GRPN -6.4%), server interconnect provider Mellanox (MLNX -8.5%), OLED materials/IP provider Universal Display (OLED -10.3%), Latin American online marketplace MercadoLibre (MELI -7.2%), data management software firm Varonis (VRNS -8.3%), ad tech firm Rocket Fuel (FUEL -7.1%), Chinese online retailers Vipshop (VIPS -6.9%) and Jumei (JMEI -12.7%), and home automation system provider Control4 (CTRL -7.8%).
- GoPro is down 22% since issuing a Q4 warning on Wednesday afternoon. Trina has been downgraded to Neutral by Goldman. IDT and Mellanox could be affected by the weaker-than-expected Q4 sales reported for Intel's server CPU division (DCG).
- Previously covered: Chip equipment makers, Yandex/Qiwi, Intel, Textura, PC industry firms, Rackspace, CommVault, Ericsson
- Wednesday's notable decliners
Mon, Jan. 11, 12:57 PM
- Investors continue throwing in the towel on former tech high-flyers: Micron (MU -6.3%), GoPro (GPRO -4.4%), Fitbit (FIT -12.3%), 3D Systems (DDD -3.7%), Rackspace (RAX -6.7%), and Etsy (ETSY -8.8%) have each fallen to new 52-week lows on a day the Nasdaq is down 0.6%.
- FireEye, which received cautious notes from Wedbush and Piper, is also selling off. As is ExOne (XONE -11.6%). Margin calls and/or fund liquidations could be contributing to the rout.
- Etsy's losses come amid a lockup expiration. Possibly weighing on Rackspace: A Piper CIO survey indicating Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure continue gaining cloud infrastructure (IaaS) mindshare; the firm sees AWS/Azure having a duopoly, with Google, Rackspace, and IBM trailing.
- Fitbit is now down 35% since Jan. 5, when the company's Blaze smartwatch was unveiled at CES. Shares go for 17x a 2016 EPS consensus of $1.13. GoPro and Micron now respectively trade for 14x and 8x their 2016 and FY17 (ends Aug. '17) consensus EPS estimates.
- Update: Likely weighing on ExOne: The company has struck deals for at-the-market stock offerings worth up to $50M.
Mon, Jan. 4, 12:40 PM
Mon, Jan. 4, 12:13 PM
- The Nasdaq is down 2.8% and the S&P 2.3%, but someone forgot to tell beaten-down 3D Systems (NYSE:DDD) and Stratasys (NASDAQ:SSYS), which are both rallying on healthy volume. 3D has already seen 3.46M shares traded, topping a 3-month daily average of 3.11M.
- 3D's gains come in spite of a Saturday Barron's column that highlights the views of William Blair's Brian Drab (Underperform rating), who thinks shares could fall as low as $3 (their tangible book value). Barron's also notes 3D's recent consumer exit, suggests the company's CEO search adds uncertainty, and declares the company to have "substantial competition" in industrial 3D printing.
- Drab is only a little more positive on Stratasys, which he maintains a Market Perform rating for. "You get the sense they underestimate the competition and overestimate the market potential. That isn’t a good combination."
- Separately, 3D has unveiled the ProX DMP 320, a direct metal printer said to be optimized for "critical applications requiring complex, chemically-pure titanium, stainless steel or nickel super alloy parts." The 320 sports a 275mm x 275mm x 420mm build volume, and comes in configurations respectively optimized for titanium and stainless steel/nickel alloys. It will be shown off at CES (runs from Jan. 6-9).
Dec. 30, 2015, 1:32 PM
- 3D Systems (DDD -3.4%) is now down 16% since announcing on Monday it's discontinuing its consumer-focused Cube 3D printer and Cubify.com site. Shares are less than $0.40 above a multi-year low of $8.44 (set on Nov. 12/13), and trade for just 1.5x a 2016 sales consensus of $666.5M.
- Needham's James Ricchiuti has cut his 3D target by $1 to $14 today, while reiterating a Buy. He thinks the consumer exit will likely be followed by "cost actions in other speculative areas of 3D printing and adjacent markets."
- 3D's scanner ops, its Gentle Giant Studios collectibles business, and the company's culinary efforts are seen as possible targets. "We regard these initiatives as constructive and indicative of management’s commitment to improve earnings over the next year."
Dec. 28, 2015, 3:57 PM
- Stratasys (SSYS -6.1%), ExOne (XONE -8.1%), and Voxeljet (VJET -6.2%) joined 3D Systems (DDD -9.4%) in selling off today after 3D announced it's exiting the consumer 3D printing space and discontinuing its $999 Cube 3D printer.
- The consumer 3D printing market has been slower to take off than many bulls once hoped, and has seen a slew of startups enter the field. Stratasys has taken multiple charges on its MakerBot unit, whose printers are priced from $1,375-$6,499 and target consumers, enthusiasts, and SMBs.
- Today's declines come five days after 3D printer makers rallied strongly in pre-Christmas trading.
- Update: Citi's Kenneth Wong thinks 3D's exit, along with the sales estimate it provided for its consumer business (~2% of total revenue), doesn't reflect well on the market. "First, the numbers reveal a much smaller consumer end market than many were led to believe given the considerable investments made in this segment. We believe this point will also be viewed negatively as it relates to Stratasys’ Makerbot business as it paints a less favorable picture of a market rebound. Second, investors were likely hoping for deeper cuts to the Cube line than simply exiting “only” ~20% of the reported “Consumer” business line."
Dec. 28, 2015, 9:11 AM
- As part of an effort to "focus its resources and strategic initiatives on near-term opportunities and profitability," 3D Systems (NYSE:DDD) is ending support for its consumer/enthusiast-focused Cube 3D printer ($999 MSRP). The Cubify.com site/marketplace, which sells Cube printers, related supplies, and 3D-printed items, will be closed on Jan. 31, as will retail products created by 3D and sold on Cubify.com.
- The $2,799, professional-focused, CubePro printer will continue being supported. 3D expects its "shift away from consumer products" to have less than a 2% impact on revenue, to improve its bottom line, and to result in a $19M-$25M Q4 charge.
- 3D has faced competition in the consumer/enthusiast segment, which hasn't taken off as rapidly as some hoped, from Stratasys' MakerBot unit (has also had a rough time lately) and a slew of startups. News of its exit move comes less than two months after the company said it would take "decisive steps to reduce our cost structure and better prioritize our resources around near-term opportunities."
- DDD -0.9% premarket to $10.41.
Dec. 23, 2015, 1:45 PM
- 3D Systems (DDD +3.3%), Stratasys (SSYS +4.6%), ExOne (XONE +7.3%), and Voxeljet (VJET +8%) are among the tech standouts on a day the Nasdaq is up 0.7%, and the S&P 0.9%. Given still-high short interests, end-of-year short-covering is likely helping.
- The group is nearing the end of a brutal 2015. YTD performances: DDD -68%. SSYS -68%. XONE -27%. VJET -38%. 3D Systems, Stratasys, ExOne, and Voxeljet now respectively trade for 1.8x, 1.9x, 3.4x, and 2.8x their 2016 sales consensus estimates.
- 3D and Stratasys rallied last week after 3D caught an upgrade to Overweight from Stephens, which reported checks pointed to subdued but not terminal demand.
Dec. 17, 2015, 9:25 AM
- Believing expectations have fallen enough for the company's restructuring to drive better-than-expected 2017 results, Stephens' Ben Hearnsberger has upgraded beaten-down 3D Systems (NYSE:DDD) to Overweight. His target remains $12.
- Hearnsberger also notes 32% of the float is shorted, and states checks indicate demand is subdued but not terminal. The upgrade comes less than two months after CEO Avi Reichental resigned. Shortly after that, 3D announced (along with a Q3 miss) it's "taking decisive steps to reduce our cost structure and better prioritize our resources around near-term opportunities."
- Shares have risen to $9.78 premarket. They're still down 70% YTD, and trade for just 1.6x a 2016 sales consensus of $672.4M.
Nov. 25, 2015, 12:30 PM
- 3D Systems (DDD +5.8%), Stratasys (SSYS +5.1%), Voxeljet (VJET +4.6%), and (especially) ExOne (XONE +16.6%) are up strongly on a day the Nasdaq is up 0.4%.
- Profit-taking from shorts is likely helping out: 3D had 34.1M shares (32% of its float) shorted as of Oct. 30. Stratasys had 12.4M shares (25% of its float) shorted, ExOne 2.5M shares (26% of its float), and Voxeljet 1.3M shares (10% of its float).
- ExOne's gains come less than three weeks after shares plunged on account of a Q3 miss and full-year guidance cut.
Nov. 11, 2015, 1:46 PM
- Markets continue to become more risk-averse towards two once-high-flying industries: Solar stocks are adding to the Tuesday losses seen following SunEdison and Canadian Solar's earnings (TAN -2.5%), and 3D printing stocks are taking another leg lower after dropping yesterday in the wake of ExOne's results/guidance. The Nasdaq and S&P are nearly flat.
- Solar decliners: SunEdison (SUNE -15.7%), SolarCity (SCTY -3.9%), SunPower (SPWR -3.5%), SolarEdge (SEDG -13.1%), Vivint (VSLR -10.8%), TerraForm Power (TERP -4%), TerraForm Global (GLBL -4.6%), Sunrun (RUN -2.9%), and 8point3 Energy (CAFD -4.4%). SunEdison, SolarCity, SolarEdge, and TerraForm Power have made new 52-week lows.
- 3D printing decliners: 3D Systems (DDD -6.1%), Stratasys (SSYS -4.7%), ExOne (XONE -5.6%), and Voxeljet (VJET -3.9%). 3D and Stratasys have made new 52-week lows.
- UBS has cut its SunEdison target by $3 to $6. Among other things, it attributes SunEdison's post-earning nosedive to lower-than-expected margins on retained projects, management's plans to push ahead with the Vivint acquisition, and LAP Holdings' plans to seek at least $150M in damages following SunEdison's cancelled acquisition of the company.
- RBC (target cut by $4 to $20) has joined the ranks of firms defending SunEdison (previous), arguing its recent decisions to cut project construction guidance, lower spending, and sell a greater portion of its projects to third parties make sense. It sees the company "progressing towards sustainable growth," while cautioning shares will remain volatile in the near-term. SunEdison is down 34% over the last two days.
Nov. 10, 2015, 12:05 PM
- 3D Systems (DDD -3.2%), Stratasys (SSYS -5.4%), and Voxeljet (VJET -5.3%) are selling off once more after ExOne (down 22%) badly missed Q3 estimates and cut its full-year revenue guidance to $40M from $58M-$60M.
- The industrial 3D printer maker blamed long sales for production machines relative to prototyping machines, and said it's seeing "increasing difficulties in our ability to forecast the time cycle from order placement to customer acceptance." 3D and Stratasys have reported being pressured by excess industry capacity following heavy 2013/2014 spending.
- Stratasys is adding to the Monday losses seen following a Deutsche downgrade; 3D has fallen below $10, and made new multi-year lows. 3D and Stratasys popped last week after markets declared their results/guidance to be better than feared.
Nov. 4, 2015, 10:33 AM
- After opening lower in response to their Q3 reports, 3D Systems (DDD +18.5%) and Stratasys (SSYS +8.6%) have quickly changed direction, as investors decide (for now, at least) enough bad news is priced in. 3D printing peers ExOne (XONE +2%) and Voxeljet (VJET +6%) are also rallying.
- Profit-taking by shorts is likely helping: 3D had 33.8M shares (32% of its float) shorted as of Oct. 15, and Stratasys 12.8M shares (26% of its float). ExOne had 2.6M shares (28% of its float) shorted, and Voxeljet 1.3M shares (10% of its float).
- Earlier: 3D Systems, Stratasys lower after posting Q3 results, hinting at job cuts
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