Mon, Oct. 17, 1:02 PM
- Investors appear to be a little edgy about the chain store sector with the earnings season just starting to ramp up.
- Dillard's (DDS -4.3%) and Bon-Ton Stores (BONT -5%) are down significantly, while Kohl's (KSS -1.3%), Big Lots (BIG -0.7%), Fred's (FRED -1.6%), Target (TGT -1.2%), Five Below (FIVE -2.6%), Pier 1 Imports (PIR -5.3%), and Barnes & Noble Education (BNED -2.4%) are all tracking below broad market averages.
- There isn't a lot of consensus about what's been holding back U.S. consumers. Today, higher gas prices is being floated around as a factor, while last week it was election anxiety.
- 12-month chart of gas prices in the U.S. via GasBuddy.
- Previously: Retail sales track higher as expected (Oct. 14)
- Previously: Winners and losers from the retail sales report (Oct. 14)
- ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXD, FDIS, RCD, PMR, CNDF, FTXD, JHMC.
Fri, Oct. 14, 9:05 AM
- Retail sales increased 2.7% Y/Y and 0.6% M/M in September on broad gains across categories. The sales totals for August were also nudged slightly higher.
- Sales from nonstore retailers like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) were up 10.6% Y/Y to once again account for a higher percentage of overall sales.
- The building material & garden equipment category showed a 1.4% M/M and 5.6% Y/Y gain which bodes well for Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe's (NYSE:LOW).
- Department stores (DDS, SHLD, JCP, M, JWN) lagged again as sales fell 0.7% M/M and 6.4% Y/Y, while furniture and home furnishing stores (HVT, WSM, KIRK, RH, BBBY) outpaced the broad averages in the sector.
- Restaurant sales (NASDAQ:BITE) showed a nice jump from August, although the breakdown between large publicly-traded chains and independent restaurants isn't broken down.
- The early take from retail analysts is that the overall tone from the report is ever-so-slightly positive for Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and Target (NYSE:TGT).
- Previously: Retail sales track higher as expected (Oct. 14)
Wed, Sep. 28, 11:57 AM
- Dillard's (DDS +5.9%) is on the move after Credit Suisse upgrades the department store stock to Outperform from Neutral.
- "While we do not expect a significant improvement in reported profitability, we believe the company will continue to reduce overall debt and buy back stock, effectively reducing the enterprise value," reads the CS note.
- The investment firms sets a price target of $70 (4.8X EV/EBITDA).
Fri, Aug. 19, 7:51 AM
Thu, Aug. 11, 5:36 PM
Thu, Aug. 11, 4:17 PM
Thu, Aug. 11, 11:21 AM
- Macy's (M +15.5%) CEO Terry Lundgren delivered some very direct analysis on the overcapacity of physical department stores in the U.S. during his round of media appearances today following the company's store-closing announcement.
- "In the U.S. there's 7.3 square feet per human being of retail space. That's just ridiculous when you consider in U.K. it's 1.3 in France it's 1.7 in Japan its 1.7." noted Lundgren.
- "We have 5.5 times the number of retail physical locations in America per capita than any country in the world and so there has to be a rationalization," he added.
- Another obvious point from the exec was the bottom line benefit of removing the most unprofitable stores from the base.
- Earlier today, Bloomberg Gadlfy posted a very revealing bar graph showing how many stores would need to be closed for certain retailers to achieve their sales per square foot level of 2006 (h/t Shelly Banjo). Shareholders of Bon-Ton Stores (BONT +1.7%), Dillard's (DDS +6.1%), Nordstrom (JWN +6.6%), J.C. Penney (JCP +6.8%), and Sears Holdings (SHLD +2.9%) may want to sneak a peek.
Thu, Aug. 11, 9:59 AM
- The retail sector is racking up sizable gains after Macy's set the table with a major store closing announcement (15% of full-line stores).
- Earnings beats at Macy's and Kohl's, along with a surprise upgrade on American Eagle Outfitters (AEO +4.6%) are also helping to boost sentiment.
- Notable gainers include Guess (GES +4.3%), Dillard's (DDS +5.8%), Ascena Retail Group (ASNA +4.6%), Stage Stores (SSI +7.7%), Sears Holdings (SHLD +4.6%), Gap (GPS +3.5%), Abercombie & Fitch (ANF +3.2%), Barnes & Noble (BKS +3.2%), Urban Outfitters (URBN +1.3%), Francesca's (FRAN +2.5%), DSW (DSW +3.5%), Pier 1 Imports (PIR +4%), and Finish Line (FINL +2.4%).
- The S&P 500 Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) is up 2.1% on the day off the chain store buzz.
- Retail ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXD, IYC, FDIS, SCC, RCD, UCC, PMR, JHMC, CNDF
Thu, Aug. 11, 8:44 AM
- The department store sector is on watch for volatility after stronger-than-expected results are posted at both Kohl's and Macy's.
- Beyond the earnings numbers, the headline story may be the plan by Macy's to close 15% of its full-line stores.
- J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) is up 5.14% premarket, while Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) is 5.13% higher. Dillard's (NYSE:DDS), Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD), Stage Stores (NYSE:SSI), Bon-Ton Stores (NASDAQ:BONT) are inactive in the premarket session.
- Previously: Kohl's rallies after earnings and guidance impress (Aug. 11)
- Previously: Macy's soars after earnings beat and store trimming plan fires up investors (Aug. 11)
Tue, Aug. 9, 1:36 PM
- There's a dark mood in the apparel store sector after Gap (GPS -6.4%) spilled its July sales numbers.
- The retailer's 4% drop in comparable store sales for the month missed the -1% mark expected by analysts by a wide margin. Gap had raised hopes for a retail sector comeback with a return to a positive comp in June before the July disappointment.
- On a prerecorded sales call (855-500-0477 participant code 7405599), Gap management dropped a discouraging nugget: "We’re maintaining a cautious view of the retail environment in the second half."
- As a bit of a bellwether, the outlook from Gap is resonating across the retail sector. There's also a cut on same-store estimates for Target from Cleveland Research which could be drawing some attention.
- Retail decliners: Tailored Brands (TLRD -5.5%), Ascena Retail Group (ASNA -4.7%), Express (EXPR -4.4%), Citi Trends (CTRN -3.3%), Buckle (BKE -3.4%), Cato (CATO -3.3%), American Eagles Outfitters AEO, Abercrombie & Fitch ANF, Chico's FAS (CHS -2.6%), Kohl's (KSS -3.7%), Dillard's (DDS -2.9%), Macy's (M -2.4%), Fred's (FRED -3.3%), Target (TGT -3.1%), Tuesday Morning (TUES -1.5%), L Brands (LB -1.9%), Christopher & Banks (CBK -2.6%).
Wed, Jun. 15, 10:24 AM
- Department store stocks are off and running in a surprising move higher. There wasn't an encouraging read on the category in yesterday's retail sales report or anything particularly bullish out from Wall Street today on the sector.
- Some traders think that names in the sector could see some upside with more "strategic" announcements expected during the slate of investor conference scheduled for this month.
- Gainers include Sears Holdings (SHLD +9.7%), J.C. Penney (JCP +5%), Kohl's (KSS +3.4%), Macy's (M +3.8%), Nordstrom (JWN +3.8%), Dillard's (DDS +3%), and Stage Stores (SSI +3.2%).
- Previously: Healthy spending in pockets of retail (June 14)
Thu, Jun. 2, 2:55 PM
- Michael Kors (KORS +4.1%) weighed in on the department store channel during its earnings call yesterday. The negative stance on department stores could tip off more pressure within the sector (M, JWN, DDS, JCP, KSS) in holding onto some high-end brands.
- "We believe that the North America retail environment remains highly promotional, which is impacting the long-term brand equity of Michael Kors," said CEO John Idol.
- "We’ve seen that magnified over the last 12 months and it’s not healthy for the Michael Kors brand,” he added.
- “We’ll create a healthier demand for our wholesalers and ourselves by reducing the [number of] units we put out there,” summed up Idol on future strategy with department stores.
- Michael Kors earnings call transcript
Mon, May 23, 4:30 PM
Sat, May 14, 11:01 AM
- The retail sector stays in focus next week with Target (NYSE:TGT), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), and Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST) all due to report on Q1 earnings to follow on a week of dismal reports and guidance from the department store sector (Nordstrom, L Brands, Macy's, Kohl's). Home improvement chains Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) are also due to spill numbers.
- The story from the Commerce Department's April read of retail sales (+3.0% Y/Y, +1.3% M/M) is one of a consumer spending on housing, entertainment, and personal care/fitness over apparel and general merchandise. The 10% Y/Y gain in the nonstore retailer category also tipped that the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Effect is magnifying.
- Amplify ETFs CEO Christian Magoon tells Seeking Alpha that the traditional retail model appears to be broken. Amplify's Online Retail ETF (NASDAQ:IBUY) is a bet on companies such as Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB), Blue Nile (NASDAQ:NILE), and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) that are reeling in millennial dollars.
- Magoon on retail: "Traditional retailers face the headwinds of higher cost structures including the very real threat of increasing wages in the form of the $15 minimum wage campaign. Less flexible with inventory management, they also are more vulnerable to issues like weather and changing consumer preferences."
- Retail ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, PBJ, IYK, FXD, IYC, RHS, FDIS, PEJ, FSTA, PSL, SCC, RCD, UCC, PEZ, PMR, PSCC, UGE, PSCD, SZK, BITE.
- Apparel stocks: KATE, ANN, LULU, PVH, VNCE, CRI, UA, HBI, VFC, COLM, GIL, SQBG, JCP, KSS, DDS, M, JWN, ARO, AEO, ANF, WTSL, TLYS, CACH, ZUMZ, PSUN, EXPR, BKE, GIII, SQBG, HBI, VRA, ICON, SHOO, PERY, DXLG, BONT, GES, URBN, RL,GIL, NKE, OXM, HBI, VNCE, PERY, ICON, FL.
Fri, May 13, 11:25 AM
- Some beat-up mall stocks have overcome a sputtering start to move solidly higher. The names seemed to have reacted to a red-hot read on consumer sentiment from the Reuters/UofM survey.
- Recovery modef: Kohl's (KSS +7.9%), Macy's (M +3%), Dillard's (DDS +2.5%), Gap (GPS +2%), JC Penney (JCP +1.8%), Ascena Retail (ASNA +3.1%), and Christopher & Banks (CBK +2.5%).
- Previously: Retail sales: Consumers spending, just not where they used to (May 13)
- Previously: Retail sales dazzle, retail stocks not so much (May 13)
Thu, May 12, 4:24 PM