Tue, Nov. 29, 9:20 AM
- The latest read from Redbook on retail store sales indicates that sales are up 1.2% Y/Y through the first 26 days of the month. Redbook expects a 1.4% gain for the month.
- Department stores reported strength in gift merchandise, including small appliances, accessories and cold weather apparel. The level of discounting in the sector will have a large impact on how Q4 earnings play out.
- Related stocks: DDS, M, SSI, BONT, SHLD, JCP, KSS, JWN.
- Previously: Redbook Chain Store Sales: +2.2% (Nov. 29)
Thu, Nov. 17, 4:56 PM
Mon, Nov. 14, 10:33 AM
- Department store stocks are rallying right along with other mall names on a boost in confidence from investors and analysts that consumer spending will perk up and GOP tax policy will help lift profits across the sector.
- Sears Holdings (SHLD +4.3%), J.C. Penney (JCP +3.8%), Kohl's (KSS +5.1%), Bon-Ton Stores (BONT +6.7%), Nordstrom (JWN +5.7%) and Dillard's (DDS +4.8%) are all solidly higher.
- An interesting case is Macy's (M +5.2%) which drew the ire and Twitter hostility from Donald Trump during the primaries. Shares of Macy's are up 18% since the election as investors assume that the Trump-Macy's feud is a non-factor.
- Previously: Vibrant rally for clothing and footwear stocks (Nov. 14)
- Previously: Investors see upside with apparel store stocks (Nov. 14)
Thu, Nov. 10, 5:36 PM
Thu, Nov. 10, 4:23 PM
Wed, Nov. 9, 1:14 PM
- Retail store chains are breaking higher as investors digest the impact of the GOP sweep.
- A very popular topic on Q3 conference calls was election anxiety in the U.S., with the thought that consumers were holding back.
- An interesting point is that in recent consumer sentiment surveys Republicans showed a sharply lower positive reading on the state of affairs than Democrats. If the theory holds out, close to 60M Trump voters will now open their pocketbooks a bit more.
- Gainers include Fred's (FRED +10.5%), Tuesday Morning (TUES +7.1%), Kroger (KR +4.2%), Whole Foods Market (WFM +2.5%), Supervalu (SVU +4.2%), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI +3%) Stage Stores (SSI +6.7%), Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW +2.7%), Kohl's(KSS +3.3%), Dillard's (DDS +2.2%), Stein Mart (SMRT +4.5%), Tailored Brands (TLRD +4.1%), Guess (GES +3.6%), Gap (GPS +3.1%), Buckle (BKE +3.6%) and PriceSmart (PSMT +1.4%).
Mon, Oct. 17, 1:02 PM
- Investors appear to be a little edgy about the chain store sector with the earnings season just starting to ramp up.
- Dillard's (DDS -4.3%) and Bon-Ton Stores (BONT -5%) are down significantly, while Kohl's (KSS -1.3%), Big Lots (BIG -0.7%), Fred's (FRED -1.6%), Target (TGT -1.2%), Five Below (FIVE -2.6%), Pier 1 Imports (PIR -5.3%), and Barnes & Noble Education (BNED -2.4%) are all tracking below broad market averages.
- There isn't a lot of consensus about what's been holding back U.S. consumers. Today, higher gas prices is being floated around as a factor, while last week it was election anxiety.
- 12-month chart of gas prices in the U.S. via GasBuddy.
- Previously: Retail sales track higher as expected (Oct. 14)
- Previously: Winners and losers from the retail sales report (Oct. 14)
- ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXD, FDIS, RCD, PMR, CNDF, FTXD, JHMC.
Fri, Oct. 14, 9:05 AM
- Retail sales increased 2.7% Y/Y and 0.6% M/M in September on broad gains across categories. The sales totals for August were also nudged slightly higher.
- Sales from nonstore retailers like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) were up 10.6% Y/Y to once again account for a higher percentage of overall sales.
- The building material & garden equipment category showed a 1.4% M/M and 5.6% Y/Y gain which bodes well for Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe's (NYSE:LOW).
- Department stores (DDS, SHLD, JCP, M, JWN) lagged again as sales fell 0.7% M/M and 6.4% Y/Y, while furniture and home furnishing stores (HVT, WSM, KIRK, RH, BBBY) outpaced the broad averages in the sector.
- Restaurant sales (NASDAQ:BITE) showed a nice jump from August, although the breakdown between large publicly-traded chains and independent restaurants isn't broken down.
- The early take from retail analysts is that the overall tone from the report is ever-so-slightly positive for Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and Target (NYSE:TGT).
- Previously: Retail sales track higher as expected (Oct. 14)
Wed, Sep. 28, 11:57 AM
- Dillard's (DDS +5.9%) is on the move after Credit Suisse upgrades the department store stock to Outperform from Neutral.
- "While we do not expect a significant improvement in reported profitability, we believe the company will continue to reduce overall debt and buy back stock, effectively reducing the enterprise value," reads the CS note.
- The investment firms sets a price target of $70 (4.8X EV/EBITDA).
Fri, Aug. 19, 7:51 AM
Thu, Aug. 11, 5:36 PM
Thu, Aug. 11, 4:17 PM
Thu, Aug. 11, 11:21 AM
- Macy's (M +15.5%) CEO Terry Lundgren delivered some very direct analysis on the overcapacity of physical department stores in the U.S. during his round of media appearances today following the company's store-closing announcement.
- "In the U.S. there's 7.3 square feet per human being of retail space. That's just ridiculous when you consider in U.K. it's 1.3 in France it's 1.7 in Japan its 1.7." noted Lundgren.
- "We have 5.5 times the number of retail physical locations in America per capita than any country in the world and so there has to be a rationalization," he added.
- Another obvious point from the exec was the bottom line benefit of removing the most unprofitable stores from the base.
- Earlier today, Bloomberg Gadlfy posted a very revealing bar graph showing how many stores would need to be closed for certain retailers to achieve their sales per square foot level of 2006 (h/t Shelly Banjo). Shareholders of Bon-Ton Stores (BONT +1.7%), Dillard's (DDS +6.1%), Nordstrom (JWN +6.6%), J.C. Penney (JCP +6.8%), and Sears Holdings (SHLD +2.9%) may want to sneak a peek.
Thu, Aug. 11, 9:59 AM
- The retail sector is racking up sizable gains after Macy's set the table with a major store closing announcement (15% of full-line stores).
- Earnings beats at Macy's and Kohl's, along with a surprise upgrade on American Eagle Outfitters (AEO +4.6%) are also helping to boost sentiment.
- Notable gainers include Guess (GES +4.3%), Dillard's (DDS +5.8%), Ascena Retail Group (ASNA +4.6%), Stage Stores (SSI +7.7%), Sears Holdings (SHLD +4.6%), Gap (GPS +3.5%), Abercombie & Fitch (ANF +3.2%), Barnes & Noble (BKS +3.2%), Urban Outfitters (URBN +1.3%), Francesca's (FRAN +2.5%), DSW (DSW +3.5%), Pier 1 Imports (PIR +4%), and Finish Line (FINL +2.4%).
- The S&P 500 Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) is up 2.1% on the day off the chain store buzz.
- Retail ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXD, IYC, FDIS, SCC, RCD, UCC, PMR, JHMC, CNDF
Thu, Aug. 11, 8:44 AM
- The department store sector is on watch for volatility after stronger-than-expected results are posted at both Kohl's and Macy's.
- Beyond the earnings numbers, the headline story may be the plan by Macy's to close 15% of its full-line stores.
- J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) is up 5.14% premarket, while Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) is 5.13% higher. Dillard's (NYSE:DDS), Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD), Stage Stores (NYSE:SSI), Bon-Ton Stores (NASDAQ:BONT) are inactive in the premarket session.
- Previously: Kohl's rallies after earnings and guidance impress (Aug. 11)
- Previously: Macy's soars after earnings beat and store trimming plan fires up investors (Aug. 11)
Tue, Aug. 9, 1:36 PM
- There's a dark mood in the apparel store sector after Gap (GPS -6.4%) spilled its July sales numbers.
- The retailer's 4% drop in comparable store sales for the month missed the -1% mark expected by analysts by a wide margin. Gap had raised hopes for a retail sector comeback with a return to a positive comp in June before the July disappointment.
- On a prerecorded sales call (855-500-0477 participant code 7405599), Gap management dropped a discouraging nugget: "We’re maintaining a cautious view of the retail environment in the second half."
- As a bit of a bellwether, the outlook from Gap is resonating across the retail sector. There's also a cut on same-store estimates for Target from Cleveland Research which could be drawing some attention.
- Retail decliners: Tailored Brands (TLRD -5.5%), Ascena Retail Group (ASNA -4.7%), Express (EXPR -4.4%), Citi Trends (CTRN -3.3%), Buckle (BKE -3.4%), Cato (CATO -3.3%), American Eagles Outfitters AEO, Abercrombie & Fitch ANF, Chico's FAS (CHS -2.6%), Kohl's (KSS -3.7%), Dillard's (DDS -2.9%), Macy's (M -2.4%), Fred's (FRED -3.3%), Target (TGT -3.1%), Tuesday Morning (TUES -1.5%), L Brands (LB -1.9%), Christopher & Banks (CBK -2.6%).