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  • Yesterday, 3:18 PM
    • After a three standard deviation move in large-cap bank stocks, it seems logical to think about heading to the sidelines, says analyst Betsy Graseck. But should the names pull back, she recommends adding to positions as the bull case still outweighs the bear case next year.
    • Using base case 2018 estimates and a target P/E of 12x implies 14% upside for Morgan's eight Overweight-rated stocks. The bull case on 2018 estimates with the same target P/E means upside of 41%.
    • Top picks are Citigroup (NYSE:C), Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF) on stronger capital returns; Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) on higher rates and lower expenses; Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) on rising market volatility and improving VAR productivity; JPMorgan and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) on stronger loan growth and expense management; Capital One (NYSE:COF) and Discover (NYSE:DFS) on rising consumer leverage and higher capital return.
    | Yesterday, 3:18 PM | 46 Comments
  • Tue, Nov. 15, 8:33 AM
    • October's charge-off rate of 2.4% was up from 2.2% in September, and stood against 2.1% in October one year ago. The rate has ranged between 2.1% and 2.5% over the past year.
    • The 30-day delinquency rate was 2% in October, up 10 basis points from September and up 30 bps from a year ago. That rate has ranged between 1.6% and 1.9% all year, before its move to 2% last month.
    • Ending loans of $58.5B vs. $58B in September and $55.7B a year ago.
    | Tue, Nov. 15, 8:33 AM
  • Mon, Nov. 14, 3:47 PM
    • Unsurprisingly given their run of late, financials dominate the list:
    • Bank of America (BAC +5%)
    • Citigroup (C +1.5%)
    • Citizens Financial (CFG +3.1%)
    • Discover (DFS +3.1%)
    • First Republic (FRC +2.5%)
    • Goldman Sachs (GS +2.2%)
    • Humana (HUM +3%)
    • Manulife (MFC +2.9%)
    • Northern Trust (NTRS +3%)
    • PNC Financial (PNC +1.7%)
    • Regions Financial (RF +6.5%)
    • Schwab (SCHW +1.6%)
    | Mon, Nov. 14, 3:47 PM | 9 Comments
  • Mon, Nov. 14, 8:23 AM
    • Noting a pricey valuation after the stock's big run higher, analyst Chris Brendler downgrades Capital One (NYSE:COF) to Hold from Buy. As for possible positive catalysts from a Trump administration, Brendler doesn't think those will be felt for years. His price target of $84 compares to Friday's close of $80.99.
    • At this point, he's more upbeat about Discover (NYSE:DFS) as it has lower risk and is more leveraged to the changes being sought by Trump.
    | Mon, Nov. 14, 8:23 AM
  • Tue, Oct. 25, 4:24 PM
    • Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS): Q3 EPS of $1.56 beats by $0.09.
    • Revenue of $2.3B (+5.0% Y/Y) beats by $30M.
    • Press Release
    | Tue, Oct. 25, 4:24 PM | 3 Comments
  • Mon, Oct. 24, 5:35 PM
    | Mon, Oct. 24, 5:35 PM | 20 Comments
  • Mon, Oct. 24, 9:26 AM
    • Missed payments on recently-issued credit cards are higher than that on older cards, according to TransUnion - almost 3% of outstanding balances on credit cards issued in 2015 were at least 90 days six months after origination versus 2.2% for cards issued in 2014 and 1.5% for 2013.
    • That's pushed up the overall 90 days late or more average to 1.53% in Q3 - the highest level since 2012.
    • The renewed push into subprime lending is likely the culprit - more than 20M credit cards were issued to subprime borrowers in 2015, up 20% from 2014 and 56% from 2013, according to Equifax.
    • Taking a look at oil patch states, the share of card balances 90 days or more past due in Q3 rose 12% Y/Y in Oklahoma, 10% in Texas, and 20% in Wyoming.
    • Interested parties: COF, SYF, DFS
    | Mon, Oct. 24, 9:26 AM
  • Thu, Oct. 13, 4:43 PM
    • Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS) declares $0.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
    • Forward yield 2.2%
    • Payable Nov. 17; for shareholders of record Nov. 3; ex-div Nov. 1.
    | Thu, Oct. 13, 4:43 PM
  • Tue, Jul. 19, 5:36 PM
    | Tue, Jul. 19, 5:36 PM | 5 Comments
  • Tue, Jul. 19, 4:29 PM
    • Q2 net income (after backing out a tax benefit) of $572M or $1.36 per share vs. $599M and $1.33 one year ago.
    • Total loans up 4% Y/Y to $71.9B. Credit card loans up 4% to $57.2B. Card sales volume up 2%.
    • Total net charge-off rate excluding PCI loans up 11 bps to 2.27%; total delinquency rate over 30 days past due up 11 bps to 1.60%.
    • Direct Banking pretax income of $868M down $46M Y/Y, wit higher net interest income and lower operating expenses more than offset by higher provisions and lower other income (increased promotional awards and discontinuation of mortgage operation). NIM of 9.95% up 32 bps. Provisions of $441M up $105M from a year ago. Reserve build of $27M driven mostly by loan growth; Q2 a year ago had a reserve release of $41M. Expenses down 2%.
    • Payment Services pretax income of $30M up $2M Y/Y.
    • 7.8M shares repurchased during quarter for $425M, cutting the float by 1.9%.
    • Conference call at 5 ET
    • Previously: Discover Financial Services misses by $0.06, misses on revenue (July 19)
    • DFS flat after hours
    | Tue, Jul. 19, 4:29 PM | 2 Comments
  • Tue, Jul. 19, 4:21 PM
    • Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS): Q2 EPS of $1.36 misses by $0.06.
    • Revenue of $2.21B (+1.8% Y/Y) misses by $20M.
    • Shares -0.1%.
    • Press Release
    | Tue, Jul. 19, 4:21 PM | 5 Comments
  • Mon, Jul. 18, 5:35 PM
    | Mon, Jul. 18, 5:35 PM | 1 Comment
  • Thu, Jul. 14, 4:45 PM
    • Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS) declares $0.30/share quarterly dividend, 7.1% increase from prior dividend of $0.28.
    • Forward yield 2.09%
    • Payable Aug. 18; for shareholders of record Aug. 4; ex-div Aug. 2.
    • Additionally, Board has approved a new $2.5B share repurchase program.
    | Thu, Jul. 14, 4:45 PM | 6 Comments
  • Thu, Jun. 23, 4:51 PM
    • Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY): Actual end of 2015 CET1 ratio of 9.2%, Q1 2018 CET1 ratio under severely adverse scenario of 6.1%, minimum 6.1%.
    • American Express (NYSE:AXP): Actual 12.4%, Q1 2018 12.3%, minimum 11.4%.
    • Bank of America (NYSE:BAC): Actual 11.6%, Q1 2018 8.1%, minimum 8.1%.
    • BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK): Actual 11.5%, Q1 2018 11.2%; minimum 10.5%.
    • BB&T (NYSE:BBT): 10.3%, 6.9%, 6.9%
    • BBVA Compass (NYSE:BBVA): 10.7%, 6.5%, 6.5%.
    • BMO Financial (NYSE:BMO): 11.9%, 5.9%, 5.9%.
    • Capital One (NYSE:COF): 11.1%, 8.2%, 8.2%.
    • Citigroup (NYSE:C): 15.3%, 9.2%, 9.2%.
    • Citizens Financial (NYSE:CFG): 11.7%, 8.8%, 8.8%.
    • Comerica (NYSE:CMA): 10.5%, 8.3%, 8.3%.
    • Discover (NYSE:DFS): 13.9%, 12.4%, 11.9%.
    • Fifth Third (NASDAQ:FITB): 9.8%, 6.8%, 6.8%.
    • Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS): 13.6%, 10.2%, 8.4%.
    • HSBC N.A. (NYSE:HSBC): 15.7%, 9.1%, 9.1%.
    • Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ:HBAN): 9.8%, 5%, 5%.
    • JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM): 12%, 8.3%, 8.3%.
    • KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY): 10.9%, 6.4%, 6.4%.
    • M&T (NYSE:MTB): 11.1%, 6.9%, 6.9%.
    • Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS): 16.4%, 10%, 9.1%.
    • Northern Trust (NASDAQ:NTRS): 10.8%, 9.6%, 9.6%.
    • PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC): 10.6%, 7.6%, 7.6%.
    • Regions (NYSE:RF): 10.9%, 7.3%, 7.3%.
    • Santander Holdings (NYSE:SAN): 12%, 11.8%, 11.8%
    • State Street (NYSE:STT): 13%, 9.6%, 9.6%
    • SunTrust (NYSE:STI): 10%, 7.5%, 7.5%.
    • TD Group (NYSE:TD): 13.1%, 8.4%, 8.4%.
    • U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB): 9.6%, 7.5%, 7.5%.
    • Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC): 11.1%, 7.2%, 7.2%.
    • Zions (NASDAQ:ZION): 12.2%, 6.6%, 6.6%.
    • Previously: All 33 banks pass this year's stress tests (June 23)
    | Thu, Jun. 23, 4:51 PM | 64 Comments
  • Tue, Jun. 14, 12:20 PM
    • In conjunction with CFO Brian Doubles' appearance at a conference this morning, the company said it expects a 20-30 basis point increase in net charge off rates over the next year.
    • BTIG's Mark Palmer notes Doubles says Synchrony (SYF -14.3%) continues to see the credit environment as "benign," though management anticipates "softening" in customers' ability to pay off balances. Palmer also says credit metrics currently are at unusually low (good) levels, and "normalization" should be expected at this point in the cycle.
    • There's also a positive catalyst on the horizon in the CCAR results, at which Palmer expects the initiation of buybacks and a dividend.
    • He reiterates his Buy rating, with $42 price target (60% upside) based off of 12.5x 2018 estimated EPS of $3.33.
    • Discover (DFS -3.1%), Capital One (COF -6%), American Express (AXP -3.9%), OneMain Holdings (OMF -7.3%), Santander Consumer (SC -5.5%), Ally Financial (ALLY -2.9%)
    | Tue, Jun. 14, 12:20 PM | 7 Comments
  • Tue, Jun. 14, 9:59 AM
    • Synchrony Financial is down more than 8% after warning of an increase in charge-off rates over the next year.
    • Capital One (COF -2.8%), Discover (DFS -1.1%), American Express (AXP -1.6%).
    • Releasing its monthly statistics, Discover says its net principal charge-off rate in May was 2.4%, down 10 basis points from April, but up from the cycle low of 1.9% from last July. The delinquency over the last 30 days was 1.6%, flat from April and from last summer.
    | Tue, Jun. 14, 9:59 AM | 4 Comments