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Dec. 4, 2015, 12:41 PM
- Credit Suisse analyst Edward Westlake says favorable market conditions that drove the oil refining business this year will carry over into next year, making many refiner stocks strong buys.
- Global gasoline demand grew at 3x its historical rate in 2015, and while consensus expectations for gasoline demand predict a regression closer to the long-term trend in 2016, Westlake sees at least another year of strong demand growth remaining.
- The analyst says he has been surprised at Q4 performance so far , and predicts a 2016 environment conducive to earnings strength, especially among coastal names.
- Credit Suisse has Outperform ratings on these refiners: VLO +1.6%, NTI +0.5%, CLMT +1.5%, MPC +3%, TSO +1.2%, ALDW -2.3%, WNR +1.6%, PBF +0.2%, DK +1.7%.
Nov. 23, 2015, 11:32 AM
- Phillips 66 (PSX +0.2%) is downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs, which believes elevated share prices in the group now make stock picking critical when it comes to refiners.
- Goldman says it continues to believe refiners will benefit from strong gasoline demand, capital returns to shareholders and favorable capture rates due to low oil prices, but is more concerned about tighter inland crude differentials, MLP-related upside and potential oversupply in the diesel markets.
- The firm says Valero Energy (VLO +1%) is its top pick in the group, while also upgrading PBF Energy (PBF +3.3%) to Buy from Neutral; it also likes Marathon Petroleum (MPC +0.7%) and Delek US Holdings (DK +1.2%).
Nov. 3, 2015, 5:04 PM
- Delek US (NYSE:DK): Q3 EPS of $0.29 may not be comparable to consensus of $0.83.
- Revenue of $1.55B (-33.2% Y/Y) misses by $20M.
Nov. 2, 2015, 5:35 PM
- ACHC, AFG, AIV, AMSG, ASH, ATVI, AWR, BIO, BKH, CBPO, CBS, CERN, CHEF, CHUY, CIM, CKP, CSU, CSV, CVC, DAC, DENN, DHT, DK, DKL, DVA, DVN, ECYT, ENPH, ENSG, EPIQ, ETSY, EVRI, FANG, FARO, FIVN, FLTX, FMI, FOGO, GHDX, GMED, GRPN, HCI, HL, HLF, HRZN, IAG, IPHS, IRWD, ITRI, IVR, JCOM, KEG, LLNW, MPO, MTZ, MXL, MYGN, NFX, NYMT, OAS, OCLR, OESX, OFIX, OKE, OKS, ORA, PAA, PAGP, PAYC, PBPB, PKD, QUAD, REGI, RIGL, RLOC, RP, RPAI, RXN, SLW, SSNI, SUPN, TDW, TMH, TSLA, TSRA, TX, UNTD, USNA, VNDA, WBMD, WR, WTR, X, XEC, XOXO, XXIA, Y, ZAGG, ZEN, ZNGA
Aug. 14, 2015, 12:47 PM
- The Obama administration will allow limited sales of crude oil to Mexico for the first time, Reuters reports, citing a senior administration official who says the U.S. Commerce Department is "acting favorably on a number of applications" to export U.S. crude in exchange for imported Mexican oil.
- The shipments, likely to be lighter, high-quality shale oil, would help Mexico's aging refineries produce more premium fuels, while U.S. refiners would continue to get Mexican heavy oil, a better match for them than the light oil coming from Texas and North Dakota.
- Although limited in scope, the move toward freeing up trade will please U.S. oil producers such as Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), which say the restrictions force them to sell oil at below global market rates, and may add momentum to efforts mostly to repeal what advocates see as a relic of the 1970s.
- Among relevant oil stocks: XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, RDS.B, OAS, NOG, CLR, WLL, EOX, SM, SFY, PVA, GST, SN, CRK, BBG, CWEI
- Relevant refining stocks: VLO, HFC, MPC, TSO, WNR, ALJ, PSX, PBF, DK, NTI, ALDW
- ETFs: XLE, XOP, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, NDP
Aug. 4, 2015, 6:58 PM
- Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) says it has reversed a 71-mile segment of its North Line oil pipeline from Longview, Tex., to northern Louisiana, in the first step of a bigger plan to link Permian Basin output to Louisiana refineries.
- The segment is helping feed ~15K bbl/day of Texas crude to Delek US Holdings' (NYSE:DK) Arkansas refinery, displacing barrels that had been trucked or railed to the plant at higher transportation costs, DK executive VP Mark Smith told analysts during today's earnings conference call.
- Smith said DK's 80K bbl/day El Dorado refinery is North Line's sole shipper until XOM finishes reversing another idle stretch to Baton Rouge, where XOM operates a 502.5K bbl/day refinery.
Aug. 3, 2015, 11:19 PM
- Delek US (NYSE:DK): Q2 EPS of $0.79 may not be comparable to consensus of $1.05.
- Revenue of $1.69B (-28.7% Y/Y) beats by $120M.
Aug. 2, 2015, 5:35 PM
- ADUS, AEIS, AIG, ALDW, ALJ, ALL, ANH, APU, BKD, BMRN, BNFT, CAR, CGNX, CHGG, CKP, CTRP, CYH, DAC, DENN, DK, DKL, ELGX, ELNK, ENH, EPIQ, EXP, FIVN, GGP, HIL, IDTI, ININ, INN, KAR, KBR, KONA, LLNW, LMNX, MCEP, MCHP, MDU, MDWD, MIC, MRC, NLS, NVGS, OHI, ONDK, ORA, OTTR, PLOW, PPS, QEP, QLYS, QNST, RBC, RSPP, RTEC, SGMS, SNHY, THC, TNET, TSRA, TXRH, UGI, VECO, VNO, VNR, WSTC, XL
Jul. 27, 2015, 11:59 AM
- Macquarie sees plenty of long-term value in the oil refining market despite concerns over the outlook for U.S. crude oil production growth, and initiates coverage with five new Outperform ratings for Valero (VLO -1.5%), Tesoro (TSO -1%), HollyFrontier (HFC -1.4%), PBF Energy (PBF -1.8%) and Delek U.S. Holdings (DK -1.4%).
- While oil demand remains above 1M bbl/day, Macquarie notes that refining capacity continues to be tight, oil finding and development costs have fallen to $25/bbl which has lowered crude production break-even levels, and capital discipline in the space has increased which opens the doors for special dividends and share buybacks.
Jul. 14, 2015, 3:57 PM
- Although upside among oil refiner stocks seems limited now, Goldman Sachs thinks H2 will be characterized by “dispersion, where company-specific, idiosyncratic leaders” such as Valero (VLO -0.8%), Marathon Petroleum (MPC +0.1%) and Delek US (DK +4.2%) will substantially outperform peers.
- Goldman continues to include VLO in its Americas Conviction List, maintaining a Buy rating and $79 price target. and likes MPC, with a Buy rating and $68 target, expecting Gulf coast refiners to benefit from sturdy gasoline margins, capital allocation, wider spreads and appealing valuations going forward.
- The firm upgrades DK to Buy from Neutral, believing it is well positioned to deliver premium free cash flow on the back of capex declines, while downgrading Phillips 66 (PSX +0.1%) to Neutral from Buy to reflect recent appreciation and expected margin pressure, and raising Western Refining (WNR +1.2%) to Neutral from Sell to reflect midstream value, M&A potential and strong Phoenix margins.
May 5, 2015, 6:27 PM
- Delek US (NYSE:DK): Q1 EPS of -$0.28 may not be comparable to consensus of $0.10.
- Revenue of $1.15B (-38.5% Y/Y) misses by $20M.
May 4, 2015, 5:35 PM
- ACLS, AGU, AIZ, ALL, AMRS, AMSG, ANAD, ANDE, ARC, ATSG, AWR, AXLL, BIO, BRDR, CENT, CERS, CLUB, COUP, CRAY, CSU, CTL, CVG, CYH, DK, DKL, DLR, DTLK, DVN, EA, ENPH, EXAM, FISV, FOSL, FTR, GCA, GHDX, GMED, GNMK, GPOR, GRPN, HK, HLF, HRZN, IAG, ICUI, IGTE, IRWD, JIVE, KAR, KGC, KONA, LC, MHLD, MM, MYGN, MYL, NDLS, NFX, NVGS, NYMT, OCLR, OKE, OKS, OUT, PAA, PACB, PAGP, PBPB, PKD, PXD, PZZA, QGEN, QNST, QUAD, REGI, REXX, RLOC, RNR, RP, RUBI, SBRA, SCTY, SKUL, SLF, SM, SPA, SUPN, TEG, TMH, TNET, TRNX, TSRA, TTGT, USNA, VVUS, WAGE, WES, WGP, WR, WSR, WSTC, WTR, WTW, XXIA, Y, ZAGG, ZEN, ZLTQ, ZU
Apr. 14, 2015, 5:40 PM
- Delek US Holdings (NYSE:DK) agrees to acquire a ~48% interest in Alon USA Energy (NYSE:ALJ) owned by Alon Israel in a cash and stock deal valued at ~$572M.
- DK says the investment - which could increase to a 49.99% stake at the company's discretion, with additional ownership above the threshold subject to approval of ALJ's board - broadens its asset diversity while offering future growth opportunities.
- ALJ +5.1% AH.
Mar. 31, 2015, 12:19 PM
- Delek US Holdings (DK -0.2%) discloses that it is in talks to buy some or all of Alon Israel Oil, one of Israel's largest fuel station and convenience store operators and the parent company of Alon USA Energy (ALJ +5.4%).
- A deal could give DK a stake in refineries and convenience stores in the U.S. and Israel; ALJ's refineries in Texas, California and Louisiana have an aggregate crude oil throughput capacity of 217K bbl/day and operates nearly 300 7-Eleven convenience stores in central and west Texas and New Mexico.
- Alon Israel had owned more than 50% of ALJ stock but now owns ~48% after giving up its majority stake through a share sale last month.
Mar. 26, 2015, 10:59 AM
- Cowen analysts see plenty of room to go in gains for the refinery sector, and moves up Q1 earnings estimates for across the firm's coverage universe.
- Cowen acknowledges that while crack spreads should start moving back to normal levels as industry maintenance winds down after April, margins are still strong, and many expect one of the largest-ever travel seasons this summer.
- The six stocks rated Outperform at Cowen are Delek (NYSE:DK) with a $43 stock price target, Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) with a $120 target, PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF) at $35, Tesoro (NYSE:TSO) at $90, Valero (NYSE:VLO) at $70 and Western Refining (NYSE:WNR) with a $60 price target.
Mar. 25, 2015, 5:45 PM
- The difference between the price of oil and the gasoline made from it would be bad news for U.S. refiners if the spread shrinks, but Cowen analyst Sam Margolin and Jason Gabelman offer three reasons why they’re not worried.
- With valuations remaining attractive, the analysts see three themes emerging to carry continued outperformance in refineries: positive consumer fuel demand response to lower prices, sustained crude oversupply into the fall turnaround period, and midstream consolidation and growth as a shareholder-friendly use of cash.
- The analysts have Outperform ratings on VLO, TSO, MPC, WNR, PBF and DK; only WNR failed to finish with a solid gain in today's trade.
Delek US Holdings Inc is an integrated energy company. The Company is engaged in petroleum refining, transportation, storage and wholesale of crude oil and intermediate and refined products and convenience store retailing.
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