Apr. 21, 2014, 11:17 AM
- It may be too late to pick up the "free desert" of higher returns from small caps and value stocks, suggests Larry Swedroe, as their historical outperformance is now common knowledge. In the past few years, markets have quickly bid up the share prices of these names alongside numerous publications and studies proving their superiority as investments. "One of the characteristics of an efficient market is that once an anomaly is discovered, the very act of exploiting it will cause it to rapidly shrink and eventually disappear."
- Related ETFs: IVE, IWM, IJS, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, EES, VBR, RWJ, URTY, IWD, VTV, SCHA, TWM, IWN, SDOG, VOE, RWM, SRTY, RPV, IWS, IJJ, DEF, SPYV, SCHV, SAA, DWAS, FLAG, JKL, VTWO, PWV, RZV, VOOV, MGV, DOD, SLYV, SDD, VIOO, RSCO, JKJ, SBB, UVU, RFV, EZY, TILT, FYX, VIOV, FNDA, FTA, XSLV, FYT, IWX, MDYV, JKF, IVOV, JKI, PXSV, EWRS, TWOK, VTWV, UVT, VONV, FNDX, PXLV, UVG, SJH, SMLV, SJF, IESM, VLU, GVT, PXMV, PXSC, SJL, FNK, IELG, SYV
Feb. 21, 2014, 2:48 PM
- Maybe sensing the moderate early-2014 selloff is done with, investors poured $13.4B into equities in the latest week, according to BAML - the strongest in 12 weeks and bringing YTD equity asset-gathering back to flat.
- Emphasizing the risk appetite theme, flows into high-yield bonds of $2.4B were the highest in 17 weeks, and money-market funds saw outflows of $40.45B after receiving inflows of $11.55B the previous week.
- Still, emerging market debt and equity continues to be sold. In fact, outflows from EM equities over the past four weeks have risen to 2.2% of AUM - just shy of the 3% level which signals a contrarian "buy" signal, says BAML.
- Turning into a pretty good contrarian signal himself, is Hugh Hendry, who dropped his multi-year caution in December to get "long pretty much anything." His Eclectica Fund subsequently lost 3.6% in January - its worst monthly tally ever.
- Related ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, NY, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, PWB, JKE, EZY, IWX, FTC, EEH, SPXH, JKF, SFK, TRSK, RWG, FWDD, FNDX, PXLC, ERW, PXLV, GVT, SYG, ALTL, PXLG, SYE, SYV, IELG
Jan. 7, 2014, 1:12 PM
- The future looks like the recent past to Citi Private Bank, which - in its 2014 outlook - says stocks have room to run, but beware fixed income. Citi's projections are based on its Adaptive Valuation Strategies which looks at long-term valuation averages to gauge what an asset might offer in the coming decade.
- "Our long-term AVS return estimates for government, investment-grade corporate and high-yield bonds are only 1.9%, 3.4% and 2.9% respectively. The recent rise in bond yields has helped emerging markets where estimated returns have now risen to 5.1%."
- Don't toss away fixed-income entirely, says Citi, but instead cut duration exposure, look for credit risk instead of rate risk, diversify into MLPs, REITs, and dividend stocks, and favor floating-rate investments.
- Broad fixed-income ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, ISTB, GVI, GBF, FWDB, MINC, GIY, AGND, AGZD
- Broad equity ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, MGV, FLAG, DOD, JKD, FEX, IWY, EQL, JKE, EZY, PWB, IWX, FTC, EEH, JKF, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, RWG, FNDX, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, PXLG, IELG
Dec. 30, 2013, 12:49 PM
- The out-of-favor Dogs of the Dow strategy regained some bite this year, up 30% (excluding dividends) to outpace the Dow 30 by 400 basis points.
- The strategy worked well for years until its popularity in the 90s assured it of working well no more - cumulatively from 2001-2010, the Dogs trailed the broader Dow.
- Dow ETFs: DIA, DOG, DXD, UDOW, SDOW, DDM
- The Dow Jones High Yield Select 10 ETN (DOD) attempts to follow the Dogs strategy adjusting the portfolio at year's end to reflect the new dogs.
- Not Dow related, but Dog Theory related are the ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs - SDOG, IDOG.
Dec. 26, 2013, 9:35 AM
- Bulls in the AAII Investor Sentiment Index rose 7.6 points to 55.1% in the week ended yesterday, the highest level since early January 2011. The long-term bullish average is 39%.
- Bearish sentiment slumped 6.5 points to 18.5%. The long-term average is 30.5%.
- Broad market ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, EEH, JKF, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Dec. 11, 2013, 12:08 PM
- "2014 is the year to squeeze more juice out of risk assets. But investors should be ready to discard the fruit when it starts running dry," says BlackRock's Ewen Cameron Watt in the firm's 2014 Investment Outlook. "Beware of traffic jams: easy to get into, hard to get out of."
- Behind the view is the idea central banks (U.S., U.K, Canada, China, to name a few) are poised to begin tightening monetary policy.
- BlackRock doesn't believe stocks are yet in a bubble, but its "risk indicator" - measuring enterprise value against earnings adjusted for volatility - is nearly as high as just before the dotcom bust. "The ratio of the two is the key. High valuations combined with low volatility can make for a lethal mix. This market gauge sounded the alarm well before the Great Financial Crisis."
- Broad large-cap ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, JKF, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, FWDD, PXLC, ALTL, PXLV, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Dec. 6, 2013, 1:13 PM
- "The great peril is not that the Fed finally tightens monetary policy and US stock prices suddenly tumble from what are very obviously overpriced levels," writes Hugh Hendry in his December letter, explaining his new-found bullishness. "The greater peril is that the current backdrop will turn out to mark a rapid acceleration in the ongoing move to the upside."
- In a highly entertaining essay drawing inspiration from the classic Bob Ryan character who popped up on HBO's Entourage for a couple of episodes, Hendry notes the eerie comparison to the markets of 1928, 1982, and 1998 - all ended badly, yes, but participants made plenty of money during the boom phase.
- "Just be long. Pretty much anything."
- Broad large-cap ETFs: PRF, PKW, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, JKF, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Apr. 17, 2013, 8:56 AMFollowing a nearly 3-week period in which DB halted creations for 26 ETNs on which it's the indexer, the bank finally resumed creations on the notes yesterday. The affected notes follow: BDD, BDG, BOM, BOS, BUNL, BUNT, DEFL, DGP, DGZ, DOD, DTO, DZZ, INFL, ITLT, ITLY, JGBD, JGBL, JGBS, JGBT, LBND, OLO, SBND, SZO, UDNT, UUPT, WMW. | Apr. 17, 2013, 8:56 AM | 1 Comment
Mar. 18, 2013, 4:01 AMDB announces a halt in new creations on 26 ETNs it is the indexer or issuer on (effective 3/29), meaning the potential for the notes to trade at significant premiums to NAV as redemptions will still be available. DB expects to resume creations by mid-April. The affected notes follow: BDD, BDG, BOM, BOS, BUNL, BUNT, DEFL, DGP, DGZ, DOD, DTO, DZZ, INFL, ITLT, ITLY, JGBD, JGBL, JGBS, JGBT, LBND, OLO, SBND, SZO, UDNT, UUPT, WMW. | Mar. 18, 2013, 4:01 AM | 2 Comments
Jun. 29, 2012, 8:26 AMWith one day to go in the year's first half, Bank of America (BAC) ranks as the Dow's top gainer, +39%. Next is Disney (DIS), +27.5%, then Home Depot (HD), +23%. Worst is Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), -24.8%, then McDonald's (MCD), -12%. Remember the Dogs of the Dow strategy? It gets little love, but DOD has outperformed DIA YTD, Y/Y, and over the last 5 years. | Jun. 29, 2012, 8:26 AM | 2 Comments