DSUM
PowerShares Chinese Yuan Dim Sum Bond Portfolio ETFNYSEARCA
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  • Mon, Nov. 14, 4:00 AM
    | Mon, Nov. 14, 4:00 AM | 1 Comment
  • Fri, Oct. 21, 4:41 AM
    • China's house-price index dropped to 4.3% in September from 9.2% in August amid attempts by central and local governments to dampen the red-hot sector with purchasing restrictions in a number of cities.
    • In the first weeks of October, new-home prices in Beijing dropped 3.7% and 2.5% in Shanghai after rising in both cities in September.
    • In 63 of the 70 cities tracked, new-home prices, excluding government-subsidized housing, grew last month, down from 64 in August.
    • Despite the early signs of cooling, analysts are skeptical about the government actions amid mounting concerns about the huge debt in China.
    • "The most powerful property control is credit tightening, which we haven't seen," UBS economist Wang Tao said. "The purchase restrictions currently imposed can still be bypassed."
    • ETFs: CYB, CNY, DSUM, FXCH, CBON, KCNY
    | Fri, Oct. 21, 4:41 AM
  • Wed, Oct. 19, 3:22 AM
    • China's GDP growth remained at 6.7% on year in Q3, as expected, boosted by yet more government spending, record bank lending and an over-heating property market, all of which are adding to the massive debt in the country.
    • Q2 growth was also 6.7%.
    • The figure is in the middle of the government's 2016 growth target of 6.5%-7%.
    • Industrial production slowed to +6.1% on year in September from 6.3% in August and missed forecasts of +6.4%.
    • Retail sales accelerated slightly to +10.7% from +10.6% and topped estimates of +10.6%.
    • Fixed-asset investment growth jumped to +8.2% from +6.1% and met expectations.
    • "Economic activity seems to be holding up reasonably well, with few signs that a renewed slowdown is just around the corner," says economist Julian Evans-Pritchard. "Nonetheless, the recent recovery is ultimately on borrowed time given that it has been driven in large part by faster credit growth and a property market boom, both of which policy makers are now working to rein in."
    • Chinese shares -0.7%, Hong Kong -0.6%.
    • ETFs: FXI, ASHR, YINN, EWH, CAF, FXP, YANG, KWEB, PGJ, GXC, CYB, HAO, CQQQ, CNY, MCHI, PEK, CHN, CHIQ, CHIX, TAO, QQQC, DSUM, TDF, XPP, ASHS, CNXT, YXI, CHAU, YAO, CN, FCA, GCH, CHAD, FXCH, ECNS, CXSE, CHII, CHIM, KBA, CBON, CHIE, EWHS, JFC, KCNY, FCHI, KFYP, AFTY, FHK, HAHA, ASHX, CNHX, XINA, CNYA
    | Wed, Oct. 19, 3:22 AM | 29 Comments
  • Wed, Aug. 10, 4:18 AM
    • Purchasing in China's onshore bond markets drove the yield on 10-year government bonds to historic lows overnight, falling below 2.7%.
    • While that may come nowhere close to the negative yields of say, Japanese bonds, further easing now looks to be on the cards.
    • More records are also being set with dropping U.K. gilt yields and eurozone bond benchmarks, as the race to zero expands across the globe.
    • ETFs: DSUM, CBON, KCNY
    | Wed, Aug. 10, 4:18 AM | 3 Comments
  • Mon, Apr. 25, 4:28 AM
    • China's total domestic and foreign debt grew to a record 237% of GDP in Q1, the FT calculates, or 163T yuan ($25T).
    • The surge in borrowing comes as the Chinese government yet again turns on the spigots in order to boost stuttering growth.
    • What worries economists is not the size of the debt, which is comparable to the U.S. and the eurozone, but the speed with which it has accumulated. The Chinese figure was 148% at the end of 2007.
    • "Every major country with a rapid increase in debt has experienced either a financial crisis or a prolonged slowdown in GDP growth," Goldman Sachs' Ha Jiming wrote this year.
    • ETFs: FXI, ASHR, YINN, EWH, CAF, FXP, YANG, KWEB, PGJ, GXC, CYB, HAO, CQQQ, CNY, MCHI, PEK, CHN, CHIX, CHIQ, TAO, QQQC, DSUM, TDF, XPP, ASHS, CNXT, YXI, CHAU, YAO, CN, FCA, GCH, CHAD, FXCH, ECNS, CXSE, CHII, CHIM, KBA, CHIE, CBON, EWHS, KCNY, JFC, FCHI, KFYP, AFTY, FHK, ASHX, XINA
    | Mon, Apr. 25, 4:28 AM | 16 Comments
  • Thu, Apr. 14, 4:23 AM
    | Thu, Apr. 14, 4:23 AM
  • Sun, Apr. 3, 9:45 AM
    | Sun, Apr. 3, 9:45 AM | 6 Comments
  • Wed, Mar. 2, 2:12 AM
    • Moody's Investors Service has lowered the outlook on China's credit rating from stable to negative, citing a weakening of fiscal metrics and a continuing fall in foreign exchange reserves.
    • "Without credible and efficient reforms, China's GDP growth would slow more markedly as a high debt burden dampens business investment," the ratings agency added.
    • Moody's current Aa3 rating on China is still seven notches above junk, so even if the agency were to follow up on its warning, investors wouldn't have to suddenly start selling the country's bonds.
    • The Shanghai Composite also shrugged off the decision, climbing 4.3% to 2,850.
    • ETFs: FXI, ASHR, EWH, YINN, CAF, KWEB, GXC, PGJ, FXP, HAO, YANG, CQQQ, PEK, CHIX, TAO, MCHI, CHN, CHIQ, QQQC, TDF, XPP, ASHS, CNXT, YAO, YXI, CN, GCH, CHAU, ECNS, CHNA, FCA, CHII, EWHS, KBA, CHIE, CHIM, FCHI, KFYP, JFC, CHAD, AFTY, FHK, ASHX, XINA, CXSE, DSUM, CBON, CHNB
    | Wed, Mar. 2, 2:12 AM | 15 Comments
  • Fri, Feb. 26, 2:54 AM
    • China's recent attempt to inject cash into its economy - allowing banks to repackage and resell receivables - didn't work. Banks, it turns out, didn't like the idea of moving good assets off their balance sheets to make room for more lending in a debt-distressed environment.
    • Instead, Beijing has now decided to allow banks to repackage and resell their bad debt ("NPLs"): "China will allow domestic banks to issue up to 50B yuan ($7.7B) of asset-backed securities based on their non-performing loans, the first quota for such sales since 2008," Bloomberg says. "The quota, which will initially be allocated mainly to China’s largest banks, will allow lenders to remove non-performing loans from their balance sheets at a time when asset quality is deteriorating and the economy is slowing."
    • The quota could help banks remove 100B-150B yuan of distressed loans from their balance sheets, depending on the discounts needed to attract buyers.
    • Possible complications: i) The amount is small given the size of China's banking system, and the opacity around its NPL rates. ii) It's not clear how much demand their is for their NPLs, especially given investors' risk aversion ("Hedge fund managers such as Kyle Bass have warned that the nation’s banking system may see losses of more than four times those suffered by U.S. lenders during the 2008 credit crisis. Goldman analysts, in a Feb. 17 report, flagged the potential for a 9% bad-loan ratio in China’s banking system, more than the official reported level of 1.7%.") . iii) Even if they do find buyers, it's not obvious that banks will take advantage of the slack to lend back to the "real economy."
    • Previously: China's conundrum: Keep printing money, or resign itself to even more defaults? (Feb. 19)
    • ETFs: FXI, ASHR, EWH, YINN, CAF, KWEB, GXC, PGJ, FXP, CYB, HAO, YANG, CQQQ, PEK, CNY, CHIX, TAO, MCHI, CHN, QQQC, CHIQ, DSUM, TDF, XPP, CNXT, ASHS, YAO, YXI, CN, GCH, CHAU, ECNS, CHNA, FCA, FXCH, CHII, EWHS, CHIE, KBA, CHIM, CBON, FCHI, KFYP, JFC, CHAD, AFTY, FHK, CHNB, XINA, ASHX, CXSE
    | Fri, Feb. 26, 2:54 AM | 22 Comments
  • Fri, Feb. 19, 7:26 AM
    • There are only two ways China can play the increasing number of companies defaulting on their debt, BAML analyst David Cui says: i) Let the defaults take their course, risking a "chain reaction." ii) Continue printing money to bail out dysfunctional companies, putting downward pressure on the renminbi. That will make China's foreign non-RMB debt more difficult to pay, creating "financial system risk."
    • Yesterday, property investment company Shaanxi Xinsheng defaulted on RMB 4B. "As large as Xinsheng’s sounds, it pales against some of the other recent defaults in the lightly regulated P2P and private wealth management product markets," BAML says.
    • The endgame? "In a scenario in which investors are not bailed out and thus become more cautious, e.g, rolling over some of the debt instruments in the shadow banking sector, some borrowers may struggle to obtain credit, for example, developers and coal miners. Whether this scenario would trigger a chain reaction is a key risk we would need to monitor. If shadow banking investors continue to be bailed out, this would imply a further strengthening of the implicit guarantee, and potentially, put pressure on growth, increase the debt burden and hurt RMB stability. We re-iterate our view that financial system risk is arguably the most important risk facing market this year ... Until the debt issue is addressed, we believe it is unlikely we will see the bottom of the market."
    • See also: Why The Chinese Yuan Will Lose 30% Of Its Value (Feb. 18), China's Slumping Exports Could Sink The Global Economy (Feb. 16)
    • ETFs: FXI, ASHR, EWH, YINN, CAF, KWEB, GXC, PGJ, FXP, CYB, HAO, YANG, CQQQ, PEK, CNY, CHIX, TAO, MCHI, CHN, QQQC, CHIQ, DSUM, TDF, XPP, CNXT, ASHS, YAO, YXI, CN, GCH, CHAU, ECNS, CHNA, FCA, FXCH, CHII, EWHS, CHIE, KBA, CHIM, CBON, FCHI, KFYP, JFC, CHAD, AFTY, FHK, CHNB, XINA, ASHX, CXSE
    | Fri, Feb. 19, 7:26 AM | 10 Comments
  • Sun, Feb. 14, 2:29 PM
    • From Xinhua:
    • "The global financial markets have suffered sharp declines lately, with stocks plunging across Europe, Japan and the United States last week. Some players once again tried to link the global rout with China. However, such claims are unwarranted and playing the blame game in the face of challenges is useless."
    • "But as the Chinese equity market was closed for a week during the Chinese New Year, there has been no fresh news from China. Neither did China release any economic data or announce new policies that could move the markets during this period. Some of the media outlets in the United States carried reports this week on what they described as a "capital flight" from China, despite that the yuan has stabilized against the U.S. dollar recently."
    • "After years of massive monetary easing, some adjustments are inevitable, so "everyone seems to want to find someone else to put the blame on," China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in a recent interview with Chinese magazine Caixin. Zhou said that there is no basis for the continual depreciation of the yuan and that "China would not let the market sentiment be dominated by these speculative forces." Meanwhile, it is important to differentiate between capital outflow and capital flight. The capital outflow may not be capital flight. The market has had unrealistic expectation for the stability of the yuan as a result of its being "too stable over the years," Zhou said."
    • "Once again, financial markets are painting an oversimplified picture of a very complex story," said Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs. "Central banks are starting to wean markets from the artificial support of years of unprecedented quantitative easing ... that could prove far more problematic than another China scare."
    • ETFs: FXI, ASHR, EWH, YINN, CAF, KWEB, GXC, PGJ, FXP, CYB, HAO, YANG, CQQQ, PEK, CNY, CHIX, TAO, MCHI, CHN, QQQC, CHIQ, DSUM, TDF, XPP, CNXT, ASHS, YAO, YXI, CN, GCH, CHAU, ECNS, CHNA, FCA, FXCH, CHII, EWHS, CHIE, KBA, CHIM, CBON, FCHI, KFYP, JFC, CHAD, AFTY, FHK, CHNB, XINA, ASHX, CXSE
    | Sun, Feb. 14, 2:29 PM | 37 Comments
  • Dec. 9, 2015, 4:08 AM
    | Dec. 9, 2015, 4:08 AM | 19 Comments
  • Nov. 30, 2015, 8:20 PM
    | Nov. 30, 2015, 8:20 PM | 4 Comments
  • Oct. 1, 2015, 3:03 AM
    | Oct. 1, 2015, 3:03 AM | 15 Comments
  • Sep. 18, 2015, 3:41 AM
    • Government bond yields across the globe are in party mode after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in a nod to concerns about a weak global economy.
    • The German 10-year yield - the eurozone benchmark - is down 8 bps to 0.69%, mirroring a similar move in U.S. Treasuries overnight.
    • Equivalents in France, Spain, Italy and the U.K. fell even further, dropping 9-11 basis points, following Asian yields lower.
    • ETFs: FAX, GIM, EU, BNDX, JGBS, JGBD, DSUM, BWX, AUNZ, ALD, IGOV, BUNL, JGBL, CBON, GGOV, BUNT, JGBT, JGBB, CHNB
    | Sep. 18, 2015, 3:41 AM | 6 Comments
  • Sep. 13, 2015, 8:56 PM
    • Factory output in China rose 6.1% in August to miss the consensus estimate of analysts calling for a mark of 6.4%.
    • The soft read increases the odds that economic growth in China will dip below 7% in Q3.  The last time quarterly growth was below 7% was during the global crisis.
    • Fixed-asset investment in China decelerated to 10.9% during the first eight months of 2015, the slowest pace in 15 years. Analysts expected a 11.1% gain.
    • China-related ETFs:  FXI, GXC, PGJ, YAO, FCHI, PEK, CAF, YXI, XPP, FXP, MCHI, YINN, YANG, CHXF, KFYP, HAO, ECNS, DSUM,  CNY, CYB, FXCH.
    | Sep. 13, 2015, 8:56 PM | 18 Comments
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