DSW: Overdone Sell-Off And Multiple Positive Catalysts Should Generate At Least 20%- 30% Upside
John Zhang • 16 Comments
John Zhang • 16 Comments
When Will DSW Be Good Value?
Alpha Gen Capital
Alpha Gen Capital
Thu, Aug. 11, 9:59 AM
- The retail sector is racking up sizable gains after Macy's set the table with a major store closing announcement (15% of full-line stores).
- Earnings beats at Macy's and Kohl's, along with a surprise upgrade on American Eagle Outfitters (AEO +4.6%) are also helping to boost sentiment.
- Notable gainers include Guess (GES +4.3%), Dillard's (DDS +5.8%), Ascena Retail Group (ASNA +4.6%), Stage Stores (SSI +7.7%), Sears Holdings (SHLD +4.6%), Gap (GPS +3.5%), Abercombie & Fitch (ANF +3.2%), Barnes & Noble (BKS +3.2%), Urban Outfitters (URBN +1.3%), Francesca's (FRAN +2.5%), DSW (DSW +3.5%), Pier 1 Imports (PIR +4%), and Finish Line (FINL +2.4%).
- The S&P 500 Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) is up 2.1% on the day off the chain store buzz.
- Retail ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXD, IYC, FDIS, SCC, RCD, UCC, PMR, JHMC, CNDF
Fri, Jun. 17, 10:03 AM
- Gap (GPS +3.7%) is back over $20 for the first time in over a month with some improved sentiment bubbling up over the retail sector.
- The retailer's +4.5% dividend yield may be luring in some buyers
- Other retail movers ahead of broad averages in early action include Nordstrom (JWN +2.3%), Tailored Brands (TLRD +3.6%), Pier 1 Imports (PIR +3.6%), Best Buy (BBY +2.8%), and DSW (DSW +2.5%). Perhaps it's coincidence, but all those companies boast a dividend yield of over 3%.
Wed, May 25, 11:21 AM
- Investment firms reset expectations on DSW (DSW +7%) after factoring in the retailer's Q1 report and guidance update.
- Jefferies lowers it price target on DSW to $26.
- Telsey Advisory moves to a $23 PT from $26.
- Canaccord Genuity turns the bearish of the bunch, dropping to a PT of $19.
- Previously: DSW down after earnings miss in Q1 (May 24)
Tue, May 24, 12:50 PM
Tue, May 24, 9:14 AM
Tue, May 24, 7:39 AM
- DSW (NYSE:DSW) reports comparable sales fell 1.6% in Q1.
- DSW business sales rose 1.8% to $623.03M.
- ABG business sales decreased 0.3% to $43.14M.
- Gross margin rate declined 250 bps to 30%due to higher markdowns and the addition of Ebuys.
- Operating margin rate dropped 400 bps to 7.2%.
- Inventory +0.6% on a cost per square foot basis.
- Store count +29 Y/Y to 478.
- FY2016 Guidance: Revenue: ~+6% to +7%; Comparable sales: -1% to -2%; Gross margin: -100 bps to -150 bps; Opex: +7% to +8%; Tax rate: ~39%; Adjusted EPS: $1.32 to $1.42; Shares outstanding: 83M.
- DSW -8.84% premarket.
Tue, Mar. 15, 9:17 AM| Tue, Mar. 15, 9:17 AM | 4 Comments
Tue, Mar. 15, 7:43 AM
- DSW (NYSE:DSW) reports comparable sales rose 0.7% in Q4.
- DSW business sales increased 4.9% to $636.54M.
- ABG business sales grew 7% to $35.5M.
- Gross margin rate decreased 300 bps to 24.6% due to higher promotions.
- Operating margin rate declined 400 bps to 2.5% for the quarter.
- Inventory +1.5% on a cost per square foot basis.
- Store count +37 Y/Y to 468.
- FY2016 Guidance: Revenue: +8% to +10%; Comparable sales: +1% to +2%; Tax rate: 39%; Adjusted EPS: $1.54 to $1.64; Shares outstanding: 83M.
- DSW +9.13% premarket.
Nov. 30, 2015, 12:55 PM
- It's not a happy Cyber Monday for most retail chain stock on broad concerns over soft store traffic and weak pricing.
- Notable decliners include Guess (GES -5.5%), Express (EXPR -4.6%), Zumiez (ZUMZ -7%), Foot Locker (FL -1.7%), Finish Line (FINL -2.1%), Urban Outfitters (URBN -4.4%), Francesca's (FRAN -2.9%), DSW (DSW -2.7%), and Men's Wearhouse (MW -3.3%).
- Discounters are down sharply, led by Big Lots (BIG -5.4%), Gordmans Stores (GMAN -6%), and Five Below (FIVE -4.3%).
- Big box retailers Wal-Mart (WMT -1.3%), Costco (COST -1.4%), and Target (TGT -1.4%) are lower with concerns over website capabilities lingering in the background. Best Buy (BBY +1.1%) is a bit of a surprise with a 1.4% gain after reports indicate demand for Apple products is exceptionally strong.
- Specialty retailers such as The Container Store (TCS +1.6%), Party City (PRTY +1.2%), and The Michaels Companies (MIK +1.4%) are also retail outliers as consumers are seen spending a higher percentage of their disposable income close to their homes.
- Previously: Retail stocks on watch after Amazon scoops up more Black Friday sales (Nov. 30 2015)
- Previously: Department stores stocks weak on holiday sales anxiety (Nov. 30 2015)
Nov. 20, 2015, 11:47 AM
- The S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) is up 1.9% with apparel and footwear stocks doing much of the heavy lifting.
- A vibrant rally in sports stocks was sparked by earnings reports and Nike. Iconix Brand (ICON +2.5%), G-III Apparel (GIII +3%), DSW (DSW +3.7%), Finish Line (FINL +3.1%), Caleres (CAL +2.2%), Genesco (GCO +3.5%), and Shoe Carnival (SCVL +1.7%) join the list reported on earlier.
- Luxury names are on the move with Kate Spade (KATE +2%), Fossil (FOSL +2.9%), Coach (COH +1.4%), and Movado (MOV +2.7%) higher.
- The beat-up mall retailer group is also recovering after results from Gap (GPS +6%) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF +19.4%) topped worst-case scenarios. American Eagle Outfitters (AEO +2.3%), Guess (GES +4.6%), and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN +5.4%) are notable gainers.
- Big box retailers are the laggards today. Wal-Mart, Target (TGT +0.6%), and Costco (COST +0.6%) are right at market index averages.
Nov. 4, 2015, 1:45 PM
- DSW (NYSE:DSW) trades sharply lower after the company announces preliminary Q3 financial results.
- The company expects revenue of $665M and EPS to fall in a range of $0.41 to $0.44. Both marks are well short of consensus estimates. Weakness in the women's category was cited by management.
- DSW also announced that CIO Roger Rawlins will replace the retiring Mike McDonald as CEO.
- SEC Form 8-K
- DSW -9.2% with shares hitting a 52-week low of $21.23 earlier.
Nov. 4, 2015, 9:15 AM| Nov. 4, 2015, 9:15 AM | 2 Comments
Nov. 3, 2015, 5:38 PM
Oct. 23, 2015, 10:37 AM
- Shoe stocks are falling sharply after earnings reports from Skechers (SKX -34%) and Under Armour (UA -4.1%) reset expectations on a sector where valuation has been stretched out.
- Decliners today include Rocky Brands (RCKY -1.7%), Crocs (CROX -2.2%), Steven Madden (SHOO -6.2%), Deckers Outdoor (DECK -4.5%), Columbia Sportswear (COLM -9.2%), Nike (NKE -1.8%), DSW (DSW -3.7%), and Caleres (CAL -4.3%).
- Retail shoe selling channels such as Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS -2.3%), Foot Locker (FL -5.8%), and Finish Line (FINL -4.4%) are also sinking.
- Previously: Revenue miss at Skechers has investors scrambling (Oct. 23 2015)
Aug. 25, 2015, 12:46 PM
Aug. 25, 2015, 7:20 AM
- DSW (NYSE:DSW) reports comparable sales rose 1.8%.
- DSW business sales grew 7% to $592.58M.
- ABG business sales were up 4% to $34.62M.
- Gross margin rate increased 120 bps to 30.5%
- Store count +39 Y/Y to 449.
- The company expects FY2015 EPS to be in the range of $1.80 to $1.90.
- Q2 results
DSW, Inc. is a branded footwear and accessories retailer, which offers brand name and designer dress, casual, and athletic footwear and accessories for women, men and kids. It operates through DSW and Affiliated Business Group (ABG) segments. The company was founded on January 20, 1969 and is... More
Industry: Apparel Stores
Country: United States