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Mon, Aug. 25, 7:58 AM
- The FRBNY has been polling hedge funds and asset managers since the start of the year to gauge their expectations for the commencement of Fed rate hikes, and the latest survey - conducted before the Fed's end-of-July policy meeting - shows 41% expect a higher Fed Funds rate before the end of June 2015. That's notably higher than the 31% who though so before the Fed's June meeting and from 25% at the start of the year.
- Checking a more real-time gauge, the July 2105 30-day Fed Funds futures contract is at 99.66, suggesting a Fed Funds rate 25 basis points higher than it currently stands.
- Short-term Treasury ETFs: SHY, BIL, SHV, VGSH, SCHO, DTUS, SST, TUZ, DTUL
Thu, Aug. 21, 12:04 PM| Comment!
Thu, Aug. 21, 10:14 AM
- As high as 2.45% earlier this morning, the 10-year Treasury yield is now lower by two basis points on the session to 2.41% despite a more than 4-year high in the Flash Manufacturing PMI, a 3 1/2-year high in the Philly Fed Business Outlook, and Existing Home Sales rising past expectations in July.
- TLT +0.2%, TBT -0.4%
- A check of Eurodollar futures finds the first Fed rate hike being priced in for next Spring.
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, EDV, PST, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, DTYS, TYO, DLBS, VGLT, BIL, UST, UBT, SHV, VGIT, TLO, VGSH, TBX, SCHO, GSY, SCHR, TENZ, DTYL, LBND, TYD, ITE, DTUS, TYBS, SST, DTUL, DLBL, TUZ, TBZ, DFVL, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS
Wed, Aug. 20, 2:15 PM
- The 10-year Treasury yield adds another basis point following the FOMC minutes, now ahead 2.5% bps on the session to 2.43%. Looking at a rate more sensitive to Fed policy, the 5-year note yield jumps 4.5 bps to 1.625%.
- The minutes show many committee members believing the labor market is improving faster than anticipated across a whole range of indicators, and the time is getting near for when it can no longer be described as underutilized.
- TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.8%
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, EDV, PST, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, DTYS, DLBS, TYO, VGLT, BIL, UST, STPP, UBT, PLW, SHV, VGIT, TLO, GOVT, FLAT, VGSH, TBX, SCHO, GSY, TENZ, SCHR, DTYL, LBND, ITE, TYD, DTUS, TYBS, SST, TUZ, DTUL, DLBL, TBZ, FIVZ, DFVL, DFVS, TYNS, TAPR
Thu, Aug. 14, 3:04 PM
- "The end of 2015 Q1 is still my preferred liftoff date," St. Louis Fed chief Jim Bullard tells the WSJ. A March rate hike is well ahead of the H2 timetable being signaled by Janet Yellen and the broader FOMC, but Bullard says the Fed is now closer to its twin goals of 2% inflation and low unemployment than had been previously expected.
- Investors should fear the Fed falling behind the curve on inflation, he says, as "that's certainly been the history of the institution."
- Fearing no such falling behind the curve at the moment, the 10-year Treasury yield continues at a 15-month low of 2.40%.
- ETFs: SHY, BIL, SHV, VGSH, SCHO, SST, DTUS, DTUL, TUZ
Fri, Aug. 8, 7:25 AM
- Macro concerns trump Fed hawkishness as the 10-year Treasury yield falls another five basis points to 2.37%, its lowest since June of 2013. The yield on the long bond is down four basis points to 3.20%.
- In shorter maturities, the 5-year note is down four bps to 1.56%.
- A check of Eurodolloar futures finds them higher, but still predicting the first rate hike by next June.
- TLT +0.5% premarket
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, EDV, PST, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, DTYS, TYO, DLBS, VGLT, BIL, UBT, UST, SHV, VGIT, TLO, VGSH, TBX, SCHO, GSY, SCHR, TENZ, DTYL, LBND, ITE, TYD, DTUS, SST, TYBS, DLBL, DTUL, TUZ, TBZ, DFVL, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS
Fri, Aug. 1, 8:42 AM
- The uptick in unemployment in July came as the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.9% from 62.8%. It was 63.4% a year ago. The employment-to-population ratio of 59% was flat from June, and up from 58.7% a year ago.
- The average workweek remained flat for the fifth straight month at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings edged higher by a penny to $24.25 - they're up 2% from a year ago.
- May's 224K jobs gain was revised higher by 5K jobs and June's 288K was bumped higher by 10K for total upward revisions of 15K.
- The broader U-6 unemployment rate rose to 12.2% from 12.1% - a year ago it stood at 13.9%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield slips to 2.53% from 2.59% ahead of the report.
- Previously: July job gain below estimates
- Full report
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, DTYS, TYO, DLBS, VGLT, BIL, UBT, UST, VGIT, SHV, TLO, VGSH, TBX, SCHO, GSY, SCHR, TENZ, DTYL, ITE, TYD, LBND, SST, TYBS, DTUS, DTUL, TUZ, TBZ, DLBL, DFVL, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS
Wed, Jul. 30, 4:31 AM
- The Fed is likely to go forward with its plan to wind down its bond-buying stimulus today, cutting its monthly asset purchases to $25B from $35B - on target for shutting the program this fall.
- During the Fed's announcement, investors will be looking for clues to how much closer the central bank is to raising interest rates, which can be triggered by the recent unemployment drop or firm inflation.
- A report is also expected to show the U.S. economy growing at a healthy 3% annual clip in Q2.
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, DTYS, TYO, DLBS, VGLT, BIL, STPP, UST, UBT, PLW, VGIT, SHV, TLO, VGSH, TBX, GOVT, FLAT, SCHO, GSY, TENZ, SCHR, DTYL, ITE, LBND, TYD, SST, TYBS, TUZ, DTUL, DTUS, DLBL, TBZ, FIVZ, DFVL, DFVS, USFR, TYNS, TFLO, TAPR
Thu, Jul. 24, 10:14 AM
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is higher by three basis points to 2.50%, with jobless claims falling to an 8-year low winning the day vs. a big miss in June New Home Sales.
- Checking rate hike expectations, the December 2016 Eurodollar contract is lower by 5.5 basis points (means expectation of higher rates), and pricing in about 200 basis points of rate hikes between now and then.
- TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2%
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, IEI, DTYS, TYO, DLBS, VGLT, BIL, UBT, UST, VGIT, SHV, TLO, TBX, VGSH, SCHO, GSY, TENZ, SCHR, DTYL, ITE, LBND, TYD, SST, TYBS, DTUS, DTUL, TUZ, TBZ, DLBL, DFVL, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS
Tue, Jul. 15, 12:46 PM
- The Barclays Inverse U.S. Treasury Aggregate ETN (Pending:TAPR) will track the returns from short positions in 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, long-bond and ultra-long U.S. Treasure futures contracts.
- "TAPR expands and complements our existing range of fixed income ETNs, and offers investors a differentiated strategy to hedge against or benefit from rising U.S. dollar interest rates," said Ian Merrill, Head of ETNs Americas. "TAPR is also the first Barclays-issued ETN to be listed on NASDAQ."
- Other Barclays treasury ETNs: STPP, FLAT, DTYS, DLBS, DTUS, DFVS, DTYL, DTUL, DLBL, DFVL
Tue, Jul. 15, 12:24 PM
- About flat now, Treasury prices have been both solidly higher and nicely lower as Fed head Janet Yellen testifies before the Senate. Leading off her remarks by saying a high degree of monetary accommodation remains appropriate (bond prices rose), Yellen then suggested a faster-than-expected pace of rate hikes should employment continue its current path of improvement (bond prices fell).
- The 10-year yield is down one basis point to 2.54%, but Eurodollar futures are off a couple of points, suggesting just the slightest bit faster pace of expected rate hikes.
- TLT +0.1%
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, IEI, TYO, DTYS, DLBS, VGLT, BIL, UST, UBT, VGIT, SHV, TLO, TBX, VGSH, SCHO, GSY, TENZ, SCHR, DTYL, ITE, LBND, TYD, SST, TYBS, DTUS, DTUL, TUZ, TBZ, DLBL, DFVL, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS
- Previously: Gold slips below $1,300 as Yellen talks
Wed, Jul. 9, 2:14 PM
- Stocks remain modestly higher on the session, but Treasurys add to losses following the FOMC minutes at which the committee sets an October end for QE and begins to more seriously mull an exit from its extraordinary monetary stimulus. The 10-year yield is up four basis points to 2.60%.
- Turning to the economy, growth has bounced back from its significant drop earlier in the year, according to Fed staff, which sees real GDP expanding at a faster pace than potential output over H2 and the next two years.
- TLT -0.2%
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, IEI, DTYS, TYO, DLBS, VGLT, BIL, UST, UBT, VGIT, SHV, TLO, TBX, VGSH, SCHO, GSY, TENZ, SCHR, DTYL, ITE, LBND, TYD, SST, TYBS, DTUS, DTUL, TUZ, TBZ, DLBL, DFVL, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS
Wed, Jul. 9, 8:45 AM
- A "necessary condition" for rate hikes, says Minneapolis Fed boss Kocherlakota, needs to be a one-to-two year inflation outlook at 2% or more, and he currently sees the probability of this happening as "considerably lower" than the chance of inflation coming in below target.
- Willing to have inflation run at above 2% for some time to help employment, Kocherlakota says it's kind of a moot point for now since inflation is running so low.
- As for employment, the headline stats are masking a still-weakish situation. The decline in unemployment has much to do with lower labor force participation, and thus the Fed is failing to meet its job creation goal.
- The minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting are due at 2 ET.
- ETFs: SHY, BIL, SHV, VGSH, SCHO, SST, TUZ, DTUS, DTUL
Mon, Jul. 7, 7:58 AM
- The Fed will first boost the Fed Funds rate in Q3 2015 rather than 2016's first quarter, says Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius, his revised forecast coming after Thursday's big jobs number, but noting "the cumulative changes in the job market, inflation, and financial conditions over the past few months."
- The new forecast is still a bit more dovish than market expectations for a rate hike by mid-year, but Hatzius notes a larger significance to his move: It's the first time since the crisis he's actually moved forward his expectations for rate hikes.
- ETFs: SHY, BIL, SHV, VGSH, SCHO, SST, TUZ, DTUS, DTUL
Wed, Jul. 2, 8:26 AM
- The 10-year Treasury yield pops higher by three basis points to 2.59% after ADP reports private job gains of 281K in June vs. 213K expected. May's 179K gain remains so, but earlier months saw a mix of revisions.
- TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.8% premarket
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, IEI, TYO, DLBS, DTYS, VGLT, BIL, UBT, UST, SHV, VGIT, TBX, TLO, VGSH, SCHO, GSY, TENZ, DTYL, SCHR, ITE, LBND, TYD, SST, TYBS, DTUS, DTUL, TUZ, TBZ, DLBL, DFVL, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS
- Full report
Thu, Jun. 26, 9:15 AM
- Q1's 2.9% GDP decline is "giving me heartburn," says St. Louis Fed boss Jim Bullard in a TV appearance, but it's an aberration and doesn't seem to match up with other economic data out there.
- Markets - currently predicting the first rate hike within a year - have it about right, says Bullard. The economy seems pretty good and inflation should be over 2% in 2015 - together, ripe conditions for tighter policy.
- Short-duration Treasury ETFs: SHY, BIL, SHV, VGSH, SCHO, SST, TUZ, DTUL, DTUS
DTUS vs. ETF Alternatives
"The iPath® US Treasury 2-year Bear Exchange Traded Note is linked inversely to the performance of the Barclays Capital 2Y US Treasury Futures Targeted Exposure Index™. The index seeks to produce returns that track movements in response to an increase or decrease, as applicable, in the yields available to investors purchasing 2-year U.S. Treasury notes. The level of the index is designed to increase in response to a decrease in 2-year Treasury note yields and to decrease in response to an increase in 2-year Treasury note yields. To accomplish this objective, the performance of the index tracks the returns of a notional investment in a weighted ""long"" position in relation to 2-year Treasury futures contracts, as traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. The iPath® US Treasury 2-year Bear ETN employs an index multiplier that provides the investor at maturity or upon redemption a participation rate of $0.10 gain or loss per each 1.00 point decrease or increase, respectively, in the level of the index. For purposes of calculating the closing indicative note value on a given day, the index multiplier is multiplied by the daily index performance, which is added to the daily interest that accrued from a notional investment of the value of the ETN at the 28-day U.S. Treasury Bill rate, from which all applicable costs and fees are deducted. "
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