iPath U.S. Treasury 10-Year Bear ETN
 (DTYS)

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  • Thu, Feb. 4, 9:32 AM
    | Thu, Feb. 4, 9:32 AM
  • Fri, Jan. 29, 8:40 AM
    | Fri, Jan. 29, 8:40 AM | 8 Comments
  • Fri, Jan. 15, 9:54 AM
    • The Fed has strongly hinted of its plan to raise rates at every other meeting this year - meaning a total of four hikes, with the next coming at the March meeting.
    • Market participants haven't been buying that line, instead pricing in just two rate hikes this year - a move not unnoticed by the PhDs at the Fed who insist the markets aren't getting things right.
    • Mulling over another sharp decline in stocks and another weak batch of economic data, investors are doubling down on their dovish bets, now not pricing in another Fed rate hike until September.
    • The January 2017 Fed Funds futures contract is now priced at 99.335, implying a Fed Funds rate one year from roughly only 33 basis points higher than it is today.
    • ETFs: SHY, IEF, PST, IEI, BIL, TYO, DTYS, UST, VGSH, SHV, VGIT, SCHO, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, DTUS, DTUL, SST, TUZ, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Fri, Jan. 15, 9:54 AM | 3 Comments
  • Fri, Jan. 8, 2:50 PM
    • This morning's nonfarm payrolls print was pretty much a blowout, with 292K December jobs vs. 200K expected, and sizable positive revisions to November. The Fed has been right as rain on jobs, but other indicators - including inflation and manufacturing surveys - paint a significantly weaker picture of the economy.
    • A modest overnight bounce in Chinese equities, however, is failing to ignite any sort of rally in the West - with Europe losing nearly another 2% today to complete its worst week in nearly five years, and U.S. stocks giving up near-1% gains.
    • Fed officials, meanwhile, continue to insist the market - which sees just two rate hikes this year - is way too dovish.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield shot up to 2.21% after the strong number this morning, but is currently at 2.13%, off two basis points on the session.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, IEI, TYO, UBT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, LBND, ITE, DTYL, DLBL, TYBS, DFVL, VUSTX, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Fri, Jan. 8, 2:50 PM | 6 Comments
  • Dec. 16, 2015, 3:47 PM
    | Dec. 16, 2015, 3:47 PM | 12 Comments
  • Nov. 30, 2015, 10:13 AM
    • The New Orders subindex dove in November to 44.1 from 59.4 in October - putting that gauge at its lowest level since March. Production also fell sharply, but remained barely in expansion territory.
    • The overall Chicago PMI fell to 48.7 from 56.2. Consensus had been for just a small decline to 54.0.
    • Full report
    • Noting it's been an erratic period of demand all through 2015, MNI Chief Economist Philip Uglow takes note of the global economic slowdown, the strong dollar, and weak oil as all impacting businesses to varying degrees.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 2.22%, but had been as high as 2.25% earlier in the session.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, DTYS, UST, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    • Previously: Chicago PMI at 48.7, New Orders fall sharply to lower since March (Nov. 30)
    | Nov. 30, 2015, 10:13 AM | 8 Comments
  • Nov. 3, 2015, 11:11 AM
    • Maybe less important than the absolute level of interest rates, says Bill Gross, is the flatness of the yield curve - a situation coming Fed rate hikes are sure to worsen.
    • "Capitalism would not work well if Fed Funds and 30-year Treasurys co-existed at the same yield, nor if commercial paper and 30-year corporates did as well. Investors would have no incentive to invest long-term."
    • Gross calls for "Operation Switch," in which the Fed seeks to steepen the yield curve (and thus boost income for savers, banks, and ultimately corporate America) by swapping out of its long-dated Treasury holdings for shorter-dated (two to five years) paper.
    • Chastising U.S. central bankers for refusing to acknowledge the country's increasingly finance-based economy, Gross has no illusions the Fed will follow his advice.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, DTYS, UST, PLW, STPP, VGIT, GOVT, FLAT, TBX, FTT, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, EGF, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, TAPR, DFVS, TFLO, TYNS, USFR
    | Nov. 3, 2015, 11:11 AM | 4 Comments
  • Oct. 27, 2015, 10:49 AM
    • The FOMC will have some more weak economic numbers to chew on as it begins its two-day policy meeting today, with consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and PMI services all coming in well below expectations.
    • There's also disappointing Q3 results from the likes of Cummins (and more job cuts), UPS, and lodging REITs to consider.
    • Very few are predicting a rate hike tomorrow, but possibly there will be some hint as to whether the central bank plans to keep its promise to hike before year-end even as the economic data continues to soften.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is down four basis points to 2.02%. TLT +0.45%, TBT -0.9%
    • Thirty-day Fed Funds futures are pricing in about zero chance of a rate hike tomorrow and just a one-in-three chance of a boost in December.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, DTYS, UST, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | Oct. 27, 2015, 10:49 AM
  • Oct. 14, 2015, 9:07 AM
    | Oct. 14, 2015, 9:07 AM | 6 Comments
  • Oct. 9, 2015, 11:31 AM
    • Reiterating the company line that higher rates are in store before the new year, FRBNY President Bill Dudley tells CNBC reminds this is only a forecast, not a promise.
    • Even a hike this month is a possibility, says Dudley, acknowledging last week's disappointing employment report, but noting just 120K-150K jobs created monthly is enough to push unemployment down (especially with the denominator of headline UE rate equation - the labor force participation rate - continuing to shrink).
    • Recent market volatility? It's natural as the Fed prepares to begin a tightening cycle.
    • Previously: Atlanta Fed's Lockhart on board with 2015 hike (Oct. 9)
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, DTYS, UST, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | Oct. 9, 2015, 11:31 AM | 10 Comments
  • Oct. 6, 2015, 1:03 PM
    • Goldman's base case still expects a rate hike in December, but Friday's weak jobs number (along with downward revisions to August and July prints) has the team suggesting the Fed's first move may not come until well into 2016.
    • A check of Fed Funds futures finds market predicting just a 34% chance of a boost in interest rates this year, and the first 25 point increase not fully priced in until next summer.
    • Deutsche's Joe LaVorgna pushes his expectations for initial Fed tightening out to March 2016.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, DTYS, UST, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | Oct. 6, 2015, 1:03 PM | 16 Comments
  • Oct. 2, 2015, 12:16 PM
    • The weak jobs print probably takes an October move off the table, says Jon Hilsenrath, but it's unlikely to alter to alter Fed plans to get one rate hike in before the new year.
    • The economy has undergone more than one soft patch of job growth during this recovery, says Hilsenrath - most recently between Dec. 2013 and Feb. 2014 when job growth averaged just 154K per month (it averaged 167K per month in Q3 this year).
    • Also, many at the Fed believe slowing job growth makes sense thanks to slow growth in the labor force - i.e., the U.S. doesn't need to produce as many jobs to keep unemployment steady. He notes the broader U-6 unemployment rate fell thirty basis points to just 10% - well below the 20-year average of 10.7%.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, DTYS, UST, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    • Previously: Treasurys to the moon after lame jobs report (Oct. 2)
    | Oct. 2, 2015, 12:16 PM | 21 Comments
  • Sep. 30, 2015, 9:58 AM
    • "Production growth collapsed and New Orders fell sharply," say the authors of the Chicago Business Barometer report, as the gauge dipped 5.7 points to 48.7 in September - the fifth time in contraction zone this year.
    • Of the five components of the Barometer, just Employment and Supplier Deliveries were in expansion territory. A double-digit drop in Production put that measure at its lowest level since July 2009. Order Backlogs were in contraction for the eighth straight month.
    • "The scale of the downturn in September following the recent global financial fallout is concerning," says MNI Indicators Chief Economist Philip Uglow. "We await the October data to better judge whether this was a knee jerk reaction."
    • Full report
    • The 10-year Treasury yield dips a bit more from session highs, now up just two basis points to 2.07%.
    • Previously: Yields slip a bit after ADP jobs report (Sept. 30)
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, DTYS, UST, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | Sep. 30, 2015, 9:58 AM | 6 Comments
  • Sep. 29, 2015, 12:24 PM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by another four basis points to 2.06%, threatening to take out the 1.99% level seen during the panicky action of late August.
    • TLT +0.35%, TBT -0.7%
    • The 2-year yield is off 2.4 basis points to 0.64% - it was as high as 0.81% just ahead of the FOMC's decision not to hike rates two weeks ago.
    • Those who buy and sell on futures markets continue to take issue with the Fed's insistence that a rate hike is coming before year-end. The January 2016 Fed Funds futures contract at 99.765 discounts less than a 50% chance of a 25 basis point move. Going further out, the Oct. 2016 contract has rallied to 99.455 - pricing in less than 50 basis points of tightening between now and one year from now.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, DTYS, UST, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | Sep. 29, 2015, 12:24 PM | 6 Comments
  • Sep. 24, 2015, 9:51 AM
    | Sep. 24, 2015, 9:51 AM | 7 Comments
  • Sep. 18, 2015, 8:37 AM
    • "If you put a gun to my head, I would say probably 2016," says Pimco money manager Jonathan Ferro, calling the Fed worried it's not gotten any traction on (boosting) inflation. "The jury is out on December."
    • Two-year Treasurys had their biggest rally since 2009 yesterday after the FOMC refrained from hiking rates, and have extended that move this morning, the yield slipping all the way to 0.67%.
    • The 10-year yield is off another three basis points to 2.16%.
    • JPMorgan Asset Management's David Tan likes the 7-10 year part of the curve, noting global disinflationary forces, and any move on short rates now pushed out to December.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, DTYS, UST, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | Sep. 18, 2015, 8:37 AM | 2 Comments
DTYS Description
"The iPath® US Treasury 10-year Bear Exchange Traded Note is linked inversely to the performance of the Barclays Capital 10Y US Treasury Futures Targeted Exposure Index™. The index seeks to produce returns that track movements in response to an increase or decrease, as applicable, in the yields available to investors purchasing 10-year U.S. Treasury notes. The level of the index is designed to increase in response to a decrease in 10-year Treasury note yields and to decrease in response to an increase in 10-year Treasury note yields. To accomplish this objective, the performance of the index tracks the returns of a notional investment in a weighted ""long"" position in relation to 10-year Treasury futures contracts, as traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. The iPath® US Treasury 10-year Bear ETN employs an index multiplier that provides the investor at maturity or upon redemption a participation rate of $0.10 gain or loss per each 1.00 point decrease or increase, respectively, in the level of the index. For purposes of calculating the closing indicative note value on a given day, the index multiplier is multiplied by the daily index performance, which is added to the daily interest that accrued from a notional investment of the value of the ETN at the 28-day U.S. Treasury Bill rate, from which all applicable costs and fees are deducted. "
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