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Yesterday, 2:44 PM
- More dividend cuts and equity raises are coming for oil and gas stocks such as Apache (APA -4.3%), Devon Energy (DVN -5.1%), Encana (ECA -5.7%), Anadarko Petroleum (APC -6.2%) and Marathon Oil (MRO -5.1%), as management teams have become more willing to take stronger steps to strength balance sheets, Barclays believes.
- The firm views 4x debt to pre-interest cash flow as a warning sign that companies may have leverage concerns, at which roughly half of its energy coverage universe remains overlevered.
- Barclays thinks Canadian Natural Resource (CNQ -4.4%) likely will maintain its dividend, while Occidental Petroleum (OXY -0.8%) has the financial strength to maintain or even increase the dividend.
- The firm sees leveraged companies such as DVN, ECA and Range Resources (RRC -3%), and companies with large deficits including DVN and APC as most likely to consider raising equity; it also thinks MRO, WPX Energy (WPX -7.8%), Southwestern Energy (SWN -7.7%), Continental Resources (CLR +0.2%), Noble Energy (NBL -2%) and Newfield Exploration (NFX -1.2%) could issue equity; APA, CNQ, OXY, EOG Resources (EOG -0.9%) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD -0.3%) are considered unlikely to issue equity this year.
Wed, Feb. 10, 12:23 PM
- Devon Energy (DVN -2.3%) has hired Jefferies to sell non-core oil assets across four major shale basins in an attempt to raise $2B-$3B and slash debt, Reuters reports.
- DVN says it will offer the assets in the Permian Basin of Texas, the Granite Wash formation, East Texas and the Mississippian play as regional packages, and consider multiple packages together as a block.
- While small in size and value compared with Shell's $70B move for BG Group, bankers say DVN's block of assets is one of the biggest marketed for sale by a producer since the start of the oil market downturn.
Wed, Feb. 3, 5:17 AM
- Just ten days after Moody's put over half a trillion dollars in energy debt on review for downgrade, S&P decided it wanted to be the first one out of the gate.
- Companies that saw their ratings cut by one notch: Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Apache (NYSE:APA), Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR), Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Hess (NYSE:HES), Hunt Oil, Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO), Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE:SWN).
- Oil futures settled below $30 a barrel again on Tuesday, but prices have taken a positive turn this morning after two days of steep declines.
- Previously: Moody's places 175 oil, gas and mining companies on review for downgrade (Jan. 22 2016)
Tue, Jan. 26, 12:21 PM
- Devon Energy (DVN +6.3%) is resumed with a Buy rating and $45 price target at Citigroup, which says DVN is poised for increased production levels, and recent acquisitions are likely to boost its inventory of future drilling locations.
- The firm expects DVN to keep its total capital spending within the level of its cash flows and proceeds from the monetization of the Access pipeline, EnLink distributions and net of dividends.
- Citi says the $2.5B acquisitions of STACK and PRB are likely to significantly boost DVN’s inventory of future drilling locations, and the planned acceleration of activity in the STACK play in 2016 is likely to come at the expense of Eagle Ford and Delaware Basin.
Tue, Jan. 19, 2:56 PM
- Oil and gas companies such as Devon Energy (DVN -6.5%), Chesapeake Energy (CHK -15.2%) and Continental Resources (CLR -15.1%) will be “in a delevering phase for years," Guggenheim analysts say.
- Guggenheim says CLR CFO John Hart recently revealed a post-recovery spending plan that still appears within cash flows, confirming its bias that the E&P sector will be in a delevering phase for years, so activity levels will be slow to ramp and will remain subdued.
- For levered growth to return, the firm says the sector should first have resized land, equipment and personnel completely; while CHK believes it is sized to run 40 rigs instead of the 12 now active, the firm says it is a good sign the company hopes to delever first.
Sat, Jan. 16, 9:15 AM
- Oppenheimer's Fadel Gheit and Luis Amadeo offer a bleak view of the Q4 2015 earnings season for oil and gas producers, warning of sharply lower earnings with deeper losses and wider cash flow deficits Y/Y and Q/Q.
- Among the integrated oil majors, the analysts see overall Q4 earnings falling by more than 50% Y/Y and more than 30% Q/Q; they expect Chevron (NYSE:CVX) to show the steepest earnings decline of 60%-plus Y/Y and 50%-plus Q/Q, while anticipating Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) to report the lowest declines of 40%-plus Y/Y and 25%-plus Q/Q.
- Of the 15 large E&Ps Oppenheimer covers, 13 likely will report losses in Q4 vs. 10 in Q3 and none in Q4 2014, with only Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) and Range Resources (NYSE:RRC) reporting a profit; the analysts expect most of the other 13 to report steeper declines, including Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), Apache (NYSE:APA), Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Hess (NYSE:HES), Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO), Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE:SWN).
- Earlier this week, Gheit predicted that half of U.S. shale oil producers could go bankrupt before the crude market reaches equilibrium.
Fri, Jan. 15, 3:20 PM
- Nymex crude oil settled -5.7% at $29.42/bbl, its lowest level since November 2003, with concerns that Iran will soon add to the world's glut of crude supplies added to fears about an economic slowdown in China.
- When a decade of trade and banking sanctions against Iran end, perhaps as soon as Monday, the country could lift exports by 500K bbl/day and gradually raise shipments by the same amount again; Iran reportedly has 22 VLCCs floating off its coast, with 13 fully or almost fully loaded.
- Among major energy companies today: XOM -1.8%, CVX -2.2%, RDS.A -5%, BP -5.2%, COP -4.9%, TOT -3.7%, PBR -8.6%, E -4.5%, TOT -3.7%, STO -2.5%, MRO -10.2%, HES -3.6%, OXY -1.8%, DVN -5.8%, APA -4.9%, EOG -3.8%, APC -7.9%, PXD -2.6%, CXO -4.9%.
- ETFs: UNG, USO, OIL, XLE, UGAZ, UCO, DGAZ, UWTI, VDE, ERX, OIH, SCO, XOP, BNO, BOIL, GAZ, DBO, DWTI, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DTO, DUG, KOLD, BGR, USL, XES, IYE, IEO, UNL, IEZ, DNO, FENY, PXE, PXI, PXJ, FIF, DBE, OLO, SZO, NDP, RYE, DCNG, RJN, FXN, OLEM, DDG
Thu, Jan. 7, 11:58 AM
- Devon Energy (DVN -1.6%) is reiterated with an Overweight rating, although with a lowered their target of $42 from $46, at J.P. Morgan, which cites balance sheet strength and leverage to the low end of the U.S. oil cost curve.
- The firm says the high-grading of DVN’s asset base through the $1.9B Felix transaction in the STACK and planned divestiture program leaves the company with core positions in the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, STACK and oil sands.
- DVN has dropped 25% since the acquisition announcement on skepticism of its $2B-$3B divestiture program, but JPM says all signs point to a deleveraging catalyst in early 2016 with the monetization of the Access Pipeline, which could fetch up to $1B or more.
Tue, Jan. 5, 12:49 PM
- Oilprice.com's Michael McDonald says investors interested in energy should watch four bellwether stocks throughout 2016 to maintain a feel for the sector; Exxon Mobil (XOM -0.4%), Devon Energy (DVN -0.1%), Transocean (RIG -5.5%) and Kinder Morgan (KMI -1.7%).
- As the bluest of blue chips, a stable XOM would indicate that better times are coming for the rest of the sector but as long as XOM business is suffering, one can be sure that financially weaker companies are in even more distress, McDonald writes.
- DVN is still a favorite Wall Street name and should be one of the shale companies that emerges from the downturn well positioned to capitalize on weakness among competitors.
- Deepwater drilling likely will be one of the last groups to recover when oil prices start to rise, so McDonald says investors should keep an eye on RIG for a possible late inning recovery opportunity.
- KMI's reduced dependence on capital markets may be good for the stock in the long run, but the process of getting there has been painful, and investors should watch the stock during 2016 to assess when the pipeline group again becomes a sound investment.
Mon, Jan. 4, 6:50 PM
- Moody’s foresees capital spending reductions of at least 20%-25% in 2016 across the oil and gas E&P business, with oilfield services and drilling remaining the most stressed energy segment.
- Moody’s expects M&A activity and industry consolidation in 2016 to increase in a subdued manner given that the timing of a commodity price recovery remains uncertain; the firm notes that Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) has targeted the sale of $2B-$3B in assets for 2016, Husky Energy (OTCPK:HUSKF) also has reported plans to sell select legacy upstream assets, and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) likely will continue trying to divest select upstream assets in 2016.
- Globally, Moody's expects to see a rise in distressed exchanges and defaults in 2016, and cites Brazil's Petrobras (NYSE:PBR), Mexico's Pemex and Venezuela's PdVSA as three major international companies that are in serious trouble; the ratings agency also sees credit metrics for PetroChina (NYSE:PTR), Sinopec (NYSE:SNP) and Cnooc (NYSE:CEO) continuing to deteriorate through at least 2017, while Russia’s weak ruble will help Rosneft (OTC:RNFTF) withstand low oil prices.
- Moody’s recently projected a "lower for much longer" energy scenario, with average prices of WTI crude at $40/bbl in 2016 - $8 lower than its earlier forecast - $45/bbl in 2017 and $50 in 2018.
- ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, BGR, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, FENY, PXE, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG
Dec. 30, 2015, 12:46 PM
- Hit hard two days ago as oil fell below $37/barrel, oil/gas industry names are seeing more pain today after the EIA reported U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.6M barrels last week - expectations were for a decline. The report comes shortly after the API estimated U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.9M barrels during the most recent weekly period.
- After rising yesterday, WTI crude is down 3.1% to $36.71/barrel. Brent crude is down 2.9% to $36.69/barrel. Nymex natural gas is down 7.3% to $2.20/MMBtu.
- The biggest decliners include Chesapeake Energy (CHK -4.1%), Petrobras (PBR -4.1%), Linn Energy (LINE -7.5%), Gulfport Energy (GPOR -5.2%), SeaDrill (SDRL -5.5%), MV Oil Trust (MVO -4.5%), EV Energy Partners (EVEP -6.7%), and Southwestern Energy (SWN -5.7%).
- Other notable decliners include Hercules Offshore (HERO -5.2%), Marathon Oil (MRO -4%), Devon Energy (DVN -4.4%), Encana (ECA -4.1%), Range Resources (RRC -4.7%), Sandridge Mississippian Trust (SDR -4%), Newfield Exploration (NFX -3.8%), BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT -3.1%), Enerplus (ERF -3.9%), and ONEOK Partners (OKS -2.5%).
- ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, IEO, FENY, PXE, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG, DRIP, GUSH
Dec. 28, 2015, 11:45 AM
- WTI crude is down 3.2% to $36.90/barrel, and Brent crude down 2.5% to $36.95/barrel, leaving prices close to 11-year lows. Energy industry firms are among the biggest decliners on a day the S&P is down 0.6%.
- Fears about excess supply appear to be weighing once more. OPEC figures point to a global oil supply glut of more than 2M barrels (over 2% of global demand); a smaller glut is expected next year. Meanwhile, Japanese government data indicates the country's oil product sales fell to a 46-year low in November, and European data suggests the continent's oil product demand growth turned negative in October.
- The biggest casualties include Whiting Petroleum (WLL -9.9%), Oasis Petroleum (OAS -8.2%), Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR -12.5%), Denbury Resources (DNR -8%), SandRidge Energy (SD -8.1%), SandRidge Permian Trust (PER -10.9%), SandRidge Mississippian Trust (SDT -7.5%), U.S. Silica (SLCA -6.2%), Marathon Oil (MRO -6.7%), C&J Energy Services (CJES -8.1%), MV Oil Trust (MVO -9.2%), Bonanza Creek (BCEI -6.4%), Parker Drilling (PKD -7.9%), and Continental Resources (CLR -5.9%).
- Other notable decliners include Kinder Morgan (KMI -5%), Williams Partners (WPZ -4.4%), EOG Resources (EOG -3.4%), Cheniere Energy (CQP -3.6%), SeaDrill (SDRL -3.5%), Encana (ECA -2.8%), Devon Energy (DVN -2.7%), Ensco (ESV -3.8%), Hercules Offshore (HERO -4.7%), Atwood Oceanics (ATW -4.9%), Helmerich & Payne (HP -3.8%), and Pioneer Natural (PXD -2.6%).
- ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, IEO, FENY, PXE, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG, DRIP, GUSH
Dec. 22, 2015, 2:38 PM
- "Quality" oil stocks will perform well during H1 2016 but it will be time to buy “beta” names in H2 as global oil market conditions fundamentally improve over the course of the year, RBC analysts say, adding that a sustainable oil price recovery appears more on the cards in 2017.
- RBC thinks stocks with lower leverage, good asset quality and cheap valuation are likely to perform best and earlier, citing 12 names: Apache (APA +1.1%), Devon Energy (DVN +3.4%), Continental Resources (CLR +8.3%), ConocoPhillips (COP +2.9%), Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO +1.9%), EP Energy (EPE +14.6%), Gulfport Energy (GPOR -0.9%), Newfield Exploration (NFX +0.5%), Oasis Petroleum (OAS +6.3%), Rice Energy (RICE -0.6%), SM Energy (SM -0.1%) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL +6.9%).
Dec. 18, 2015, 11:36 AM
- BP (BP +0.1%) moves to significantly expand its U.S. shale operations by agreeing to acquire all of Devon Energy’s (DVN +2.1%) assets in the San Juan basin in New Mexico and Colorado.
- BP does not disclose the purchase price, but says its expansion includes 480 wells on more than 33K gross acres.
- BP says it owns 550K net acres in the San Juan Basin and produces ~100K boe/day there; all told, the company produces ~290K boe/day in U.S. shale plays.
Dec. 7, 2015, 5:28 PM
- Devon Energy's (NYSE:DVN) deal buy $1.9B worth of assets in the hot STACK shale play in Oklahoma may have the profit potential of the massive Bakken formation, but some analysts are questioning the high price.
- Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR) CEO Harold Hamm has sounded bullish on his own company's well in the STACK and believes it could be as profitable as the Bakken someday, but some analysts do not like the timing for the deal.
- S&P and Moody’s placed DVN debt under review for a downgrade; DVN will be increasing indebtedness to finance the deal at a time when it is already squeezed by low energy prices, S&P said, and Moody's said that "compared to the price of the acquisition, the acquired production and proved reserves is very small, and both properties are still in early development stages."
- "Levering up in this environment [is not] well-received," Wells Fargo's David Tameron says; DVN's purchases are a major cash commitment as the low price environment makes it harder for companies to raise capital, banks have grown warier about extending credit lines to the U.S. oil patch, and markets are more skeptical toward issuance of additional stocks and bonds.
Dec. 7, 2015, 10:35 AM
- The energy sector (-4.5%) paces the opening decline, as WTI crude oil prices -4% at $38.35/bbl following a 2.7% slide on Friday after OPEC's failure to agree on a production target to reduce the oil glut.
- Investors are betting on oil prices staying lower for even longer after OPEC's non-decision, pushing U.S. crude futures for delivery nearly 10 years away below $60/bbl, Reuters reports.
- But the oil glut is set to continue as much because of the U.S. as of OPEC, as U.S. shale drillers have only trimmed their pumping a little, and rising oil flows from the Gulf of Mexico are propping up U.S. production; the overall output of U.S. crude fell just 0.2% in September, the most recent monthly federal data available, and is down less than 3%, to 9.3M bbl/day, from the peak in April.
- Goldman Sachs says it expects oil prices to remain "lower for longer," with a risk that prices could fall as low as $20/bbl.
- In early trading: XOM -2.9%, CVX -4.1%, BP -3.2%, RDS.A -4.2%, COP -4.6%, MPC -3.2%, MRO -7.4%, PSX -2.8%, HES -4.9%, APC -6.1%, OXY -3.1%, EOG -5.8%, DVN -9.3%, PXD -7.2%, APA -3.9%, CHK -8%, CLR -9.1%.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, XLE, UCO, UWTI, VDE, ERX, OIH, SCO, XOP, BNO, DBO, DWTI, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DTO, DUG, BGR, USL, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DNO, FENY, PXE, PXI, PXJ, FIF, OLO, SZO, NDP, RYE, FXN, OLEM, DDG
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