Devon Energy: Deleveraging Is The Top Priority
Richard Zeits • 11 Comments
Richard Zeits • 11 Comments
Devon Has Come A Long Way, But Doesn't Seem Done Yet
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Oct. 1, 2015, 2:56 PM
- Devon Energy (DVN +1.6%) is upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform with a $58 price target at Bernstein, which believes the success of the company’s New Devon strategy has been overshadowed by the macro environment.
- Bernstein sees a recent significant improvement in DVN's well results across the board, which implies a step-up in performance metrics if it is the beginning of a trend, and the ramp of Jackfish-3, which is expected by year-end and translates to "an end to oil sands development capex and a harvesting of oil sands cash flow."
- Dropdowns to Enlink also may prove to be a catalyst in the next few quarters, the firm says.
Sep. 22, 2015, 5:45 PM
- With the outlook for oil prices uncertain, Deutsche Bank's energy analyst team prefers four stocks - Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) and Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) - which have “high asset quality, manageable outspend and a visible line of sight towards improving capital efficiency."
- Consensus estimates imply a modest drop in U.S. exit rate oil production in 2016, but increased drilling efficiencies, an accelerated draw-down in capital efficient DUC well inventory, and an increasingly oil-weighted allocation of onshore capital suggest the group may be able to "keep on keeping on," the firm says.
Sep. 16, 2015, 1:03 PM
- Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) declares $0.24/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 2.36%
- Payable Dec. 31; for shareholders of record Dec. 15; ex-div Dec. 11.
Sep. 4, 2015, 6:45 PM
- The Morgan Stanley commodity team lowers its crude oil price estimates, forecasting WTI at $51.07/bbl at the end of 2015, $56.45 at the end of 2016 and $60 at the end of 2017; the group had foreseen a 2017 price of $80.
- At the firm's recent Houston Energy Summit, EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) was considered the most bullish in terms of expectations for oil prices, expecting "U.S. production to come off 100Mbld per month in year end" for a total decline from a peak of 700M bbl/day at year-end.
- Many other companies in attendance, including Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) and Apache (NYSE:APA), expect a more modest pickup in crude prices.
- Of all the companies in its coverage universe, Stanley sees InterOil (NYSE:IOC), Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) and Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) as offering the highest upside to its price target.
Aug. 21, 2015, 12:34 PM
- "It's worse than you think," says longtime China bear Jim Chanos, having a day on CNBC. "Whatever you might think, it's worse."
- "People are beginning to realize the Chinese government is not omnipotent and omniscient ... like many of us, sometimes they don't have a clue."
- Chanos is short Solar City (SCTY -8.9%), saying it's really a subprime finance company, burning a lot of cash, and with negative EBITDA ... "this environment ... scary."
- He remains short some of the bigger names in the energy exploration and production space - DVN, MRO, OXY, APC.
- I don't like Shell (RDS.A -1.8%) or Chevron (CVX -1.5%), he says, and believes neither Chevron's dividend nor its buyback are safe.
- ETFs: FXI, ASHR, CAF, YINN, PGJ, GXC, FXP, YANG, CHN, PEK, MCHI, TDF, XPP, YAO, GCH, ASHS, YXI, CN, CHXF, FCA, CNXT, CHNA, KBA, JFC, AFTY, CHAU, XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, IEO, FENY, PXE, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG, DRIP, GUSH
Aug. 13, 2015, 7:27 PM
- Oil companies are bracing for "lower for longer” prices as a global supply glut persists, dragging U.S. crude to the lowest close since March 2009 at just above $42/bbl.
- More capitulation notes are out; Oppenheimer's Fadel Gheit wrote today that the "new normal" for oil in a recovery would be $65-$75, and that "the vast majority of oil companies are living beyond their means, with operating cash flow falling short of capital investments and dividend... Unless oil prices rebound significantly above future strip prices, oil stocks could sink further, as takeover premiums shrink with potential sellers significantly outnumbering potential buyers."
- The world’s biggest producers will need to trim investments by another $26B, Jefferies believes; capital spending will have to fall 10% next year, according to Banco Santander.
- CNBC's Bob Pisani says when energy stocks staged a brief bounce recently, investors repeated a frequent mistake: They tried to buy oil stocks ahead of a recovery in crude oil, instead of the other way around.
- The result today was heavy losses for many of the sector's big names: CHK -6.6%, MRO -5.4%, COP -2.8%, APC -2.4%, SWN -4.2%, RRC -4.4%, RIG -6.5%, DVN -3.9%, APA -2.6%, BHI -2.9%, CAM -3.5%.
- ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, FENY, PXE, PXI, FIF, PXJ, NDP, RYE, FXN, DDG
Aug. 11, 2015, 11:49 AM
- Eight Credit Suisse analysts each recently picked their top energy stocks to buy in eight different subsectors.
- Alternative energy: SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) is a “key beneficiary” in the trends toward residential solar and lower capital costs.
- Independent refining: Marathon Petroleum's (NYSE:MPC) deal for Hess' retail business is well timed.
- Integrated oil and gas; Marathon Oil's (NYSE:MRO) upstream cash margins “have room to rise as shale production rises and the oil price recovers.
- MLP: Genesis Energy (NYSE:GEL) is defensive in its direct exposure to commodity price weakness and offensive in distribution growth expected following its recent acquisition of offshore assets from Enterprise Products.
- E&P: Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) has a strong hedge position and strong oil growth relative to peers.
- Oil services and equipment: Schlumberger's (NYSE:SLB) ability to optimize margins and cash flow even in a down market makes the stock attractive.
- Oilfield services and marine transport: Euronav (NYSE:EURN) has flexibility for fleet acquisitions and is free to return 80% of net income to shareholders via dividends.
- Small- to mid-cap E&P: PDC Energy's (NASDAQ:PDCE) three-year projection of up to 40% production growth from Wattenberg even if oil prices remain as low as $50/bbl is impressive.
- Earlier: Credit Suisse lifts view of MLPs, sees 40% upside on revision to mean yield
Aug. 4, 2015, 5:57 PM
- Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) +2.5% AH after reporting better than expected Q2 earnings, helped by growth in its U.S. operations and cost reduction initiatives, even as revenues fell 25% Y/Y.
- DVN says Q2 total oil production averaged 270K bbl/day, up 32% Y/Y and beating the midpoint of guidance by 5K bbl/day, while U.S. oil production averaged a record high of 172K bbl/day, attributed to production from the Eagle Ford and Permian basin plays; including production from Canadian oil sands and heavy crude assets, Q2 total production averaged 674K boe/day, up 9% Y/Y.
- DVN guides its Q3 production outlook to 638K-676K boe/day and its full-year forecast to 649K-684K boe/day.
- Expects FY 2015 capital spending of of $4.4B-$4.8B, ~10% above the $4.1B-$4.4B range projected in February.
Aug. 4, 2015, 4:28 PM
- Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN): Q2 EPS of $0.78 beats by $0.36.
- Revenue of $3.4B (-24.6% Y/Y) misses by $330M.
Aug. 3, 2015, 5:35 PM
- ACHC, ACLS, AFG, AHS, AMSG, ARC, ATVI, AWAY, AWR, BKH, BW, CDE, CENT, CERN, CHUY, CSU, CVG, CWEI, CZR, DIS, DVA, DVN, DWA, ECOM, ECYT, ENPH, ENSG, EOX, EPAM, EPR, ETSY, EXAR, FSLR, FWM, G, GDOT, GHDX, GLUU, GNW, HCI, HIW, HRZN, INAP, INVN, JCOM, JIVE, LBTYA, LC, LF, LGND, MASI, MATX, MBI, MDRX, MHLD, MPO, MRCY, MTDR, NBR, NEWP, NFX, NSTG, NYMT, OAS, OCLR, OFIX, OKE, OKS, PAA, PAGP, PAYC, PBPB, PKD, PQ, PRMW, PTLA, PXD, PZZA, QNST, QUAD, REGI, REXX, RIGL, RLOC, RMTI, RPAI, RXN, SBRA, SKT, SMCI, SUPN, SYNC, THOR, TMH, TRMB, TROX, TTGT, TWO, TX, UNTD, UNXL, USNA, WR, WTR, XEC, XXIA, Y, Z, ZAGG, ZEN
Aug. 3, 2015, 8:38 AM
- Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) appoints COO Dave Hager as its new President and CEO, succeeding John Richels, who announced plans to retire in December.
- Hager assumed his new roles on Aug. 1, the day after Richels' retirement became effective.
- Hager joined DVN in 2009, when he was named executive VP of exploration and production, after 30 previous years of experience in the oil and gas industry.
Jul. 22, 2015, 2:37 PM
- A reduction in non-OPEC production eventually will provide an opportunity for U.S. producers to get back in the game, Credit Suisse analyst Mark Lear says as he upgrades the oil and gas E&P sector to Overweight and changes ratings for several individual stocks.
- Lear sees a handful of names with limited downside at WTI prices of ~$60/bbl and “decent” upside with prices in the $70’s, and expects a better year for natural gas in 2016 as dropoffs in production and higher demand could lead to higher winter prices.
- "We may be early,” but Credit Suisse assumes coverage at Outperform on some E&P stocks: EOG, EPE, PXD, DNR, APC, DVN.
- Upgraded to Outperform from Neutral: HES, CXO, CRZO, NBL
- Upgraded to Neutral from Underperform: MUR.
- Assumed coverage at Neutral: APA, DNR
- Assumed at Underperform: SD, SWN
- Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral: REXX, CRK
Jul. 20, 2015, 2:29 PM
- Whiting Petroleum (WLL -4.1%) is upgraded to Positive from Neutral with a $33 price target at Susquehanna, saying it now believes the valuations of many E&P stocks are finally starting to look more reasonable.
- Drivers from WLL include the company’s reserve growth potential via its positions in the Bakken and Niobara, and improvement in capital efficiency due to its focus on enhanced completions, Susquehanna says.
- The firm names Newfield Exploration (NFX -1.2%), Continental Resources (CLR -2.6%) and Devon Energy (DVN -2.3%) as its preferred oil names and Gulfport Energy (GPOR -3.7%) as its favorite gas play.
- Last week's news of sales of two WLL non-core conventional properties for $185M piques the interest of Capital One Securities, which says WLL's Belfield and Robinson Lake gas plants could be next on the chopping block and could take 2015 asset sale proceeds to the top end of WLL's guided range of $500M-$1B for the year.
Jul. 15, 2015, 9:59 AM
- Suncor (SU -0.4%) says it is planning a pilot project that will use radio frequencies to produce heavy crude oil, which it says is the first such production test of the technology on subterranean oil sands deposits.
- "If successful and commercially viable, [it] has the potential to improve economic and environmental performance in the oil sands by eliminating the need for water” to produce oil, according to SU’s general manager of oil sands strategic technology.
- SU and its partners, Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), Cnooc's (NYSE:CEO) Nexen Energy unit and Harris Corp. (NYSE:HRS), will begin small-scale test production at a pair of wells at SU’s Dover site in Alberta.
- SU tells WSJ the pilot project will cost ~C$44M, and if successful will lead to a full commercial scale field test.
Jul. 10, 2015, 11:48 AM
- Devon Energy (DVN -0.1%) is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral with a $72 price target at Macquarie, on valuation and cash flow growth prospects.
- The firm believes continued improvements in DVN's Eagle Ford operations could further shorten the cash flow pay-back period for diversification into additional potentially high returning domestic projects.
- Macquarie adds that DVN's Canadian oil sands development projects could provide "scalability and a source for leverage to an oil price rally."
Jul. 9, 2015, 12:49 PM
- Devon Energy (DVN +1.5%) is added to the Top Picks list at FBR, which believes DVN's defensive position combined with leverage to emerging areas including the Permian, Rockies and SCOOP/STACK, offers more near-term re-rating potential.
- The firm sees several near-term catalysts including more confidence around downspacing and stacked pay potential in the Permian and continued de-risking and well improvement in the Anadarko Basin given an active H2 schedule.
- FBR feels the past few quarters are a strong testament to the success of DVN's strategic re-positioning and transition to becoming a top-tier operator in its five core areas (Briefing.com).
Devon Energy Corp. is an independent energy company, which is engaged primarily in exploration, development and production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. Its operations are concentrated mainly in Canada and the United States. It also owns natural gas pipelines, plants and treatment... More
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Independent Oil & Gas
Country: United States
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