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- ECA Marcellus Trust I (ECT) announced a quarterly distribution on November 7th of $0.203 for common unit holders, a (27.8%) decline from the previous quarter.
- Distributable income for the quarter was $3.57M, $1.38M below the previous quarter.
- Production for the quarter was in-line with the expected decline model at 1471 Mcf even though one well was shut down for four weeks during the quarter.
- Based on remaining estimates of proven reserves and current expected future gas price levels, the current Trust market price level implies a 7.5% rate of return through Trust termination.
- This article provides a fundamental analysis of production trends, delivery costs and natural gas pricing trends to help investors assess the fair value of ECT as an investment.
- ECA Marcellus Trust I (ECT) announced a quarterly distribution on August 7th of $0.281 for common unit holders, a reduction of $.053 per unit from the prior quarter.
- Distributable income for the quarter was $4.95M, $1.44M below the previous quarter, a 22.5% downward spike.
- Production for the quarter was in-line with the expected decline model at 1516 Mcf.
- The current Trust market price level implies a 6.2% rate of return to investors through Trust termination in 2030.
- Based on the analysis in this article, in my opinion, the units have room to decline in value further before becoming a good value play.
ECA Marcellus Trust I - Still An Expensive Natural Gas Pure Play
- ECT units current trade at a 1.74 multiple of the 12/31/2013 PV-10, comparatively high to industry peers.
- Supportive natural gas derivative contracts expired in March 2014, a negative for distributions beginning in August 2014.
- A model of expected future distributable Trust income shows the current unit traded value is unrealistically high relative to market risk.
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