Wed, Nov. 18, 2:27 PM
- The minutes more or less promise a rate hike next month, and stocks are adding to session gains, with all major averages now higher by 1% or more.
- Where there's not a lot of movement is in interest rates, commodities, and the dollar - all pretty much as they were prior to the minutes.
- Given the near-certainty of higher interest rates next month, 30-day Fed Funds futures are leaving a little meat on the bone for speculators, pricing in only about a 65% chance of a 25 basis point move. The Dec. 2016 futures have priced in a Fed Funds rate about 67 basis points higher than it stands today.
- ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, USWD, GSLC, USSD
Mon, Aug. 24, 12:32 PM
- Stocks are down about 1% (and the Nasdaq just -0.3% as some tech names turn green) -- a bad day on many occasions, but a major clawback from the Dow's 1,000-point-lower opening minutes today, with some more aggressive bargain hunting going on.
- The Dow's down just 140 now. Advancers at the NYSE are up to just under 200, against nearly 3,000 trading in the red. Apple and Intel are the Dow reps that are in positive ground.
- The VIX is around 37 after jumping near 50. Earlier, the NYSE invoked Rule 48 (allowing stocks to open without indications) for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.
- The dollar is still down against major currencies: -2.6% against yen, down 1.2% against the Swiss franc. The euro was up 1.6% against the dollar. Nymex WTI crude recovered a bit but is still down 3.9% to $38.87.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, PSQ, SPXU, TQQQ, SPXL, RSP, QID, SQQQ, QLD, CRF, DOG, DXD, RWL, UDOW, EPS, SDOW, VV, USA, SCHX, DDM, VFINX, ZF, QQEW, QQQE, FEX, JKD, EEH, SPLX, SFLA, EQL, QQXT, IWL, SPUU, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, UDPIX, SBUS, OTPIX, RYARX
Wed, Apr. 29, 2:48 PM
- Down 0.5-0.7% for most of the session, the major averages have rallied to nearly unchanged with 75 minutes to go in the session.
- If anything, the FOMC statement leaned hawkish as the central bankers brushed off the Q1 slowdown as weather-related and gave no indication that a June rate hike is off the table.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was as high as 2.07% this session, but has slipped back to 2.03%. 30-day Fed Funds futures still aren't seeing liftoff until late Q3 or early Q4.
- Previously: FOMC: Q1 slowdown "transitory" (April 29)
- ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS
Oct. 14, 2014, 3:37 PM
- Up 1% or more earlier in the session, the major averages have returned to roughly unchanged, with today's most interesting macro themes (and perhaps tells) being the plunge in oil prices and Treasury yields.
- Short-term rate markets are paying attention, and the expectation for the first Fed rate hike - which was June 2015 not long ago - has now been pushed out to September.
- ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, SYE
- Previously: Fed's Williams not averse to additional QE
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