Fri, Jul. 22, 5:57 AM
- Business activity in the eurozone did not fall as much as expected in July, despite Brexit jitters and the Bastille Day massacre, as Markit's flash PMI for the region dropped to 52.9 from June's 53.1.
- Meanwhile, sterling is down 0.8% to $1.3133 after the British economy shrank at its steepest pace since early 2009, with the flash U.K. composite PMI falling to 47.7 from 52.4.
- "At this level, the survey is signaling a 0.4% contraction of the [U.K.] economy in Q3," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.
- ETFs: EWU, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU, EWG, DAX, GF, EWQ, DXGE, DBGR, CEE, HEWG, TRF, GUR, EWGS, ESR, FGM, QDEU
Sun, Jul. 3, 2:30 PM
- via Morgan Stanley:
- "The bottom line is that Brexit is ultimately a political crisis and one that is not likely to be resolved in a hurry. There will be many twists and turns in the path to ultimate resolution.
- "There may yet be circumstances that give rise to bigger systemically risky events. For now, we don't think we are quite there and we feel that the current architecture of the global financial system is more resilient than it used to be when the last big storm hit us.
- "That said, caution is clearly warranted. The global economy was not in great shape pre-Brexit and is now worse. There is likely to be more downside to come, particularly in European equities and in GBP.
- "We see US assets across the spectrum - stocks, FX, credit and government bonds - as relative safe havens, and parts of securitized products, particularly US resi credit and broad exposure to US housing, as being relatively insulated."
- ETFs: FXE, XHB, ITB, EUO, REZ, ERO, EUFN, DRR, CEE, TRF, PKB, ULE, GUR, EUFX, ESR, URR, IFEU, HOML, HBU, HBZ, NAIL, HOMX, CLAW, DBSE, FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
Tue, Apr. 26, 12:59 PM
- Hungary's central bank lowered its benchmark base rate by 15 basis points to a record-low 1.05%. Though the bank signaled limited room for more cuts, some analysts see the rate falling to 0.75% in coming months.
- Hungary, by the way, is in the negative rate club - the bank's overnight deposit rate is minus 0.05%.
- Emerging ETFs: CEE, TRF, GUR, ESR
Tue, Mar. 22, 4:27 PM| Tue, Mar. 22, 4:27 PM
Thu, Mar. 3, 3:27 AM
- French economy minister Emmanuel Macron says that if Britain votes for an EU exit:
- France will relocate its migrant camp from Calais to Britain.
- France will roll out "a red carpet" for bankers fleeing London.
- That the bilateral relationship between France and Britain could change abruptly, including the creation of new obstacles to trade.
- That Brexit could torpedo a deal with France, known as Le Touquet, that allows Britain to carry out border controls and keep unwanted migrants on the French side of the Channel.
- Macron says that the EU would be weakened as a military, diplomatic and economic powerhouse if the UK left. But irrespective of the outcome of the referendum, the debate has damaged the bloc’s unity. “The EU has no choice but to become a true military and diplomatic power, something it has been always reluctant to be, mostly by lack of ambition.”
- Source: FT
- ETFs: FXE, EUO, ERO, EWQ, DRR, TRF, CEE, GUR, ULE, EUFX, ESR, URR
Mon, Jan. 18, 5:58 AM
- European stocks are offering a chink of light for the global equity gloom, staging an early bounce after last week's bruising selloff.
- Middle Eastern stocks plunged overnight, while Asian bourses remained under pressure, due to lingering concerns about China's economy and a fresh fall in oil prices following the lifting of Iranian sanctions.
- FTSE 100 +0.4%; DAX +0.5%; CAC 40 +0.4%
- ETFs: EWG, EWU, EUFN, GF, EWQ, DAX, CEE, TRF, DXGE, HEWG, DBGR, GUR, EWGS, ESR, DXPS, FGM, FKU, QDEU, QGBR, DBUK, HEWU, DBSE, UK
Mon, Jan. 4, 4:57 AM
- Manufacturing in the eurozone accelerated at the fastest pace in 20 months in December, with every country clocking in output growth and job creation (even Greece!)
- Markit's eurozone manufacturing PMI edged up to 53.2 from 53.1 in November, as the ECB's unprecedented stimulus reached companies and households.
- "While there is much to be positive about in these figures, the underlying picture is still one of solid yet unspectacular expansion," said Markit's Rob Dobson.
- Euro +0.7% to $1.0926.
- ETFs: EU, CEE, TRF, GUR, ESR
Sep. 30, 2015, 5:29 AM| Sep. 30, 2015, 5:29 AM | 7 Comments
Sep. 17, 2015, 4:49 AM
- Link (.pdf)
- ETFs: FXE, RSX, VGK, EUO, EWG, GREK, FEZ, HEDJ, RUSL, EWP, RUSS, EWI, ERO, DFE, IEV, ERUS, RSXJ, EWU, EU, EWL, EPV, EZU, SWZ, NORW, GF, EWD, EWQ, RBL, EPOL, DRR, PLND, DAX, EIRL, EWO, CEE, TRF, IRL, FEU, DXGE, HEWG, DBGR, GXF, EWN, GUR, EWK, EEA, EUFX, EURL, EWGS, FDD, ULE, PGAL, ESR, FEP, UPV, EDEN, DBEU
Sep. 8, 2015, 5:24 AM
- Eurozone Q2 GDP growth has been revised up to 0.4% on quarter from an initial estimate of 0.3%, boosted by household consumption and exports. GDP expanded 0.5% in Q1. (PR)
- Meanwhile, Japan's economy contracted an annualized 1.2% in April-June vs an initial estimate of a 1.6% drop, although capital expenditure fell 0.9%, more than the original estimate of 0.1%, clouding growth prospects.
- Euro ETFs: FXE, EUO, ERO, EU, EUFN, DRR, CEE, TRF, GUR, EUFX, ULE, ESR, URR
- Japan ETFs: DXJ, EWJ, FXY, YCS, JGBS, DFJ, JGBD, DBJP, NKY, JYN, JOF, EZJ, JEQ, JPNL, DXJS, EWV, YCL, SCJ, HEWJ, JSC, ITF, JGBL, JPP, JGBT, QJPN, JGBB, FJP, JPMV, DXJT, DXJC, DXJR, JHDG, DXJH, DXJF, JDG, HGJP, JPN
Sep. 1, 2015, 5:13 AM
- Eurozone manufacturing growth eased last month, despite factories barely raising prices, adding to the ECB's woes as it battles to spur expansion and inflation.
- Markit's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 52.3 in August, below an earlier flash reading that suggested it had held steady at 52.4.
- The figure, however, has been above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for over two years.
- The U.S. PMI Manufacturing Index will be published at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- CAC 40 -2.5%; DAX -2.7%; Euro Stoxx 50 -2.6%
- ETFs: EWG, EWI, GF, EWQ, DAX, CEE, TRF, DXGE, HEWG, DBGR, GUR, ESR, FGM, QDEU, HEWI
Aug. 21, 2015, 4:45 AM
- The widely watched eurozone manufacturing PMI for August remained flat at 52.4, matching the previous month, although the figure was slightly better than the 52.2 reading of economists due to a stronger performance from Germany.
- A similar survey of activity in the eurozone's services sector, however, reached a two-month high for August, pushing the composite output index to a two-month high of 54.1.
- "The flash PMI suggests that the euro zone is still experiencing one of its best periods of economic growth and job creation during the past four years," said Markit's Rob Dobson.
- DAX -0.5%; CAC 40 -0.7%; Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%.
- ETFs: EU, CEE, TRF, GUR, ESR
Aug. 19, 2015, 2:15 AM
- A slump in emerging market confidence has led to $1T in capital outflows over the past 13 months, roughly double the amount that fled during the financial crisis.
- The sustained exodus of capital highlights concerns that developing economies, suffering slowing growth and weakening currencies, are relinquishing their longstanding role as locomotives to become a drag on demand instead.
- ETFs: EEM, VWO, DEM, EDC, ETF, FM, DGS, EDZ, SCHE, EEMV, IEMG, EEB, EDIV, EMF, MSF, DVYE, FRN, EWX, EEV, BIK, IHD, BKF, PIE, ADRE, CEE, TRF, EET, FNI, HILO, EUM, GMF, GUR, GMM, ESR, BBRC, EMFM, PXH, EEMS, EELV, DGRE, EEMA, DBEM, EDOG, EEME, FEMS, FNDE, EMCR, FEM, BICK, XSOE, EWEM, EMDD
Apr. 7, 2015, 4:19 AM
- The eurozone services PMI rose to 54.2 (flash 54.3) in March from 53.7 in February.
- Composite PMI increased to an 11-month high of 54 (flash 54.1) from 53.3. (PR)
- German services PMI grew to 55.4 from 54.7; composite PMI 55.4 vs 53.8. (PR)
- French services PMI slowed to 52.4 from 53.4 and composite PMI to 51.5 from 52.2. (PR)
- "Ireland and Spain continued to lead the charge, backed up by a fast-improving German economy," says Markit, but "rates of expansion in Italy and France were modest in comparison."
- While "the PMIs are indicating somewhat sluggish GDP growth of 0.3% for the first quarter," says Markit, "the pace of expansion looks set to gather pace in coming months."
- However, "an ongoing recovery is no one-way bet," Markit warns, "with the Greek crisis remaining a critical threat to stability in the region."
- The euro takes a dive and is -0.1% at $1.0906.
- ETFs: VGK, EWG, FEZ, GREK, EWP, EWI, IEV, HEDJ, EU, EPV, EUFN, EZU, EWQ, EIRL, FEU, EWN, GUR, FEP, EWGS, ESR, UPV, EURL, DBGR, DAX, ADRU, FEEU, DXGE, FGM, DBEU, QDEU, IEUR, FIEU, HEWG, QESP, HEZU, ESTX, DBEZ, SBEU, FEUZ
Dec. 31, 2014, 1:57 AM
- Lithuania is poised to become the 19th member of the eurozone at midnight tonight, following the path of other former Soviet satellite states, Latvia, Estonia and Slovakia.
- "We don’t have to accept the pressure of being a small country with a little currency," said Valdas Adamkus, who was president of Lithuania for about a decade until 2009. "Now we are members of the eurozone."
- ETFs: FXE, EUO, ERO, DRR, GUR, EUFX, ESR, ULE, URR
Oct. 27, 2014, 6:14 AM
- Stocks in Italy lead European shares lower after some of the country's banks came out badly in ECB stress tests.
- Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena collapses 17.55% after being told that it needs to raise €2.11B. The world's oldest bank is exploring its strategic options.
- And while the tests were otherwise not as bad as expected, the STOXX Europe 600 Banks index is -1.2%. "The stress test results are positive, but the real test will be on European bank lending and on this the jury is still out,” says strategist Luca Paolini.
- KPMG believes banks still face a significant challenge. "The sector remains chronically unprofitable and must address their €879B exposure to non-performing loans as this will tie-up significant amounts of capital," KPMG says.
- Euro STOXX 600 -1.2%, London -0.8%, Paris -0.4%, Frankfurt -0.5%, Milan -2.2%, Spain -1.4%.
- ETFs: VGK, FEZ, IEV, HEDJ, EPV, EZU, EUFN, FEU, GUR, FEP, ESR, UPV, ADRU, EURL, FEEU, EURZ, DBEU, IEUR, FIEU, HEZU, FEUZ, ESTX
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