Wed, Jul. 20, 7:45 AM
- Could it be the experts were wrong? The U.K.'s unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in the three months ended in May - the lowest level since 2005. Though the numbers predate the Brexit vote, that country's version of the Fed's Beige Book reports a big jump in uncertainty, but no evidence of a sharp slowing in the economy since the vote.
- Cable is up 0.4% to $1.3165. The FTSE is ahead 0.2%.
- The Bank of England sat on its hands last week, but promised a rate cut in August. Will it be able to talk its way out of it?
- ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
Thu, Jul. 14, 7:06 AM
- The Bank of England surprises the markets by holding policy steady. The bank does say it reviewed a range of stimulus measures, and that most expect to cut rates at the August meeting. One of the nine members voted for a 25 basis pints rate cut today.
- The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) has reversed from losses to a 1.5% gain vs. the dollar, and is now buying $1.3340.
- Up nicely ahead of the news, Europe's Stoxx 50 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) has given some back, now up 0.55%. The FTSE 100 (NYSEARCA:EWU) has moved just into the red.
Wed, Jul. 6, 11:10 AM
- Cashing out of stocks in one thing, but unloading that office building or shopping mall by the close of business is a different story. Henderson Global Investors suspends dealings in its £3.9B U.K. property fund, becoming the fourth such outfit to do so this week.
- The FTSE 100 (NYSEARCA:EWU) is lower by 1.45% ahead of the close, outperforming Europe once again, where most major markets are down 2% or more.
- That's in nominal terms, of course. The British pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) has taken out new three-plus decade lows, now down 1% vs. the dollar at $1.2892.
- Faring worst in the U.K. are the banks. RBS (RBS -7.7%), Lloyds (LYG -8.9%), Barclays (BCS -3.6%), HSBC (HSBC -1%).
Tue, Jul. 5, 11:55 AM
- M&G Investments suspends action on the £4.4B Property Portfolio fund, making it the third U.K. asset manager to do so after the Brexit vote sparked a flurry of redemptions.
- Source: Bloomberg
- Aviva Investors suspending trading in a fund earlier today, and Standard Life did the same yesterday.
- The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) continues to tumble, now off a full 2% today vs. the dollar at $1.3020. At least in nominal terms the FTSE (NYSEARCA:EWU) is doing fine, closing higher by 0.35% today while broader European markets (NYSEARCA:FEZ) fell nearly 2%.
Tue, Jul. 5, 9:05 AM
- Cable (NYSEARCA:FXB) is lower by 1.65% today to $1.3061 - taking out by a decent margin the panicky lows set following the shock Brexit vote. Alongside that move vs. the dollar, the pound has also tumbled to nearly a three-year low against the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE).
- It's leading to interesting action in equities, with the FTSE 100 (NYSEARCA:EWU) cruising along to a modest gain today, while Europe's Stoxx 50 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) tumbles 1.5%, led by a 1.6% decline in German (NYSEARCA:EWG).
- The Bank of England's Mark Carney late last week more or less promised a rate cut this summer, and hinted at more QE, if necessary.
- ETFs: VGK, HEDJ, FEZ, IEV, EPV, EZU, FEU, EURL, DBEU, EEA, FEP, HEZU
Thu, Jun. 30, 11:09 AM
- "The result of the referendum is clear. Its full implications for the economy are not," says Mark Carney.
- "The economic outlook has deteriorated and some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer."
- The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) has tumbled about 100 pips since the speech hit. It's now buying $1.3328. The FTSE (NYSEARCA:EWU), meanwhile, has risen to session highs, now up 1.35%.
Wed, Jun. 29, 11:14 AM
- With today's 1.25% gain in the S&P 500, the index is only about 2% below the level at which it stood prior to the Brexit vote. The Dow is ahead 1.1% today and the Nasdaq 1.3%.
- Not long before the close, Europe's Stoxx 50 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) is higher by another 2.5%, but a full 7% below its pre-Brexit level. Looking a little further back though, the index is at the same spot it stood at in mid-June.
- The FTSE 100 (NYSEARCA:EWU) is ahead by 2.7% today, and has more or less returned to its pre-Brexit level. For now, according to markets, it's Europe, not the U.K., that will suffer most from Thursday's vote. The pound remains sharply lower from Thursday, however, and that is no doubt making the U.K. picture look a little better.
Tue, Jun. 28, 12:51 PM
- It's not exactly a rip-roaring bounce, but it's a bounce nonetheless, with the Stoxx 50 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) closing up 2.1%, led by 2.6% gains in the U.K. (NYSEARCA:EWU) and France (NYSEARCA:EWQ). Germany (NYSEARCA:EWG) rose 1.9%.
- Alongside is a pretty lame rebound in the pound (NYSEARCA:FXB), up 0.8% vs. the dollar to $1.3330.
- Meanwhile interest rates aren't really buying it. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up just 3 basis points to 1.46%, and the German 10-year Bund yield higher by just 1 basis point. TLT +0.2%, TBT -0.4%
- The Nasdaq's 1.6% gain is leading U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is up 1.1% and the Dow 0.9%.
Mon, Jun. 27, 12:19 PM
- An attempt at an early rally failed badly and Europe ended closing pretty near session lows, with the Stoxx 50 down 2.9%. Germany (NYSEARCA:EWG) fell 3%, as did France (NYSEARCA:EWQ). Italy dropped 3.8% and Spain 1.5%. The U.K. (NYSEARCA:EWU) declined another 2.6%.
- Banks were hit hardest, with the iShares MSCO Europe Financials ETF (NASDAQ:EUFN) down 6.5%. The European banking index is down to its weakest in nearly five years.
- The pound is down 3.6% to $1.3171, its lowest level vs. the dollar in more than 30 years.
Sun, Jun. 26, 8:53 PM
- Dow (NYSEARCA:DIA) and S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures are lower by 0.65% and Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ) by 0.8% in early Sunday evening action.
- Also open for business are FTSE 100 (NYSEARCA:EWU) and Dax (NYSEARCA:EWG) futures, and they're off 2% and 1.5%, respectively.
- In early Monday trade, Japan and Australia are in the green after their plunge on Friday.
- The British pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) is down another 2.15% vs. the dollar and the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) 1%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield (TLT, TBT) is off another five basis points to 1.50% - a new four-year low, and within shouting distance of its all-time low of 1.395% hit on July 23, 2012.
Fri, Jun. 24, 7:32 AM
- Europe's Stoxx 50 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) is down 9%, led by a 12% plunge in Italy (NYSEARCA:EWI) and a 10% decline in Spain (NYSEARCA:EWP). Germany (NYSEARCA:EWG) is off 7%, and France (NYSEARCA:EWQ) 8.7%. The FTSE (NYSEARCA:EWU) is off only 4.5%. Didn't the experts say it was the U.K. that had the most to lose in event of a Brexit?
- S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures are down 3.8% and Dow (NYSEARCA:DIA) futures 3%.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, SSO, VOO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, TQQQ, UPRO, PSQ, SPXL, RSP, SPXS, SQQQ, QID, DOG, QLD, DXD, UDOW, RWL, SDOW, VFINX, EPS, DDM, QQEW, BXUB, QQQE, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, QQXT, SPUU, SPXE, LLSP, UDPIX, OTPIX, RYARX, SPXN, SPXT, SPXV
Thu, Jun. 23, 10:39 PM
- There's still less than half the vote counted, but Brexit has opened up more than a 300K vote lead, with 51.3% of the tally. Based on the districts that have been counted, models say Bremain should be leading, and ITV is on the tape saying Brexit has a 75% chance of winning.
- Both FTSE (NYSEARCA:EWU) and Dax (NYSEARCA:EWG) futures are now down more than 6.5%, and U.S. stock index futures (NYSEARCA:SPY) are down 2.5%.
- The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) is on track for a bigger fall than the day Soros broke the Bank of England. It's down 5.7% to $1.4036 (at one point it fell to a $1.39 handle).
- Asian markets are now sharply lower as well, with the Nikkei (NYSEARCA:EWJ) off 3.1% and the Hang Seng (NYSEARCA:EWH) 2.1%. Shanghai (NYSEARCA:FXI) is lower by just 0.35%.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is now down a whopping 18 basis points to 1.56%.
Thu, Jun. 23, 9:39 PM
- The votes aren't even close to all in yet, but the early count (43 of 382 counting areas reported) shows the "leave" camp with about a seven point lead.
- FTSE 100 (NYSEARCA:EWU) futures are lower by 4.7%, and Dax (NYSEARCA:EWG) futures by 3.1%. S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ), and DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIA) futures are all off 1%.
- The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) is lower by 2.8% vs. the dollar, and the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) is down 0.9%. The yen (NYSEARCA:FXY) is higher by 1.2%.
- Asian stock markets are open for Friday trade, and they're just modestly lower.
Thu, Jun. 23, 7:23 AM
- The U.K. electorate is having its say on EU membership today, but the latest polls show a still small, but growing larger and more comfortable lead for the "remain" camp. Polls close at 5 PM ET.
- The Stoxx 50 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) is higher by 1.7%, with Germany (NYSEARCA:EWG), Italy (NYSEARCA:EWI), Spain (NYSEARCA:EWP), and France (NYSEARCA:EWQ) all ahead by more than 2%, and the U.K. (NYSEARCA:EWU) up 1.4% to a two-month high.
- The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) is up 1.3% vs. the dollar, and the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) 0.85%.
- ETFs: VGK, HEDJ, FEZ, IEV, EPV, EZU, FEU, EURL, DBEU, EEA, FEP, HEZU, UPV, IEUR, FEEU, ADRU, FIEU, DBEZ, FEUZ, SBEU, HFEZ, HFXE, DEZU, PTEU, RFEU, HGEU, FIEE, GSEU
Mon, Jun. 20, 7:21 AM
- A weekend poll showed support for the "leave" option has fallen to 42%, and "remain" has risen to 45%. IG's Chris Weston puts the odds of a Brexit as having dropped to just 30%.
- Europe's Stoxx 50 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) is up 3.6%, with all of the major markets there higher by 3%. The British pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) is ahead a full 2% vs. the dollar and 1.5% vs. the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE).
- ETFs: VGK, EWG, HEDJ, FEZ, EWP, EWI, FXB, IEV, EWU, DAX, EPV, EZU, GF, EWQ, GBB, DXGE, DBGR, FEU, HEWG, EURL, DBEU, EEA, FEP, HEZU, UPV, IEUR, FEEU, ADRU, FGM, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, FIEU, QDEU, QESP, DBEZ, DBUK, FEUZ, QGBR, SBEU, HFEZ, HEWI, HEWP, HFXE, DBSP, PTEU, DBIT, HGEU, FIEE, RFEU, HEWU, DEZU, GSEU
Tue, Jun. 14, 7:42 AM
- The Bank of England is offering the country's lenders extra liquidity to help them get through any volatility surrounding next week's Brexit vote. Banks today tapped the central bank for £2.46 of that cash.
- While that amount at repo auctions isn't unusual (they're held every month), the BoE is offering an extra three auctions in June - two before the vote and one after.
- The stock prices of British banks have been under heavy pressure ahead of the vote, and most are lower again today. In London trade: Barclays (NYSE:BCS) -2.9%, RBS -1.7%, Lloyds (NYSE:LYG) -1.9%, HSBC -1.15%.
- The FTSE 100 is down 1.2%, and the pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) is off 1% vs. the dollar.
- ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
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