Expedia Has 100% Upside, The Bears Are Wrong
Jul. 31, 2015, 1:25 PM
- Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) has surged to fresh highs after beating Q2 EPS estimates (and posting in-line revenue) on the back of a 20% Y/Y increase in gross bookings to $15.1B. Bookings growth was slightly better than Q1's 19%, and better than feared given forex headwinds - a strong dollar respectively had 8% and 10% impacts on bookings and revenue growth.
- On the earnings call (transcript), CFO Mark Okerstrom reiterated full-year guidance for 10%-15% adjusted EBITDA growth (exc. the recently-divested eLong). "Though Q2 came in a bit better than expected, we plan to put that upside back into the business mostly in Q3 to drive continued growth."
- CEO Dara Khosrowshahi noted the core Expedia and Hotels.com platforms continued seeing strong growth, as did Travelocity. He also suggested Expedia could follow up its acquisitions of Travelocity and (pending DOJ approval) Orbitz by acquiring assets in overseas markets, where Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) and its Booking.com platform loom large. "[F]or the time being, we've got plenty on our plates ... We want our revenue outside the U.S. to be bigger than our revenue in the U.S."
- U.S. bookings rose 18% Y/Y in Q2 to $9.3B, and international bookings (pressured by forex) 25% to $5.8B. Hotel room nights rose 35% (28% organic) to 50.6M, while revenue/night fell 16%. Air tickets sold rose 26% (20% organic), and revenue/ticket fell 10%. Sales/marketing spend rose 19% Y/Y to $885.5M, but tech/content and cost of revenue growth was more moderate.
- Priceline is following Expedia higher ahead of its Aug. 5 Q2 report.
- Expedia's Q2 results, PR
Jul. 30, 2015, 4:16 PM
- Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE): Q2 EPS of $0.89 beats by $0.05.
- Revenue of $1.66B (+11.4% Y/Y) in-line.
- Shares +6.85%.
Jul. 29, 2015, 5:35 PM
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May 1, 2015, 11:58 AM
- Expedia (EXPE +7.8%) has rallied above $100 after beating Q1 revenue estimates (while missing on EPS) on the back of a 19% Y/Y increase in gross bookings to $14.3B (+25% if not for forex). RBC has upgraded to Outperform.
- Also: Though a strong dollar is now expected to have a 200 bps larger impact on 2015 adjusted EBITDA growth than previously forecast (it hurt Q1 EPS), Expedia used its CC (transcript) to reiterate guidance for 10%-15% full-year adjusted EBITDA growth excluding its struggling Chinese eLong (LONG -1.6%) unit.
- Q1 adjusted EBITDA was up 25% Y/Y excluding eLong, and down 5% otherwise. eLong had a $33M Q1 adjusted EBITDA loss; its revenue fell 14% Y/Y to $34.2M thanks to a 7% drop in hotel reservation revenue (to RMB190.3M) and a 37% drop in air ticketing revenue (to RMB25.1M). Expedia notes EPS would've been $0.08 higher (nearly matching consensus) if it used a tax rate that assumed eLong's losses remain at Q1 levels or higher for the rest of the year.
- Expedia's core online travel revenue rose 17% Y/Y to $1.17B, and its trivago hotel metasearch unit's revenue rose 43% to $119M. The Egencia business travel unit saw revenue drop 2% to $98M. U.S. revenue (boosted by Travelocity) rose 20% to $768M, and international revenue (hurt by forex) 8% to $605M.
- Hotel revenue rose 14%, with a 32% increase in room nights partly offset by a 14% drop in revenue/night. Air ticket revenue rose 9%; tickets sold rose 18%, and revenue/ticket fell 7%.
- Q1 results, PR (.pdf)
Apr. 30, 2015, 4:20 PM
- Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE): Q1 EPS of -$0.03 misses by $0.12.
- Revenue of $1.37B (+14.2% Y/Y) beats by $20M.
- Shares +6.16%.
Apr. 29, 2015, 5:35 PM
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Mar. 25, 2015, 6:12 PM
- Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) and Orbitz (NYSE:OWW) have both received a request for additional information related to the DOJ's antitrust review of Expedia's planned $1.6B acquisition of Orbitz. Naturally, the companies plan to "respond to the second request and to cooperate fully with the DOJ."
- The deal, together with Expedia's planned $280M acquisition of partner Travelocity, has sparked fears within the industry Expedia will have an oversized position in the U.S. online travel market, thus giving it excessive leverage with hoteliers. Priceline has a larger share overseas.
Feb. 19, 2015, 2:28 PM
- Expedia (EXPE +2%) and TripAdvisor (TRIP +3.9%) are having a good day after Priceline beat Q4 estimates in spite of being heavily pressured by a weak euro, and reported 17% Y/Y bookings growth (above guidance of 8%-15%).
- The online travel giant's Q1 guidance - 4%-11% revenue growth vs. a 13.5% consensus, and 2%-9% bookings growth (14%-21% in constant currency) - is light, but better than feared given forex and Priceline's history of guiding conservatively.
- The shoe was on the other foot last week: Priceline rallied in response to TripAdvisor's results and the Expedia/Orbitz deal.
Feb. 6, 2015, 9:31 AM
- "We are expecting a deceleration in revenue growth in 2015 on headwinds from Travelocity implementation, further impact from the reduction of our hotel margins, the negative impact of foreign currency and the continued success of our loyalty programs," stated Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) CFO Mark Okerstrom on the Q4 CC (transcript). The revenue boost from the Wotif acquisition will partly offset.
- Okerstrom added Expedia isn't "expecting any meaningful adjusted EBITDA growth in the first quarter and expect the bulk of our adjusted EBITDA dollar growth to come in the back half of the year." Excluding the 65%-owned Chinese eLong (LONG -4.8%) unit, which is expected to see losses grow amid tough competition from Ctrip/Qunar, adjusted EBITDA growth is expected to be in the 10%-15% range, with forex having a 5% impact.
- Expedia's Q4 gross bookings rose 24% Y/Y to $11.3B, but revenue rose a more modest 19% and adjusted EBITDA (exc. eLong) 13%. A 10% Y/Y drop in revenue/hotel room night and 6% drop in revenue/air ticket (both hurt by forex) pressured the top line, and a 29% increase in sales/marketing spend (thanks to Google and TV ad spend) pressured the bottom line.
- Some positives: Hotel room night still rose 28%, and air tickets sold 30%. U.S. bookings grew 29%, and international 18% (forex again).
- Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN), which has heavier international exposure than Expedia, is also lower. Its Q4 report arrives on Feb. 19.
- Expedia's Q4 results, PR (.pdf)
Feb. 5, 2015, 4:08 PM
- Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE): Q4 EPS of $0.86 misses by $0.15.
- Revenue of $1.36B (+19% Y/Y) misses by $10M.
Feb. 4, 2015, 5:35 PM
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Nov. 4, 2014, 8:51 AM
- Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) beat Q3 EPS estimates and posted in-line revenue, but offered EPS guidance that was well below consensus and noted macro conditions are mixed, especially in Europe. Revenue guidance (11%-18% Y/Y growth vs. a 23.8% consensus) is also light.
- The online travel giant also reported bookings growth slowed to 28% in Q3 from 34% in Q2 - U.S. bookings growth fell to 9.9% from 20.6%, and international growth to 31.6% from 36.2% - and guided for just 8%-15% Q4 bookings growth. Forex (driven by a weak euro) is expected to have a 500 bps impact on Q4 growth.
- While Priceline has a history of guiding conservatively, the size of the guidance shortfalls is raising eyebrows. Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) -1.2% premarket, TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP) -0.8%. TripAdvisor reports after the bell.
Oct. 31, 2014, 1:42 PM
- Expedia (EXPE +5%) is rallying after beating Q3 estimates on the back of a 29% Y/Y increase in gross bookings (even with Q2's clip) to $13.5B. U.S. bookings rose 35% to $7.9B, and international bookings 22% to $5.6B.
- Hotel room nights rose 24% Y/Y (down from Q2's 28%), and air tickets 30% (up from Q2's 28%). Revenue per room night fell 2%; revenue per ticket fell 7%.
- Sales/marketing spend (much of it on Google) rose 30% to $815.8M, and tech/content spend 20% to $172.8M. $130M was spent on buybacks.
- On the CC (transcript), the company reiterated guidance for 16%-19% full-year adjusted EBITDA growth. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi noted the Travelocity deal is boosting top-line performance, and said the company plans to increase investments in its Chinese eLong (LONG -0.5%) unit, which is facing "challenges and competitive headwinds."
- With marketing spend remaining high and investments in eLong and Trivago ramping, Benchmark expects "minimal EBITDA margin expansion" in 2015. But it also expects 13% sales growth after the Travelocity deal reaches its 1-year anniversary.
- Priceline (PCLN +4.6%) and TripAdvisor (TRIP +2.8%) are getting a lift from Expedia. The Nasdaq is up 1.3%.
Oct. 30, 2014, 4:33 PM
- Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE): Q3 EPS of $1.93 beats by $0.19.
- Revenue of $1.71B (+22.1% Y/Y) beats by $30M.
- Shares +2.6%.
Oct. 29, 2014, 5:35 PM
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Expedia, Inc. is an online travel company. The company provides travel products and services to leisure and corporate travelers, including travel agencies, tour operators, travel supplier direct websites and call centers, consolidators and wholesalers of travel products and services, large... More
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