Express Looks More Like Retail Beta Than Alpha
Thu, Dec. 1, 12:47 PM
Thu, Dec. 1, 7:26 AM
- Express (NYSE:EXPR) reports comparable-store sales fell 8% in Q3.
- E-commerce sales rose 15% to $96.3M.
- Gross margin rate decreased 500 bps to 30%.
- Merchandise margins declined 340 bps due to increased promotional activity.
- SG&A expense rate +20 bps to 27%.
- Operating margin rate squeezed 510 bps to 3%.
- Inventory -6% to $341.9M.
- Store count +5 Q/Q to 653.
- Q4 Guidance: Comparable sales: Negative low double digits; Tax rate: ~39%; Interest expense, net: $0.7M; Net income: $20M to $23M; Diluted EPS: $0.26 to $0.30; Shares outstanding: 78.8M; Store count: 656.
- FY2016 Guidance: Comparable sales: Negative high single digits; Tax rate: ~37%; Interest expense, net: $13.5M; Net income: $55M to $58M; Adjusted net income: $62M to $65M; Diluted EPS: $0.70 to $0.74; Adjusted EPS: $0.78 to $0.82; Shares outstanding: 79.1M; Capex: $100M to $105M; Store count: 656.
- EXPR -13.92% premarket.
Thu, Dec. 1, 6:54 AM
Wed, Nov. 30, 5:30 PM
Mon, Nov. 14, 9:59 AM
- Apparel store stocks are moving higher in a relief rally tied to confidence that consumer spending will pick up with some election anxiety in the past.
- Polling from Gallup indicated that consumers went into the election with a sour outlook, a sentiment seen by some investment firms such as Citi as reversing.
- Early movers in the sector include Ascena Retail Group (ASNA +9.7%), Urban Outfitters (URBN +4.4%), Stage Stores (SSI +6.6%), The Children's Place (PLCE +5%), Gap (GPS +4.3%), Buckle (BKE +4.9%), Express (EXPR +5.2%), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF +3.8%) and Genesco (GCO +3.1%).
- Related: Chico's at 52-week high on post-election confidence (Nov. 14)
- Previously: Companies set to benefit from tax relief (Nov. 14)
Wed, Oct. 5, 11:11 AM
- A number of chain store stocks are tracking higher after a number of positive economic reads came in this week. The rally is somewhat limited to apparel store names and specialty retailers.
- Traders may be looking at data from ISM that indicated a solid jump in services sector activity.
- Also yesterday, Redbook reported the first +1% increase in chain store sales since May and the National Retail Federation forecast a solid 3.6% gain in holiday sales.
- Leading sector gainers include Ascena Retail Group (ASNA +7.1%), Chico's FAS (CHS +3.4%), Gap (GPS +3.4%), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF +2.2%), Stage Stores (SSI +3.6%), Boot Barn (BOOT +0.8%), Express (EXPR +2.1%), and Francesca's (FRAN +2%), Pier 1 Imports (PIR +6%), The Container Store (TCS +4.9%), Restoration Hardware (RH +2.1%), and Signet Jewelers (SIG +3.6%).
Tue, Sep. 20, 11:35 AM
- Apparel store stocks are trading soft after a brutal cut in guidance from Ascena Retail Group (ASNA -26%) cast a shadow over the group.
- During Ascena's earnings call, CEO David Jaffe said a "highly competitive selling environment" and "significant store traffic headwinds" were tough to overcome.
- Former bulls FBR, Oppenheimer, and RBC Capital Market all abandoned their positive ratings on Ascena. While no Wall Street firms were out with a Sell rating on Ascena this summer in front of the earnings dud, SA contributor Terrier Investing issued a warning in June.
- Decliners today include Tilly's (TLYS -8%), Bebe Stores (BEBE -3.5%), Stage Stores (SSI -2%), Express (EXPR -2.1%), Chico's FAS (CHS -1.5%), and Destination XL Group (DXLG -1.7%).
Fri, Sep. 9, 9:27 AM
- A survey from William Blair indicates that teenagers and young adults have increased their visits to malls this year to reverse a multi-year trend.
- In what may come as a surprise, teens ranked malls above movie theaters, restaurants, and sports clubs/extracurriculars as their most popular place to meet.
- Despite the depressed levels of overall sales this year for mall retailers, the read on teens could be a possible indicator that the mall model will evolve and survive, instead of disappear.
- "While overall mall traffic remains challenging, our survey this year noted a material increase in the number of respondents who indicated they are visiting malls more often than last year, perhaps suggesting that malls’ efforts to increase relevancy (through more experiential brands and the addition of attractive entertainment and dining options) are beginning to bear fruit," says Bernstein analyst Sharon Zackfia.
- Mall retailers: AEO, ANF, ASNA, BKE, BOOT, CATO, CBK, CHS, CTRN, DSW, EXPR, FRAN, GCO, GES, GPS, LB, NWY, PLCE, SCVL, SMRT, SSI, TLYS, URBN, LULU.
Thu, Aug. 25, 8:47 AM
- Execs with Express (NYSE:EXPR) had to take their lumps during the company's conference call after a weak report on sales. One of the problems the retailer had was it aimed too low with its targeted demographic as higher sales to the 18 to 21 years old group were more than offset by a decline in the 20 to 30 years old group.
- "While our fashion attracted more customers at the lower end of our target demographic age group, this was more than offset by a decline at the upper end," said CEO David Kornberg.
- "We have to get back to who our core customer is in terms of our grow projection and we have to get her back into the store," he added.
- EXPR -0.59% premarket to $11.87.
- Express conference call transcript
- Previously: Multi-year low for Express after earnings misfire (Aug. 24)
Wed, Aug. 24, 12:48 PM
Wed, Aug. 24, 9:26 AM
- Express (NYSE:EXPR) is now down almost 22% premarket as investors punish the company for a weak Q2 performance.
- The retailer reported that e-commerce sales fell 7% Y/Y, a rate of decline uncommon in the retail sector.
- Deutsche Bank lowered its rating to Hold from Buy. Wedbush and Mizuho were also caught on the spot with bull ratings on Express ahead of the poor Q2 report.
- Shares are threatening to open at a multi-year low.
- Previously: Express plunges after weak sales report (Aug. 24)
Wed, Aug. 24, 9:14 AM
Wed, Aug. 24, 7:17 AM
- Express (NYSE:EXPR) reports comparable sales fell off 8% in Q2. E-commerce sales were down 7% during the quarter to $70.1M.
- The loss of sales volume impacted margin rates. Merchandise margin fell a full 200 bps and buying/occupancy costs as a percentage of sales rose 120 bps. Total gross margin was down 320 bps to 29.9%.
- Looking ahead, the company expects Q3 sales growth in the negative high single to low double digits. EPS is seen falling in a range of $0.09 to $0.15.
- EXPR -19.21% premarket to $12.95. Shares are into 52-week low territory.
Wed, Aug. 24, 6:59 AM
Tue, Aug. 23, 5:30 PM
Tue, Aug. 9, 1:36 PM
- There's a dark mood in the apparel store sector after Gap (GPS -6.4%) spilled its July sales numbers.
- The retailer's 4% drop in comparable store sales for the month missed the -1% mark expected by analysts by a wide margin. Gap had raised hopes for a retail sector comeback with a return to a positive comp in June before the July disappointment.
- On a prerecorded sales call (855-500-0477 participant code 7405599), Gap management dropped a discouraging nugget: "We’re maintaining a cautious view of the retail environment in the second half."
- As a bit of a bellwether, the outlook from Gap is resonating across the retail sector. There's also a cut on same-store estimates for Target from Cleveland Research which could be drawing some attention.
- Retail decliners: Tailored Brands (TLRD -5.5%), Ascena Retail Group (ASNA -4.7%), Express (EXPR -4.4%), Citi Trends (CTRN -3.3%), Buckle (BKE -3.4%), Cato (CATO -3.3%), American Eagles Outfitters AEO, Abercrombie & Fitch ANF, Chico's FAS (CHS -2.6%), Kohl's (KSS -3.7%), Dillard's (DDS -2.9%), Macy's (M -2.4%), Fred's (FRED -3.3%), Target (TGT -3.1%), Tuesday Morning (TUES -1.5%), L Brands (LB -1.9%), Christopher & Banks (CBK -2.6%).