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Dec. 1, 2015, 8:08 AM
Nov. 25, 2015, 9:26 AM
- The average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. has now dropped to $2.06 per gallon - a mark that is 27% lower than where gas prices stood heading into the holiday period last year. Despite the extra dollars in the wallets of consumers, most forecasts for holiday retail sales are on the modest side (below 4%).
- The extended period of sub-$3 gas prices in the U.S. hasn't exactly lit consumer spending across broad retail on fire (just ask Wal-Mart) - although it has stoked auto sales for the Detroit Three (GM, F, FCAU). The regional casino sector (ISLE, PENN, BYD, ERI, MTN, MCRI) and cruise line stocks (NCLH, RCL) have also benefited more than major chain stores. Some have suggested that lower gas prices are also an understated driver for Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) which both score high on customer stickiness.
- What next? Seeking Alpha's Stock Pitch Contest on retail is still open until November 30 amid the reset on consumer spending expectations. Current long ideas include PLAY, FRAN, CASY, SKX, WMT, PSUN, HGG, PRTY, TJX, TA, VSTO - while short bets on WMAR, TIF, RT, AMZN, UA, LB, and OUTR are on record.
- Related ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, PBJ, IYK, IYC, FXD, PEJ, FDIS, RHS, FSTA, SCC, UCC, RCD, PMR, PEZ, UGE, PSL, PSCC, PSCD, SZK, BITE.
Nov. 24, 2015, 2:06 PM
- TrueCar forecasts new automobile sales will rise 3.9% Y/Y in November to 1,352,500 units. That level of sales would set a record for November.
- Black Friday promotions are anticipated to boost sales volume at the end of the month. Several automakers are already advertising specials for the post-Thanksgiving weekend.
- Sales growth projections by manufacturer: BMW (OTCPK:BAMXY) -0.2% to 36K, Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF) +0.5% to 38.1K, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) +4.1% to 179.1K, Ford (NYSE:F) +4.2% to 194.1K, General Motors (NYSE:GM) +5.7% to 238.6K, Honda (NYSE:HMC) +0.4% to 122.3K, Hyundai (OTC:HYMLF) +6.2% to 57K, Kia +0.6% to 45.2K, Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) +4.1% to 107.4M, Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY) -1.7% to 44.5K, Toyota (NYSE:TM) +4.2% to 191K, Volkswagen (OTCQX:VLKAY) +1.3% to 54.2K.
Nov. 17, 2015, 7:54 AM
- Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) car registrations +8.0% to 69,125 units in October, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.
- Overall EU registrations +2.9% Y/Y to 1,394,223 units in October, led by strong demand in Italy and Spain. Registrations in Germany and France were up 1%.
- Fiat Chrysler market share: 6.3% vs. 6.0% a year ago.
- Fiat Chrysler YTD registrations +13.2%.
- Results include the Fiat, Jeep, Lancia, Chrysler, Alfa Romeo and other brands.
- EAMA release (.pdf)
Nov. 16, 2015, 7:16 AM
- Ford (NYSE:F) and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) will build nearly all mass-market passenger cars abroad by 2019 as a result of the higher labor costs in the new UAW deals, observes Automotive News. General Motors (NYSE:GM) is likely to keep a much higher percentage of passenger car manufacturing in the U.S., although it's also making similar moves to import passenger cars.
- The two automaker will focus their U.S. plants on the higher-margin truck and SUV categories in a strategy that could keep profit per vehicles higher.
- A potential risk with the production strategy is the impact on truck and SUV sales if gas prices were to turn sharply higher.
- Previously: GM to sell Made-in-China Buick (Nov. 12 2015)
Nov. 13, 2015, 5:44 PM
Nov. 3, 2015, 3:49 PM
- U.S. auto sales soared in October with the Detroit Three (F, GM, FCAU) all showing double-digit gains from a year ago. An extra selling weekend helped traffic, while low gas prices drove sales for SUVs and trucks.
- The annual selling rate came in at 18.2M for the month to sail past almost all estimates. Japanese automakers performed strong, while German brands performed better than expected after some spillover from the Volkswagen cheating scandal was anticipated.
- If there's a catch, it might be what the crowding out impact is on broad retail as consumers take on larger auto payments. Retail sales have disappointed in recent months with heavyweights such as Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), and Staples (NASDAQ:SPLS) unable to pull off the comps the auto sector is rolling out.
- U.S. auto sales reports
- Related ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, PBJ, IYK, IYC, FXD, PEJ, FDIS, RHS, FSTA, SCC, UCC, RCD, PMR, PEZ, UGE, PSL, PSCC, PSCD, SZK
Nov. 3, 2015, 8:08 AM
- Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) unit sales +14.7% to 195,545 units to top estimates for a 14% gain.
- Car sales fell 3% to 38,137 units.
- Truck sales increased 20% to 157,408 units.
Oct. 31, 2015, 12:51 PM
- The European Automobile Manufacturers Association issued a statement this week in which it forecasts that a "substantial number" of diesel models will have to be phased out earlier than anticipated.
- The harsh assessment was mirrored by several heavyweight CEOs at the Tokyo Motor Show. The major focus of the event has been next-gen concepts like hydrogen-powered cars and self-driving features, while execs such as Nissan's Carlos Ghosn have marginalized the future of diesel.
- Many automobile industry insiders have noted that diesel was in decline due to the focus on emissions even before Volkswagen (OTCQX:VLKAY) rocked the industry with a cheating scandal.
- The mix of technology, EV, hydrogen, and powertrain changes have kept analysts buzzing over the proper valuations to assign to major players. A reset of demand expectations in China also factors in significantly.
- Automobile industry stocks: DAN, BWA, MTOR, TRW, FDML, DLPH,GNTX, SMP, AXL, MPAA, ALV, MOD, DLPH, VC, THRM, WPRT, GM, F, TM, FCAU, HMC, OTCPK:NSANY, TSLA, OTCQX:VLKAY, OTCPK:DDAIF, OTC:HYMLF, OTCPK:BAMXY, TTM, TSLA, THRM, BWA, JCI, TEN, CPS, LDL, TOWR, OTCPK:PEUGF, OTC:RNSDF, OTCPK:RNLSY.
- Previously: Hydrogen and self-driving cars the talk at the Toyota Motor Show (Oct. 29)
Oct. 30, 2015, 5:42 PM
Oct. 30, 2015, 10:10 AM
- Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) issues a series of recalls which total over 900K, including +200K cars with a potential airbag (not Takata) issue and +275K cars for an anti-lock braking problem.
- Automakers have been more cautious with recalls over the last year after GM was blasted for waiting too long with an ignition switch issue.
- NHTSA recall notice (.pdf) covering the cars recalled in the U.S.
Oct. 28, 2015, 9:21 AM
- Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU): Q3 EPS of €0.20 in-line.
- Revenue of €27.47B (+16.6% Y/Y) beats by €260M.
Oct. 27, 2015, 5:30 PM
- ACCO, ADP, AGCO, AIT, AN, ANTM, APO, ARW, BAH, BDC, BGCP, BOKF, BSX, CARB, CFR, CG, CHMT, CMC, COT, DHX, DORM, DX, EVER, EVR, FCAU, FDML, FLIR, GD, GHM, GNRC, GRMN, HES, HLT, HOT, HSY, HTA, ICE, IDXX, IP, JLL, LFUS, LVLT, MDLZ, NEE, NMR, NOC, NOV, NSC, OXY, PCG, Q, RDWR, RES, ROL, SAH, SAIA, SLAB, SNCR, SO, SONS, SSE, STRA, TECH, TEL, TGI, TKR, UMC, VLO, VLY, VNTV, WBA, WEX, WOOF, XRAY
Oct. 27, 2015, 1:14 PM
- Kelley Blue Book estimates new car sales in the U.S. will increase 12% Y/Y in October to 1.43M units. The research firm lifts the 2015 sales forecast to 17.4M units after factoring in the strong demand this fall.
- The compact SUV/crossover segment is expected to see a 38% sales pop in Oct. to 215K units. The compact car segment was the slow-mover at 3.5% growth.
- Forecasts by major manufacturers are posted below.
- General Motors (NYSE:GM): +10.2% Y/Y to 250K units, market share of 17.5%.
- Ford (NYSE:F): +16.6% to 219K, market share of 15.3%.
- Toyota (NYSE:TM): +9.6% to 198K units, market share 13.8%.
- Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU): +12% to 191K units, market share of 13.4%.
- Honda (NYSE:HMC): +11.4% to 135K units, market share 9.4%.
- Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY): +16.4% to 120K units, market share 8.4%.
- Hyundai/Kia (OTC:HYMLF): +16.1% to 110K, market share 7.7%.
- Volkswagen/Audi(OTCQX:VLKAY): +1.8% to 50K, market share 3.5%.
- Note: This October has one extra selling day compared to a year ago.
Oct. 22, 2015, 10:43 AM
Oct. 22, 2015, 1:58 AM
- Approval of a four-year labor contract with Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU) appeared headed for victory Wednesday night after United Auto Workers members showed overwhelming support for the deal.
- The final results of the ratification vote are expected to be issued today. If approved, UAW President Dennis Williams will next move his focus to winning similar contracts at Ford (NYSE:F) and General Motors (NYSE:GM).
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