FedEx: 25-50% Upside Potential In 12 Months
Elazar Advisors, LLC • 24 Comments
Elazar Advisors, LLC • 24 Comments
Fri, Nov. 18, 9:05 AM
Tue, Nov. 15, 10:47 AM
- Stifel Nicolaus lowers its rating on FedEx (FDX -1.4%) to Hold from Buy after watching shares rise 23% this year.
- Stifel's case for sideways action: "While we do not see an imminent global recession—in fact, we believe there could be further market upside due to multiple expansion in the pre-Trump euphoria—FDX has hit our $186 target price, causing us to step to the sidelines rather than raise our estimates for the target multiple."
- The price target on FDX is kept at $186.
Tue, Nov. 15, 7:13 AM
- The Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index forecasts parcel shipping will increase annually at a 5% to 7% rate to rise 20% overall by 2018. Cross-border shipping is expected to underpin the growth.
- The index measures both volume and spend for business-to-business, business-to-consumer, consumer-to-business and consumer consigned shipments with weight up to 31.5 kg (70 lbs.) in 12 major global markets.
- Related stocks: FDX, UPS.
- Source: Press Release
Tue, Nov. 8, 1:58 AM
- A warning from General Electric has prompted cargo carrier FedEx (NYSE:FDX) to ground one of its planes temporarily.
- Engine parts of the jet were made from the same lot of alloy as a turbine disk on American Airlines Flight 383, which caught fire last month.
- GE subsequently discovered a "material anomaly" related to the disk.
Sat, Nov. 5, 4:46 PM
- Active stockpickers are surging ahead in the race for returns, beating passive funds, Barron's says.
- After a slow start to the year, 60% of actively-managed funds are beating the S&P 500 since July 1, the highest level in nearly two decades. This, at a time when money has been pouring into index funds at record rates.
- Longleaf Partners (MUTF:LLPFX) is the top fund since July 1, +11% in Q2 and 18.2% YTD, more than 3x the S&P. The fund seeks out strong, competitive, financially sound businesses with growing cash flow, run by good operating managers. Positions that have surged include FedEx (NYSE:FDX), where margins increased in express and ground divisions, amid expectations that its acquisition of TNT Express will create sizable synergies.
- The other top-five performers are: Parnassus Endeavor (MUTF:PARWX), up 9.2%; Invesco Value Opportunities (MUTF:VVOAX), up 8.8%; Poplar Forest Partners (MUTF:PFPFX), up 8.7%; Dodge & Cox Stock (MUTF:DODGX), up 8.7%.
- Second-half returns for the largest actively managed funds are also strong: American Funds: Growth Fund of America (MUTF:AGTHX), up 4.7%; Fidelity Contrafund (MUTF:FCNTX), up 3.6%; American Funds: Washington Mutual (MUTF:AWSHX), up 0.8%; American Funds: The Investment Company of America (MUTF:AIVSX), up 2%; American Funds: Fundamental Investors (MUTF:ANCFX), up 3.1%.
Sat, Oct. 29, 10:42 AM
- The trucking industry is anxiously waiting for the release of key heavy-duty truck order releases next week as it assesses demand for 2017.
- Overcapacity has impacted trucking pricing this year and forced several companies to idle parts of their fleets and rethink strategy. More than half of trucking stocks with a market cap of over $50M are showing a negative YTD return.
- There's a sense that the extended downturn in freight demand could be bottoming out, a theory that could be confirmed by the upcoming reports from ACT Research and FTR.
- Looking further down the road, it can't be ignored that autonomous vehicle technology could have an impact with trucking services, logistics firms and truck makers. The dramatic delivery of 50K Budweisers (NYSE:BUD) by self-driving transport company Otto (Private:UBER) is considered by some analysts as much more than a publicity stunt.
- Ford (NYSE:F) announced last summer that it's developing smaller self-driving delivery trucks and Google has a USPTO-approved patent on a self-driving delivery truck. On the long-haul side, Daimler's (OTCPK:DDAIF) Freightliner is still testing autonomous 18-wheelers.
- Related article: MIT Technology Review on Uber Freight
- Related stocks: ULH, USAK, SAIA, PATI, PTSI, JBHT, KNX, SWFT, LSTR, MRTN, HTLD, WERN, ECHO, ODFL, CVTI, CGI, ARCB, YRCW, NAV, CMI, PCAR, FDX, UPS.
Thu, Oct. 27, 9:47 AM
- There's some mind-blowing numbers out on e-commerce as part of the 2016 Adobe holiday season forecast.
- E-commerce sales are expected to increase 11% this year to $91.6B. Though the pace is slower than what was seen in some recent years, it still triples the overall growth rate in retail.
- Cyber Monday is set to be the largest online shopping day of all time, with $3.36B in sales anticipated.
- Large retailers are seen outpacing smaller retailers by a wide margin, 17% growth vs. 7% growth. That means more market share for Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT), Best (NYSE:BBY) and Staples (NASDAQ:SPLS) in comparison to chains which already have a harder time leveraging their shipping costs.
- Adobe says hot gifts this year will include virtual reality devices, Pokemon, Barbie, Lego, Hot Wheels and Frozen toys.
- A stretching out of the holiday season from early October until past Christmas could help FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and UPS (NYSE:UPS) manage the logistics more efficiently.
- Related stocks: SNE, HAS, MAT, NILE, EBAY, DIS.
- Related ETFs: IBUY, XRT.
- Full Adobe report
Sat, Oct. 22, 10:42 AM
- While Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) may have grabbed some headlines this week for its ambitious goals with autonomous driving (SAE level 5), the technology is being widely discussed across industries as a potential future reality.
- At a real estate conference in New York this week, a panel member called autonomous vehicles the biggest tech news concerning real estate in the last ten years. Some see a future reversal of urbanization trends in a development that could have significant investment implications.
- City planners and architects are already thinking of next-gen design. A paper titled "Beyond Google's Cute Car" (.pdf version) is a good example of how cities are being reimagined.
- Then there's this from the man who designed the 2015 Ford Mustang. "The next 10 years in this business is going to be the biggest change and challenge since the turn of the last century when cars took over for horses," said Ford design chief Moray Callum. Ford (NYSE:F) aims to have a high-volume, fully autonomous SAE level 4-capable vehicle in commercial operation in 2021.
- Self-driving car development is a topic of discussion on FedEx (NYSE:FDX), UPS (NYSE:UPS), Lyft (Private:LYFT), Uber (Private:UBER), Hertz Global (NYSE:HTZ), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Avis Budget (NASDAQ:CAR), Domino's Pizza (NYSE:DPZ) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). Earnings season is just heating up, but a host of companies -- including OTCPK:TMOAF, OTCPK:DDAIF, OTCPK:VOLVY, MXIM, CPRT, WBC, GNTX and XLNX -- have already talked up the trend on their conference calls. GM reports earnings this week and will update on any self-driving Chevy Bolt plans.
- Looking ahead, insurance companies, chipmakers, truckers and cybersecurity firms (NYSEARCA:HACK) will be firmly in the self-driving conversation.
- So who has a profitable trade idea off of the evolution of cars?
Tue, Oct. 18, 9:34 AM
- FedEx (NYSE:FDX) plans to spend €1.4B ($1.54B) to double the shipping capacity out of the Charles de Gaulle International Airport outside of Paris.
- The total includes €200M in expanding the facility and €1.2M in rent for 30 years.
- The large investment is interesting in light of the U.K. vote to leave the European Union. That point wasn't lost on French president Francois Hollande who mentioned it in a statement.
- "Britain's decision to leave the European Union should make us seek even more investments, make us showcase France's attractiveness," extolled Hollande.
- ETFs: EWQ
Sat, Oct. 15, 11:43 AM
- E-commerce sales during the holiday season are forecast to increase 17.2% this year to $94.71B, which represents a record 10.2% of all retail sales for the period.
- The +17% growth also represents the fastest pace for holiday e-commerce sales since 2011.
- Impressively, Amazon is expected to grow its holiday e-commerce market share above the 25% it took down last year.
- Outside of Amazon, investors can bet on online retail broadly through the Amplify Online Retail ETF (NASDAQ:IBUY). IBUY aims to match the price and yield performance of the EQM Online Retail Index.
- The IBUY is up 8% since launching in April, compared to a 5% drop for the S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT).
- The top ten holdings of the Amplify Online Retail ETF are Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), Grubhub (NYSE:GRUB), Blue Nile (NASDAQ:NILE), eBAY (NASDAQ:EBAY), RetailMeNot (NASDAQ:SALE), Copart (NASDAQ:CPRT), 1-800-Flowers.com (NASDAQ:FLWS), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Stamps.com (NASDAQ:STMP), and NutriSystem (NASDAQ:NTRI).
- This year's e-commerce boom will also be a net positive for shippers FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and UPS (NYSE:UPS), despite the increasing logistical challenges amid a higher mix of large packages. There's also Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) to consider after the company made a dramatic commitment to invest more in e-commerce during an investor meeting a few weeks ago.
- Previously: Winners and losers from the retail sales report (Oct. 14)
Thu, Oct. 6, 2:59 PM
- RetailNext forecasts that Black Friday will lose the distinction of being the busiest shopping day of the year. The research firm expects December 23 to be the day with the most sales and December 17 to be the busiest shopping day in terms of store traffic.
- "As retailers have continued the trend to open more stores on Thanksgiving Day, it has pilfered away both sales and traffic from Black Friday," says RetailNext VP.
- Black Friday falls to the third busiest shopping day of the year in the RetailNext forecast on sales.
- Even slight shifts in consumer buying trends can have an impact on the strategy of retailers, as well as the logistics planning at FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and UPS (NYSE:UPS).
- Source: Press Release
Wed, Sep. 28, 9:52 AM
- Amazon (AMZN +0.6%) continues down a path of building out its own delivery network as it looks to lower shipping costs, reports The Wall Street Journal.
- Despite growing evidence that Amazon's shipping ambitions are more than just a passing fancy or negotiating chip, analysts as well as execs at FedEx (FDX -0.3%) and UPS (UPS -0.5%) are somewhat skeptical that Amazon can self-ship at scale.
- "The level of global investment in facilities, sorting, aircraft, vehicles, people to replicate the service we provide, or our primary competitor provides, is just daunting, and frankly, in our view, unrealistic," says FedEx CFO Alan Graf.
- UPS execs have expressed similar thoughts. Chief Commercial Officer Alan Gershenhorn noted recently that matching the UPS network would be "very difficult" for a rival.
Mon, Sep. 26, 10:28 AM
- FedEx (FDX +0.7%) announces that David Bronczek, CEO of FedEx Express, will take over the new position of chief operating officer on January 1, 2018.
- Beginning January 1, 2017, Bronczek will become the Chairman of the Revenue Management Committee on the board to replace a retiring exec.
- Bloomberg notes the elevation of Bronczek could position him to be the successor to CEO Fred Smith.
- Source: Press Release
Fri, Sep. 23, 8:46 AM
- It's no secret that e-commerce will keep shippers extremely busy during the holidays, but the "intensity of demand" on Monday's has accelerated in recent years, says FedEx's (NYSE:FDX) T. Michael Glenn, expecting Nov. 28, Dec. 5, Dec. 12, and Dec. 19 to rank as among the busiest days in company history.
- Glenn said FedEx has 15% volume growth last year during peak season, with "shifting industry dynamics" meaning more of that is concentrated on Mondays.
- There's also a shift to larger packages as e-commerce spreads to things like large-screen TVs, mattresses, and trampolines.
- Previously: FedEx maintained a Buy at UBS, which sees even more room to grow (Sept. 21)
Wed, Sep. 21, 3:35 PM
- FedEx (FDX +6.9%) is rallying nearly 7% near the close after beating Q1 earnings and revenue estimates and raising its guidance for the full year.
- UBS reiterates its Buy rating and $215 price target on the shares, saying that while comparisons get more difficult looking further into FY 2017, volume and pricing trends remain stable and constructive for FDX.
- The firm believes that the solid quarter, along with the strong long-term potential FDX identified from TNT and the clear communication regarding adjustments, should support a positive response.
Tue, Sep. 20, 4:43 PM
- FedEx (NYSE:FDX) reports operating margin held steady at 9.3% in FQ1.
- Revenue growth by segment: Ground +12% to $4.29B, Freight +4% to $1.66B, Express +0.1% to $6.66B, TNT Express flat at $1.4B,
- Management says the TNT Express integration is "proceeding smoothly" and those costs came in line with expectations.
- The company sees adjusted FY17 EPS of $11.85 to $12.35 vs. $11.97 consensus. Capex spending of $5.6B is anticipated.
- Previously: FedEx beats by $0.12, beats on revenue (Sept. 20)
- FDX +1.11% AH to $164.45.