FedEx: 25-50% Upside Potential In 12 Months
Elazar Advisors, LLC • 24 Comments
Elazar Advisors, LLC • 24 Comments
Sat, Oct. 22, 10:42 AM
- While Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) may have grabbed some headlines this week for its ambitious goals with autonomous driving (SAE level 5), the technology is being widely discussed across industries as a potential future reality.
- At a real estate conference in New York this week, a panel member called autonomous vehicles the biggest tech news concerning real estate in the last ten years. Some see a future reversal of urbanization trends in a development that could have significant investment implications.
- City planners and architects are already thinking of next-gen design. A paper titled "Beyond Google's Cute Car" (.pdf version) is a good example of how cities are being reimagined.
- Then there's this from the man who designed the 2015 Ford Mustang. "The next 10 years in this business is going to be the biggest change and challenge since the turn of the last century when cars took over for horses," said Ford design chief Moray Callum. Ford (NYSE:F) aims to have a high-volume, fully autonomous SAE level 4-capable vehicle in commercial operation in 2021.
- Self-driving car development is a topic of discussion on FedEx (NYSE:FDX), UPS (NYSE:UPS), Lyft (Private:LYFT), Uber (Private:UBER), Hertz Global (NYSE:HTZ), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Avis Budget (NASDAQ:CAR), Domino's Pizza (NYSE:DPZ) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). Earnings season is just heating up, but a host of companies -- including OTCPK:TMOAF, OTCPK:DDAIF, OTCPK:VOLVY, MXIM, CPRT, WBC, GNTX and XLNX -- have already talked up the trend on their conference calls. GM reports earnings this week and will update on any self-driving Chevy Bolt plans.
- Looking ahead, insurance companies, chipmakers, truckers and cybersecurity firms (NYSEARCA:HACK) will be firmly in the self-driving conversation.
- So who has a profitable trade idea off of the evolution of cars?
Tue, Oct. 18, 9:34 AM
- FedEx (NYSE:FDX) plans to spend €1.4B ($1.54B) to double the shipping capacity out of the Charles de Gaulle International Airport outside of Paris.
- The total includes €200M in expanding the facility and €1.2M in rent for 30 years.
- The large investment is interesting in light of the U.K. vote to leave the European Union. That point wasn't lost on French president Francois Hollande who mentioned it in a statement.
- "Britain's decision to leave the European Union should make us seek even more investments, make us showcase France's attractiveness," extolled Hollande.
- ETFs: EWQ
Sat, Oct. 15, 11:43 AM
- E-commerce sales during the holiday season are forecast to increase 17.2% this year to $94.71B, which represents a record 10.2% of all retail sales for the period.
- The +17% growth also represents the fastest pace for holiday e-commerce sales since 2011.
- Impressively, Amazon is expected to grow its holiday e-commerce market share above the 25% it took down last year.
- Outside of Amazon, investors can bet on online retail broadly through the Amplify Online Retail ETF (NASDAQ:IBUY). IBUY aims to match the price and yield performance of the EQM Online Retail Index.
- The IBUY is up 8% since launching in April, compared to a 5% drop for the S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT).
- The top ten holdings of the Amplify Online Retail ETF are Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), Grubhub (NYSE:GRUB), Blue Nile (NASDAQ:NILE), eBAY (NASDAQ:EBAY), RetailMeNot (NASDAQ:SALE), Copart (NASDAQ:CPRT), 1-800-Flowers.com (NASDAQ:FLWS), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Stamps.com (NASDAQ:STMP), and NutriSystem (NASDAQ:NTRI).
- This year's e-commerce boom will also be a net positive for shippers FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and UPS (NYSE:UPS), despite the increasing logistical challenges amid a higher mix of large packages. There's also Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) to consider after the company made a dramatic commitment to invest more in e-commerce during an investor meeting a few weeks ago.
- Previously: Winners and losers from the retail sales report (Oct. 14)
Thu, Oct. 6, 2:59 PM
- RetailNext forecasts that Black Friday will lose the distinction of being the busiest shopping day of the year. The research firm expects December 23 to be the day with the most sales and December 17 to be the busiest shopping day in terms of store traffic.
- "As retailers have continued the trend to open more stores on Thanksgiving Day, it has pilfered away both sales and traffic from Black Friday," says RetailNext VP.
- Black Friday falls to the third busiest shopping day of the year in the RetailNext forecast on sales.
- Even slight shifts in consumer buying trends can have an impact on the strategy of retailers, as well as the logistics planning at FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and UPS (NYSE:UPS).
- Source: Press Release
Wed, Sep. 28, 9:52 AM
- Amazon (AMZN +0.6%) continues down a path of building out its own delivery network as it looks to lower shipping costs, reports The Wall Street Journal.
- Despite growing evidence that Amazon's shipping ambitions are more than just a passing fancy or negotiating chip, analysts as well as execs at FedEx (FDX -0.3%) and UPS (UPS -0.5%) are somewhat skeptical that Amazon can self-ship at scale.
- "The level of global investment in facilities, sorting, aircraft, vehicles, people to replicate the service we provide, or our primary competitor provides, is just daunting, and frankly, in our view, unrealistic," says FedEx CFO Alan Graf.
- UPS execs have expressed similar thoughts. Chief Commercial Officer Alan Gershenhorn noted recently that matching the UPS network would be "very difficult" for a rival.
Mon, Sep. 26, 10:28 AM
- FedEx (FDX +0.7%) announces that David Bronczek, CEO of FedEx Express, will take over the new position of chief operating officer on January 1, 2018.
- Beginning January 1, 2017, Bronczek will become the Chairman of the Revenue Management Committee on the board to replace a retiring exec.
- Bloomberg notes the elevation of Bronczek could position him to be the successor to CEO Fred Smith.
- Source: Press Release
Fri, Sep. 23, 8:46 AM
- It's no secret that e-commerce will keep shippers extremely busy during the holidays, but the "intensity of demand" on Monday's has accelerated in recent years, says FedEx's (NYSE:FDX) T. Michael Glenn, expecting Nov. 28, Dec. 5, Dec. 12, and Dec. 19 to rank as among the busiest days in company history.
- Glenn said FedEx has 15% volume growth last year during peak season, with "shifting industry dynamics" meaning more of that is concentrated on Mondays.
- There's also a shift to larger packages as e-commerce spreads to things like large-screen TVs, mattresses, and trampolines.
- Previously: FedEx maintained a Buy at UBS, which sees even more room to grow (Sept. 21)
Wed, Sep. 21, 3:35 PM
- FedEx (FDX +6.9%) is rallying nearly 7% near the close after beating Q1 earnings and revenue estimates and raising its guidance for the full year.
- UBS reiterates its Buy rating and $215 price target on the shares, saying that while comparisons get more difficult looking further into FY 2017, volume and pricing trends remain stable and constructive for FDX.
- The firm believes that the solid quarter, along with the strong long-term potential FDX identified from TNT and the clear communication regarding adjustments, should support a positive response.
Tue, Sep. 20, 4:43 PM
- FedEx (NYSE:FDX) reports operating margin held steady at 9.3% in FQ1.
- Revenue growth by segment: Ground +12% to $4.29B, Freight +4% to $1.66B, Express +0.1% to $6.66B, TNT Express flat at $1.4B,
- Management says the TNT Express integration is "proceeding smoothly" and those costs came in line with expectations.
- The company sees adjusted FY17 EPS of $11.85 to $12.35 vs. $11.97 consensus. Capex spending of $5.6B is anticipated.
- Previously: FedEx beats by $0.12, beats on revenue (Sept. 20)
- FDX +1.11% AH to $164.45.
Tue, Sep. 20, 4:17 PM
Mon, Sep. 19, 9:49 PM
- A day ahead of its earnings report, FedEx (NYSE:FDX) says its will raise its shipping rates effective Jan. 2, including an average increase of 3.9% for U.S. domestic, U.S. export and U.S. import services, and an average of 4.9% for its ground and home delivery services.
- FDX also says it will increase freight shipping rates by an average of 4.9% and charge more to ship large packages.
- Earlier this month, rival UPS announced a 4.9% average rate increase.
Mon, Sep. 19, 5:35 PM
Fri, Sep. 9, 3:57 AM
- Korean Air Lines, the biggest shareholder in Hanjin Shipping (OTC:HNJSF), has delayed a decision on a funding plan for the troubled company for a second time, adding to the uncertainty of around $14B of cargo stranded at sea.
- With Hanjin's future in doubt, carriers have announced they will hike container freight rates by as much as 50% beginning next month as retailers scramble to secure shipping ahead of the peak year-end holiday season.
- Related tickers: SHIP, EGLE, GNK, SINO, DRYS, NM, SBLK, DCIX, BALT, SFL, KEX, SB, SALT, DSX, GOGL, MATX, EURN, NNA, UPS, FDX
- ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, FXD, RHS, FDIS, FSTA, RCD, PMR, JHMC, JHMS, CNSF, CNDF
Tue, Sep. 6, 3:46 PM
- FedEx (NYSE:FDX) is due to release FQ1 earnings in about two weeks in an off-cycle report that Citigroup thinks could create some selling pressure in front of and in back of the read.
- The pace of the TNT integration and the impact on FedEx's bottom line of the acquisition is still a bit of a wildcard.
- Citi on FDX: "Overall, we think the first half of F17 holds the most integration noise and we think Ground margins will improve in the back half, but ultimately results will be solid. We reiterate our Buy, but are more constructive on stock performance as the FY progresses."
- FedEx ponied up $4.8B for TNT Express last year.
- Shares of FedEx trail the S&P 500 Index and UPS over the last 52 weeks (+11% vs. S&P +14% and UPS +15%).
Thu, Aug. 25, 8:28 AM
- Singapore became the first country in the world to offer a self-driving taxi service with the targeted launch of nuTonomy. A full roll-out of an autonomous taxi service across the nation is expected as early as 2018.
- While self-driving cars from Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), and others have been out testing on the roads for the last few years, nuTonomy's service is the first commercial application of the nascent technology open to public use. Uber (Private:UBER) plans to test self-driving cars in Pittsburgh next month.
- NuTonomy will use human drivers as backups in the initial roll-out of the Renault (OTC:RNSDF, OTCPK:RNLSY) Zoe and Mitusubishi (OTCPK:MMTOF) i-MiEV taxis before moving to full autonomy.
- Other companies with autonomous vehicles on their radar include Mobileye (NYSE:MBLY), Delphi Automotive (NYSE:DLPH), Volvo (OTCPK:GELYF), Ford (NYSE:F), Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA), Toyota (NYSE:TM), Hertz Global (NYSE:HTZ), Avis Budget (NASDAQ:CAR), Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY), BMW (BAMXY), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Honda (NYSE:HMC), FedEx (NYSE:FDX), Lyft (Private:LYFT), and General Motors (NYSE:GM) to name just a partial list -- although analyzing which stocks may benefit from a future of a mix of self-driving cars on the road is a tricky business.
- Previously: Scientists warn on self-driving car rush (July 8)
- Previously: Self-driving car push adds a little buzz for restaurants (Aug. 6)
Fri, Aug. 19, 9:04 AM