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iShares MSCI Global Energy Producers ETFNYSEARCA
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  • Sun, Mar. 20, 9:05 AM
    • In a note Friday, Michelle Meyer, U.S. economist at BofAML, says it's not likely a wave of oil bankruptcies would lead the U.S. economy into recession:
    • ""It is important to note that if defaults rise due to non-macro events – which means without being triggered by a recession – there seems to be somewhat limited feedback into the economy."
    • Meyer says high-yield bond defaults could hit 6% this year. Still... "If we assume the companies who default are average size, this would mean that 600K workers are vulnerable. However, many bankruptcies result in restructuring rather than the demise of the company, suggesting a portion of the workforce would likely be retained. For argument’s sake, let’s say half of the workers in companies going through bankruptcy proceedings become unemployed over the course of a year. This would result in 25K job cuts a month. As we have seen in the energy sector, a lot of these layoffs may already be happening so the incremental layoffs would presumably be less than 25K per month. This is clearly just illustrative and assumes that bankruptcies are narrow and do not spread to the broader economy."
    • Further, Meyer is not seeing signs that oil-sector fears are leading to a broader tightening in credit markets: "While it is still early, there is little evidence of bank credit tightening thus far. "
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DWTI, DBO, DTO, USL, FRAK, IXC, DNO, IPW, OLO, SZO, GNAT, SZC, OLEM, FILL, IOIL, YLCO, EMEY
    | Sun, Mar. 20, 9:05 AM | 78 Comments
  • Mon, Jan. 25, 10:48 AM
    • Energy demand will climb 25% worldwide by 2040, with crude oil demand growing by 20% to 112M bbl/day and retaining its dominant position among energy sources, Exxon Mobil (XOM -1.1%) says in its annual long-term energy outlook.
    • Because of efforts to reduce greenhouse gases and efficiency gains, XOM sees energy-related carbon dioxide emissions peaking around 2030 before starting to drop, while emissions in developed countries are seen falling by ~20% from 2014 to 2040.
    • XOM sees coal use for power generation declining to ~30% of the world's electricity in 2040, from 40% in 2014, while natural gas will pull even with coal, and wind and solar will provide more than 10%, up from ~4%.
    • ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, IXC, FENY, IPW, FIF, PXJ, RYE, FXN, GNAT, SZC, DDG, FILL
    | Mon, Jan. 25, 10:48 AM | 44 Comments
  • Dec. 1, 2015, 6:55 PM
    • The world's oil companies have canceled or delayed final investment decisions on ~150 projects that could wipe out 19M bbl/day from the world’s hydrocarbons and stay underground for several years longer than expected amid lower crude oil prices, according to a new report from Tudor Pickering Holt.
    • Canada and Norway top the investment bank’s list of deferred projects by country, while surprisingly few deepwater projects have been deferred in the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil.
    • The biggest oil companies account for a third of the 150 projects Tudor Pickering says have been delayed or canceled, a scale that “suggests that companies will have real growth issues toward the end of the decade,” and some will have to buy smaller rivals to make up for it.
    • BP and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have deferred the largest number of projects, while Exxon (NYSE:XOM) could delay the most oil barrels (~2.5M bbl/day of production capacity from 25 projects); Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) is deferring 1.7M bbl/day, but its deal to buy BG Group and its deepwater fields off Brazil has alleviated many of the growth issues it might otherwise face.
    • ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, IEO, IXC, FENY, PXE, IPW, PXJ, FIF, NDP, RYE, FXN, GNAT, SZC, DDG, FILL
    | Dec. 1, 2015, 6:55 PM | 51 Comments
  • Apr. 8, 2015, 3:48 AM
    | Apr. 8, 2015, 3:48 AM | 7 Comments
  • Nov. 13, 2014, 3:20 PM
    | Nov. 13, 2014, 3:20 PM | 48 Comments
  • Jun. 3, 2014, 2:22 PM
    • Meeting the world’s energy supply needs by 2035 will require more than $48T of investment, with more than half needed to compensate for declining output at mature oil and gas fields and the rest on finding new supplies to meet rising demand, the IEA says in a new report.
    • North American shale output is forecast to tail off from the middle of next decade, restoring the importance of supplies from the Middle East and OPEC.
    • Europe could face an energy shortfall if power companies and oil producers fail to invest ~$2.2T through 2035 to replace aging electricity infrastructure and meet regulatory goals to reduce carbon emissions, according to the agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy.
    • ETFs: XLE, ERX, KOL, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, GASL, DUG, FRAK, IYE, IEO, IXC, GASX, PXE, IPW, PXJ, FENY, RYE, FXN, GNAT, DDG, FILL, EMEY
    | Jun. 3, 2014, 2:22 PM | 5 Comments
  • May 19, 2014, 7:17 PM
    • Mexico, Iran and other countries that once played hardball with big oil companies are now rolling out the welcome mat, offering generous deals in the hope they will bring capital to stimulate output.
    • But it isn't certain the big oil firms will want to return to all those countries, as the economics of the oil business may be changing to favor different kinds of exploration projects elsewhere in the world, WSJ reports.
    • The biggest shake-up is coming in Mexico, where production has been falling steadily while rising electricity demand has forced dependency on imported natural gas and sent prices soaring; Total (TOT), Chesapeake (CHK) and Chevron (CVX) have expressed interest in entering the country.
    • Iran is considering big changes to its current stringent oil terms, but some analysts say "it will be a slow process to get Western oil companies back to Iran... Iran's reservoirs are prolific, but they are also complex and in poor shape."
    • Also, he Ukraine crisis has reinforced the trend in thinking about geopolitical risk as being a big factor.
    • ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, GASL, DUG, XES, IYE, IEO, IXC, IEZ, GASX, PXE, IPW, PXJ, BARL, PXI, PSCE, FENY, RYE, FXN, GNAT, DDG, IOIL, FILL
    | May 19, 2014, 7:17 PM | 7 Comments
  • May 12, 2014, 4:41 AM
    • Saudi Arabia could increase oil production if the tension between Russia and Ukraine causes any market shortages, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said today at an energy conference in Seoul.
    • Al-Naimi's comments came after pro-Russia separatists declared victory in a "self-rule" referendum for Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
    • Absent of any crude shortages, al-Naimi doesn't expect OPEC to increase its production cap of 30M barrels a day when it meets next month. "Supply is highly sufficient. Demand is great. And the market is fairly stable. There's no reason for a change," al-Naimi said. He also described $100 a barrel as a fair price "for everybody, consumer, producer and oil companies."
    • WTI crude is +0.2% at $100.20 a barrel, while Brent is +0.3% at $107.80.
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, DTO, DBO, BNO, IXC, CRUD, USL, IPW, BARL, UWTI, DNO, DWTI, SZO, GNAT, OLO, IOIL, OLEM, FILL, TWTI
    | May 12, 2014, 4:41 AM
  • Oct. 2, 2013, 6:45 PM
    • The increase of U.S. energy output in recent years has been widely discussed, but a WSJ analysis of global data shows the U.S. is on track to pass Russia as the world's largest producer of oil and gas this year - if it hasn't already.
    • The U.S. last year tapped more natural gas than Russia for the first time since 1982, and it's catching up in pumping crude; Russia produced an average 10.8M bbl/day in H1 2013, 900K/day more than the U.S. but down from a difference of 3M bbl/day a few years ago.
    • The amount of crude from the Bakken oil field in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford shale in Texas continues to rise rapidly, while Russian output is expected to remain flat through 2016; that's a big problem for Russia, whose oil exports could fall 25%-30% after 2015, reducing GDP more than $100B. (also)
    • ETFs: IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG, IXC, IOIL, AXEN, IPW, GNAT, FILL, RSX, ERUS, RBL, RSXJ, RUDR.
    | Oct. 2, 2013, 6:45 PM | 4 Comments
  • Sep. 28, 2013, 8:25 AM
    • North America will become "energy independent" by 2020 on the strength of the shale revolution and then become a net energy exporter, consultant Wood Mackenzie says in a new report.
    • North America’s energy independence will introduce a new dynamic to coal, oil and gas prices; coal and gas exports will establish a price cap on their respective markets during periods of high demand, and weak oil demand growth will see U.S. tight oil provide a price floor under crude markets.
    • The report says energy independence does not imply a North America entirely detached from global markets; the region as a whole will be dependent on others to clear excess production, and the U.S. will need to import oil for the foreseeable future.
    • ETFs: IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG, IXC, IOIL, AXEN, IPW, GNAT, FILL.
    | Sep. 28, 2013, 8:25 AM | 38 Comments
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