Wed, Jan. 13, 5:06 AM
- The SocGen strategist says the West is about to be hit by a wave of deflation from emerging market economies and that central banks were unaware of the disaster about to hit them.
- “I realize most people think I am talking utter garbage but I’m used to that. And maybe I am! But the truth will come out in the next recession which may be pretty close now,” Edwards says.
- “The previous bear market low was in March 2009 when the S&P reached 666. I think we’ll go below that within this bear market.
- “Developments in the global economy will push the U.S. back into recession. The financial crisis will reawaken. It will be every bit as bad as in 2008-09 and it will turn very ugly indeed.
- “Emerging market currencies are still in freefall. The U.S. corporate sector is being crushed by the appreciation of the dollar.
- He says the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than the Fed realizes: “We have seen massive credit expansion in the U.S. This is not for real economic activity; it is borrowing to finance share buybacks.”
- Edwards attacked the “incredible conceit” of central bankers, who had failed to learn the lessons of the housing bubble that led to the financial crisis and slump of 2008-09. “They didn’t understand the system then and they don’t understand how they are screwing up again. Deflation is upon us and the central banks can’t see it.”
- Note: Edwards's "Ice Age" thesis goes back to Aug. 2008, and was reiterated in Dec. 2009, Sept. 2011, and May 2012.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, PSQ, SPXU, TQQQ, SPXL, SPLV, RSP, SPXS, QID, PRF, SQQQ, QLD, CRF, DOG, DXD, RWL, UDOW, EPS, SDOW, VV, USA, SCHX, DDM, VFINX, IWB, OEF, ZF, SPHB, MGC, SPHQ, BXUB, QQEW, FEX, QQQE, VONE, XLG, JKD, EEH, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, EQL, QQXT, ROLA, IWL, SPUU, ONEK, EQWL, EWRI, LGLV, ERW, EQAL, FWDD, FMK, ZLRG
Mon, Jan. 11, 4:38 AM
- JPM strategists note that earnings expectations have been managed aggressively going into earnings season. Four months ago, the "hurdle rate" for S&P 500 stocks was +5% Y/Y; now it's -4% Y/Y. “If this were to materialize, it would be the weakest quarter for EPS delivery so far in the upcycle.”
- Energy sector earnings consensus signals only single-digit losses, while oil prices are 36% below the 21015 average.
- Sees euro-zone earnings outperforming U.S. for second year running.
- Overall, firm says risk/reward for stocks is poor. Use bounces as selling opportunities.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, XLE, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, VDE, UPRO, PSQ, SPXU, ERX, TQQQ, OIH, SPXL, SPLV, XOP, RSP, SPXS, QID, PRF, SQQQ, ERY, FCG, QLD, CRF, DOG, DIG, GASL, DXD, PBW, RWL, UDOW, EPS, DUG, SDOW, BGR, XES, IYE, VV, USA, IEO, SCHX, DDM, VFINX, IEZ, QCLN, FENY, PXE, IWB, OEF, PXI, ZF, FIF, PXJ, SPHB, MGC, SPHQ, PSCE, BXUB, NDP, RYE, QQEW, FEX, QQQE, VONE, XLG, JKD, FXN, EEH, SPLX, PUW, SFLA, BXUC, EQL, QQXT, DDG, ROLA, IWL, SPUU, ONEK, HECO, EQWL, EWRI, LGLV, ERW, FWDD, EQAL, ZLRG, FMK, CFA, SYE, CFO, LLSP, UDPIX, SBUS, USWD, USSD, DRIP, GUSH, OTPIX, QUS, RYARX, GSLC
Apr. 22, 2014, 2:51 PM
- A "regime change" is at hand, argue two BAML technicians, with mega caps set to take over leadership of the market from small caps.
- The iShares S&P 100 ETF (OEF) is up 1.3% YTD vs. the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) down 1.5%. Over both 5- and 10-year horizons, however, the small caps are comfortably ahead.
- "Mega caps are set up for relative leadership while small caps are breaking relative support and set up for a loss of leadership," setting up a "regime change for the rally that began in late 2012 which was led by small caps and lagged by mega caps."
- ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, RWJ, URTY, SCHA, TWM, RWM, SRTY, OEF, DWAS, SAA, MGC, VTWO, XLG, SDD, VIOO, RSCO, JKJ, SBB, FYX, XSLV, EWRS, TWOK, IWL, SMLV, FMK, PXSC
The First Trust Mega Cap AlphaDEX Fund is an exchange-traded fund. The investment objective of the Fund is to seek investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield, before the Fund's fees and expenses, of an equity index called the the Defined Mega Cap Index.
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