A Closer Look At Franco Nevada's Candelaria Stream
Franco Nevada: The Valuation Dilemma
Quality Doesn't Come Dirt-Cheap With Franco-Nevada
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Fri, Jun. 24, 8:48 AM
- While stock futures remain under tremendous pressure following the Brexit vote, gold miner shares are soaring in premarket action, as the added uncertainty in the global economy sparks a surge in gold prices.
- The Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) +9.5% premarket, putting it on course to open at the highest level since July 2014; among GDX's components, Newmont Mining +7.7% toward a three-year high even though NEM derived 64.1% of its revenue over the last 12 months from the U.K., according to FactSet.
- Among other GDX members, Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) +7.5%, Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) +9.6% and Yamana Gold (NYSE:AUY) +7.2%.
- Also premarket: KGC +8.9%, GOLD +11.6%, GFI +11.8%, RGLD +10.6%, HMY +11%, SBGL +12.4%, AEM +8.4%, SLW +5.6%, PAAS +6.1%, EGO +8.3%, NG +8.9%, IAG +8.4%, FNV +5%.
- ETFs: GDX, NUGT, GGN, DUST, SIL, GLDX, SGDM, ASA, SLVP, RING, PSAU, TGLDX, GDXX, GDXS
Mon, Jun. 20, 10:22 AM
- Gold futures -0.8% at ~$1,284/oz. after weekend polls showed a higher likelihood that the U.K. would vote to stay in the European Union.
- “This is a market that’s going to be very emotional this week” ahead of the June 23 referendum, says Peter Hug, global trading director at Kitco Metals, who believes that broader economic concerns and low interest rates will continue to support gold prices regardless of the Brexit outcome.
- Gold has risen 21% YTD amid worries over global growth and as the Fed has pushed back plans to raise short-term interest rates.
- Precious metals miners are among the biggest losers in early trading: ABX -3.8%, GG -2.4%, NEM -2.5%, AEM -1.6%, KGC -4.4%, SLW -1.7%, PAAS -2.7%, RGLD -0.8%, EGO -1.4%, NG -1.6%, GFI -4.8%, AUY -1.4%, IAG -1.8%, FNV -1%, HMY -2.3%, SBGL -2.6%, OTCPK:NCMGY -5%.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDX, NUGT, IAU, AGQ, GGN, DUST, PSLV, SIL, PHYS, USLV, SIVR, SGOL, ZSL, GLDX, UGL, DGP, GTU, UGLD, GLL, DZZ, SLVO, SGDM, GLDI, ASA, DSLV, OUNZ, SLVP, DGL, RING, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, PSAU, TGLDX, GYEN, USV, GEUR, UBG
Fri, Jun. 3, 3:58 PM
- Gold miner stocks are skyrocketing, with the sector enjoying its best day in nearly seven years, as the disappointing May jobs report helped spark a strong rally in the yellow metal.
- The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX +11.1%) surged more than 10% on heavy volume, and all 24 of the ETF’s U.S. equity components traded higher, with 10 of them enjoying double-digit percentage gains.
- In today's trade: ABX +12.9%, NEM +9.5%, GG +7.7%, AEM +11.1%, OTCPK:NCMGY +10.7%, KGC +15.4%, SLW +9%, FNV +9.1%, RGLD +9.4%, EGO +9.8%, GFI +13.7%, SBGL +8.2%, HMY +13%, IAG +16.4%, AU +14.4%, GOLD +8.6%, AUY +13.9%, NGD +9.6%, HL +12.1%, CDE +11.6%, TAHO +10.8%, NG +12.2%, AG +12.3%, PAAS +8.9%.
- ETFs: GDX, NUGT, GDXJ, GGN, DUST, SIL, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, SGDM, ASA, SLVP, RING, PSAU, SGDJ, TGLDX, GDXX, GDJJ, GDXS, GDJS
Wed, May 11, 11:37 AM
- Goldman Sachs raises its 2017 gold price forecast to $1,150/oz. from $1,000 but says equity investors must remain selective, as the firm issues two stock upgrades and two downgrades among gold miners.
- Newmont Mining (NEM +0.1%) is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $36 price target, hiked from $23.50, as Goldman says NEM as the gem of the group and believes organic growth from Merian is less than six months away.
- The firm also upgrades Kinross Gold (KGC -9%) to Neutral from Sell with a $5.30 price target, but downgrades Franco-Nevada (FNV -2.7%) to Sell from Neutral with a $51 price target and Goldcorp (GG -1.8%) to Neutral from Buy with a $16 target.
- Now read Paul Singer: Gold just getting started
Mon, Apr. 11, 12:39 PM
- Gold miners are surging amid higher gold prices and a positive research note from RBC Capital, as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX +4.9%) powers higher with all 39 of its equity components rising.
- Kinross Gold (KGC +6.9%) and AngloGold Ashanti (AU +4.9%) are upgraded to Outperform at RBC, citing valuation amid an increase in the firm's 2016 gold price outlook to $1,250/oz. from $1,150; the firm says KGC's production profile has improved with the 2015 acquisition of mines from Barrick Gold (ABX +5.6%) and the planned Tasiast expansion, while AU represents the most robust opportunity in its South African coverage, supported by a diverse, low cost asset portfolio.
- Goldcorp (GG +3.8%) is sharply higher despite RBC's downgrade to Underperform, as the firm believes shares trade at a significant premium to Tier 1 peers and management needs to re-establish investor confidence in operations and strategy.
- Also: NEM +5.7%, AEM +4.9%, FNV +2.9%, HMY +3.8%, EGO +7.9%, NG +7.6%, HL +4.4%, GFI +3.1%, GOLD +1.7%, SBGL +6%, SLW +4.2%.
- Other ETFs: NUGT, GGN, DUST, SIL, GLDX, SGDM, ASA, SLVP, RING, PSAU, TGLDX, GDXX, GDXS
- Now read Kinross Gold: Analyst estimates following the news on Tasiast mine expansion
Wed, Mar. 23, 3:49 PM
- The YTD commodity price rally has been driven by incrementally positive data from China but the trend is unlikely to continue, as supply cuts are needed across most commodities, Deutsche Bank analyst Jorge Beristain says.
- Following a strong Q1 in precious metals, Beristain downgrades Barrick Gold (ABX -8.3%), Hecla Mining (HL -7%) and Pan American Silver (PAAS -5.4%) to Hold from Buy and Coeur Mining (CDE -9.7%) to Sell from Hold.
- The firm says it "favors select companies with relatively strong balance sheets and businesses that can defend margins through low cost, contractual sales or patented technologies," and recommends some gold exposure through Newmont Mining (NEM -8.3%) but advises avoiding Sell-rated CDE, Franco-Nevada (FNV -4.6%), Goldcorp (GG -7.1%) and Teck Resources (TCK -14.5%).
Tue, Feb. 16, 3:49 PM
- Gold prices tumbled to their sharpest single-session loss since March 2015, based on most-active contracts, as investors turned more optimistic on the global economy after stock markets rallied and the European Central Bank said it stood ready to boost stimulus measures if needed.
- Adding to gold's decline was a report from Goldman Sachs commodities chief Jeffrey Currie, who said it is time to bet against the traditional safe haven as investor fears are overdone and do not justify the recent rally.
- "On net, fears around China, oil and negative interest rates have likely been overstated in the gold price and other financial markets," Currie says, doubling down on an earlier prediction that gold will slump to $1,100/oz. in three months and $1,000/oz. in 12 months.
- ABX -5.2%, NEM -5.1%, GG -5.5%, AEM -4.1%, SLW -2.9%, KGC -9.5%, NG -5.8%, AU -10.1%, FNV -3.8%, GFI -10.7%, HMY -5.3%, SBGL -11.6%, IAG -10.7%, GOLD -6.5%, EGO -10.5%, AUY -7.1%, HL -7.7%.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDX, NUGT, IAU, AGQ, GGN, CEF, PSLV, DUST, SIL, PHYS, USLV, SIVR, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, GLDX, DGP, GTU, SPPP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, SGDM, DSLV, ASA, OUNZ, SLVP, DGL, DBS, GLTR, RING, DGZ, DGLD, DBP, WITE, PSAU, TGLDX, USV, GEUR, GYEN, JJP, UBG, GDXS, GDXX
Thu, Feb. 11, 3:48 PM
- A day after announcing a share sale to fund its precious metals streaming deal with Glencore, Franco-Nevada (FNV +6.1%) boosts the size of the financing by 45% because of strong demand.
- FNV says the bought-deal transaction will raise at least $800M through the sale of 16.7M shares for $47.85 each; yesterday it had expected to raise $550M in a bought deal.
- FNV now says some of the proceeds may be used to pay down its credit facility, as well as for further investments and to fund the $500M purchase of the precious metals stream on production from Glencore’s Antapaccay mine in Peru.
- FNV has $290M in net debt and a partly drawn $1B credit facility, CEO David Harquail says.
Thu, Feb. 11, 3:27 PM
- Gold stocks (GDX +7.8%) power higher as April gold futures jumped by $53.20/oz., or +4.5%, to settle at $1,247.80, the highest level since February 2015 and the biggest one-day dollar and percentage gain since September 2013, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid the global equity market rout.
- A growing universe of government bonds with negative yields has helped gold, while a lower U.S. dollar has made it cheaper for buyers in other currencies to purchase gold.
- Investor sentiment “seems to be thawing at the start of 2016, with a focus on gold’s wealth preservation and risk diversification properties,” the World Gold Council says.
- ABX +4.8%, GG +4.4%, AEM +8.7%, SLW +6.3%, KGC +14.2%, NG +6.2%, AU +7.4%, FNV +6.8%, GFI +10.8%, HMY +15.1%, SBGL +16%, IAG +12.3%, GOLD +4%, EGO +14%, AUY +9%, BTG +15.2%, HL +8.8%.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, NUGT, IAU, AGQ, GGN, PSLV, DUST, SIL, PHYS, USLV, SIVR, SGOL, ZSL, UGL, GLDX, DGP, GTU, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, SGDM, DSLV, ASA, OUNZ, SLVP, DGL, DBS, RING, DGZ, DGLD, PSAU, TGLDX, USV, GEUR, GYEN, UBG, GDXS, GDXX, QGLDX
Wed, Feb. 10, 5:45 PM
- Franco-Nevada (NYSE:FNV) -5% AH after agreeing to acquire a precious metals stream on production from Glencore’s Antapaccay mine in southern Peru for $500M.
- FNV estimates Antapaccay's mine life to extend until 2030 and would mine 538M metric tons of sulphide ore at an average copper grade of 0.52%.
- To fund the deal, FNV announces a $550M bought-deal financing in which underwriters agreed to purchase 11.5M common shares at $47.85/share, with an option to purchase an additional 1.725M shares at the offering price.
Wed, Feb. 10, 5:40 PM
Oct. 14, 2015, 2:26 PM
- Gold settles at three-and-a-half month highs, rallying $14.50 (+1.2%) to $1180/oz., as soft U.S. economic data and concerns over deflationary pressures in China add to expectations the Fed will delay any interest rate increases.
- Gold is gaining more ground in electronic trading after the Fed Beige Book release.
- The yellow metal's eighth gain in nine sessions has sent the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD +1.5%) past its 200-day moving average, and gold miners have ripped higher, as evidenced by this month's 18% gain in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX +5.6%).
- Top mining stocks including Barrick Gold (ABX +7.9%), Goldcorp (GG +8.5%), Kinross Gold (KGC +8.3%), Gold Fields (GFI +5.4%), Newmont Mining (NEM +5.4%), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM +5.7%), Silver Wheaton (SLW +6.8%), Yamana Gold (AUY +6.7%), Franco Nevada (FNV +5%), Randgold (GOLD +4.8%) and AngloGold (AU +5.6%) are all sharply higher.
- Other ETFs: NUGT, AGQ, GGN, DUST, SIL, USLV, ZSL, UGL, GLDX, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, SGDM, DSLV, ASA, SLVP, DGL, DBS, DGZ, RING, DGLD, PSAU, USV, TGLDX, GEUR, UBG, GYEN
Oct. 8, 2015, 3:25 PM
- Franco-Nevada's (FNV +0.5%) latest streaming deal with Teck Resources (TCK +8.2%) is praised by TD Securities' Greg Barnes even as the market seems to have given FNV little credit, with the analyst noting that the Antamina mine is a top-tier asset and FNV's business model allows it to grow in the current environment of low metal prices.
- Barnes is fine with the anticipated modest 4.2% internal rate of return on the deal, believing that royalty companies are being valued at a much lower discount rate than the base metal mining companies from which they acquire assets.
- TCK had not even reported the silver produced at Antamina since it is relatively immaterial to its core business, Barnes says, "leaving one to wonder if the market put any value on it at all."
Oct. 7, 2015, 10:57 AM
- Teck Resources (TCK +18.5%) and Franco-Nevada (FNV -0.9%) announce a long-term streaming agreement linked to production at TCK's Antamina mine in Peru, in which FNV agrees to pay TCK $610M to help fund operations at the mine in exchange for a share of silver production.
- The stream on TCK’s share of silver in the mine also includes 5% of the spot price at the time of delivery; FNV expects to receive 900K-1.1M oz. this quarter and average annual contributions of 2.8M-3.2M oz.
- TCK owns 22.5% of Antamina, which last year produced 345K tons of copper, 211K tons of zinc, 3.1M lbs. of molybdenum and 12M oz. of silver; other shareholders are BHP Billiton and Glencore, each with 33.75%, and Mitsubishi with 10%.
Sep. 16, 2015, 3:45 PM
- Newmont Mining's (NEM +5.8%) stock price target is lowered to $22 from $24 by RBC analysts on the back of downward revisions to base metal price assumptions, including a ~15% reduction to the firm's 2015-19 average copper price assumptions.
- NEM has significant leverage to copper prices through its Batu Hijau, Boddington and Phoenix mines, prompting the firm to reduce its EPS and cash flow/share estimates.
- But for today at least, shares of gold miners are surging, following gold prices higher as optimism grows that the Fed will not raise rates tomorrow: ABX +7%, KGC +9.2%, GG +5.3%, AEM +6.9%, GFI +3%, SBGL +2.4%, FNV +4.7%, NGD +7.1%, AUY +9.1%, IAG +7.6%, BTG +4.1%, EGO +9.7%, SLW +7.1%.
Sep. 11, 2015, 2:39 PM
- Canadian and South African gold stocks slide as prices for the precious metal capped a third straight week of losses and the imminent re-balancing of fund portfolios adds to investor concerns.
- Two gold ETFs run by Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF - GDX and GDXJ - are expected to announce upcoming re-balancing changes after the close; both ETFs are on pace to close at their lowest levels since their respective formations in 2006 and 2009.
- The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:SIL) and PureFunds ISE Junior Silver ETF (NYSEARCA:SILJ) also are on pace for their record lows.
- KGC -3.2%, GG -0.5%, GFI -8.2%, AU -4.8%, BTG -5.2%, FNV -1.9%, EGO -0.2%, some of them paring larger earlier losses.
- Other ETFs: NUGT, GGN, DUST, SIL, JNUG, GLDX, JDST, SGDM, ASA, SLVP, SILJ, RING, JUNR, PSAU, TGLDX, SGDJ, GDJJ, GDXS, GDXX, GDJS
Franco-Nevada Corp. is a gold-focused royalty and stream company. It owns a diversified portfolio of royalties, stream and other assets. The company's assets include gold, platinum group metals, other minerals and oil & gas. Franco-Nevada's history root back to 1985. It was founded on October... More
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Steel & Iron
Country: United States
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