Sun, Mar. 20, 9:05 AM
- In a note Friday, Michelle Meyer, U.S. economist at BofAML, says it's not likely a wave of oil bankruptcies would lead the U.S. economy into recession:
- ""It is important to note that if defaults rise due to non-macro events – which means without being triggered by a recession – there seems to be somewhat limited feedback into the economy."
- Meyer says high-yield bond defaults could hit 6% this year. Still... "If we assume the companies who default are average size, this would mean that 600K workers are vulnerable. However, many bankruptcies result in restructuring rather than the demise of the company, suggesting a portion of the workforce would likely be retained. For argument’s sake, let’s say half of the workers in companies going through bankruptcy proceedings become unemployed over the course of a year. This would result in 25K job cuts a month. As we have seen in the energy sector, a lot of these layoffs may already be happening so the incremental layoffs would presumably be less than 25K per month. This is clearly just illustrative and assumes that bankruptcies are narrow and do not spread to the broader economy."
- Further, Meyer is not seeing signs that oil-sector fears are leading to a broader tightening in credit markets: "While it is still early, there is little evidence of bank credit tightening thus far. "
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DWTI, DBO, DTO, USL, FRAK, IXC, DNO, IPW, OLO, SZO, GNAT, SZC, OLEM, FILL, IOIL, YLCO, EMEY
Nov. 5, 2014, 12:45 PM
- Anadarko Petroleum (APC +2.7%) VP of international exploration Frank Patterson worries the shale boom may be less sustainable than it seems, noting that unlike conventional drilling which taps a reservoir where oil or gas has collected, fracking taps the source rock where petroleum originates - what’s left after that?
- Also, young geologists are learning the manufacturing-like process of drilling lots of shale wells at the expense of learning how to explore for new oil, which Patterson calls “potentially a big problem in the future” for E&P companies.
- Meanwhile, Denton becomes the first city in Texas to ban fracking, as voters approved an initiative against the controversial drilling method (NYSEARCA:FRAK).
Oct. 28, 2014, 2:59 PM
- Short sellers have targeted oilfield service companies and the ETFs that hold them, as prices for U.S. crude futures have tumbled 25% since the middle of June.
- Shares of components of Market Vectors Global Unconventional Oil & Gas (NYSEARCA:FRAK) have seen a spike in short interest averaging 9% over the past three months, according to Markit; these companies flourished during the three years when oil traded north of $100/bbl, but investors are now worried about their high marginal cost.
- The Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSEARCA:OIH) saw its biggest weekly outflow last week, as investors pulled out $209M, or 15% of the fund’s $1.4B in total assets.
- Markit says the most-shorted name in the space is Paragon Offshore (NYSE:PGN), with fully 25% of shares out on loan to short sellers; Northern Oil and Gas (NYSEMKT:NOG) has seen short interest jump to 23% of shares outstanding.
- ETFs: XES, IEZ
Jun. 3, 2014, 2:22 PM
- Meeting the world’s energy supply needs by 2035 will require more than $48T of investment, with more than half needed to compensate for declining output at mature oil and gas fields and the rest on finding new supplies to meet rising demand, the IEA says in a new report.
- North American shale output is forecast to tail off from the middle of next decade, restoring the importance of supplies from the Middle East and OPEC.
- Europe could face an energy shortfall if power companies and oil producers fail to invest ~$2.2T through 2035 to replace aging electricity infrastructure and meet regulatory goals to reduce carbon emissions, according to the agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, KOL, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, GASL, DUG, FRAK, IYE, IEO, IXC, GASX, PXE, IPW, PXJ, FENY, RYE, FXN, GNAT, DDG, FILL, EMEY
May 20, 2014, 10:27 AM
- Twenty-seven year old Mark Hiduke just raised $100M for his three-week old company, but he's a Texas oilman, not a tech entrepreneur. His Dallas-based PetroCore, LLC received the commitment from a local P-E firm to buy land and drill shale wells.
- “These guys are going to be the poster children of self-made oil and gas tycoons,” says Nathen McEown, a 33-year-old accountant who organizes networking dinners. “Or they could be the poster children of how too much money is chasing deals.”
- Known as "the great crew change," millennials - who for decades have spurned energy for other careers - are flocking back into an industry where 71% of the workforce is aged 50 or older. The University of Oklahoma's energy management program has sextupled in size to 600 over the last decade. "The shale revolution changed everything," says one of its graduates Ryan Watt, whose Addax Minerals has raised about $35M to speculate on oil.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, XOP, DIG, DUG, FRAK, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG, USO
May 9, 2014, 12:23 PM
- The EPA is taking the first formal step toward requiring oil and gas drillers to disclose the content of fluids they use in fracking, saying it will begin to solicit public comment on whether companies should publicly list the chemicals used to extract oil and gas out of the ground.
- Disclosure of the chemicals by companies could be positive for industry if it can allay fears of fracking opponents about toxic chemicals in groundwater, says natural gas consultant Miriam Swydan Erickson.
- Baker Hughes (BHI) said last month that it will spell out all the chemicals it uses in fracking, but many other major companies have said their chemical formulas are proprietary and disclosure could help competitors copy their process.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, DUG, GASL, FRAK, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, GASX, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG
May 6, 2014, 7:25 PM
- The U.S. energy boom is undeniable - just today, the government said the U.S. next year will import only 23% of the crude oil it needs, the lowest since 1970 - but it's worth noting that the boom has been bought on credit.
- Many oil companies that lead the way in the fracking revolution spend more cash leasing land and drilling than they make selling oil and gas; Standard & Poor’s says 75 of the 97 E&P companies it covers have junk bond ratings.
- Little wonder that EOG - which generated $2.27B from its operations and spent $1.9B in Q1, its fourth straight cash flow-positive quarter - has one of the highest credit ratings (A-) of any oil and gas driller.
- Heard On The Street's Liam Denning thinks E&P investors now may be just chasing momentum, leaving them vulnerable to sharp corrections.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, DUG, GASL, FRAK, IYE, IEO, GASX, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG
Apr. 22, 2014, 5:15 PM
- Some S&P energy stocks set new 52-week highs today, including Hess (HES), EQT and Baker Hughes (BHI), as the sector begins to catch up to the hype about the U.S. energy renaissance.
- Analysts say oil and gas drillers are just starting to reap the benefits of an ancillary boom in energy-related technology and innovation; RBC Capital sees bullish prospects for rig companies, adding that drillers such as Helmerich & Payne (HP), Patterson-UTI (PTEN) and Nabors Industries (NBR) are best positioned to capitalize on the boom.
- BofA/Merrill's Stephen Suttmeier offers a technical set-up, seeing energy poised for a breakout similar to Oct. 2010, when the sector moved above its 13-, 26- and 40-week relative moving averages and outperformed for another six months.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, OIH, VDE, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, DUG, GASL, FRAK, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, GASX, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG
Mar. 29, 2014, 8:25 AM
- The Obama administration is proposing rules to cut methane emissions at sites from landfills to coal mines, laying the groundwork for regulations that could affect the energy and agriculture industries.
- The first big target is the oil industry, with new Interior Department regulations coming later this year to curb venting and flaring of natural gas at wells on public lands and further air mandates possible from the EPA by 2016.
- The oil industry says energy firms already are taking steps to plug methane leaks and capture natural gas flowing out of oil wells, and that additional regulations "could have a chilling effect on the American energy renaissance."
- Agriculture accounts for 36% of human-related methane produced in the U.S., yet proposals for curbing gas emitted by livestock rely strictly on voluntary measures that are largely already under way.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, KOL, OIH, VDE, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, DUG, GASL, FRAK, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, GASX, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FENY, FXN, RYE, DDG
Feb. 21, 2014, 4:49 PM
- ConocoPhillips (COP) CEO Ryan Lance refutes the warnings of shale boom skeptics, maintaining the U.S. shale revolution is only in the “first inning of a nine inning game” and critics shouldn’t assume growing shale production will stop any time soon.
- Skeptics say the U.S. is facing a shale bubble, and energy production declines much more dramatically from shale drilling relative to conventional techniques, but Lance adamantly disagrees, arguing that the industry’s technology advances could compensate for any projected production declines.
- "What we’re learning is we’ve only scratched the surface of what technology can do to improve the outlook over the years,” Lance says, and “this is the layer that can last for quite some time."
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, OIH, VDE, ERY, FCG, DIG, XOP, DUG, GASL, FRAK, IYE, IEO, GASX, PXE, PXJ, PXI, PSCE, FXN, FENY, RYE, DDG
Aug. 28, 2013, 11:59 AM
- Energy stocks (XLE +1.9%) lead the way this session as West Texas crude tests $110, with tensions over Syria continuing to feed Middle East supply concerns; Syria concerns and Libyan export cuts are trumping the bearish influence from a surprise gain for U.S. crude supplies.
- Among sector leaders: MRO +3.3%, EOG +3.1%, CVX +2.5%, TOT +2.4%, WLL +2.4%, APC +2.2%, RDS.A +2.1%, XOM +2.1%, HAL +2%, SLB +2%, COP +1.8%, PSX +1.7%, BP +1.6%, APA +1.6%, HES +1.5%, KOG +1.3%.
- ETFs: ERX, VDE, DIG, IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XOP, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERY, DUG, DDG, FRAK.
- After big losses yesterday, gold miners (GDX +2.4%) are strong today despite only a slight gain in the metal.
- Miners: ABX +3.6%, GG +3.2%, NEM +2.2%, KGC +2%, SLW +2%, GFI +1.2%.
Jul. 16, 2013, 1:13 PM
Energy (XLE -1.1%) is the worst performing S&P sector today with refiners taking the biggest hit following Marathon Petroleum's (MPC -4.9%) profit warning, which came on the heels of Valero's (VLO -2%) warning a few days ago as higher oil prices alongside flattish product pricing isn't a great combination. Others: Phillips 66 (PSX -3.3%), Tesoro (TSO -2.6%).| Jul. 16, 2013, 1:13 PM
May 3, 2013, 8:00 AM
"We don't want to sell in May and we continue to prefer cyclicals (XLY, XLI, XLB, XLE) ," says JPMorgan's Tom Lee, fully returned to his normal bullish stance. He notes client positioning is "dramatically different" from the heavily long stance of the last 3 years at this time. More, the downturn in gasoline prices could ad 50 bps to GDP in Q2, and the rally in high-yield suggests the economy is set to get stronger.| May 3, 2013, 8:00 AM | 1 Comment
Mar. 26, 2013, 5:45 PM
An increasing push to substitute natural gas for oil and improvements in fuel economy could lead to the end of growing oil demand much sooner than expected, Citi's Seth Kleinman forecasts. The last decade's structural bull market was a result of surging global oil demand and weak non-OPEC supply growth; the outlook has now reversed, meaning Brent prices are likely to hover at $80-$90/bbl by decade's end.| Mar. 26, 2013, 5:45 PM | 7 Comments
Mar. 12, 2013, 6:46 PMSurging output from shale oil fields likely will lift U.S. crude output to 7.5M bbl/day by October, topping net imports for the first time since 1996, the EIA says in its Short-Term Energy Outlook. U.S. demand last year fell 400K bbl/day to a 16-year low 18.55M, and EIA expects demand in 2013-14 to barely inch higher, as aggressive conservation and substitution measures have pushed consumption onto a new trajectory. | Mar. 12, 2013, 6:46 PM | 4 Comments
Mar. 12, 2013, 8:18 AM
World oil demand is set to grow 800K barrels/day in 2013, says OPEC in its March monthly report. That's unchanged from a previous forecast and the same as 2012. Supplies, however, are on the rise thanks to shale oil, says Compass Global's Andrew Su, cutting his forecast for WTI crude (USO) to $75/barrel.| Mar. 12, 2013, 8:18 AM | 1 Comment