First Solar Analyst Day: Conservative Growth Plans In Spite Of Exceptional Roadmap
EnerTuition • 23 Comments
EnerTuition • 23 Comments
First Solar Sets Far Too Conservative Guidance
EnerTuition • 29 Comments
EnerTuition • 29 Comments
First Solar Proves Solar Skeptics Wrong Again
Apr. 15, 2015, 1:42 PM
- First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) is among the standouts on a fairly good day for tech stocks in general, and solar stocks in particular. The U.S. solar module/project giant is now up 43% YTD, thanks in part to enthusiasm for its 8Point3 Energy YieldCo JV with SunPower.
- With 8M shares (11% of the float) shorted as of March 31, short-covering could be aiding today's gains. Shares now go for 18x a 2016 EPS consensus of $3.49.
Mar. 25, 2015, 3:41 PM
- A day after posting fresh gains while broader equity markets barely moved, solar stocks are posting steep losses (TAN -4%) amid a 2.2% drop for the Nasdaq.
- Hurting the group's cause: Yingli (down 14.7%) posted a Q4 miss this morning in spite of topping its solar module shipment guidance. ASP declines and a weak euro/yen weighed on the company's top line.
- Chinese firms ReneSola (SOL -7.5%), Daqo (DQ -5.7%), Trina (TSL -4.1%), and JinkoSolar (JKS -3.5%) are among the major decliners. But so are North American firms First Solar (FSLR -3.5%), SunEdison (SUNE -4.2%), Vivint (VSLR -3.8%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -3.2%).
- SunEdison announced today it plans to buy 1K vanadium flow batteries (good for over 100MWh) from Imergy Power Systems to store solar electricity produced by Indian minigrid projects. Along with the move, SunEdison is upping its equity stake in Imergy. The move comes shortly after SunEdison announced it's entering the solar/wind battery storage market itself by acquiring assets from private Solar Grid Storage.
Mar. 24, 2015, 2:24 PM
- Buoyed this year by decent Q4 numbers, solid 2015 guidance, and YieldCo news, solar stocks are adding to their gains today even as the Nasdaq barely budges. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +0.7%) is up 35% YTD and nearing a 52-week high of $47.00.
- Chinese firms are adding to last week's gains - JinkoSolar (JKS +3.7%), ReneSola (SOL +3.3%), Daqo (DQ +4.8%), Trina (TSL +1.9%), JA Solar (JASO +2.7%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +12.5%) stand out. Beijing recently hiked its 2015 solar installation target by 2.8GW to 17.8GW (up from 2014's 14GW), while setting no specific targets for utility vs. distributed solar installations. The lack of utility/distributed targets is expected to make the goal easier to hit.
- U.S. names aren't getting left out: First Solar (FSLR +3.5%) and SolarCity (SCTY +2.1%) are rallying, as are microcaps RGS Energy (RGSE +6.5%) and Solar3D (SLTD +12.7%). Solar3D, a California installer, has risen 58% over the last 4 trading days.
Mar. 10, 2015, 10:02 AM
- Two weeks after announcing they're discussing a joint solar project YieldCo (and seeing their shares soar in response), First Solar (FSLR -1.4%) and SunPower (SPWR -2%) have filed a public S-1 for the JV, known for now as 8point3 Energy Partners. (PR) (prospectus)
- Each company will own a 50% stake. No symbol has been proposed yet; Goldman and Citi will serve as underwriters.
- 8point3 will initially have interests in 432MW of First Solar and SunPower's solar projects; no word yet on initial quarterly cash distributions. At IPO time, the YieldCo will "own interests in six utility-scale solar energy projects, four of which are operational and two of which are in late-stage construction."
- Its initial 432MW asset base will consist entirely of U.S. projects, with most of them in California. They include First Solar's 150MW Solar Gen 2 CA project, and SunPower's 108MW Quinto CA project. 39MW of SunPower residential assets are also thrown in.
- The YieldCo also has right of first offer (ROFO) agreements for 1.13GW of projects, most of which will be finished in the 2015-2016 timeframe. 82% of the projects are in the U.S., 17%, in Chile, and 1% in Japan. 87% are utility-scale, and the rest commercial/residential.
- First Solar and SunPower have joined solar peers in selling off. The Nasdaq is down 1.1%.
- Previously: Analyst commentary on the YieldCo
Feb. 25, 2015, 9:34 AM
- BofA/Merrill and Northland Securities have upgraded First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) to neutral ratings after the company provided mixed Q4 results and light Q1 guidance in the wake of its YieldCo announcement. Needham and RBC have hiked their targets.
- Northland's Colin Rusch: "With FSLR’s announcement of its intention to list a yield co, we are moving to the sidelines for now until further details are available on the yield co." His $51 target (upped from $46) assumes the YieldCo will be worth $6B, sport a 3.5% dividend yield, and have cash available for distribution (CAFD) of $0.08/watt, with First Solar deploying 3GW into it by the end of 2017.
- Needham's Edwin Mok (target hiked by $5 to $75): "With the announced negotiations between FSLR and SPWR to form a joint yieldco, we are not surprised by the lowered 1Q15 guidance ... we believe management is executing its prior plans on project pipeline development, increasing efficiency and capacity expansions. The yieldco strategy coupled with FSLR's strong market position and a well capitalized balance sheet should enable FSLR to extract significant value from the joint yieldco."
- Prior First Solar coverage
Feb. 24, 2015, 5:57 PM
- Along with mixed Q4 results, First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) has guided for Q1 revenue of $550M-$650M and EPS of -$0.25 to -$0.35, below a consensus of $933M and $0.84. The company blames "the completion of the Desert Sunlight and Topaz projects and the retention of projects on balance sheet in relation to the announced plan to pursue a joint YieldCo vehicle with SunPower."
- 509MW of solar modules were produced in Q4, +13% Q/Q and +15% Y/Y. Conversion efficiency (fleet average) rose to 14.4% from 14.2% and 13.4%, and capacity utilization to 84% from 77% and 83%.
- Potential project bookings opportunities are down by 200MW Q/Q to 13.5GW, and expected future systems/3rd-party module revenue up by $100M to $7.5B. However, expected module shipments are up by a healthy 700MW to 4GW.
- Gross margin rose 930 bps Q/Q and 600 bps Y/Y to 30.6%. R&D spend fell 9% Y/Y to $35M, and SG&A 8% to $71M. First Solar ended 2014 with $1.99B in cash/investments, and just $217M in long-term debt.
- Shares are down just fractionally AH, as investors keep focusing on the YieldCo. They rose 10.2% in regular trading.
- Q4 results, PR, earnings slides (.pdf)
- YieldCo coverage: I, II
Feb. 24, 2015, 4:07 PM
- First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR): Q4 EPS of $1.89 beats by $1.13.
- Revenue of $1B (+30.1% Y/Y) misses by $280M.
Feb. 24, 2015, 1:16 PM
- SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) states in its Q4 earnings slides (.pdf) its planned solar project YieldCo with First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) will be a 50/50 JV, and promises it will lower the companies' cost of capital and improve their financing options for solar projects.
- Meanwhile, Deutsche's Vishal Shah (a long-time solar bull) has upgraded First Solar to Buy ahead of this afternoon's Q4 report, and declares the YieldCo could be "one of the best growth stories out there."
- Under "conservative assumptions," he sees SunPower and First Solar respectively having 640MW and 755MW of projects they can contribute, resulting in an equity value of $2.8B. Assuming an 85% payout ratio, Shah sees the YieldCo providing a 5% dividend yield. He adds the companies could each contribute another ~1.5GW of projects (via their pipelines) by the end of 2016.
- Raymond James' Pavel Molchanov compares the alliance to a Duke/UNC or Coke/Pepsi partnership. "By joining forces, First Solar and SunPower can create an asset base that is even larger ... With the S-1 set to be filed in 1Q, we see no reason why the IPO couldn’t take place in 2015."
- The YieldCo news is easily overshadowing SunPower's light Q1 guidance: Revenue of $410M-$460M and EPS of $0.05-$0.15 vs. a consensus of $544.7M and $0.25. Though the company says its "business fundamentals for 2015 remain strong," it's withdrawing its full-year guidance until YieldCo plans are finalized.
- SunPower recognized revenue on 293MW of solar systems in Q4, a little below guidance of 300MW-340MW. It expects to recognize 240MW-270MW in seasonally weak Q1. Q4 gross margin was 20.4%, +370 bps Q/Q and flat Y/Y. Q1 GM guidance is at 18%-20%.
Feb. 24, 2015, 12:45 PM
Feb. 24, 2015, 9:16 AM
Feb. 23, 2015, 5:37 PM
Feb. 23, 2015, 5:35 PM
- ACAS, AMRS, ARC, AWAY, AWK, BBRG, BGFV, BNFT, BOOM, CBI, CENX, CLGX, CLR, CPRT, DPM, DWA, DY, DYN, EIX, EPR, EXEL, FLTX, FMI, FSLR, GB, GNMK, HEI, HEP, HLS, HPQ, HURN, HWAY, INFI, JAZZ, KONA, KRA, LC, MATX, MMSI, NDSN, NFX, NKTR, NLY, NSTG, NUVA, NYMT, ORA, PZZA, QEP, RJET, RLYP, RRC, RUBI, SAM, SGY, SLCA, SM, TNDM, TRNX, TXTR, VRSK, VVUS, WBMD, XCO, Y, ZAGG
Feb. 23, 2015, 4:41 PM
- First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) and SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) "are in advanced negotiations to form a joint YieldCo vehicle (the YieldCo) to which they each expect to contribute a portfolio of selected solar generation assets from their existing portfolio of assets."
- After reaching a deal, the companies plan to do an IPO for the YieldCo. Investors in both companies have been urging them to follow SunEdison's lead in launching solar project YieldCos; each had been non-committal until now.
- FSLR +9.7% AH to $54.44. SPWR +11.5% to $31.00. SunPower's Q4 report arrives tomorrow morning; First Solar reports after tomorrow's close.
Feb. 10, 2015, 4:11 PM
- Tim Cook (NASDAQ:AAPL) states during a Goldman conference talk Apple is partnering with First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) on an $850M California solar farm. Apple is a week removed from announcing plans to invest $2B to build a Mesa, AZ global "command center" for its data center infrastructure that will run on renewable energy. (live blog, webcast)
- Cook also states the Apple Pay rollout is "going faster than I thought it would, much faster." Apple has provided few details thus far about total Apple Pay transaction volumes.
- He asserts once more Apple Watch (set to ship in April) will be a game-changing product, as debate continues to swirl about the size of its market opportunity. "The customizable nature of the Apple Watch is incredible."
- Apple closed up 1.9%, making new highs and becoming the first U.S. company to post a $700B+ market cap along the way. First Solar closed up 4.8%, spiking in the final minutes of trading thanks to Cook's disclosure.
- Update: First Solar has issued a PR about the solar project. It's located in Monterey County, and is expected to be finished by the end of 2016 after starting construction in mid-2015. Apple will receive 130MW of electricity through a 25-year power purchase agreement, and PG&E the other 150MW.
Feb. 3, 2015, 10:59 AM
- Solar stocks are adding to yesterday's gains in a big way (TAN +3.6%) as oil prices (and oil/gas stocks) continue their recent rally: WTI crude is up $1.51 today to $51.08/barrel. The Nasdaq is close to breakeven.
- Also possibly helping solar firms: Canadian Solar's (CSIQ +21.2%) $265M deal to buy North American solar project developer Recurrent Energy from Sharp. The deal, which CSIQ estimates spells a $2.3B+ revenue opportunity, acts as a fresh vote of confidence for the downstream U.S. solar market in the wake of oil and natural gas' big declines.
- Notable gainers (besides CSIQ): FSLR +4%. SPWR +5.1%. JKS +8%. JASO +6.5%. SOL +7.1%. VSLR +6.3%. ASTI +7.7%. CSUN +7.7%. YGE +4.7%. HSOL +8.8%. DQ +3.4%. ENPH +5.8%. TSL +5.5%.
Feb. 2, 2015, 11:30 AM
- WTI crude oil soared above $48/barrel on Friday after ISIS attacked the Iraqi city of Kirkuk, and is holding its ground today. Oil/gas producers are rallying, and so are beaten-down solar firms (TAN +2.2%).
- Notable gainers: FSLR +6%. SCTY +9.2%. SUNE +5.5%. SPWR +4.9%. TSL +6.6%. JKS +4.8%. CSIQ +4.6%. DQ +13.2%. VSLR +4.4%. JASO +3.8%. ENPH +3.4%. HSOL +3.6%. YGE +4.3%. ASTI +3.1%. SOL +3.4%.
- RBC made a contrarian call on Friday, upgrading SunPower, JA Solar, and Trina to Outperform. A long list of U.S. and Chinese solar firms are expected to post Q4 results this month.
First Solar, Inc. operates as a solar energy solutions company. It engages in the designing, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of photovoltaic solar power systems and solar modules with an advanced thin-film semiconductor technology. The company operates in two business segments:... More
Industry: Semiconductor - Specialized
Country: United States
Other News & PR