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  • Fri, Nov. 18, 1:17 PM
    • The strength in the U.S. dollar may just be getting started after post-election forecasts were too conservative, says Credit Suisse.
    • That's after the ICE U.S. Dollar Index increased to its highest level in more than 13 years today.
    • EUR/USD: Credit Suisse predicts a 1.03 exchange rate in 90 days and 1.00 parity in a year vs. 1.05 prior on both and 1.05872 current.
    • USD/JPY: The investment firm targets a 111 rate in three months and 108 in 12 months vs. 100 and 108 prior, respectively.
    • GBP/USD: Brexit uncertainty is a factor of course, observes CS. The forecast arrives at 1.20 for 3-months and 12-months vs. 1.16 prior and 1.2338 current.
    • USD/CNY: Some depreciation is seen being allowed by the Chinese government. CS lines up an exchange rate of 7.01 for 3-months and 7.33 in a year. vs. 6.8833 current.
    • USD/MXN: Traders beware of Nafta repeal risk, warns CS. A peso at 23.0 per USD in 3 months and 25.0 in a year is the cautious forecast. The peso stood at 20.5011 per USD at last check.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • ETFs: FXE, UUP, EUO, UDN, FXB, CYB, ERO, CNY, GBB, USDU, DRR, ULE, EUFX, FXCH, URR.
    | Fri, Nov. 18, 1:17 PM
  • Tue, Nov. 15, 3:42 PM
    • First, one of the U.K.'s Supreme Court judges - who will be hearing the government's appeal against a Brexit legal challenge next month - told an audience in an overseas speech that the Brexit referendum was not legally binding on Parliament. Guess we know which way she's voting (there are 11 justices on the U.K. Supreme Court).
    • Then there was consultancy firm Deloitte saying there are deep divisions over Brexit within PM Theresa May's cabinet, a statement the company sort of backed away from later in the day.
    • The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) shot higher at one point this afternoon, but has given up those gains, now lower by 0.25% to $1.2451.
    | Tue, Nov. 15, 3:42 PM | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Nov. 8, 11:12 AM
    • The Supreme Court has given permission for Prime Minister Theresa May to appeal last week's High Court ruling that Parliament must approve the triggering of Article 50.
    • The appeal is expected to begin on Dec. 5 and last four days.
    • The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) has been up and it's been down, but is currently unchanged and buying $1.24. The FTSE (NYSEARCA:EWU) is higher by 0.3%.
    | Tue, Nov. 8, 11:12 AM
  • Sat, Nov. 5, 6:33 PM
    • In an op-ed for The Telegraph titled Why I will not allow the British people’s vote for Brexit to be sabotaged, PM Theresa May writes:
    • "On Thursday, the High Court decided that the government could not begin the process of withdrawing from the EU without the permission of MPs and members of the House of Lords. It is a decision the government will challenge in the Supreme Court.
    • "This may appear to be a debate about process, and the legal argument is complex, but in reality there is an important principle at stake. Parliament voted to put the decision about our membership of the EU in the hands of the British people. The people made their choice, and did so decisively. It is the responsibility of the government to get on with the job and to carry out their instruction in full.  MPs and peers who regret the referendum result need to accept what the people decided.
    • "Instead of re-fighting the battles of the past, we should be focusing on how we can come together as a country to make the most of this great national opportunity..."
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | Sat, Nov. 5, 6:33 PM | 22 Comments
  • Thu, Nov. 3, 8:08 AM
    • The U.K. central bank no longer expects to cut interest rates again this year, and hints that it's turned its eye back to inflation. The pound's sharp decline has "adversely affected" the balance of needs of the economy, says the MPC, now seeing CPI rising above its 2% target early next year.
    • The bank also boosted its GDP growth estimate for this year to 2.2% and for next year to 1.4%. 2018 is cut to 1.5%.
    • For now, the MPC left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25% and the QE program at £435B for Gilts and £10B for corporate paper.
    • The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) is adding to gains, how higher by 1.4% to $1.2475. The FTSE 100 remains lower by 0.25%.
    • ETFs: EWU, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    • Previously: Pound surges after court ruling on Article 50 (Nov. 3)
    | Thu, Nov. 3, 8:08 AM | 21 Comments
  • Thu, Nov. 3, 7:44 AM
    • The U.K.'s High Court rules the government cannot trigger Article 50 without first getting approval from Parliament. The government will appeal, but for now the ruling takes away the chance of a "hard Brexit" given Parliament's more cautious attitude versus that of PM Theresa May and her cabinet.
    • Cable (NYSEARCA:FXB) is higher by 1% to $1.2419, and the FTSE 100 is down 0.2%.
    | Thu, Nov. 3, 7:44 AM | 9 Comments
  • Mon, Oct. 31, 2:36 PM
    • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney says he will step down in 2019. This means he will serve one year beyond the five-year term he originally committed to, but stop short of serving the eight years that is customary for BoE bosses.
    • Rumors this weekend suggested Carney - who inserted himself into the middle of a political debate (Brexit) only to come out on the wrong side - might this week announce his resignation from the bank.
    • The pound is higher by 0.3% today to $1.2233. The FTSE 100 closed lower by 0.6%.
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | Mon, Oct. 31, 2:36 PM | 2 Comments
  • Sun, Oct. 30, 9:30 AM
    • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney had previously planned to announce by year-end whether he would stay on past 2018, but word is he could make a statement as soon as this Thursday when he delivers the bank's quarterly inflation report.
    • The Canadian has some egg on his face as he was a vocal member of the "Project Fear" contingent which promised economic apocalypse in the event of a U.K. vote to exit the EU. Since that early-summer vote, the FTSE has soared to new highs, British unemployment has come down, and this past week U.K. Q3 GDP breezed past forecasts.
    • There's also the new government of Theresa May which isn't a fan of the BOE's QE program.
    • Among potential replacements is Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, who hasn't been afraid to publicly criticize Carney. Earlier this month: "On every occasion [Carney] wants to talk down the economy and find doom and gloom, which doesn’t seem to me to be the job of the governor of the Bank of England."
    • The conventional wisdom says the pound could tumble further if the well-respected (at least outside of Britain) Carney announces his exit, but presumably his replacement would be at least somewhat more hawkish.
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | Sun, Oct. 30, 9:30 AM | 50 Comments
  • Wed, Oct. 19, 4:49 AM
    • The U.K.'s unemployment rate held steady at an 11-year low of 4.9%, as expected, in the three months to the end of August.
    • However, while the number of people in work rose 106,000, that's down from increases of above 170,000 in recent months.
    • The number of unemployed increased 10,000 to 1.66M for the first rise since February.
    • Basic pay growth increased to 2.3% from 2.2%, although total pay slowed to +2.3% from +2.4%.
    • While the data will probably be scrutinized for what it says about the impact of the Brexit vote, it's still way to early to tell.
    • The pound is +0.1% at $1.2309, while the FTSE 100 is -0.3%.
    • PR
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | Wed, Oct. 19, 4:49 AM
  • Tue, Oct. 18, 5:04 AM
    • U.K. CPI reached its highest level in almost two years in September, rising to +1% on year from +0.6% in August and topping consensus of 0.9%.
    • Core inflation increased to 1.5%, also the highest in two years, from 1.3% vs an estimate of 1.4%.
    • Factory-gate prices +1.2% vs +0.9% and +1%.
    • Total import costs increased 9%.
    • The U.K.'s Office of National Statistics says it hasn't seen explicit evidence that the pound's weakness has been affecting CPI, although it has had an impact on producer prices.
    • "Even though 1% is still some way off the Bank of England's 2% inflation target, the impact of currency changes works with a lag so further rises in CPI should be expected," says Fidelity investment director Tom Stevenson. "Inflation is expected to continue its upward charge."
    • The FTSE 100 is +1.1%, while the pound is +0.5% at $1.2248.
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | Tue, Oct. 18, 5:04 AM | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Oct. 18, 4:37 AM
    • Consumer-price growth jumped to 1% from 0.6% in August, above the 0.9% forecast by economists and the highest since November 2014.
    • The pound’s 18% decline since the U.K. voted to quit the EU is expected to fuel faster inflation in the coming years.
    • BoE officials have warned that the pound’s decline will push inflation above their 2% target.
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    • See chart of UK inflation
    | Tue, Oct. 18, 4:37 AM | 1 Comment
  • Fri, Oct. 14, 12:52 PM
    • "People are getting nervous about a number of things,” says the head of U.K. rates strategy at UBS. Among them are lower overseas interest as the pound plunges, and questions about the future of the Bank of England's asset purchase program as the government comes out against it.
    • The 10-year U.S. Gilt yield climbed another seven basis points today to 1.10% - now up about 50 basis points in less than a month, and now above its pre-Brexit level.
    • Other government bond markets have had a rough time of it lately as well, but nothing on the scale of the U.K. "The U.K. is massively underperforming,” says an Allianz money-manager. "If the BOE stops doing quantitative easing, and monetary stimulus is replaced by additional fiscal stimulus, then bear steepening of the gilt yield curve is entirely warranted."
    • The FTSE climbed 0.5% today, underperforming broader Europe which gained 1.3%.
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | Fri, Oct. 14, 12:52 PM
  • Tue, Oct. 11, 1:14 PM
    • Cable (NYSEARCA:FXB) is down another 1.75% vs. the greenback today to another multiyear low of $1.2145. It's also lower by more than 1% vs. the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) to easily its weakest post-Brexit level (though during the financial crisis, it was even weaker vs. the euro).
    • British stock prices (NYSEARCA:EWU) haven't been complaining, though the FTSE today did shed 0.4%.
    • Making for a good excuse for today's selling is a report suggesting the U.K faces tax revenue losses of £66B in event of a hard Brexit. One watcher suggests last week's flash crash in the pound may have just been a "toe in the water."
    | Tue, Oct. 11, 1:14 PM | 37 Comments
  • Thu, Oct. 6, 7:18 PM
    • Pound futures, which had been trading above $1.26 U.S., suddenly drop below $1.20, printing as low as $1.1821.
    • Unclear what triggered the flash crash.
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | Thu, Oct. 6, 7:18 PM | 19 Comments
  • Thu, Oct. 6, 12:07 PM
    • Prime Minister Theresa May: "We have to acknowledge there have been some bad side effects [from low rates and QE] ... People with assets have got richer. People without them have suffered. People with mortgages have found their debts cheaper. People with savings have found themselves poorer.”
    • Her government is expected to come out officially against QE in this year's August Statement by new Treasury head Philip Hammond, instead preferring to focus on fiscal measures like tax and spending policies.
    • Source: The Telegraph
    • Monetary policy, of course, is set by the independent Bank of England, but the government does have its levers.
    • U.K. 10-year Gilts are easily the worst-performers among developed country government debt, their yield up six basis points to 0.776%. The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB), meanwhile, continues to decline, off another 0.75% vs. the dollar to $1.2653.
    • The FTSE (NYSEARCA:EWU) was Europe's weakest equity market today, down 0.47%.
    | Thu, Oct. 6, 12:07 PM | 44 Comments
  • Tue, Sep. 27, 3:00 PM
    • Among the issues on the approved list are those from General Electric, United Utilities Group, and Rio Tinto. The 18-month plan aims to buy £10B investment-grade (non-financial company) bonds, and yields are already at record lows before it even gets started.
    • A similar exercise from the ECB has yielded little in the way of boosted economic growth, though it has driven yields to even crazier low levels.
    • "This will almost certainly become another example of a failed attempt by a central bank to generate growth and inflation,” says Nomura's Richard Hodges.
    • “It just means we will all be buying more expensive assets and taking more risk by extending further along the yield curve and down the credit-quality curve.”
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | Tue, Sep. 27, 3:00 PM
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