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  • Today, 8:57 AM
    • "The extension of purchases over a longer horizon allows for a more sustainable market presence," said Mario Draghi at the start of his press conference.
    • Some tweaks were announced to the eligibility criteria for bonds bought under the ECB's asset-purchase program. Bonds with a maturity of one year will now be eligible (previously shortest maturity eligible was two years) and officials will no longer exclude bonds with yields lower than the ECB's deposit rate.
    • The euro has quickly given back gains to trade down 1% at $1.0646 as the threat of wider peripheral spreads weigh on the currency.
    • ETFs: FXE, EUO, ERO, DRR, ULE, EUFX, URR
    • Previously: Bond prices and the dollar hammered on ECB taper (Dec. 08 2016)
    • Previously: ECB leaves rates unchanged, sets taper (Dec. 08 2016)
    | Today, 8:57 AM
  • Today, 7:49 AM
    • The current pace of €80B in asset purchases per month will slow to €60B beginning in April, and will continue as necessary until the end of 2017.
    • Policy statement
    • The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) is strengthening on the news, +0.8% vs. the dollar at $1.0834.
    • European stocks (NYSEARCA:FEZ) are shedding some earlier gains, now up just 0.3%.
    • Mario Draghi's press conference begins at 8:30 ET.
    | Today, 7:49 AM | 12 Comments
  • Today, 5:58 AM
    • Mario Draghi's final policy announcement of the year will come at 7:45 a.m. ET, with a highly watched press conference to follow 45 minutes later.
    • More important than the expected extension of asset purchases at the current monthly pace of €80B for six months may be any signal by the ECB president on the path of stimulus thereafter.
    • Questions are swirling about the ultra-loose monetary policy that underpins the eurozone's economic recovery but is out of sync with Berlin and Washington.
    • Euro +0.4% to $1.0793.
    • ETFs: FXE, EUO, ERO, DRR, ULE, EUFX, URR
    | Today, 5:58 AM | 10 Comments
  • Mon, Dec. 5, 5:18 AM
    • Taking cues from the U.S. election and post-Brexit trading, a "Renzi resignation rally" is underway across the globe after denting equities earlier in the session.
    • With virtually all the ballots counted, 59.6% of Italians voted to block the Prime Minister's constitutional reform plans in a closely-watched referendum.
    • The euro has come off 20-month lows, trading down 0.2% at $1.0639, while the yield on 10-year Italian government bonds rose 11 basis points to 2.02%.
    • Asia: Nikkei -0.8%; Shanghai -0.8%; Hang Seng -0.3%;
    • Europe: Rome +0.8%. London +0.8%. Paris +1.4%. Frankfurt +1.7%.
    • U.S. Futures: Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.6%.
    • Related: What about Italy's financial sector? (Dec. 05 2016)
    • Related: Italy's referendum overshadows EU finance talks (Dec. 05 2016)
    • Related: Political instability following Renzi's defeat? (Dec. 05 2016)
    | Mon, Dec. 5, 5:18 AM | 32 Comments
  • Sun, Dec. 4, 6:34 PM
    • "I have lost. In Italian politics no one ever loses. I lost, and I say that loudly. My government ends here."
    • So says Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi after the constitutional referendum he backed suffered a resounding defeat today.
    • The loss and Renzi's subsequent resignation were mostly expected, but nevertheless stock index futures and the euro are selling off.
    • S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures are lower by 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQby 0.6%.
    • German futures (NYSEARCA:EWG) are faring worse, down 1.1%, and FTSE 100 futures (NYSEARCA:EWU) are off 0.55%.
    • The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) is now lower by 1.3% vs. the greenback at $1.0526.
    • Gold's (NYSEARCA:GLD) catching a bid, up 0.7% to $1,187 per ounce.
    • Previously: Italy's Renzi set to speak; exit polls show sizable loss (Dec. 4)
    | Sun, Dec. 4, 6:34 PM | 84 Comments
  • Sun, Dec. 4, 5:20 PM
    • Stock index futures aren't trading yet, but currencies are, and the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) has quickly tumbled by nearly 100 pips  as exit polls show a constitutional referendum backed by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi losing.
    • Renzi has vowed to resign if he loses. He's reportedly set to speak in about 40 minutes.
    • Unlike the Brexit vote and the U.S. election, an establishment loss in Italy was fairly widely anticipated, and Italian banks have been trending lower for several weeks.
    | Sun, Dec. 4, 5:20 PM | 172 Comments
  • Sun, Dec. 4, 4:00 AM
    • Italians are heading to the polls for a referendum on constitutional reform that could call the shots for global markets in the week ahead.
    • If the measures are rejected, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi would likely resign, further shaking Italy's vulnerable banks, the euro and possibly causing the next Brexit-like tremor for the markets.
    • The political instability would also represent a new setback for the EU, since Renzi's opponents are dominated by anti-establishment forces.
    • The polls opened at 7 a.m. local time and will close at 11 p.m. Exit polls will be released as soon as voting booths close, with a definitive result expected by about 1 a.m. on Monday.
    • ETFs: FXE, EUO, EWI, ERO, DRR, ULE, EUFX, URR, HEWI, DBIT
    • Related bank tickers: OTCPK:UNCFF, OTCPK:IITSF, OTCPK:IITOF, OTC:MDIBF, OTCPK:ISNPY, OTCPK:BPESY, OTC:UNCFY, OTCPK:MDIBY, OTCPK:BPESF
    | Sun, Dec. 4, 4:00 AM | 21 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 23, 10:30 AM
    • We'll get today's weakish data out of the way first - jobless claims unexpectedly jumped last week, and new home sales disappointed in October (and Sept.'s print was revised lower).
    • On the other hand, there was an unexpected big lift in consumer sentiment since the election, durable goods for October, surprised to the upside, and the 10-year Treasury yield has popped to more than a one-year high of 2.39%.
    • The dollar index has surged to its highest level in about a decade, with particular strength against the yen (NYSEARCA:FXY) and euro (NYSEARCA:FXE). UUP +0.7%
    • Gold, on the other hand, continues its big retreat, down 2.15% to $1,185 per ounce - its lowest price since February. GLD -2.15%
    • ETFs: GLD, IAU, UUP, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, UDN, DGP, GTU, UGLD, GLL, DZZ, GLDI, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, USDU, GYEN, GEUR, UBG, QGLDX
    | Wed, Nov. 23, 10:30 AM | 85 Comments
  • Fri, Nov. 18, 1:17 PM
    • The strength in the U.S. dollar may just be getting started after post-election forecasts were too conservative, says Credit Suisse.
    • That's after the ICE U.S. Dollar Index increased to its highest level in more than 13 years today.
    • EUR/USD: Credit Suisse predicts a 1.03 exchange rate in 90 days and 1.00 parity in a year vs. 1.05 prior on both and 1.05872 current.
    • USD/JPY: The investment firm targets a 111 rate in three months and 108 in 12 months vs. 100 and 108 prior, respectively.
    • GBP/USD: Brexit uncertainty is a factor of course, observes CS. The forecast arrives at 1.20 for 3-months and 12-months vs. 1.16 prior and 1.2338 current.
    • USD/CNY: Some depreciation is seen being allowed by the Chinese government. CS lines up an exchange rate of 7.01 for 3-months and 7.33 in a year. vs. 6.8833 current.
    • USD/MXN: Traders beware of Nafta repeal risk, warns CS. A peso at 23.0 per USD in 3 months and 25.0 in a year is the cautious forecast. The peso stood at 20.5011 per USD at last check.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • ETFs: FXE, UUP, EUO, UDN, FXB, CYB, ERO, CNY, GBB, USDU, DRR, ULE, EUFX, FXCH, URR.
    | Fri, Nov. 18, 1:17 PM
  • Fri, Nov. 18, 8:47 AM
    • The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) has managed to climb back to positive territory vs. the greenback in the past couple of hours, but if it closes the session in the red, it would be the 10th consecutive day of losses - thus extending its longest-ever losing steak against the dollar.
    • At its high on election night, the euro was at $1.13, but this morning can buy just $1.0622. The next level technicians are watching is the $1.0538 low hit last December. Beyond that, there's the $1.0456 hit in March 2015.
    • If that breaks, is parity next?
    • ETFs: FXE, EUO, ERO, DRR, ULE, EUFX, URR
    | Fri, Nov. 18, 8:47 AM | 8 Comments
  • Fri, Nov. 11, 5:01 AM
    • Central banks from India to Indonesia have stepped in to stabilize their currencies on deepening concerns that Donald Trump will pursue policies that spur capital outflows from developing economies and weaken their exports.
    • Meanwhile, the dollar is on course for its best week in a year, racking up another round of gains against the yuan and peso and steadying just off the previous day's highs against the euro and yen.
    • ETFs: FXE, UUP, EUO, FXY, YCS, UDN, CYB, ERO, CNY, INR, ICN, JYN, USDU, DRR, ULE, EUFX, FXCH, YCL, URR
    | Fri, Nov. 11, 5:01 AM
  • Thu, Oct. 20, 8:48 AM
    | Thu, Oct. 20, 8:48 AM | 10 Comments
  • Tue, Oct. 11, 1:14 PM
    • Cable (NYSEARCA:FXB) is down another 1.75% vs. the greenback today to another multiyear low of $1.2145. It's also lower by more than 1% vs. the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) to easily its weakest post-Brexit level (though during the financial crisis, it was even weaker vs. the euro).
    • British stock prices (NYSEARCA:EWU) haven't been complaining, though the FTSE today did shed 0.4%.
    • Making for a good excuse for today's selling is a report suggesting the U.K faces tax revenue losses of £66B in event of a hard Brexit. One watcher suggests last week's flash crash in the pound may have just been a "toe in the water."
    | Tue, Oct. 11, 1:14 PM | 37 Comments
  • Wed, Oct. 5, 4:35 AM
    • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she's not worried about the pound's recent fall to a 31-year low against the dollar, although the prospect of a hard Brexit is spooking investors and sent sterling down to $1.2685 overnight.
    • The euro has meanwhile strengthened against the dollar on reports that the ECB is considering tapering its QE program, but the central bank shot down the rumor, which suggested it could wind back its bond buying by around €10B a month.
    • ETFs: FXE, EUO, ERO, EWU, DRR, ULE, EUFX, URR, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
    | Wed, Oct. 5, 4:35 AM | 3 Comments
  • Thu, Sep. 8, 9:32 AM
    • The ECB earlier kept policy on hold, leaving central bank stimulus fans looking to Mario Draghi's post-meeting press conference for assurance the central bank was standing by to cut rates further and/or boost its QE program.
    • While Draghi trotted out his usual line about using "any means necessary," to prop up the economy, he's keeping his powder dry for now. Among things not discussed at the ECB meeting, he says, was helicopter money or buying stocks.
    • He also pushed back against the perception that negative rates are a negative for the banks. Stop using low rates as "justification for everything that goes wrong with banks today," he argues. Low rates help the economy, which ultimately helps bank balance sheets.
    • Flat ahead of the press conference, the Stoxx 50 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) is now lower by 0.9%, while the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) adds to gains, now up 0.75% to $1.1322.
    • U.S. futures were flat to up most of the morning, but turned lower during the press conference. The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) has opened down 0.25%.
    | Thu, Sep. 8, 9:32 AM | 47 Comments
  • Thu, Sep. 8, 8:45 AM
    • The opening statement from Mario Draghi contains his usual material - that the ECB will monitor developments and will provide accommodative policy with all available instruments, as necessary.
    • Economists at the ECB lift their 2016 GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.6%, but cut 2017 to 1.6% from 1.7%. 2018 is seen at 1.6%.
    • The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) remains higher by 0.6% to $1.1303, and European stocks (NYSEARCA:FEZ) marginally lower.
    • Previously: ECB keeps policy on hold; Draghi up in 45 minutes (Sept. 8)
    | Thu, Sep. 8, 8:45 AM | 1 Comment
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