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  • Tue, Nov. 29, 10:04 AM
    • The dollar's been on a tear against all currencies since the election, with dollar/yen rising to ¥112.84 from about ¥103 just a couple of weeks ago. Its low for the year was roughly ¥100 hit a few times during the summer and early fall.
    • Yen traders have Trump all wrong, says UBS, predicting dollar/yen tumbling all the way to ¥98 towards the end of 2017.
    • Expectations for fiscal spending are overblown, says the bank's Toru Ibayashi, and instead protectionist policies will come first.
    • "The market has latched on to only the juicy bits of Trump’s policies, and wrapped them up with unreasonable euphoria, which we think is pretty much a misinterpretation,” he tells Bloomberg. "A market that’s been overbought on hope will quickly fall apart.”
    • UBS isn't a lone contrarian voice. Former Japanese finance chief Eisuke Sakakibara (aka "Mr. Yen") sees the yen strengthening to ¥90 within six months, and JPMorgan forecasts ¥99 by the end of next year.
    • ETFs: FXY, YCS, JYN, YCL
    | Tue, Nov. 29, 10:04 AM | 3 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 23, 10:30 AM
    • We'll get today's weakish data out of the way first - jobless claims unexpectedly jumped last week, and new home sales disappointed in October (and Sept.'s print was revised lower).
    • On the other hand, there was an unexpected big lift in consumer sentiment since the election, durable goods for October, surprised to the upside, and the 10-year Treasury yield has popped to more than a one-year high of 2.39%.
    • The dollar index has surged to its highest level in about a decade, with particular strength against the yen (NYSEARCA:FXY) and euro (NYSEARCA:FXE). UUP +0.7%
    • Gold, on the other hand, continues its big retreat, down 2.15% to $1,185 per ounce - its lowest price since February. GLD -2.15%
    • ETFs: GLD, IAU, UUP, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, UDN, DGP, GTU, UGLD, GLL, DZZ, GLDI, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, USDU, GYEN, GEUR, UBG, QGLDX
    | Wed, Nov. 23, 10:30 AM | 85 Comments
  • Tue, Nov. 22, 2:25 AM
    • Japan has lifted all tsunami alerts after a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck off the coast of Fukushima, home to the nuclear power plant crippled in the March 2011 triple disaster.
    • The overnight quake caused disruptions at a separate nuclear plant, where the cooling system was briefly halted, while the yen rose as much as 0.5% to 110.27 per dollar, heading for its first back-to-back gain in two weeks.
    • ETFs: FXY, YCS, JYN, YCL
    | Tue, Nov. 22, 2:25 AM
  • Mon, Nov. 21, 4:27 PM
    • The yen (NYSEARCA:FXY) has weakened vs. the dollar by about 35 pips since the news hit.
    | Mon, Nov. 21, 4:27 PM | 8 Comments
  • Fri, Nov. 11, 5:01 AM
    • Central banks from India to Indonesia have stepped in to stabilize their currencies on deepening concerns that Donald Trump will pursue policies that spur capital outflows from developing economies and weaken their exports.
    • Meanwhile, the dollar is on course for its best week in a year, racking up another round of gains against the yuan and peso and steadying just off the previous day's highs against the euro and yen.
    • ETFs: FXE, UUP, EUO, FXY, YCS, UDN, CYB, ERO, CNY, INR, ICN, JYN, USDU, DRR, ULE, EUFX, FXCH, YCL, URR
    | Fri, Nov. 11, 5:01 AM
  • Sun, Nov. 6, 7:07 PM
    • "Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton," says the FBI after having a look at newly discovered emails.
    • Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ+1.4%, S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY+1.25%, DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIA+1.15%.
    • Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD-1%
    • The dollar (UUP, UDN+1% vs the yen (NYSEARCA:FXY), +0.5% vs. the Swiss franc (NYSEARCA:FXF).
    • Previously: FBI’s Comey: new emails don't change anything (Nov. 6)
    | Sun, Nov. 6, 7:07 PM | 478 Comments
  • Fri, Oct. 21, 5:16 AM
    • This should come as no surprise to anyone, but Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said that the bank may once again push back its 2% inflation target, which currently sits somewhere in fiscal 2017.
    • Recall that when Kuroda started his job in early 2013 and began his turbo-charged asset-purchase policy that continues to this day, he originally hoped that inflation would hit 2% by late 2014 or 2015.
    • Almost four years later, inflation has disappeared after an initial rise.
    • The yen is -0.2% at 103.69.
    • ETFs: FXY, YCS, JYN, YCL
    | Fri, Oct. 21, 5:16 AM | 1 Comment
  • Thu, Sep. 22, 10:20 AM
    • "We've all relied too much on monetary policy," says Third Point's Dan Loeb, mostly positive on the BOJ's latest bright idea, but noting corporate and fiscal reform is what's really needed to revive growth in Japan. "They used to call it the punch bowl. I say we've got to take the crack cocaine pipe away and start focusing on real fiscal policy and structural reforms."
    • An investor in Japan for years, Loeb says foreign money is being welcomed more now, and that's a good thing. He and Japanese investors both want the same things, he says - Better-run businesses whose benefits will spread "far and wide." However, he cautions against government protection for certain sectors: "Let the market determine where workers' labor is best allocated, let people who allocate capital determine that."
    • Checking the scorecard, post-BOJ, the JGB yield has returned to negative territory and the yen (NYSEARCA:FXY) continues to strengthen, with dollar/yen -0.5% and threatening to dip below ¥100.
    • ETFs: FXY, YCS, JGBS, JGBD, JYN, YCL, JGBL, JGBT, JGBB
    | Thu, Sep. 22, 10:20 AM | 16 Comments
  • Wed, Sep. 21, 7:36 AM
    • The Bank of Japan's latest gambit to try and restore growth and inflation to the country is being dubbed "yield-curve control." The bank will abandon its focus on the monetary base, and instead aim to keep 10-year JGB yields from falling into negative territory (where they've been since March), and overshoot the 2% inflation target.
    • The steeper yield curve, hopes the BOJ, will encourage banks to lend and consumers to borrow.
    • After a generation of failed BOJ policies, some analysts are naturally cynical. "Committing to 'overshoot' 2% inflation rings hollow if you can't get there in the first place," tweets DailyFX's Ilya Spivak.
    • While the Nikkei climbed 1.9% following the news, and the 10-year JGB yield pushed into positive territory for the first time since March, the yen - which initially fell - has moved higher. Dollar/yen is down 0.35% at ¥101.33.
    • ETFs: DXJ, EWJ, FXY, YCS, JGBS, JGBD, DBJP, JYN, JPNL, EZJ, JEQ, EWV, HEWJ, YCL, JPXN, JGBL, JGBT, JGBB, FJP, JPN, HGJP, HFXJ, HJPX, DEWJ, FXJP, GSJY, JPNH
    | Wed, Sep. 21, 7:36 AM | 7 Comments
  • Wed, Sep. 21, 2:12 AM
    • Japan's central bank kept rates unchanged at -0.1% following its latest meeting, but announced it would modify its policy framework, marking the latest attempt to boost prices and goose economic growth.
    • Among the changes, the BOJ said it would introduce yield curve controls, eliminate the maturity range of its bond purchases, abandon its monetary base targets and confirmed that cutting rates further remained an option.
    • Nikkei +1.9% to 16,807.
    • ETFs: DXJ, EWJ, FXY, YCS, DBJP, DFJ, JYN, JOF, JPNL, DXJS, EZJ, JEQ, EWV, HEWJ, YCL, SCJ, JPXN, DXJH, JHDG, QJPN, DXJF, JPMV, FJP, DXJR, DXJT, JPN, DXJC, HGJP, JDG, HFXJ, HJPX, DDJP, DEWJ, FXJP, GSJY, JPNH
    | Wed, Sep. 21, 2:12 AM | 4 Comments
  • Thu, Sep. 15, 4:30 PM
    • The central bank's board is still in favor of easing, but some want to alter the methods, according to the report.
      “The BOJ’s policy has become a ‘cloudy cocktail’—nontransparent and difficult to understand,” says a former BOJ member, now an advisor to PM Shinzo Abe.
    • Complicating things - JGBs have gone off script, with the yield on the 30-year surging to 0.55% after nearly touching zero in July. Some suspect the BOJ is out of bullets after the purchase of nearly $800B of bonds annually since 2014 has yet to cause an uptick in inflation (in fact, prices have been falling this year). Economic growth remains lame and the yen has also move off script by moving strongly higher vs. the dollar. The stock market is lower by 12.7% this year.
    • While some previous supporters of massive bond buying and negative rates are questioning the idea, the faction that wants to stay the course warns anything perceived as even a little  tightening could send the yen soaring.
    • The BOJ meets next week.
    • ETFs: DXJ, EWJ, FXY, YCS, DBJP, JYN, JPNL, EZJ, JEQ, EWV, HEWJ, YCL, JPXN, FJP, JPN, HGJP, HFXJ, HJPX, DEWJ, FXJP, GSJY, JPNH
    | Thu, Sep. 15, 4:30 PM | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Sep. 6, 12:19 PM
    • Alongside a decline in bond yields and pop in gold following this morning's unexpected dive in the ISM services index (to a five-year low), the dollar (UUP, UDN) has fallen and can't get up.
    • This morning's data point adds to misses last week from the ISM manufacturing survey and nonfarm payrolls. The chance of a September rate hike has been totally priced out of short-term rate futures, and the odds of a move anytime in 2016 have been cut to about 50%.
    • The dollar index is lower by 0.9%, with the yen's (NYSEARCA:FXY1.2% advance vs. the greenback leading overseas currencies higher.
    | Tue, Sep. 6, 12:19 PM
  • Mon, Aug. 29, 2:22 AM
    | Mon, Aug. 29, 2:22 AM | 3 Comments
  • Mon, Aug. 15, 1:58 AM
    | Mon, Aug. 15, 1:58 AM | 7 Comments
  • Wed, Aug. 10, 9:39 AM
    • According to a draft of a "comprehensive" review of its policies set for release next month, the Bank of Japan will take note of a number of factors - big declines in oil prices, a 2014 sales tax hike, and a deflationary mindset among the populace - as keeping the economy from hitting the bank's 2% inflation target.
    • In doing so, the BOJ will be defending itself from criticism that its QQE program (quantitative and qualitative easing) has been a failure, and thus signal markets that more of the same is coming.
    • The leak is important as last month's announcement of a review sent the JGB market to its worst sell-off in three years on fears the central bank might back off from its money-printing.
    • The yen (NYSEARCA:FXY) has backed off of earlier gains, but remains stronger on the session, with dollar/yen slipping 0.65% to ¥101.20.
    • ETFs: DXJ, EWJ, FXY, YCS, JGBS, JGBD, DBJP, JYN, JPNL, EZJ, JEQ, EWV, HEWJ, YCL, JPXN, JPP, JGBL, JGBT, JGBB, FJP, JPN, HGJP, HFXJ, HJPX, JPNH, GSJY, DEWJ, FXJP
    | Wed, Aug. 10, 9:39 AM
  • Fri, Aug. 5, 7:46 AM
    • A group representing Japanese automakers (OTCPK:NSANY, TM, HMC, OTCPK:MZDAY, OTCPK:SZKMY, OTCPK:FUJHY, OTCPK:MMTOF) has asked Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his new cabinet to take action on the negative impact of foreign exchange rates.
    • The rise of the yen against key currencies has cut deeply into the profit levels of Japanese automakers and forced cost-cutting measures to be adopted as well as capital expenditure cuts.
    • The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association wasn't specific on what manner of yen intervention it expects.
    • The automobile industry accounts for ~10% of all jobs in Japan.
    • Japan F/X ETFs: FXY, YCS, JYN, YCL.
    | Fri, Aug. 5, 7:46 AM | 3 Comments
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