Guess?: Q1 Hurts Short-Term, Long-Term Bull Cases
Guess?: Intrigued, But Where's The Upside?
Guess? Still Looks Expensive
Guess? 'Beat' Offers Another Short Opportunity
Dec. 9, 2015, 10:42 AM
- Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) is up 7.8% to lead the pack of mall retailer stocks that are rallying with some vigor.
- While the sector is seen benefiting from $2 gas prices at the pump, and some analysts have called valuation at reasonable levels - it could be the tamping down of promotional activity which is providing the optimism. Earlier today, Vera Bradley (VRA +30.4%) disclosed it took a hit on the top-line in order to keep margins intact.
- Notable movers include Gap (GPS +2.7%), Stage Stores (SSI +3.8%), Citi Trends (CTRN +1.9%), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO +2.8%), Buckle (BKE +2.9%), Nordstrom (JWN +1.6%), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF +3.8%), Express (EXPR +2.3%), and Guess (GES +2.9%).
- Previously: Vera Bradley +19% after reducing promotions in FQ3 (Dec. 09 2015)
Nov. 30, 2015, 12:55 PM
- It's not a happy Cyber Monday for most retail chain stock on broad concerns over soft store traffic and weak pricing.
- Notable decliners include Guess (GES -5.5%), Express (EXPR -4.6%), Zumiez (ZUMZ -7%), Foot Locker (FL -1.7%), Finish Line (FINL -2.1%), Urban Outfitters (URBN -4.4%), Francesca's (FRAN -2.9%), DSW (DSW -2.7%), and Men's Wearhouse (MW -3.3%).
- Discounters are down sharply, led by Big Lots (BIG -5.4%), Gordmans Stores (GMAN -6%), and Five Below (FIVE -4.3%).
- Big box retailers Wal-Mart (WMT -1.3%), Costco (COST -1.4%), and Target (TGT -1.4%) are lower with concerns over website capabilities lingering in the background. Best Buy (BBY +1.1%) is a bit of a surprise with a 1.4% gain after reports indicate demand for Apple products is exceptionally strong.
- Specialty retailers such as The Container Store (TCS +1.6%), Party City (PRTY +1.2%), and The Michaels Companies (MIK +1.4%) are also retail outliers as consumers are seen spending a higher percentage of their disposable income close to their homes.
- Previously: Retail stocks on watch after Amazon scoops up more Black Friday sales (Nov. 30 2015)
- Previously: Department stores stocks weak on holiday sales anxiety (Nov. 30 2015)
Nov. 24, 2015, 6:19 PM
- Guess (NYSE:GES) reports retail comparable-store sales fell 6% in Q3.
- Revenue in Europe, Asia, and for the U.S. wholesale business were all down at a double-digit rate in U.S. dollars.
- The consolidated operating margin rate was down 20 bps to 4.0%. The Americas retail segment was a drag with a -0.9% rate, while the licensing segment improved 140 bps to 89.5%.
- The company sees Q4 EPS of $0.53-$0.62 vs. $0.59 consensus EPS for the full year is pegged at $0.93-$1.02 vs. $0.96 consensus.
- GES +3.63% AH to $20.25 after gaining 2.1% in the normal trading session.
- Previously: Guess beats by $0.04, revenue in-line (Nov. 24)
Nov. 24, 2015, 5:39 PM
Nov. 24, 2015, 4:21 PM
- Guess (NYSE:GES): Q3 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.04.
- Revenue of $521M (-11.7% Y/Y) in-line.
- Shares +3.5%.
Nov. 23, 2015, 5:35 PM
Nov. 23, 2015, 12:29 PM
- High-end global retail stocks are on the move as some analysts see the sector as oversold.
- A positive step forward for trade talks between China and the U.S. may also be contributing to the mini-rally.
- Gainers: Ralph Lauren (RL +1.8%), Guess (GES +3.3%), Coach (COH +2%), Michael Kors (KORS +1.8%), Vera Bradley (VRA +1.6%), Kate Spade (KATE +2.6%), PVH Corp (PVH +1.6%).
Nov. 20, 2015, 11:47 AM
- The S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) is up 1.9% with apparel and footwear stocks doing much of the heavy lifting.
- A vibrant rally in sports stocks was sparked by earnings reports and Nike. Iconix Brand (ICON +2.5%), G-III Apparel (GIII +3%), DSW (DSW +3.7%), Finish Line (FINL +3.1%), Caleres (CAL +2.2%), Genesco (GCO +3.5%), and Shoe Carnival (SCVL +1.7%) join the list reported on earlier.
- Luxury names are on the move with Kate Spade (KATE +2%), Fossil (FOSL +2.9%), Coach (COH +1.4%), and Movado (MOV +2.7%) higher.
- The beat-up mall retailer group is also recovering after results from Gap (GPS +6%) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF +19.4%) topped worst-case scenarios. American Eagle Outfitters (AEO +2.3%), Guess (GES +4.6%), and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN +5.4%) are notable gainers.
- Big box retailers are the laggards today. Wal-Mart, Target (TGT +0.6%), and Costco (COST +0.6%) are right at market index averages.
Nov. 13, 2015, 1:09 PM
- Retailers are under pressure after the Census Bureau reported October retail sales rose 0.1% M/M, and core retail sales 0.2%. Consensus was respectively 0.3% and 0.4%.
- Also: J.C. Penney is down 13.6% in spite of posting a Q3 beat and reiterating its full-year same-store growth guidance, and Nordstrom is down 15.4% after missing FQ3 estimates and cutting its FY16 guidance.
- In addition to Target, TJX, Macy's, and Kohl's (previously covered), notable decliners include Ross (ROST -5.7%), Skechers (SKX -3.9%), Michael Kors (KORS -4.8%), Deckers (DECK -4.2%), Gap (GPS -4.1%), Ascena Retail (ASNA -4.6%), American Eagle (AEO -4.5%), Urban Outfitters (URBN -4.8%), Stein Mart (SMRT -5.4%), Citi Trends (CTRN -4.4%), Guess (GES -5.9%), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -5.7%), Chico's FAS (CHS -4.3%), and New York & Company (NWY -6%).
- Retail stocks were also under pressure on Wednesday after Macy's cut its 2015 guidance.
- ETFs: IYK, PEJ, IYC, SCC, UGE, SZK, XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXD, FDIS, RCD, PMR
Nov. 11, 2015, 11:32 AM
- A painful guidance cut from Macy's is creating a wave of selling across mall-related retailers.
- Decliners in the fragile sector include Urban Outfitters (URBN -6.1%), Ascena Retail Group (ASNA -7.1%), Dillard's (DDS -6.5%), Sears Holdings (SHLD -4.3%), TJX Companies (TJX -3.2%), Guess (GES -3.5%), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -4.6%), Francesca's Holdings (FRAN -4.4%), Express (EXPR -3.4%), (DSW -3.8%), American Eagles Outfitters (AEO -2.5%), Aeropostale (ARO -3.9%), Zumiez (ZUMZ -4%), Buckle (BKE -3%), and bebe stores (BEBE -9.5%).
- Previously: Macy's lower after U.S. sales slump and nixing REIT (Nov. 11)
- Previously: Department store sector on watch after Macy's warns (Nov. 11)
- Previously: Should Macy's suppliers be worried? (Nov. 11)
Oct. 13, 2015, 10:24 AM
- Guess (GES +3.4%) trades higher after the company was given modest price target boosts by Wunderlich and Mizuho.
- Wunderlich lifted its PT on the apparel company to $27 from $24, while Mizuho went to a $21 PT from $19.
- Guess has quietly snuck up to a 52-week high after Q2 results came in better than expected and with its +3.8% dividend yield providing some support.
Aug. 26, 2015, 5:35 PM
Aug. 26, 2015, 4:31 PM
- Guess (NYSE:GES): Q2 EPS of $0.21 beats by $0.06.
- Revenue of $546.3M (-10.2% Y/Y) beats by $8.69M.
Aug. 25, 2015, 5:35 PM
Aug. 12, 2015, 10:16 AM
- Luxury retail stocks are off to a poor start again after Fossil (FOSL -2.1%) reported last night and with increased concerns over China.
- Analysts note it's not just sales in China which are at risk of lower F/X conversion rates, but European luxury sales could dip to due to the reliance of heavy buying (high average transaction prices) from Asian tourists.
- Luxury slumpers today include Movado (MOV -2.7%), Coach (COH -4.8%), Kate Spade (KATE -4.1%), Tiffany (TIF -4.3%), Luxottica (LUX -3.6%), Ralph Lauren (RL -2.2%), Michael Kors (KORS -4.1%), and Guess (GES -2.9%).
- Previously: Fossil beats by $0.30, misses on revenue (Aug. 11 2015)
- Previously: Mixed results for Fossil in Q2, shares -4% AH (Aug. 11 2015)
Jul. 15, 2015, 9:32 AM
- Jefferies backs a Hold rating on Guess (NYSE:GES) following an announcement last night from the company on a CEO transition.
- Telsey Advisory Group upgraded the retailer to Market Perform from Underperform.
- Wunderlich Securities raised its price target on Guess to $24 from $22.
- Shares of Guess are up 7.2% in early trading.
- Previously: Marciano stepping down as Guess' CEO; replacement named (Jul. 14 2015)
Guess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes and licenses a lifestyle collections of contemporary apparel and accessories for men, women and children that reflect the American lifestyle and European fashion sensibilities. Its apparel is marketed under numerous trademarks including GUESS, GUESS?,... More
Industry: Apparel Stores
Country: United States
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