The sector has been a big beneficiary of the rates lower-for-longer thesis, the bounce in oil and the related major move higher in high-yield.
All three of those themes have been called into question since Labor Day. SA author BDC Buzz reminds not all BDCs are created equal, and says the higher risk ones will likely be underperformers in a correction ... Think Prospect Capital (PSEC -4%), TICC Capital (TICC -1%) and KCAP Financial (KCAP -2.7%). Fifth Street Finance (FSC -2%), Medley Capital (MCC -2.6%) and Full Circle Capital (FULL -0.4%) also fit the bill, and PennantPark (PNNT -1.5%), Gladstone (GLAD -3.4%), and Apollo Investment (AINV -1.2%) have the highest amount of oil exposure.
Those BDCs with "true" first-lien assets and stable NAV will be the outperformers: New Mountain Finance (NMFC -1.8%), Solar Senior (SUNS -0.1%), Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD -0.7%), Golub Capital (GBDC -0.5%), FS Investment (FSIC -1.7%), Monroe Capital (MRCC -0.1%), TPG (TSLX -0.6%), Main Street (MAIN -0.1%), PennatPark Floating Rate (PFLT -0.1%), Hercules (HTGC -1.4%), Horizon (HRZN -1.8%), and TCP Capital (TCPC -0.7%) are worth a look.
Mortgage REITs: Two Harbors (TWO -3.8%), Invesco (IVR -4.3%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -3.4%), Western Asset (WMC -3.7%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.8%), AG Mortgage (MITT -3.9%)
BDCs: Prospect Capital (PSEC -4%), Apollo Investment (AINV -2.2%), Medley Capital (MCC -4.1%), Gladstone Capital (GLAD -4.4%). A few in this sector are managing gains though: Main Street (MAIN +1%), TICC Capital (TICC +1.9%), Harris & Harris (TINY +1.8%)
The S&P 500 is lower by 3%, oil is nearing a $26 handle, and high-yield is selling off, with HYG -1.4% and JNK -1.3%. Those two ETFs are lower by about 5% YTD and in the area of 15% Y/Y.
Leveraged to all the above data, BDC sector losses are eve worse. Prospect Capital (PSEC -3.6%), Fifth Street (FSC -7.4%), Ares Capital (ARCC -5.3%), FS Investment (FSIC -10.8%), Main Street (MAIN -6.4%), Blackrock Capital (BKCC -5.3%), Apollo Investment (AINV -7%), Triangle Capital (TCAP -7.9%), TICC Capital (TICC -3.1%), Pennant Park Investment (PNNT -6.5%), KCAP Financial (KCAP -7.7%), THL Credit (TCRD -8%), TCP Capital (TCPC -7.4%), Gladstone Capital (GLAD -5.6%), WhiteHorse Finance (WHF -9.3%), Garrison Capital (GARS -6.8%)
A rally in the major averages and in the price of oil is failing to translate into a bounce for the roughed-up BDC sector.
Leading the way lower today is Gladstone Capital (GLAD -16.3%) which is notable (as are others in the sector) for its exposure to energy. Popular names like Prospect Capital (PSEC -1.8%), Fifth Street FInance (FSC -3.1%), Ares Capital (ARES -2.3%), KCAP Financial (KCAP -6%), and Main Street Capital (MAIN -3.1%) also can't catch a bid.
As BDC Buzz points out on Seeking Alpha, the BDC sector hasn't done a whole lot worse than the broader averages this year (though that gap is surely widening today), and a large handful of names are in the green for 2016. Among them (along with how they're doing in today's session) are Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD -1.3%), Golub Capital (GBDC -0.4%), PennantPark Floating Rate (PFLT -1.5%), TCP Capital (TCPC -1.2%), and TPG Specialty Lending (TSLX +2.3%).
Up to one-third of American oil and gas producers could near bankruptcy and restructuring by the middle of next year, according to Wolfe Research, which suggests a rebound in crude to at least $50 per barrel would be necessary for survival.
Oil today is threatening a $29 handle, down 2.9% to $30.58.
A new report from Morgan Stanley says the environment is worse than the major 1986 oil patch bust which last for five years.
Plenty of P-E money is standing on the sidelines, but managers see no need to rush in - instead preferring to wait for bankruptcies and the wiping out of the debt.
“There’s no reason to be anybody’s savior,” says FBR's Chad Mabry. “If you can just get the assets out of bankruptcy, then you don’t have to save anyone.”
Prospect Capital (PSEC -3.8%), Fifth Street Finance (FSC -2.6%), TICC Capital (TICC -4%), PennantPark (PNNT -4.5%), KCAP Financial (KCAP -1.7%), OHA Investment (OHAI -2.4%), Gladstone Capital (GLAD -2.7%)