Why Groupon Can Soar Like Priceline.com
Kevin Kuo • 66 Comments
Kevin Kuo • 66 Comments
Dec. 2, 2014, 9:21 AM
- From Black Friday through Cyber Monday, Groupon's (NASDAQ:GRPN) North American sales were up over 25% Y/Y. The company adds Black Friday and Cyber Monday "were the two biggest days in Groupon's North American history."
- Promos for electronics and retail coupons contributed to the growth. For reference, Groupon's North American billings were up 16.4% Y/Y in Q3.
- Yesterday: BofA/Merrill upgrades Groupon
Dec. 1, 2014, 9:25 AM
- Believing the company's "downward estimate revision cycle could be ending," BofA/Merrill's Paul Bieber has upgraded Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) to Buy, and hiked his target by $1.50 to $9.50.
- Bieber touts Groupon's large customer base (it had 52.7M active customers in Q3), believes e-mail traffic pressures (caused in part by Google's addition of a Promotions tab to Gmail) are diminishing, and argues recent numbers point to stabilizing spending within cohort groups.
- He also thinks Ticket Monster, for whom Groupon is seeking local partners, has seen its value grow in recent quarters.
- Shares now +32% since Groupon's Oct. 30 Q3 report.
Dec. 1, 2014, 9:13 AM
Nov. 25, 2014, 2:00 PM
- Twitter Offers allows advertisers to promote discounts for offline goods and services that can be added to a user's credit or debit card, and automatically redeemed when that card is used in a physical store.
- Since the card-linking process takes place on Twitter's (TWTR -1%) site and apps, Twitter asserts advertisers will be able to precisely measure the ROI yielded by an Offers campaign. The company will be testing the solution with "a handful of brands" during the holiday season.
- The solution leverages Twitter's July acquisition of CardSpring, which developed a platform very similar to Offers. In September, Twitter began testing a "Buy now" button that allows users to make e-commerce purchases without leaving its site/apps.
- Offers represents fresh competition for Groupon's (GRPN +0.7%) local deals services. Facebook already provides an offline deals solution called Offers.
Nov. 19, 2014, 5:28 PM
Nov. 17, 2014, 6:18 PM
- Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) has acquired Swarm Mobile, provider of a platform that (with the help of Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and infrared) tracks/analyzes a retail customer's in-store activity and helps retailers interact with them. Terms are undisclosed.
- Groupon: "The more merchants understand about consumer shopping habits, the more customers benefit through specialized offers, tailored notifications and the opportunity to provide real-time feedback ... Swarm’s team will join our MOS organization in San Francisco and will continue to develop its product portfolio and partner roster, including integrations with a number of leading point-of-sale providers."
- The daily daily leader has long envisioned itself morphing into an end-to-end provider of local commerce services for merchants; results have been mixed to date. Back in June, Groupon bought grocery coupon app developer SnapSaves.
Nov. 11, 2014, 1:01 PM
- Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) has used its 2014 analyst day to guide for 15%+ 2015 revenue growth (above a 13.7% consensus) and 25%+ adjusted EBITDA growth.
- The company also says it's looking to achieve 20%+ revenue growth and 25% adjusted EBITDA growth by 2017.
- Shares +28% since Groupon's Oct. 30 Q3 beat.
- Analyst day slides (.pdf)
Nov. 4, 2014, 3:40 PM
- Heavily-shorted Groupon (GRPN +7%) is now up 33% since posting a Q3 beat and reporting better-than-expected North American billings growth on Thursday afternoon. Volume remains strong - 36.4M shares have changed hands today, more than 2x the 3-month average.
- This morning, Groupon announced it's now selling (via Groupon Goods) private-label wine. The offering is said to be inspired by company mascot Groupon the Cat, and features offerings such as Top Cat Merlot and Jazzy Cat Pinot Noir; Groupon boasts the latter has "notes of vanilla from French and American oak."
Oct. 31, 2014, 1:58 PM
- "Management demonstrated this quarter that it could reaccelerate North America local billings, which should be viewed positively by investors," writes William Blair's Ralph Schack following Groupon's (GRPN +24.7%) Q3 beat. He adds the company's Nov. 11 analyst day could serve as a fresh catalyst.
- Sterne Agee's Arvind Bhatia declares "execution improved and management delivered on all three of its Q4 targets a quarter early." He sees investors who had written off Groupon taking a second look.
- Brean also notes Groupon's improved North American local performance, and declares its mobile metrics "continue to impress." Credit Suisse is more cautious: It's hiking its long-term gross profit and EBITDA forecasts, but also notes active customers fell by 700K Q/Q and expects "continued marketing and investment to drive Marketplaces awareness" to pressure near-term profits.
- 22% of the float was shorted as of Oct. 15, providing plenty of fuel for a squeeze.
- Prior earnings coverage
Oct. 31, 2014, 12:47 PM
Oct. 31, 2014, 9:06 AM
Oct. 30, 2014, 6:55 PM
- Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) discloses it has hired advisers to explore strategic options for its Asian ops, including Korean deals site/marketplace Ticket Monster (acquired last year for $260M).
- "There are certain countries where we’d benefit from a partner," says CEO Eric Lefkofsky. The company insists it's not looking to sell all of Ticket Monster.
- With Ticket Monster providing a boost, Groupon's Rest of World segment saw billings rise 154.8% Y/Y in Q3 to $597M, and revenue rise 25.8% to $108.5M. The segment claims 14.3M active customers.
- Shares have turned positive. They were initially down slightly following Groupon's Q3 beat and light Q4 outlook.
- Results/guidance, details.
Oct. 30, 2014, 4:47 PM
- Groupon's (NASDAQ:GRPN) gross billings rose 38.6% Y/Y in Q3 to $1.86B. Revenue equaled 41% of billings, down from 44% a year ago. North American revenue +16% to $418.5M; EMEA +54.9% to $230.1M; rest of world +25.8% to $108.5M.
- Local revenue (daily deals-driven) -3% to $297M. Goods (e-commerce-driven) +63% to $410.9M. Travel +35% to $49.1M.
- Thanks to the ongoing mix shift towards e-commerce sales relative to deals, gross profit as a % of billings fell to 20.4% from 21.4% in Q2 and 26.8% a year ago. GAAP SG&A spend +11% Y/Y to $325.9M; marketing spend +12% to $59.9M.
- Free cash flow was $25.4M, below net income of $46.1M. Just $8.3M was spent on buybacks.
- Total units +92% Y/Y to 88M. Active customers +24% to 52.7M. Active deals rose by ~60K Q/Q to 300K. Mobile continues to account for over half of all transactions.
- GRPN -0.5% AH. Results/guidance, PR.
Oct. 30, 2014, 4:12 PM
- Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN): Q3 EPS of $0.03 beats by $0.02.
- Revenue of $757.1M (+27% Y/Y) beats by $8.3M.
- Expects Q4 revenue of $875M-$925M and EPS of $0.02-$0.04, below a consensus of $926.3M and $0.07.
- Shares -2% AH.
Oct. 29, 2014, 5:35 PM
- ADNC, ADUS, AEGR, AFFX, AHS, AHT, AIV, ALJ, ATEN, ATRC, AXTI, BCOV, BEAT, BYD, BYI, CCI, CHE, CODE, COLM, CPSI, CPT, CSLT, CTRL, CUBE, DCT, DGI, DGII, EGN, EGO, EHTH, ELGX, ELLI, ELX, EMN, EPAY, ESIO, ESS, EXPE, FLDM, FLR, FLT, FRT, GB, GDOT, GMED, GNMK, GPRO, GRPN, HIL, HME, IMMR, IMPV, INT, ISBC, KEG, LNKD, LRE, LYV, MCHP, MELI, MHK, MOH, MTZ, MXL, MYL, NATI, NEM, NR, NSR, NUVA, OIS, OMCL, ONNN, OPLK, OUTR, PKI, PSA, PXLW, QNST, RAIL, RSG, SAM, SBUX, SEM, SGEN, SGMS, SIMG, SPF, SREV, STAA, STAG, SYNC, TCO, TEP, THRX, TNAV, TPX, TRMB, TSO, TSRA, TSYS, TUES, VCRA, WU, YRCW, ZEN
Oct. 10, 2014, 9:01 AM
- Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) -3% premarket after Evercore Partners downgrades shares to Sell from Equalweight.
- Firm is skeptical GRPN will meet its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2014 (at least $270M).
- Upside in shares may be capped until GRPN sees material inflection in positioning with consumers/merchants.
Groupon, Inc. is a local commerce marketplace that connects merchants to consumers by offering goods and services at a discount. The company operates through three segments: North America, EMEA, which is comprised of Europe, Middle East and Africa, and the remainder of the Company's... More
Industry: Internet Information Providers
Country: United States
Other News & PR