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Mon, Aug. 18, 4:30 PM
- Contrarians looking for a bottom in the long slide in corn could do worse than hearing a bell ringing in the WSJ headline from this weekend: "U.S. Farmers are up to their ears in corn."
- "We're going to drown in corn this year," leads the article, quoting Decatur's Jeff Brown, a 5th-generation farmer.
- More? "We're going to see corn in piles all over the Midwest, and it's going to take forever to eat through it all," says commodity broker Jamey Kohake, who is advising clients to sell rallies and not hold any corn through the winter.
- September corn fell 1.7% today to $3.60 per bushel. Two years ago, corn was selling for more than $8.
- CORN -1.6%
- ETFs: JJG, GRU
Mon, Mar. 31, 3:02 PM
- Corn is ahead about 2% after a USDA survey shows farmers planning to plant just 91.691M acres this year, the lowest in 4 years, and down from 95.365M acres in 2013. Trade estimates had been for about 93M acres.
- One year ago at this time, the nearby corn contract was trading at $7 per bushel - today it's around $5. The USDA pegs March 1 corn inventories of 7.01B bushels, up 30% from a year ago, and about inline with trade forecasts.
- CORN +3.1%
- ETFs: JJG, GRU
Mon, Mar. 10, 12:12 PM
- World corn stocks of 158.47MMT is higher than last month's estimate of 157.3 and trade expectations of 156.27. Domestic ending stocks, however, are now placed at 1.456B bushels vs. 1.481 last month and trade expectations of 1.488.
- Domestic bean ending stocks of 145M bushels is down from 150 last month, but ahead of trade expectations for 141. World stocks of 70.64MMT vs. 73.01 previously and forecasts for 71.46.
- Domestic wheat ending stocks of 558M bushels compares to 558M last month and 570M forecast.
- Markets are reading the news as bearish, with corn off a nickel, beans down $0.25, and wheat off $0.02
- CORN -0.25%, SOYB -0.75%, WEAT -1.2%
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU, WEET
Fri, Jan. 10, 12:25 PM
- Corn (CORN +2.6%) moves sharply higher after the latest USDA projection has corn ending stocks at just 1.631B bushels vs. trade expectations for 1.861B. The agency pegs production at 13.93B bushels - few had expected this number to come in below 14B.
- The wheat (WEAT -4.2%) numbers are more bearish however, with ending stocks of 608M bushels vs. expectations of 557M. Winter wheat seedings, though, are less than expected - 41.892M acres vs. 43.501M.
- Soybean (SOYB +0.1%) ending stocks of 150B bushels are about inline with expectations.
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU
Sep. 30, 2013, 3:49 PM
- Corn (CORN -2.4%) and Soybeans (SOYB -3.2%) tumble - with corn hitting a 3-year low - after the USDA reports estimated corn stocks of 824M bushels, off 17% from a year ago, but far higher than trade estimates for 687M. Bean stocks are estimated at 141M bushels, also off 17% from a year ago, but 13% above estimates. Stocks still remain low, but these are old crop numbers, and forecasters are looking forward to a big crop this fall.
- Wheat (WEAT -2.7%) stocks of 1.85B bushels were slightly below expectations.
- Lower-than-expected feed usage and export demand were behind the big corn number - high prices had pig farmers substituting corn for wheat.
- Relevant grain ETFs: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA, JJG, GRU.
Sep. 12, 2013, 1:07 PM
- December Corn slides nearly 3% after the USDA revises upward its estimate for ending stocks to 1.855B bushels from last month's 1.837B. Trade forecasts were for 1.739B. Production is lifted to 13.843B bushels from 13.763B last month and trade estimates of 13.641B. The average yield is expected at 155.3 bushels/acre vs. 123.4 last year.
- Beans go green, however, as the USDA cuts it estimate for yields across the Midwest. The agency sees production at 3.149B bushels and ending stocks of 150M after cutting export demand by 20M bushels. "Leaves trade nervous," tweets Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. "USDA too conservative on demand."
- Wheat's reverses an early loss to go flat even as the USDA revises higher its forecast of ending stocks to 561M bushels from 551M.
- Deere (DE -1.1%) got knee-jerked for a few cents on the news release, but looks to be in the process of bouncing back.
- CORN -2.7%.
- JJG, GRU, SOYB, WEAT.
Aug. 26, 2013, 8:05 AM
- Soybeans lead big gains in the grains after the Pro Farmer tour suggests a harvest lower than the USDA prediction and DTN forecasts more hot, dry weather in the Midwest for the next 7-10 days.
- November beans +3.9%, December corn +3.6%, December wheat +1.5%.
- "The market's increasingly getting a bit nervous about the soybean crop," says an agricultural economist with ANZ.
- ETFs of interest: CORN, SOYB, WEAT. JJG, GRU.
Aug. 12, 2013, 12:26 PM
- The grain pits party after the USDA lowers its corn production estimate to 13.76B bushels - still a whopper of a number, but off from 13.95B in July. Ending stocks are cut to 1.837B bushels.
- Bean production is cut to 3.255B bushels from 3.42B as acres planted are cut 500K and yield is lowered to 1.9 bushels/acre.
- No change is made to the wheat production estimate, but 25M bushels of extra exports cuts ending stocks by the same amount.
- December corn erases a sizable early loss, now up $0.15 to $4.69/bushel. CORN +1.5%.
- SOYB +3.4%, WEAT +0.3%.
- Grain ETFs: JJG +1.8%, GRU +2.5%.
- Other related: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Jul. 12, 2012, 12:23 PM
Apr. 27, 2012, 4:49 PMCorn prices jump 4.6% after the U.S. reports the sixth-largest export sale ever for the grain, which analysts believe is headed for China. The sale coincides with expectations of a large Chinese purchase, but it renews concerns that Chinese demand could stretch already-tight U.S. inventories, pushing prices above their recent trading range. | Comment!
Jan. 24, 2012, 11:06 AM
Jun. 30, 2011, 9:21 AM
Jun. 9, 2011, 9:59 AMCorn is indicated to open sharply higher as the USDA cuts its stocks/use estimate to 5.2% due to rain-induced planting delays and otherwise lousy weather this Spring. Wheat stocks are cut as well, but just by a hair, while bean inventories are projected to rise a bit. Full report (pdf). | 2 Comments
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