Dec. 11, 2014, 12:36 PM
- A large net importer of oil, Chile (NYSEARCA:ECH) is the largest Latin American beneficiary of plunging crude prices, says Credit Suisse, upgrading the country to Overweight in its 2015 outlook for Latin America. Columbia (GXG, COLX, ICOL), however, will see a strong negative impact on its trade and fiscal accounts, and is downgraded to Market Weight.
- Cut to Underweight is Brazil (NYSEARCA:EWZ) even after the recent correction, thanks to poor GDP and earnings outlook, fiscal tightening, forex risk, and a still-pricey valuation.
- Mexico (NYSEARCA:EWW) remains Market Weight as strong economic fundamentals are balanced out by full valuations.
- The team remains Underweight Peru (NYSEARCA:EPU).
- ETFs: ILF, LBJ, GML, EEML, FLN
Apr. 16, 2014, 5:37 PM
Sep. 23, 2013, 9:57 AM
- Extrapolating the Fed's more dovish stance to emerging markets, JPMorgan upgrades Turkey (TUR) and Peru (EPU) to overweight, where they'll join Mexico (EWM), Thailand (THD, TTF, TF), The Philippines (EPHE), and Taiwan (EWT).
- "Turkey feels like the tapering trade," says the team. "The suffering this summer turns to euphoria as the Fed returns to dovishness and retreats from tapering."
- Taiwan and Mexico rate an overweight because of their exposure to developed world growth, but what about Korea (EWY, FKO, KORU, KORZ)? Typically, the country belongs in this group, but JPMorgan is cautious on high-end tech and thus on Samsung. Taiwan, on the other hand, should benefit from the growth in low-priced smartphones.
- Moved to underweight are Russia (RSX, ERUS, RBL, RSXJ, RUDR) and Colombia (GXG, COLX, ICOL).
- Top 10 individual stock picks include ICICI Bank (IBN), Southern Copper (SCCO), and Cemex (CX).
Jul. 6, 2011, 11:51 AM
Colombia moves its first international paper since becoming an investment grade credit, selling $2B in 10 year notes to yield 130 bps over Treasuries, and about 35 bps more than Brazil and Mexico pay. Rich in oil and minerals, the country is enjoying the fruits of the global resources boom. GXG +24% Y/Y.| Jul. 6, 2011, 11:51 AM | 1 Comment
May 31, 2011, 5:20 PM
May 12, 2011, 4:54 PM
"In good times, everybody looks very handsome" says Nicolas Eyzaguirre of the IMF (formerly Chilean Fin Min), issuing a stern warning to Latin American countries to prepare for an inevitable economic shock. "We are much more prone to overspend in good times than other parts of the world."| May 12, 2011, 4:54 PM | 3 Comments
Apr. 29, 2011, 3:51 PMColombia raises interest rates 25 basis points to 3.75% to battle percolating inflation in the Andes, and announces it may increase FX intervention to keep the peso's rise (11% Y/Y vs. the dollar) in check. The Colombian shares ETF, GXG +30.2% over the last year. | Apr. 29, 2011, 3:51 PM | 1 Comment
Apr. 6, 2011, 2:23 PMColombia agrees to rework labor laws and crack down on violence against union organizers in a deal with the Obama administration, clearing the way for a free-trade agreement to be considered by Congress. The deal would give the U.S. access to Colombian markets without current custom duties and could increase exports by more than $1B/year. | Apr. 6, 2011, 2:23 PM | 8 Comments
Feb. 10, 2011, 10:02 AMThe Colombian government's welcoming policy on oil and mining exploration is drawing the interest of Carlos Slim. "They don't want to have Treasuries ... the dollar is weak and there’s no interest," says Slim, explaining why Colombian politicians would rather invest reserves in commodities. GXG -1.0%. AND -0.8%. | Feb. 10, 2011, 10:02 AM | 4 Comments
Oct. 3, 2010, 5:30 PM
Colombia's stock market has returned 34.5%/year over the past eight years, yet fund managers are just now acknowledging the infamous country as an attractive investment opportunity. With GDP growth of ~5.5%, a debt burden of just 24% of its national product, and business friendly policies, the GlobalX Colombia ETF (GXG) is a promising medium-term trading opportunity that could turn into a long-term hold.| Oct. 3, 2010, 5:30 PM | 1 Comment
Aug. 30, 2010, 8:02 AMYTD Country ETF Performance shows emerging markets have greatly outperformed their developed market peers. Top performers include Colombia (GXG) +42.0%, Thailand (THD) +28.7%, and Indonesia (IDX) +25.0%. The worst performers are Spain (EWP) -22.6%, Italy (EWI) -22.4%, and France (EWQ) -17.9%. | Aug. 30, 2010, 8:02 AM | 1 Comment
Aug. 24, 2010, 5:30 PM
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