Harley-Davidson: About To Run Out Of Gas
James Stefurak, CFA • 23 Comments
James Stefurak, CFA • 23 Comments
Tue, Nov. 22, 2:32 PM
- Morgan Stanley is still bullish on Harley-Davidson (HOG +1.8%) after taking in the company's Q3 results.
- A crucial part of the HOG thesis of analysts Adam Jonas is the ability of Harley to buy back shares and pay a healthy dividend.
- "We continue to view HOG as a slow growth or ex-growth annuity stream that could spin off enough cash to take the shares off the market over time," write Jonas.
- He also points out that the rebound in the energy and construction sectors line up nicely with Harley's business model.
- MS lifts its price target on the motorcycle seller to $61 from $54. Shares are rated Overweight.
Sat, Nov. 5, 5:10 PM
- Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, says investors too often focus on "yield alone." Instead, he says they should look for companies with proven track records of steady payout growth.
- In a recent screen he developed, he looked for companies that had no dividend cuts in each of the past five completed fiscal years, and filetered for stocks with yields higher than that of the S&P 500 (~2.2%); payout ratios below the market's 50.4% level; FCF yields that exceed their dividend yields; and one-year dividend-per-share growth better than the S&P 500's median of 7.7%.
- Names it turned up include Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW), KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), Motorola Solutions (NYSE:MSI), and Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN).
- Source: Barron's
Tue, Oct. 18, 5:35 PM
- Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) surged 9% in today's trade for its biggest gain since July 1, as its new engine helped Q3 sales despite a weak U.S. market, and the company trims nearly 300 jobs as part of a cost-cutting plan.
- Implied Q4 retail sales are much stronger than recent quarters, and management commentary about the reception of HOG’s new Milwaukee-Eight engine was "very positive, which bodes incrementally well" for Q4 and FY 2017 results, says Bernstein analyst David Beckel, who rates shares at Outperform.
- With the initial impact on demand from the new engine, HOG is "confident that the entire lineup will drive our retail sales for the remainder of 2016 and position us well heading into the spring riding season and beyond," CEO Matt Levatich said in today's earnings conference call.
Tue, Oct. 18, 12:01 PM
Tue, Oct. 18, 9:23 AM
- Cost-cutting is the talk from Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) as it responds to lukewarm demand. The company anticipates spending between $20M to $25M in severance and reorganization costs next quarter.
- Margin rates fell in Q3. Gross margin was down 100 bps to 33.6% and operating margin was off 250 bps to 10.0%.
- Harley expects to ship between 44.2K and 49.2K motorcycles in Q4 and 264K to 268K for the full year. Shipments were down 9.1% Y/Y in Q3.
- Previously: Harley-Davidson EPS and revenue in-line (Oct. 18)
- HOG +0.10% to $49.75 in a bouncy premarket session.
Tue, Oct. 18, 6:56 AM
Mon, Oct. 17, 5:30 PM
Thu, Oct. 13, 2:47 PM
- Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) has fought all the way back from an early 3% drop tied to a M Science warning on quarterly trends.
- In a separate development from the M Science note, Harley CEO Matthew Levatich says he is optimistic about expanding the firm's business in both existing and new Asian markets.
- Harley is now up 1.04%.
Wed, Sep. 21, 12:09 PM
Wed, Sep. 21, 12:00 PM
Fri, Sep. 9, 7:54 AM
Thu, Sep. 8, 8:59 AM
- BMO Capital reiterates an Outperform rating on Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) after hearing that dealers are giving the new Milwaukee-Eight engine a positive assessment.
- The Milwaukee-Eight is only the ninth engine in Harley's history.
- Early reviews from websites such as Motorcycle.com and Jalopnik have been very favorable.
- BMO has a price target of $66 on HOG vs. yesterday's close of $52.71.
Fri, Sep. 2, 7:49 AM
- Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) plans to cut about 200 positions as the company adjusts its production schedule to a lower forecast for motorcycle shipments in 2016.
- In July, the manufacturer reduced its shipment guidance to a range of 264K-269K motorcycles, from 269K-274K bikes.
- Most of the layoffs are scheduled for the fourth quarter.
Mon, Aug. 29, 8:50 AM| Mon, Aug. 29, 8:50 AM | 1 Comment
Thu, Aug. 18, 11:45 AM
- Harley-Davidson (HOG -1.2%) announces it struck a settlement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regarding the sale of one aftermarket tuning product used to calibrate motorcycles intended for off-road and closed-course competition.
- The company says it agreed stop selling a competition-only tuner in the U.S. The company will continue to sell a performance tuner designed to ensure Harley-Davidson motorcycles retain 50-state and EPA on-road emissions compliance.
- "This settlement is not an admission of liability but instead represents a good faith compromise with the EPA on areas of law we interpret differently, particularly EPA's assertion that it is illegal for anyone to modify a certified vehicle even if it will be used solely for off-road/closed-course competition," says Harley exec Ed Moreland.
- Source: Press Release
Mon, Aug. 1, 8:46 AM
- BMO Capital upgrades Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) to Outperform from Market Perform.
- The investment firm sees Harley as a nice contrarian play with too much attention paid to the short-term drop in shipments guidance from the company. Harley management is still positive on its long-term track towards improved profit, notes BMO.
- HOG +1.15% premarket to $53.53.