Mon, May 9, 3:19 PM
- Crude oil prices erased all of Friday's gains and more, as June futures ended the pit session 2.7% lower to $43.55/barrel even as the massive wildfires in the heart of Canada's oil sands continue to spread, albeit more slowly.
- But positioning in the oil market is very stretched, and analysts say speculators already hold the largest number of wagers for a rise in WTI futures since last summer and near-record high bullish bets on Brent, so the scope for further gains was limited without more clarity on the extent of damage to oil facilities or supply outages.
- The sacking of Ali al-Naimi as head of Saudi Arabia’s oil ministry also may be a reason why oil prices failed to maintain early gains, as successor Khalid al-Falih, the former head of Aramco, is expected to follow the strategy of protecting the country’s market share.
- Yesterday, Cnooc’s Nexen (NYSE:CEO) operations to the south of Fort McMurray reportedly suffered minor damage, while Suncor (NYSE:SU) says its facilities have not been damaged and is beginning to implement a plan for a return to operations.
- Other relevant tickers: RDS.A, RDS.B, XOM, IMO, COP, OTCPK:HUSKF, OTCPK:ATHOF, CNQ, CVE, OTCPK:MEGEF, ENB, OTCPK:IPPLF, OTC:KEYUF, TRP, PSX, STO
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, OLO, UHN, SZO, OLEM
- Now read Fort McMurray situation getting better - oil markets daily
Tue, Apr. 5, 3:28 PM
- Imperial Oil (IMO -1.7%) is initiated with an Underweight rating and $36 price target at Morgan Stanley, which says IMO's superior returns and competitive advantages are reflected in its premium valuation.
- The firm says IMO is trading at a 5x-plus premium above its peers, while shares historically have traded at 1.5x due to competitive advantages and high levels of technological expertise.
- As IMO looks to enter a period of reduced capex, Stanley believes there is a near- to mid-term cash flow uncertainty, so it expects a slower dividend growth rate than the 6% now priced into the stock.
- Now read Canada's biggest oil producers sitting on near-record cash pile
Oct. 12, 2015, 3:45 PM
- Barclays maintains a Neutral rating on the group of 10 Americas-based oil majors, expecting the group to miss consensus expectations in the light of lower crude oil and gas prices, while it reduces the ratings and price targets of several of the companies.
- Although the refining companies have benefited from a modest widening of the key North American crude differentials and stronger product cracks, the firm says higher operating costs and lower than expected margin capture rate at several refiners due to unplanned outages have partially offset these benefits.
- Barclays downgrades Petrobras (PBR -3.7%) to Equal Weight from Overweight, as the company’s unsustainable levels of debt, cash flow outlook and concerns surrounding the corruption investigation cannot be ignored even as shares appear attractively valued; Imperial Oil (IMO -2.1%) also is cut to Equal Weight from Overweight.
- The firm maintains Suncor Energy (SU -0.5%) and Husky Energy (OTCPK:HUSKF -1.9%) at Overweight, saying the two stocks offer the best value over the next 12 months on a risk-adjusted basis, while maintaining Chevron (CVX -0.9%), Hess (HES -2.8%) and Murphy Oil (MUR -3.2%) with Equal weight ratings; it cuts price targets slightly for all five companies.
- Earlier: Exxon upgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays
Sep. 23, 2015, 2:57 PM
- Imperial Oil (IMO -2.6%) has been able to lower the amount of capital reinvestment needed to sustain the business to ~C$1.2/year from C$2B a year ago, helped by shrinking supplier costs, CEO Rich Kruger says at the company’s annual investor day.
- Kruger sees IMO's overall annual spending on expansion and maintenance to average ~C$2.5B ($1.9B) in the coming years as it cuts costs and slows expansion.
- Canadian oil sands producers have cut budgets this year; IMO operates bitumen mining at its Kearl site, where it is aiming to reduce cash operating costs of less than C$30/bbl, in addition to its Cold Lake and Nabiye facilities as well as owning a stake in Syncrude.
Aug. 13, 2015, 12:45 PM
- A key pipeline for delivering Canadian oil to the U.S. remains shut for a third day, leaving heavy crude stranded in Alberta and keeping its price in the cash market at ~$20 below the WTI benchmark.
- A small leak near Shelbina, Mo., coming from Enbridge’s (ENB -1.1%) Spearhead pipeline, which runs from Flanagan, Ill., to the Cushing, Okla., crude hub forced the shutdown Tuesday of the 193.3K bbl/day pipeline as well as a closing of the parallel Flanagan South pipeline, an even larger 585K bbl/day line that runs from Pontiac, Ill., to Cushing.
- ENB expects operations at Flanagan South to resume today, but does not know when Spearhead may return to service, as it continues to investigate the cause of the spill in Missouri.
- Operational problems at BP's (BP -1.5%) Whiting, Ind., refinery also keep the pressure on prices for Canada’s heavy crude as barrels continue to get backed up.
- Other related tickers: SU, IMO, TRP, CNQ, CVE, TCK, CEO, OTCPK:HUSKF, OTCQX:COSWF
- Earlier: Canadian oil sands price nears $20/bbl, cut in half since July 1
May 11, 2015, 2:56 PM
- Exxon Mobil (XOM -1.6%) and Imperial Oil (IMO -0.8%) say they have started bitumen production at the $2B Cold Lake Nabiye project expansion in Alberta.
- XOM says the expansion adds ~20K bbl/day to what is already the largest oil sands operation in Canada, which could double to 40K barrels soon, bringing the total capacity to nearly 200K bbl/day.
- Cold Lake is the largest and longest-running in-situ oil sands operation in Canada, and includes five steam generation and bitumen production plants; the operation produced an average 150K bbl/day of bitumen in recent years.
May 6, 2015, 2:36 PM
- Canadian energy stocks are broadly lower after the shocking election result in Alberta raised questions about the future of the country's oil industry: SU -3.3%, ENB -2.8%, TRP -2.6%, IMO -2.3%, CNQ -2.3%, CVE -5.8%, OTCQB:HUSKF -1%, TCK -1.6%, TAC -4.1%, OTCQX:COSWF -6%.
- "Energy is such a critical issue to Alberta, I’m really not that concerned," ENB CEO Al Monaco says, but investors and analysts disagree.
- "It’s completely devastating" for energy companies and investors, saysCanoe Financial's Rafi Tahmazian of stated plans by the newly elected government to raise corporate taxes, review the government’s take of energy revenue, scale back advocacy for pipelines and phase out coal power more quickly.
- “If you are invested in energy stocks, you should be concerned,” says AltaCorp’s Jeremy McCrea, noting that drillers already face higher costs to extract oil and gas in Alberta than in many jurisdictions, so an increase in royalties would make the province even less competitive.
Apr. 14, 2015, 12:58 PM
- Canadian Oil Sands (OTCQX:COSWF +5.5%), the company with the largest stake in oil sands miner Syncrude Canada, is a prime takeover target and its most likely suitor is Imperial Oil (IMO +1.9%), the company with the second-largest stake, says FirstEnergy Capital analyst Michael Dunn.
- The analyst says his report is partly based on recent investor meetings with senior IMO execs who believe now is a good time to consider making acquisitions.
- Dunn thinks IMO would not want to pay more than a price in the low teens for COSWF, so its stock would have to fall further to make a bid attractive, and he suggests the company would not want to take on excessive debt - which could mean an equity-based offer, help from its controlling shareholder, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), or enrolling a current Syncrude partner such as Suncor (NYSE:SU).
Feb. 2, 2015, 9:59 AM
- Imperial Oil (IMO +4.2%) says it is pushing ahead with multibillion-dollar expansion plans, despite the collapse in crude oil prices.
- The Canadian producer majority owned by Exxon Mobil says it plans to double output from its C$20B Kearl oil sands project in Alberta and increase production from the C$2B Nabiye facility this year; IMO, which also operates three refineries, said last week it may sell 500 of its Esso gasoline stations in Canada.
- The Kearl expansion is ahead of schedule, with startup scheduled for Q3, earlier than the year-end target previously stated; Kearl's Q4 2014 production averaged 66K bbl/day, with plans to eventually produce 220K bbl/day.
- IMO reported Q4 earnings fell to C$0.79/share from C$1.24 a year earlier but it was enough to beat the C$0.72 analysts were expecting, while revenues of C$8B were down from C$8.36B a year ago; production slipped to 315K boe/day from 329K boe/day a year earlier.
Apr. 25, 2014, 10:14 AM
- Canadian Oil Sands (COSWF -4.4%) announces an unplanned maintenance-related outage at Syncrude Coker 8-1, prompting it to lower its estimate for 2014 Syncrude production to 95M-105M barrels.
- National Bank downgrades shares to Underperform from Sector Perform, saying the outage could mean Q2 production will get hit especially hard since the timing could overlap with planned maintenance of another upgrader.
- Other owners of Syncrude include Imperial Oil (IMO), Suncor (SU), Murphy Oil (MUR), Sinopec (SNP) and Cnooc (CEO).
Feb. 3, 2014, 10:10 AM
- Imperial Oil (IMO +2.2%) opens higher after a weekend Barron's report touts the company as a "hidden gem," overlooked by investors because it is 70% owned by Exxon Mobil (XOM) but with potential stock price appreciation on strong production growth.
- IMO represents 6%-7% of XOM's production, but should account for two-thirds of its production growth over the next five years, the report says, yet the stock, which once traded at a premium to XOM shares, now trades at a slight discount.
- IMO does the opposite of what others do to boost their stocks, Barron's writes: It doesn't have earnings conference calls, doesn't make many investor presentations, doesn't pay a dividend it can't afford, and exploits investment opportunities with double-digit returns.
Aug. 16, 2013, 10:33 AM
- Warren Buffett’s new 17.7M-share stake in Suncor (SU +1.7%) could spark investor interest in the battered stocks of Canadian oil sands companies, analysts say.
- Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Cenovus Energy (CVE) and Imperial Oil (IMO) - with "scale and access to market and cost discipline" - may get a second look from investors as Wall Street reviews oil and gas plays beyond prolific shale plays in their own backyard.
- SU produced a record 390K bbl/day in July, and its "new normal" would see output shoot up to 420K, First Energy Capital says.
- SU is trading at some of the lowest cash flow multiples and, at 80 years, has one of the longest reserve lives in its peer group.
Jun. 13, 2013, 3:56 PM
Imperial Oil (IMO +2.5%) says output from its recently opened Kearl oil sands project is set to grow to its full 110K bbl/day capacity over the summer as it completes work on the project. IMO also says a final decision on the future of its 82K bbl/day Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, refinery could come by month's end. IMO, ~70% owned by Exxon (XOM +1.8%), put the refinery up for sale more than a year ago.| Jun. 13, 2013, 3:56 PM
May 17, 2012, 10:48 AM
Imperial Oil (IMO -2.8%) is looking to sell its Dartmouth Refinery in Nova Scotia or find "other alternatives,” according to CEO Bruce March. Several refineries in eastern North America facing closure on waning demand and mounting competition from newer refineries have enjoyed a reprieve as new owners find strategic fits for the mostly older plants.| May 17, 2012, 10:48 AM | 1 Comment
Nov. 28, 2011, 2:51 PM
Sep. 27, 2011, 10:10 AM