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Wed, Oct. 29, 5:53 PM
Thu, Oct. 2, 2:59 PM
- Fertilizer producers are mostly lower after Agrium (AGU -1.9%) announced weak guidance for H2 of its FY 2014: POT -2%, MOS -0.9%, OTCPK:YARIY -2.8%, IPI -2.3%, RNF -1.2%, but CF +2.4%.
- Canaccord and Piper Jaffray downwardly revised their 12-month price targets for the stock, by a respective 1.9% to $102 while reiterating a Buy rating and by 4.2% to $92 while maintaining a Neutral rating; however, BMO and RBC each reiterated their Outperform ratings on the stock with respective target prices of $99 and $115.
- Jim Cramer thinks AGU's woes could reverberate throughout the ag sector, at least in the near-term, with selling possibly spread to the likes of Monsanto (MON -0.4%), Syngenta (SYT +0.1%), Deere (DE +0.1%) and Agco (AGCO +1%).
Tue, Sep. 9, 9:16 AM
- Cowen analysts maintain their bearish stance on the agriculture industry and fertilizer stocks, expecting the large crop and significantly lower grain prices to pressure fertilizer prices.
- The firm lowers estimates on all ag names to reflect a reduced fertilizer forecast and downgrades Potash (NYSE:POT) to Underperform from Market Perform as well as Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) to Sector Perform from Outperform; POT -1% premarket.
- Also: CF, AGU, IPI, RNF.
Wed, Jul. 30, 6:02 PM
Tue, Jun. 24, 5:44 PM
- Joining the S&P 500: Affiliated Managers (AMG)
- Leaving the 500: Forest Labs (FRX)
- Joining the S&P MidCap 400: Forest Labs, LaSalle Hotel (LHO), Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM - about to be spun off from Rayonier), TimkenSteel (TMST - about to be spun off from Timken), Belden (BDC).
- Leaving the 400: Affiliated Managers, Intrepid Potash (IPI), Fidelity National (FNF), Greenhill (GHL).
- Joining the S&P SmallCap 600: Intrepid Potash, Greenhill, Synergy Resources (SYRG), Veritiv (VRTV - about to be spun off from International Paper), Sagent Pharma (SGNT).
- Leaving the 600: La Salle Hotel, Belden, JAKKS Pacific (JAKK), Spartan Motors (SPAR), Higher One (ONE).
- AMG +3.3% AH. LHO +1.8%. SGNT +3.3%. SYRG +3%. FNF -1.3%.
Wed, Apr. 30, 5:25 PM
Tue, Apr. 29, 5:35 PM
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Wed, Mar. 5, 3:59 PM
- Potash Corp. (POT +3.9%) and other fertilizer makers rally as FT reports the two largest shareholders in Uralkali have endorsed the logic of restarting a partnership with the Belarus potash export cartel, opening the door to a deal that would end the potash war that has roiled the industry.
- No formal negotiations have occurred between the two companies about restarting their partnership, but the subject is said to have been mentioned informally.
- AGU +1.5%, MOS +1.8%, IPI +4.3%.
Mon, Mar. 3, 2:35 PM
- Potash producers are bucking the broader stock market weakness, as they stand to benefit if the Ukrainian crisis leads to economic sanctions against Russia.
- Potash is one of Russia’s important export products, Newedge's Robbert van Batenburg notes: “The erstwhile cartel between Russia and Belarus supplied 43% of total global potash demand... Non-Russian potash supplier[s] may benefit from a potential trade sanctions that could impact Russian potash exports.”
- POT +0.6%, AGU +1%, MOS +0.2%, IPI +0.5%, CF +1.7%.
Wed, Feb. 12, 5:29 PM| Comment!
Wed, Feb. 12, 12:10 AM
Tue, Feb. 11, 5:35 PM
Thu, Jan. 30, 8:22 AM
- Potash (POT) -4.3% premarket after posting a 45% drop in Q4 earnings and issuing weaker than expected earnings guidance for 2014 on expectations for continued pricing pressure.
- Gross margins fell as lower prices for all three fertilizer nutrients - potash, nitrogen and phosphate - outweighed improved costs and higher sales volumes.
- In its downside guidance, POT sees Q1 EPS of $0.30-$0.35 vs. $0.46 analyst consensus, and sees FY 2014 EPS of $1.40-$1.80 vs. $2.01 consensus.
- Q4 potash sales volumes rose 13%, largely fueled by North American activity, but average potash prices fell to $282/metric ton in the quarter from $387 a year earlier; while POT near-term pressure on potash prices appears to have subsided, "its impact is expected to suppress our offshore realizations through the early part of 2014."
- Among peers: MOS -1.2%, IPI -2.1% premarket.
Wed, Jan. 22, 3:25 PM
- In suggesting investors shouldn't mistake a potash price floor for a long-term recovery, Goldman’s Adam Samuelson raises his price target for Potash (POT -1.2%) while downgrading peer Mosaic (MOS -1.3%) to Sell and maintaining a Sell rating for Intrepid Potash (IPI -1.2%).
- The firm keeps POT at Neutral thanks to greater valuation support at POT given its 4.1% dividend yield, which it sees as sustainable given its pricing/cash flow forecasts; a more favorable cost outlook following recent headcount reductions, which should help the company improve utilization at lower-cost facilities; and earnings ballast from a less negative near-term outlook.
- The firm's new $32 price target for POT, up from $24, still implies 5% downside, and its core industry view is that both companies will be significantly impacted.
Tue, Jan. 21, 10:20 AM
- Uralkali (URALL) yesterday reached a potash sales deal with China for $305/metric ton, indicating a possible end to the uncertainty in the potash market after prices fell more than 25% from $400/ton last summer when the Russian producer left a trading partnership with Belarus and broke an informal global pricing cartel.
- While J.P. Morgan seems to see a return to price rationality, others aren't so sure; Morgan Stanley is looking ahead to H2, when demand is weak and there's incentive to price undercut again, while Cowen thinks the new contract is likely to keep pricing down for some time to come and, combined with Agrium's (AGU -0.1%) downward guidance, may weigh on fertilizer shares.
- Wunderlich notes Intrepid Potash (IPI -0.6%) sells granulated potash, which is priced at a 10%-15% premium to standard; at $335/ton potash, the firm figures IPI could see a ~$165M swing in free cash flow in 2014 from a negative $115M last year to a positive $50M-$55M in 2014.
- Also: POT -1.3%, MOS -0.5%.
Wed, Jan. 15, 3:15 PM
- Uralkali (URALL +9.7%) shares jump the most in four months on speculation that it may raise its prices for Brazil and China.
- Uralkali is signaling that Brazilian buyers will have to pay $350-$360/ton on a cost-and-freight basis for granular potash for March volumes compared to the current $320/ton, J.P. Morgan analysts say.
- Rumors also indicate Uralkali will sign its contract with China for the first half of the season soon at a possible price of $300/ton, which could set a price floor, according to Renaissance Capital.
- Following up sharp gains yesterday, POT +3.4%, MOS +3.2%, AGU +1.4%, ISCHY +2.7%, SQM +6.8%, KPLUY +3.3%, IPI +3% today.
IPI vs. ETF Alternatives
Intrepid Potash, Inc., and its subsidiaries produce muriate of potash, langbeinite and by-products including salt, magnesium chloride and metal recovery salts. The Company owns five active potash production facilities three in New Mexico and two in Utah.
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