Sun, Jul. 3, 2:30 PM
- via Morgan Stanley:
- "The bottom line is that Brexit is ultimately a political crisis and one that is not likely to be resolved in a hurry. There will be many twists and turns in the path to ultimate resolution.
- "There may yet be circumstances that give rise to bigger systemically risky events. For now, we don't think we are quite there and we feel that the current architecture of the global financial system is more resilient than it used to be when the last big storm hit us.
- "That said, caution is clearly warranted. The global economy was not in great shape pre-Brexit and is now worse. There is likely to be more downside to come, particularly in European equities and in GBP.
- "We see US assets across the spectrum - stocks, FX, credit and government bonds - as relative safe havens, and parts of securitized products, particularly US resi credit and broad exposure to US housing, as being relatively insulated."
- ETFs: FXE, XHB, ITB, EUO, REZ, ERO, EUFN, DRR, CEE, TRF, PKB, ULE, GUR, EUFX, ESR, URR, IFEU, HOML, HBU, HBZ, NAIL, HOMX, CLAW, DBSE, FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
Thu, Jun. 23, 10:27 AM
- May new home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 551K. This was down 6% from April's rate of 586K. April had originally been reported at the blowout level of 619K.
- On a year-over-year basis, May's pace was up 8.7%.
- Sales in the northeast of 34K fell from 51K in April; midwest of 70K vs. 62K; south 323K vs. 326K; west 124K vs. 147K.
- Full report
- The gain in the homebuilders (ITB +0.6%) today is roughly inline with the S&P 500.
Tue, Jun. 21, 7:14 AM
- iShares S&P Small-Cap Value ETF (NYSEARCA:IJS) - $0.380.
- iShares Mortgage REIT Capped ETF (NYSEARCA:REM) - $0.274.
- iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (NYSEARCA:IDU) - $0.900.
- iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSEARCA:ITB) - $0.029.
- iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) - $0.998.
- Payable June 27; for shareholders of record June 23; ex-div June 21.
Fri, Jun. 17, 10:30 AM
- May housing starts at a seasonally-adjusted annualized pace of 1.164M edged lower from April, but were up 9.5% from a year ago (and vs. expected 1.15M). Single-family starts of 764K were slightly higher than April.
- The major averages are modestly lower on the session, but the homebuilders (ITB +1%) are posting strong gains, led by Toll Brothers (TOL +1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.8%), Lennar (LEN +1.2%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.4%), Beazer (BZH +4.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.2%).
Thu, Jun. 9, 12:07 PM
- The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB -1.7%) today is performing sharply worse than the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB -0.5%). Why? The XHB is more a retailer ETF, with a 40% weighting to companies in the business of furnishing homes rather than those building them.
- Today's meltdown in Restoration Hardware (off 21%) is dragging along names like Williams-Sonoma and Bed Bath& Beyond - all members of the XHB, but not of ITB, which is nearly totally comprised of companies building homes and their suppliers.
- On a YTD basis, ITB is up 3.8%, about 300 basis points better than XHB. On a year-over-year basis, ITB's 7.1% advance is about 1000 basis points ahead of XHB.
Tue, Jun. 7, 2:31 PM
- The major averages are up modestly, but the homebuilders (ITB +2.2%) are posting sharp gains, helped by a report Elliot Management has taken a stake in PulteGroup. Pulte is leading the way with a 4.6% advance.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.9%), KB Home (KBH +3%), Lennar (LEN +3.1%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC +3.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.7%)
Thu, May 26, 10:23 AM
- The NAR's Pending Home Sales Index rose 5.1% to 116.3 in April - the highest level since February 2006. An index level of 100, says the NAR, is considered a "normal" or balanced level of activity. On a Y/Y basis, pending home sales rose 4.6%.
- A decent economy combined with the idea that mortgage rates are finally set for a sustained increase are likely behind the spring homebuying surge.
- Other data - while not as bullish as the pending home sales numbers - also point to a strong season. Both new home sales and existing home sales topped expectations in April.
- Previously: Pending home sales impress in April (May 26)
- ITB +0.6%, XHB +0.1%
Tue, May 24, 10:09 AM
- April new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 619K were a full 16.6% above the upwardly revised March print, and 23.8% higher than year-ago levels. The number also flew past expectations for just a 2% rise to 523K.
- Sales in the Northeast of 55K gained from 36K in March; Midwest of 60K down from 63K; South of 352K vs. 304K; West of 152K vs. 128K.
- Full report
- Tossing this bit of information in with strong FQ2 earnings from Toll Brothers (TOL +6.4%) has the homeowners (ITB +2.7%) surging well ahead of the market averages.
- Hovnanian (HOV +4.9%), KB Home (KBH +3.8%), Beazer (BZH +5.4%), Lennar (LEN +3.2%), Pulte (PHM +3.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +3.3%)
Tue, May 17, 11:36 AM
- Seasonally adjusted annualized housing starts in April of 1.172M were up 6.6% from March, but 1.7% below the rate of one year ago. Expectations for April were 1.127M.
- Single-family starts of 778K were up 3.3% from last month, while multi-family starts shot up by 13.9%.
- The stair-step recovery in starts continues, writes Peter Boockvar, but he reminds they'd have to rise another 30% just to get back to the 30-year average and are 57% below the January 2006 peak.
- Though the major averages off modestly lower today, homebuilders are higher, with ITB up 0.9% and XHB up 0.5%.
Mon, Apr. 25, 10:21 AM
- March new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 511K fell from 519K in February vs. expectations for a small gain to 520K. The pace is "just" 5.4% above that of a year-ago. We say "just" since double-digit year-over-year gains had been the norm for awhile.
- As ZeroHedge (who else) points out, the pace of new homes sales has now fallen for three straight months - the first such streak since 2011.
- Checking regions, the West was particularly notable, with sales plunging to 107K from 140K. Sales in the Northeast were steady, and in the Midwest and South gained.
- ITB -0.55%, XHB -0.6% - both inline with the S&P 500's decline today.
- Now read: Chart Of The Day: Single Family Construction - Stuck In The Sub-Basement Of History (April 21)
Tue, Apr. 19, 10:42 AM
- March's seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.089M housing starts fell 9% from February, though it was 14.2% higher than a year ago. Permits also fell, touching a 12-month low of 1.09M - down 7.7% for the month, but 4.6% higher Y/Y.
- Economist Ian Shepherdson brushes off the weak March print as likely depressed by an earlier Easter. Trulia's Ralph McLaughlin takes a longer view - a 12-month rolling total of starts is up 13% vs. a year ago, the best since 2007. It's still 21% below the 50-year average.
- The homebuilder ETFs ITB and XHB are up 0.2%, roughly inline with the S&P 500's gain today.
- Now read: Housing Construction Forecast 2016-2017: Forget The Old Normal (April 17)
Tue, Apr. 5, 3:05 PM
- Credit Suisse's Buyer Traffic Index rose to 51 in March from 46 in February, indicating demand rising inline with what would be expected given seasonal trends. Improving weather is key, and March was particularly benign this year.
- Limited supply continues to be a challenge in a number of markets, though that can also contribute to a sense of urgency and bring more buyers through open house doors.
- Fourteen of 40 markets saw higher than expected traffic, 12 saw inline traffic, and 14 lower than expected, with Atlanta traffic meaningfully higher and Seattle and Portland remaining among the top markets.
- Credit Suisse's Michael Dahl is ranked 3,138 out of 3,842 analysts on TipRanks.com.
- Homebuilder ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Now read: 2 Homebuilders That Are Pure Value Plays In A Strong Macro Environment (April 4)
Mon, Mar. 21, 11:47 AM
- Existing home sales tumbled 7.1% in February to a seasonally-adjusted annualized pace of 5.08M. Expectations had been for just a mild slip to 5.31M from 5.47M previously.
- The news is a good excuse to take profits in the homebuilders after a big run higher over the past six weeks.
- ITB -1.05%, XHB -0.6%
- Toll Brothers (TOL -1%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.9%), Lennar (LEN -1.1%), KB Home (KBH -1.5%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1%), PulteGroup (PHM -2.6%)
Tue, Mar. 15, 11:36 AM
- The NAHB builder confidence gauge was unchanged in March, staying nicely above the 50-point mid-range at 58.
- It's "slow and steady progress," says NAHB Chairman (and builder) Ed Brady, but respondents continue to report problems with lot and labor shortages.
- The sub-component measuring current sales conditions held stead at 65, while the gauge measuring expectations in six months slipped three points to 61. The buyer traffic measure rose four points to 43.
- Full release
- Homebuilder ETFs: ITB -0.8%, XHB -0.6%
Mon, Mar. 7, 12:43 PM
- Presenting at the Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference, Toll Brothers (TOL +0.4%) CFO Martin Connor - noting pent-up demand - says the company's bullish on the spring selling season. For the first three weeks of FQ2 (began Feb. 1), deposits have been flat when compared with last year.
- The presentation slides offer up a number of nice data points for housing industry (ITB, XHB) fans ...
- Toll Brothers' average delivered home price last year was $755K, putting it at the top of publicly traded homebuilders. At the bottom of the group was D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) at $286K, with shops like Lennar (NYSE:LEN) at $326K and Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) at $382K.
- Bubble reminder: In Q2 of 2006, Toll had 91,207 lots owned and optioned; today 43,819. Revenues in 2006 were $6.115B vs. $1.476B in 2011 and $4.171B last year.
Wed, Feb. 24, 10:07 AM
- New home sales at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 494K in January were 9.2% lower than December and 5.2% above the level one year ago.
- Most regions were fairly stable, with the exception of the West, where sales dropped to 110K from 162K.
- The homebuilder ETFs - ITB, XHB - are down about 1.5%, inline with the broader market.
- Individual names: Toll Brothers (TOL -2.5%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.4%), Lennar (LEN -2%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.1%), Putle (PHM -1.5%), KB Home (KBH -2.1%)
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