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iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB)

  • Mon, Nov. 16, 3:16 PM
    • Spring is the season for home sales, but it's the November-January period that's rally time for homebuilder stocks, says KBW, the team noting 75% of homebuilder returns occur during this period.
    • Homebuilders, they say, historically outperform the market by 1.4% in November, 6.2% in December, and 6.4% in January.
    • The reason isn't too difficult: Markets anticipate, and homebuilding stock buying comes ahead of heavier homebuyer activity.
    • The team's favorite name is Lennar (LEN +2%) thanks to its best-in-class platform and ancillary businesses. D.R. Horton (DHI +1.9%) is also well-positioned given its broad presence and operating leverage, and KB Home's (KBH +1.6%) California exposure and relative valuation puts it in a good spot.
    • ETFs: ITB. XHB
    | Mon, Nov. 16, 3:16 PM | 1 Comment
  • Wed, Nov. 11, 12:31 PM
    • Yesterday's earnings beat and big move higher from D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) spread through the entire sector, and today is seeing plenty of follow-through, with DHI up another 3.2%.
    • Reporting on the UBS conference today, the WSJ's Kris Hudson says Toll Brothers CEO Doug Yearly sounds coy about the upcoming spring selling period, telling attendees he's not pessimistic, but doesn't yet see an impetus pointing to a great season.
    • Of supposed slowing of international buying on the West Coast: "We haven't yet personally seen any negative impact."
    • ITB +1.75%, XHB +0.9%
    • Hovnanian (HOV +5.6%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.3%), Lennar (LEN +2.3%), KB Home (KBH +2.5%), Beazer (BZH +5.9%)
    • Previously: More on D.R. Horton's FQ4 beat (Nov. 10)
    | Wed, Nov. 11, 12:31 PM | 10 Comments
  • Tue, Nov. 10, 12:15 PM
    • D.R. Horton is up 6.8% after cruising through FQ4 estimates, with orders, backlogs, and closings all up smartly, but prices up only modestly. Pre-tax margin gained 60 basis points to 10.7%, and the company boosted its quarterly dividend by two pennies to $0.08 per share (1% yield).
    • Bears might note the beat was helped along by a $17.5M benefit from the company's DTA, but the bulls control the tape today.
    • With the major averages in the red, the homebuilder ETF is up sharply, ITB +1.4%. More focused on industry suppliers, the XHB is up 0.4%.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +1.7%), PulteGroup (PHM +2.4%), Lennar (LEN +1.5%), Ryland (RYL), KB Home (KBH +2.3%), Hovnanian (HOV -0.8%).
    • Previously: More on D.R. Horton's FQ4 beat (Nov. 10)
    • Previously: D. R. Horton beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (Nov. 10)
    | Tue, Nov. 10, 12:15 PM | 1 Comment
  • Mon, Oct. 26, 10:11 AM
    • The pace of new home sales tumbled to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 468K in September. That's down 11.5% from August's 529K (revised down from 552K), and just 2% above the level of a year ago. Analysts had expected a 550K pace in September.
    • The Northeast suffered an unusually large decline, with sales dropping to 13K from 34K ... must have been the weather. Sales in the Midwest fell to 55K from 60K; South to 274K from 300K; West to 126K from 135K.
    • Maybe a bigger issue are prices: The median price of 296.9K was 13.5% higher than a year ago.
    • The homebuilders aren't liking the news: Toll Brothers (TOL -2%), Lennar (LEN -1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.8%), KB Home (KBH -2.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI -2.5%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.4%)
    • ITB -1.6%, XHB -0.7%
    • Full report
    • Previously: New Home Sales hits 10-month low at 468K (Oct. 26)
    | Mon, Oct. 26, 10:11 AM | 14 Comments
  • Thu, Oct. 22, 12:03 PM
    • The major averages are up 1.5%, and a strong existing home sales number this morning added to a beat in housing starts earlier this week, but the homebuilders are retreating.
    • At work are weaker-than-hoped reports from PulteGroup (PHM -6.4%) and M/I Homes (MHO -5.7%).
    • Pulte reported a decline in closings, with ASPs up just a hair vs. the 8% gain in sales prices a year ago. Home sales in Texas slumped 15%, and while net new orders for the company overall rose 8%, they fell 5% in that state.
    • KB Home (KBH -4.3%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1%), Lennar (LEN -0.6%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.2%)
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB
    • Previously: Sale price gains slow down at Pulte (Oct. 22)
    • Previously: M/I Homes misses by $0.04, misses on revenue (Oct. 22)
    | Thu, Oct. 22, 12:03 PM | 3 Comments
  • Tue, Oct. 20, 8:40 AM
    • September housing starts at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 1.206M were up 6.5% from August and 17.5% from one year ago. Single-family starts of 740K were inline with August. Multifamily starts of 454K jumped from 388K.
    • Building permits of 1.103M were down 5% from August and up 4.7% from a year ago. Single-family permits of 697K were inline with August.
    • Up there basis points ahead of the number, the 10-year Treasury yield is now up four to 2.06%. TLT -0.6% premarket.
    • Homebuilder ETFs: ITB, XHB
    | Tue, Oct. 20, 8:40 AM | 9 Comments
  • Mon, Oct. 19, 12:26 PM
    • Targeting millennials, first-time homebuyers and middle-class borrowers, Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) teams with Quicken Loans to offer mortgages requiring as little as a 3% down payment.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Is it any wonder builder (ITB, XHB) confidence surged to its highest level in a decade this month?
    | Mon, Oct. 19, 12:26 PM | 11 Comments
  • Fri, Sep. 25, 7:21 AM
    | Fri, Sep. 25, 7:21 AM | Comment!
  • Thu, Sep. 24, 10:15 AM
    • SIngle-family new home sales in August at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 552K were up 5.7% from July (itself upwardly revised to 522K from 505K). August's pace was also up 21.6% from a year ago.
    • By region, Northeast sales of 36K rose from 29K, Midwest to 60K vs. 66K, South 319K from 297K, and West 137K vs. 130K.
    • Despite the strong August results, homebuilders remain lower alongside the broader market.
    • Leading the way lower is KB Home (KBH -3.4%) which reported an earnings beat this morning, but rising land costs did eat into profit margins.
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB
    • Toll Brothers (TOL -0.4%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.8%), Lennar (LEN -0.9%), D.R. Horton (DHI -0.8%), Standard Pacific (SPF -1.6%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC -1.5%).
    | Thu, Sep. 24, 10:15 AM | 3 Comments
  • Thu, Sep. 17, 3:49 PM
    • Outperforming alongside the big dividend payers are the homebuilders after the FOMC refrained from hiking rates today, but still all but promises tighter policy before the year is out. The big gains in homebuilders are in contrast to the S&P 500 which is flat.
    • The inaction has sparked a major rally in bonds across the curve, with the 10-year yield lower by ten basis points to 2.20% and the two-year yield down a full twelve basis points to 0.68%.
    • Earlier today, August housing starts disappointed, and July starts were revised sharply lower.
    • Previously: August housing starts disappoint; July revised sharply lower (Sept. 17)
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +1.2%), Lennar (LEN +1.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +6%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.1%), Ryland (RYL +2.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2%), KB Home (KBH +2%)
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB
    | Thu, Sep. 17, 3:49 PM | 4 Comments
  • Thu, Sep. 17, 8:45 AM
    • August housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.13M fell 3% from July's 1.16M. The July figure however, had originally been reported as 1.21M. On a year-over-year basis, August starts were up 16.6%.
    • Single-family starts in August of 739K were 3% lower than July's 762K.
    • A longer-term chart from Bill McBride shows single-family starts continuing on a path upward, but still just above levels typically associated with recessions.
    • Permits of 1.17M rose 3.5% from July and 12.5% from a year ago.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield remains lower by two basis points to 2.28%.
    • Full report
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB
    | Thu, Sep. 17, 8:45 AM | 2 Comments
  • Thu, Sep. 3, 3:12 PM
    • How bad a year has it been for multi-industry stocks? Year-to-date underperformance relative to the S&P 500 is among the poorest in a decade and has gotten worse in recent weeks, say Goldman analyst Joe Ritchie and team. The negative news is no secret: Broad industrial de-stock, softening oil capex, the strong dollar, and the troubles in China. Because of this, the team remains Neutral on the beaten-up sector, but does have a few names investors should steer clear of:
    • With de-stock keeping U.S. industrial growth in a "headlock," the implications are particularly negative for Sell-rated Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR), WW Grainger (NYSE:GWW), and Neutral-rated Parker-Hannifin (NYSE:PH) and Rockwell Automation (NYSE:ROK).
    • With oil capex going from bad to worse, and oil lower for longer, the Street is underestimating the impact of price declines for Dover (NYSE:DOV), Emerson, and Flowserve (NYSE:FLS). On the flip side, lower input costs should be a boon to Buy-rated Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) and Neutral-rated 3M (NYSE:MMM).
    • The weaker China backdrop is most negative for Emerson, and Neutral-rated Eaton (NYSE:ETN) and Colfax (NYSE:CFX). Though Buy-rated Honeywell (NYSE:HON) and ITT Corp (NYSE:ITT) have exposure, growth is more insulated due to their market share gains.
    • Source: Barron's Ben Levinsohn
    | Thu, Sep. 3, 3:12 PM | 11 Comments
  • Tue, Aug. 18, 8:47 AM
    • July housing starts of 1.206M edged up from the revised June estimate and were 10.1% above the rate of one year ago. Expectations had been for 1.19M.
    • Single-family housing starts were 782K, up 12.8% from the previous month.
    • The homebuilders put in a nice day yesterday following a rise in the NAHB builder confidence index, and the ITB is up another 1% in premarket action. The XHB is up 0.5%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is up one basis point at 2.18% TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.8%
    • Full report
    | Tue, Aug. 18, 8:47 AM | 18 Comments
  • Wed, Jul. 29, 10:38 AM
    • Sales orders gained a fast 22% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, writes Kris Hudson, lower than some analysts had hoped, but still a strong number. Sequentially though, orders for D.R. Horton, PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM), M/I Homes (NYSE:MHO), and NVR all slowed, according to Housing ResearchCenter, though normal seasonality would call for an increase. Higher interest rates are likely to blame.
    • D.R. Horton's average sales price of $289K rose 2.9% Y/Y, keeping in place a pattern of low-single digit gains over the past year. It's not necessarily that builders are lowering prices, but the mix has changed, with D.R. Horton in particular building larger numbers of less-expensive homes. The company's Express brand of entry-level homes - started in 2013 - accounted for 19% of orders in the last quarter. Still the percentage of first-time homebuyers of 41% was flat Y/Y, and down from 44% two years ago.
    • Credit remains tough to come by, with the average FICO score of D.R. Horton-originated mortgages of 716 last quarter vs. 719 a year ago and 723 two years ago.
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB
    • Previously: D.R. Horton profit nearly doubles (July 28)
    | Wed, Jul. 29, 10:38 AM | 1 Comment
  • Fri, Jul. 24, 10:10 AM
    • Sales of new single-family homes in June at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 482K were 6.8% below the May pace of 517K and 18.1% above the number one year ago. The 482K print is the weakest since November 2014.
    • In a further bit of weakness, May's rate of 517K was originally estimated at 546K.
    • The median sales price of $281.8K slipped 1.8% from a year ago. The supply of new homes for sale was 5.4 months, up from 4.8 months in May.
    • Breaking down sales by region: Northeast 32K in June vs. 25K in May; Midwest 56K vs. 63K; South 282K vs. 294K; West 112K vs. 135K.
    • Treasury prices are snoozing through the news - the 10-year yield remains flat at 2.27%. TLT +0.1%
    • Homebuilders, however, are selling off, with the ITB -1.1%, and the XHB -0.5%.
    | Fri, Jul. 24, 10:10 AM | 6 Comments
  • Wed, Jul. 22, 10:36 AM
    • In the latest data point signaling the housing recovery has shifted into another gear, the NAR earlier reported a 3.2% gain in the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of existing home sales to 5.49M in June.
    • Sales are at their highest pace since February 2007 and are 9.6% above the pace of one year ago.
    • The median price of $236.4K is up 6.5% Y/Y and surpasses the peak set in July 2006.
    • ETFs: ITB +1.5%, XHB +1.5%
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +2%), Lennar (LEN +1.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.9%), Pulte (PHM +2.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Hovnanian (HOV +0.9%), Ryland (RYL +3.1%)
    • Previously: Existing home sales rise to fastest pace in eight years (July 22)
    | Wed, Jul. 22, 10:36 AM | 17 Comments
ITB Description
The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index.
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