Tue, Sep. 20, 12:25 PM
- Lennar (NYSE:LEN) was initially higher following this morning's earnings beat, but has turned lower by 4.3% amid cautious earnings call comments on margins.
- Also at work is today's housing starts report which showed an unexpected sharp decline from July to August, with single-family starts dropping to a 10-month low.
- ITB -1.4%, XHB -0.9%
- Hovnanian (HOV -0.9%), KB Home (KBH -1.4%), Pulte (PHM -3.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.2%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1.4%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC -2.5%), LGI Homes (LGIH -1.3%)
Mon, Sep. 19, 12:01 PM
- The NAHB Index jumped six points to a one-year high of 65 this month vs. expectations for just a marginal gain.
- "With the inventory of new and existing homes remaining tight, builders are confident that if they can build more homes they can sell them," says NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
- The Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar calls this month's print "ebullient," but says the key to sustain things will be the behavior of the first-time homebuyer. We're at a 50-year low in the homeownership rate - will potential first-timers continue to prefer renting? The area most in need of new homes are those priced below $250K (to better compete against renting), but margin issues don't make this a terribly profitable segment for homebuilders.
- ITB +1.9%, XHB +1.5%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.4%), PulteGroup (PHM +3.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.5%), Lennar (LEN +2.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.4%)
Tue, Aug. 23, 10:13 AM
- New home sales flew past expectations in July as they rose 31% on a year-over-year comparison. Sales were higher across all regions of the U.S.
- The median price of a house sold during the month was $294,600. Inventory fell to 4.3 months at the current sales pace.
- June's mark was revised down to 582K from 592K.
- The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSEARCA:ITB) is up 1.3% after the development. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA:XHB) is 1.2% higher.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +2.3%) and KB Home (KBH +2.9%) are notable movers in early trading.
Tue, Jul. 26, 10:16 AM
- June new home sales came in at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 592K, up from May's rate of 572K, and the fastest pace since February 2008.
- Expectations had been for 560K.
- The median price of $306.7K was up 6% Y/Y, and inventory fell to 4.9 months at the current sales pace.
- New home sales in Q2 were up 10% from Q1.
- The ITB popped higher on the news, but has retreated a bit since, now up 0.2% on the session. XHB +0.4%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +0.2%), Hovnanian (HOV +0.8%), Lennar (LEN -0.7%), KB Home (KBH +0.1%), PulteGroup (PHM +0.1%)
Sun, Jul. 3, 2:30 PM
- via Morgan Stanley:
- "The bottom line is that Brexit is ultimately a political crisis and one that is not likely to be resolved in a hurry. There will be many twists and turns in the path to ultimate resolution.
- "There may yet be circumstances that give rise to bigger systemically risky events. For now, we don't think we are quite there and we feel that the current architecture of the global financial system is more resilient than it used to be when the last big storm hit us.
- "That said, caution is clearly warranted. The global economy was not in great shape pre-Brexit and is now worse. There is likely to be more downside to come, particularly in European equities and in GBP.
- "We see US assets across the spectrum - stocks, FX, credit and government bonds - as relative safe havens, and parts of securitized products, particularly US resi credit and broad exposure to US housing, as being relatively insulated."
- ETFs: FXE, XHB, ITB, EUO, REZ, ERO, EUFN, DRR, CEE, TRF, PKB, ULE, GUR, EUFX, ESR, URR, IFEU, HOML, HBU, HBZ, NAIL, HOMX, CLAW, DBSE, FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK, QGBR, HEWU
Thu, Jun. 23, 10:27 AM
- May new home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 551K. This was down 6% from April's rate of 586K. April had originally been reported at the blowout level of 619K.
- On a year-over-year basis, May's pace was up 8.7%.
- Sales in the northeast of 34K fell from 51K in April; midwest of 70K vs. 62K; south 323K vs. 326K; west 124K vs. 147K.
- Full report
- The gain in the homebuilders (ITB +0.6%) today is roughly inline with the S&P 500.
Tue, Jun. 21, 7:14 AM
- iShares S&P Small-Cap Value ETF (NYSEARCA:IJS) - $0.380.
- iShares Mortgage REIT Capped ETF (NYSEARCA:REM) - $0.274.
- iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (NYSEARCA:IDU) - $0.900.
- iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSEARCA:ITB) - $0.029.
- iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) - $0.998.
- Payable June 27; for shareholders of record June 23; ex-div June 21.
Fri, Jun. 17, 10:30 AM
- May housing starts at a seasonally-adjusted annualized pace of 1.164M edged lower from April, but were up 9.5% from a year ago (and vs. expected 1.15M). Single-family starts of 764K were slightly higher than April.
- The major averages are modestly lower on the session, but the homebuilders (ITB +1%) are posting strong gains, led by Toll Brothers (TOL +1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.8%), Lennar (LEN +1.2%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.4%), Beazer (BZH +4.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.2%).
Thu, Jun. 9, 12:07 PM
- The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB -1.7%) today is performing sharply worse than the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB -0.5%). Why? The XHB is more a retailer ETF, with a 40% weighting to companies in the business of furnishing homes rather than those building them.
- Today's meltdown in Restoration Hardware (off 21%) is dragging along names like Williams-Sonoma and Bed Bath& Beyond - all members of the XHB, but not of ITB, which is nearly totally comprised of companies building homes and their suppliers.
- On a YTD basis, ITB is up 3.8%, about 300 basis points better than XHB. On a year-over-year basis, ITB's 7.1% advance is about 1000 basis points ahead of XHB.
Tue, Jun. 7, 2:31 PM
- The major averages are up modestly, but the homebuilders (ITB +2.2%) are posting sharp gains, helped by a report Elliot Management has taken a stake in PulteGroup. Pulte is leading the way with a 4.6% advance.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.9%), KB Home (KBH +3%), Lennar (LEN +3.1%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC +3.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.7%)
Thu, May 26, 10:23 AM
- The NAR's Pending Home Sales Index rose 5.1% to 116.3 in April - the highest level since February 2006. An index level of 100, says the NAR, is considered a "normal" or balanced level of activity. On a Y/Y basis, pending home sales rose 4.6%.
- A decent economy combined with the idea that mortgage rates are finally set for a sustained increase are likely behind the spring homebuying surge.
- Other data - while not as bullish as the pending home sales numbers - also point to a strong season. Both new home sales and existing home sales topped expectations in April.
- Previously: Pending home sales impress in April (May 26)
- ITB +0.6%, XHB +0.1%
Tue, May 24, 10:09 AM
- April new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 619K were a full 16.6% above the upwardly revised March print, and 23.8% higher than year-ago levels. The number also flew past expectations for just a 2% rise to 523K.
- Sales in the Northeast of 55K gained from 36K in March; Midwest of 60K down from 63K; South of 352K vs. 304K; West of 152K vs. 128K.
- Full report
- Tossing this bit of information in with strong FQ2 earnings from Toll Brothers (TOL +6.4%) has the homeowners (ITB +2.7%) surging well ahead of the market averages.
- Hovnanian (HOV +4.9%), KB Home (KBH +3.8%), Beazer (BZH +5.4%), Lennar (LEN +3.2%), Pulte (PHM +3.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +3.3%)
Tue, May 17, 11:36 AM
- Seasonally adjusted annualized housing starts in April of 1.172M were up 6.6% from March, but 1.7% below the rate of one year ago. Expectations for April were 1.127M.
- Single-family starts of 778K were up 3.3% from last month, while multi-family starts shot up by 13.9%.
- The stair-step recovery in starts continues, writes Peter Boockvar, but he reminds they'd have to rise another 30% just to get back to the 30-year average and are 57% below the January 2006 peak.
- Though the major averages off modestly lower today, homebuilders are higher, with ITB up 0.9% and XHB up 0.5%.
Mon, Apr. 25, 10:21 AM
- March new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 511K fell from 519K in February vs. expectations for a small gain to 520K. The pace is "just" 5.4% above that of a year-ago. We say "just" since double-digit year-over-year gains had been the norm for awhile.
- As ZeroHedge (who else) points out, the pace of new homes sales has now fallen for three straight months - the first such streak since 2011.
- Checking regions, the West was particularly notable, with sales plunging to 107K from 140K. Sales in the Northeast were steady, and in the Midwest and South gained.
- ITB -0.55%, XHB -0.6% - both inline with the S&P 500's decline today.
- Now read: Chart Of The Day: Single Family Construction - Stuck In The Sub-Basement Of History (April 21)
Tue, Apr. 19, 10:42 AM
- March's seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.089M housing starts fell 9% from February, though it was 14.2% higher than a year ago. Permits also fell, touching a 12-month low of 1.09M - down 7.7% for the month, but 4.6% higher Y/Y.
- Economist Ian Shepherdson brushes off the weak March print as likely depressed by an earlier Easter. Trulia's Ralph McLaughlin takes a longer view - a 12-month rolling total of starts is up 13% vs. a year ago, the best since 2007. It's still 21% below the 50-year average.
- The homebuilder ETFs ITB and XHB are up 0.2%, roughly inline with the S&P 500's gain today.
- Now read: Housing Construction Forecast 2016-2017: Forget The Old Normal (April 17)
Tue, Apr. 5, 3:05 PM
- Credit Suisse's Buyer Traffic Index rose to 51 in March from 46 in February, indicating demand rising inline with what would be expected given seasonal trends. Improving weather is key, and March was particularly benign this year.
- Limited supply continues to be a challenge in a number of markets, though that can also contribute to a sense of urgency and bring more buyers through open house doors.
- Fourteen of 40 markets saw higher than expected traffic, 12 saw inline traffic, and 14 lower than expected, with Atlanta traffic meaningfully higher and Seattle and Portland remaining among the top markets.
- Credit Suisse's Michael Dahl is ranked 3,138 out of 3,842 analysts on TipRanks.com.
- Homebuilder ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Now read: 2 Homebuilders That Are Pure Value Plays In A Strong Macro Environment (April 4)