Dec. 2, 2013, 11:31 AM
- Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker completes his turn from one of the Street's most bearish to its most bullish investment strategist with his S&P 500 2014 in 2014 target - an 11.5% advance from here. "The only thing people are worried about is that no one is worried about anything," he says ... "That isn't a real worry."
- He's not discounting the chance of a "Pavlovian" sell-off amid taper banter, but says any spring dip as the taper commences will be a buying opportunity "unless our outlook for corporate earnings markedly deteriorates.”
- "It isn’t preposterous to say that we could be in an environment of synchronous global economic expansion in 2014, and tapering or not, that isn’t fully in today’s prices.”
- S&P 500 ETFs: SPY, SH, SSO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, VOO, RSP, RWL, EPS, BXUB, TRND, SFLA, BXUC, BXDB, IVE, SPYV, RPV, VOOV, FTA, IVW, SPYG, RPG, VOOG
Dec. 2, 2013, 7:15 AM
- Stock index futures are flat ahead of a busy week of economic data, beginning today with the PMI and ending on Friday with November payrolls.
- Europe's down moderately, and Asia was mixed overnight.
- The big mover is the 10-year Treasury yield - up 4 basis points to 2.79%.
- Index ETFs: SPY, QQQ, IVE, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, VOO, QID, SPXS, SPXL, TQQQ, DOG, RSP, SQQQ, DXD, QLD, RWL, EPS, IWD, UDOW, SDOW, DDM, IWB, SPYV, BXUB, RPV, QQEW, QQQE, VONE, VOOV, TRND, SFLA, ROLA, BXUC, FTA, QQXT, ONEK, BXDB, UVG, VONV, EWRI, TNDQ, LGLV, SJF
Oct. 23, 2013, 3:25 PM
- 'Skepticism about equity markets remains high," says deep-value investing giant Richard Pzena. Given the level of interest rates, the S&P 500 would have to rise by about 15% just to restore the historical equity risk premium. Put another way, the 10-year Treasury yield would have to rise to 3.8% vs. 2.5% today for the current level of the S&P to make sense.
- Think the market should go down? By Pzena's calculation, the 10-year Treasury yield would have to jump to 5% to justify a S&P 500 10% lower than it is now.
- What about value? Even five years since the end of the financial crisis, value stocks still have double-digit expected returns going forward if value spreads return to their norms, he says.
- Pzena Investment Management (PZN) Q3 earnings call transcript.
- S&P 500 ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDB.
- S&P 500 value ETFs: SPYV, IVE, RPV, VOOV, FTA.
Oct. 21, 2013, 3:23 PM
- The S&P 500's 22% YTD return has been driven almost entirely by multiple expansion rather than higher earnings, says Goldman's David Kostin. That and the fact that the Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE) Ratio made famous by now-Nobel-laureate Robert Shiller suggests the index is about 30% overvalued isn't enough to have Kostin forecasting a bear market.
- Instead, the music's playing so we dance - he sees a flat S&P through year-end, but has a target of 1,900, or 9% above today's level in 2014.
- Kostin's excellent charts: Markets and money flow, Mutual fund flows, Market performance YTD.
- S&P 500 ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDB, IVW, RPG, SPYG, VOOG, SPYV, IVE, RPV, VOOV, FTA,
Oct. 1, 2013, 8:28 AM
- We didn't start the fire. Today's government shutdown is the 17th in the last 100 years, with 16 of those occurring since 1976.
- Compiling the returns of the S&P 500 (SPY) during those other episodes, Raymond James' Jeff Saut finds little to base a market call on - the median return is negative 0.1% and returns are positive 47% of the time.
- S&P 500 ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDB, IVW, RPG, SPYG, VOOG, SPYV, IVE, RPV, VOOV, FTA.
Sep. 29, 2013, 9:13 PM
- Particularly apt reading tonight as stocks head south on worry about a partial U.S. government shutdown, The Brooklyn Investor makes the case for trying to ignore whatever the latest macro-boogeyman happens to be, and instead focus on buying and holding reasonably valued stocks. Paraphrasing Seth Klarman: "You just have to figure out what a business can earn in five or ten years on a normalized basis and see what it's worth; if you can buy it for lower than that, then it doesn't matter what the headlines say."
- The Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratio does raise TBI's eyebrow as it shows the market to be 47% overvalued, but it was similarly so in 1966. While the averages did nothing over the next 16 years, the "Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville" (Walter Schloss, Tweedy Brown, Sequoia Fund) racked up ridiculous returns (this, of course, may be of little comfort to index investors).
- Buffett's classic "Superinvestors" article from 1984.
- Can the market go down? A lot? No doubt, says TBI, but the odds against being able to exploit a bear market are far too long - better to spend time looking for stocks trading at 1.1x book that should be selling for 1.5x book.
- Index value ETFs: SPYV, IVE, RPV, VOOV, FTA, SPYV, IVE, RPV, VOOV, FTA, IWN, VTWV, UVT, SJH, IWW, MDYV, IJJ, RFV, IVOV, SLYV, IJS, RZV, VIOV.
Sep. 25, 2013, 11:45 AM| Sep. 25, 2013, 11:45 AM
Sep. 4, 2013, 9:49 AM
- "When the President is in trouble, the stock market is in trouble," said Eliot Janeway years ago. "Clearly the President is in trouble," says Raymond James' normally bullish, but recently cautious Jeff Saut.
- Yesterday's opening spike was seemingly the result of short-covering from those who sold Friday expecting missiles to fly over the weekend, says Saut. Once sated, markets drifted downward, barely eking out a gain by day's end. "Up mornings and down afternoons is not particularly good stock market action."
- This correction likely won't be complete until the S&P 500 moves south of 1,600 (1,640 at the moment), says Saut, but he expects the index to remain above 1,500.
- Notable is the level of investor complacency as shown by this chart from Jason Goepfert: The ratio of mutual fund and ETF assets to money market fund assets is at an all-time high of 3.49 - surpassing the levels seen at the peaks in 2000 and 2007.
- S&P 500 ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDB, IVW, RPG, SPYG, VOOG, SPYV, IVE, RPV, VOOV, FTA,.
Sep. 2, 2013, 6:29 PM
- What George Soros' The Alchemy of Finance was to global macro investors, Michael Burry's journal of trades in 2000/2001 may be to value fans. "My strategy isn't very complex. I try to buy shares of unpopular companies when they look like road kill, and sell them when they've been polished up a bit ... I care little about the level of the general market and put few restrictions on potential investments."
- Plucked out of message-board obscurity and staked by Joel Greenblatt, Burry posted returns at his Scion Capital hedge fund of 8.2% in 2000 (partial year), 44.7% in 2001, and 13.1% in 2002, as the S&P lost 7.5%, 11.9%, and 22.1% during the same periods. When the S&P bounced 28.7% in 2003, Scion gained 50.7%.
- This journal shows Burry willing to venture into just about any industry or situation as long as he sees value there. One place he definitely didn't spot value was in the previously-favored big cap tech names as their stock prices imploded. "Now that the bubble is pricked, tech stocks will face scrutiny they never faced before. It is a good time to start picking prices based on a solid understanding of the fundamentals ... greater bargains are sure to come."
- Burry went on make an even bigger fortune for himself and his investors by shorting MBS from 2005 on (though his investors, including Greenblatt, never forgave him for straying from stockpicking).
- Value ETFs: SPYV, IVE, RPV, VOOV, FTA, IWD, VONV, UVG, SJF, IWN, VTWV, UVT, SJH, IWW, MDYV, IJJ, RFV, IVOV, SLYV, IJS, RZV, VIOV.
Aug. 24, 2013, 8:25 AM
- Judging by the latest fund-flow data, investors are selling now and asking questions later, yanking $12.3B out of U.S. stock funds last week, the biggest outflow in more than five years.
- A combined $20B flew out of stocks and bonds, while money market funds saw an influx of new cash.
- The question now is whether the big outflows across asset classes marks the beginning of a new trend, especially as concerns grow about the Fed’s next move.
- ETFs: SPY, VTI, IYY, EXT, IVE, SSO, IVV, SH, SDS, SPXU.
Aug. 7, 2013, 7:04 AM
- S&P 500 (SPY) futures -0.4% and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) -0.3% as jitters continue over imminent tapering of QE.
- Europe's moderately lower and Asia fell sharply overnight, notably Japan where the Nikkei tumbled 3.9%.
- Things are calm in rate land, the 10-year Treasury yield flat at 2.63%.
- Related ETFs: IVE, SSO, IVV, SH, SDS, SPXU, PSQ, QID.
Jul. 24, 2013, 12:51 PMThree signs we're close to a market top, according to Mark Hulbert: 1) A bull market's best returns typically come right before it dies, with the average bull gaining 21% in the year before topping. The SPY is currently up 23% Y/Y. 2) Riskiest stocks do best ahead of tops, and growth stocks have trumped value stocks by triple the historical norm in the last year. 3) Contrary to expectations, a nosebleed level of a P/E ratio is not a necessary condition for a market top. | Jul. 24, 2013, 12:51 PM | 5 Comments
Jul. 18, 2013, 3:29 PMThe stock market's (VTI, SPY, DIA) in for a rough summer, says Guggenheim's Scott Minerd as his favorite indicator - the advance/decline line - dropped more than the indices during June's decline, suggesting something bigger coming soon. The action is very similar to what we saw in 2007, he says. The deteriorating technical picture combined with worrying signs for the global economy makes this a rally to sell, not buy. | Jul. 18, 2013, 3:29 PM | 9 Comments
Jul. 17, 2013, 3:22 PM"We still haven't had the capitulation phase, we still have negative attitudes," says Laszlo Birinyi, arguing the market (SPY, QQQ, DIA) is headed higher. There's no better indicator than money flows, he says, and it's a lot more than the Fed putting money into the market. HIs year-end target S&P target of 1,700 is just a few points away, so what then? "This is a long trip and people want to know when are we going to get to L.A., and I'm saying let's get to Chicago first." | Jul. 17, 2013, 3:22 PM | 4 Comments
Jul. 15, 2013, 12:22 PMBAML hikes its year-end S&P (SPY) target to 1,750, with the team noting a strict medium-term fundamental/valuation analysis calls for just a 1,720 target. Experience shows, however, that tactical, technical, and sentiment models need also be incorporated. Adding those in boosts the gauge to 1,750 compared to the current price of 1,682. | Jul. 15, 2013, 12:22 PM
Jul. 5, 2013, 8:36 AM
Treasury prices crumble following June's strong employment gain. In addition to May's 20K upward revision, April's print was revised higher by 50K to 199K. The 10-year Treasury yield is up to 2.63%. TLT -1.4%, TBT +2.9% premarket. Stock index futures, however, move to new session highs, SPY +1.4%, QQQ +1.2% premarket.| Jul. 5, 2013, 8:36 AM
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