Tue, Nov. 3, 4:36 PM
- Q3 core earnings of $0.40 per share vs. $0.41 in Q2. Dividend is $0.40.
- Book value per share of $17.66 down from $18.62 a quarter earlier. Today's close of $12.23 is a whopping 30.7% discount to book.
- Deducting the change in book value from the divided yields a negative economic return for the quarter of $0.56 per share, or 3% for the quarter.
- 3.7M shares repurchased during quarter for $50M.
- Agency MBS allocation is cut another 300 basis points to 35%; commercial credit is upped to 34% from 30% (closed a $34M CRE loan during quarter); residential credit of 31% vs. 32%.
- Earnings call tomorrow at 9 ET
- Previously: Invesco Mortgage Capital misses by $0.02, beats on net interest income (Nov. 3)
- IVR flat after hours
Tue, Nov. 3, 4:32 PM
Mon, Nov. 2, 5:35 PM
- ACHC, AFG, AIV, AMSG, ASH, ATVI, AWR, BIO, BKH, CBPO, CBS, CERN, CHEF, CHUY, CIM, CKP, CSU, CSV, CVC, DAC, DENN, DHT, DK, DKL, DVA, DVN, ECYT, ENPH, ENSG, EPIQ, ETSY, EVRI, FANG, FARO, FIVN, FLTX, FMI, FOGO, GHDX, GMED, GRPN, HCI, HL, HLF, HRZN, IAG, IPHS, IRWD, ITRI, IVR, JCOM, KEG, LLNW, MPO, MTZ, MXL, MYGN, NFX, NYMT, OAS, OCLR, OESX, OFIX, OKE, OKS, ORA, PAA, PAGP, PAYC, PBPB, PKD, QUAD, REGI, RIGL, RLOC, RP, RPAI, RXN, SLW, SSNI, SUPN, TDW, TMH, TSLA, TSRA, TX, UNTD, USNA, VNDA, WBMD, WR, WTR, X, XEC, XOXO, XXIA, Y, ZAGG, ZEN, ZNGA
Tue, Oct. 27, 3:34 PM
- The sector's 2nd-largest (by market cap) name, American Capital Agency reported another weak quarter last night and is lower by 5.2%.
- Previously: American Capital takes questions after weak quarter (Oct. 27)
- Previously: Wunderlich throws in the towel on American Capital Agency (Oct. 27)
- Previously: Earnings and book value fall at American Capital Agency (Oct. 26)
- Number one by market cap Annaly Capital (NLY -2%) reports next week.
- Others: Armour Residential (ARR -3.1%), Two Harbors (TWO -2.2%), CYS Investments (CYS -2.6%), Invesco (IVR -2.5%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -4%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -3.8%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -3%), Capstead (CMO -2.8%), Western Asset (WMC -3.1%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.3%), Dynex Capital (DX -4.2%), AG Mortgage (MITT -3.6%).
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
Mon, Sep. 28, 12:24 PM
- It's a big ex-dividend day for the mortgage REIT sector, but the stocks of payers like Ellington Residential (EARN -6.2%), Arlington Asset (AI -10.4%), Western Asset (WMC -4.9%), Two Harbors (TWO -5.7%), Chimera Investment (CIM -7.3%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -6.9%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.2%), and Annaly Capital (NLY -4.8%), are down far more than their payout amounts.
- The above declines include the dividends being paid, so are higher than actual.
- Others like Armour Residential (ARR -2.9%), Javelin Mortgage (JMI -4.2%), Five Oaks (OAKS -5.9%), AG Mortgage (MITT -3.4%), and Invesco (IVR -4.2%) are just down.
- The decline comes as another Fed head all but promises a rate hike this year, and the 10-year Treasury yield falls back six basis points to 2.10%. Thirty-day Fed Fund futures are pricing in just less than a 50% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in 2015.
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
Thu, Sep. 17, 2:31 PM
- Income favorites like mortgage REITs (REM +1.6%) and equity REITs (IYR +1.4%) are the knee-jerking upward after the FOMC decided to keep ZIRP in place a least a little while longer.
- The "dots" still say a rate hike (and maybe two) is coming before year-end.
- Annaly Capital (NLY +2.1%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.6%), Armour Residential (ARR +1.5%), Two Harbors, (TWO +1.3%), Invesco (IVR +1.6%), Dynex Capital (DX +1.5%).
- Spirit Realty (SRC +2.4%), Health Care REIT (HCN +3%), HCP (HCP +2.3%), Gramercy Property (GPT +1.9%), Post Properties (PPS +2.5%), Brixmor (BRX +1.4%), Kimco (KIM +1.6%), Public Storage (PSA +1.1%), Chatham Lodging (CLDT +2.3%), Stag Industrial (STAG +1.8%)
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS, IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, RQI, SCHH, ICF, SRS, RWR, RNP, JRS, KBWY, RFI, NRO, DRV, RIT, REK, RIF, FRI, FTY, PSR, DRA, FREL, WREI, IARAX
Tue, Sep. 15, 4:15 PM
Tue, Sep. 8, 11:28 AM
- "[Mortgage REITs] have almost never been as cheap as they are right now," says Nomura's Brock Vandervilet, who recommended buys in Annaly Capital (NLY +0.5%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.4%) a bit less than a month ago.
- Barron's Current Yield
- They're cheap for a reason, and companies which borrow short, lend long, and toss in a healthy amount of leverage can be expected to struggle when funding costs rise faster than the yield on the assets they hold (also known as a flattening yield curve), and most expect a rate hike if not this month, then soon after. The question at hand is whether the flatter yield curve has been priced in (or more than priced in), and discounts to book value north of 20% for at least some in the sector suggests it has.
- “It is going to take forever and a day for rates to rise, which is going to give these companies plenty of time to reposition,” says Vandervilet.
- KBW likes Annaly, American Capital, and CYS Investments (CYS +0.5%), and Chimera (CIM +0.8%) as having the most upside if somehow there is no rate increase or in a "slow, but steady" rate-hike scenario.
- Wunderlich's Merrill Ross would add Invesco (IVR +0.4%) to that group as being attractive despite the headwinds.
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
Tue, Sep. 1, 2:54 PM
- The financial sector is leading the market lower today, but these sessions often see money flow into REITs. There's no green to be found, but mortgage REITs like Annaly Capital (NLY -0.3%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.2%), Anworth Mortgage (ANH -0.2%), Chimera (CIM -0.1%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.1%), Invesco (IVR -0.3%), and Dynex (DX -0.7%) are outperforming by a wide margin.
- Equity REITs are doing better than the XLF and S&P 500, but still sharply lower: Realty Income (O -1.5%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -2.2%), HCP (HCP -1.2%), Gramercy Property (GPT -1.9%), Equity Residential (EQR -2.4%), Kimco (KIM -2.1%), Simon Property (SPG -2.2%), Public Storage (PSA -1.1%), Hospitality Properties (HPT -2.1%), Stag Industrial (STAG -1.2%)
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, MORL, REM, MORT, DRN, URE, RQI, SCHH, ICF, SRS, RWR, RNP, JRS, KBWY, RFI, NRO, DRV, RIT, REK, RIF, FRI, FTY, PSR, DRA, FREL, WREI, LMBS, IARAX
Tue, Aug. 18, 8:07 AM
- Q2 core earnings of $50M and $0.41 per share vs. $61.9M and $0.50 in Q1. Dividend is $0.45.
- Book value per share of $18.62 (inline with preliminary results released last week) slips from $19.37 at the end of Q1. Last night's close of $13.94 is a 25% discount to book.
- Economic return - the change in book value plus the dividend - for the quarter of -1.5%. Company notes economic return of 3.7% for all of H1 is among the top in mREIT industry.
- Equity allocation: 38% to agency MBS, 32% to residential credit, 30% to commercial credit. Increased allocation to agency hybrid ARMs in Q2 and closed two commercial loans totaling $71M.
- Previously: Invesco Mortgage Capital misses by $0.06, beats on revenue (Aug. 17)
- IVR flat premarket
- Previously: Invesco Mortgage lower after preliminary results, restatements (Aug. 11)
Mon, Aug. 17, 5:09 PM
Tue, Aug. 11, 10:50 AM
- The company expects to reported June 30 book value per share of $18.62, down from $19.37 a quarter earlier. Economic return - adding the $0.45 dividend to the decline in book value - should be negative 1.5%. The current price of $13.68 is a whopping 26.5% discount to June 30 book.
- Q2 earnings are set to be released in a week.
- Thanks to an error in the GAAP accounting treatment for certain company assets, Invesco (IVR -1.1%) needs to restate 2013, 2014, and Q1 2015 GAAP results. The restatements should not impact previously reported book value or economic return.
- Bank of America downgrades to Neutral from Buy.
- Source: Press Release
Fri, Jul. 24, 3:01 PM
- Just a 1% decline in the major averages (which are being helped by some high-profile earnings moves) is masking far greater carnage in a number of other sectors, notably healthcare (XLV -2.5%) and energy (XLE -2%).
- Business development companies and mortgage REITs are being socked again as well, suggesting the worry may go beyond interest rates and to credit in general, especially as commodity prices continue to tumble - to pick one, crude oil at $48.06 per barrel is at its lowest price in about four months.
- Among BDCs: Hercules Technology Growth (HTGC -4.2%), Triangle Capital (TCAP -3.3%), PennantPark Investment (PNNT -5.4%), Prospect Capital (PSEC -1.4%), Main Street Capital (MAIN -2.8%), TICC Capital (TICC -2.4%), KCAP Financial (KCAP -2.6%), THL Credit (TCRD -2.7%), FS Investment (FSIC -1.8%).
- Among mREITs: Armour Residential (ARR -3.1%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.9%), CYS Investments (CYS -2%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -1.5%), Capstead Mortgage (CMO -1.2%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -2.6%), Arlington Asset (AI -3.7%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -0.9%), Orchid Island (ORC -5.8%).
- MReit ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
- BDC ETFs: BDCL, BDCS, BIZD, FGB
Thu, Jul. 23, 1:17 PM
- CYS Investments last night reported a big drop in book value as the effect of sharply higher rates more than offset the company's hedges. Core income failed to cover the dividend as prepayments also rose.
- The stock today is down 2.6% and trading at more than a 20% discount to book value.
- Earlier this week, Hatteras also reported a decline in income and fall in book value.
- Sector giants Annaly Capital (NLY -0.5%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.7%) are performing the best today. Armour Residential (ARR -1.8%), Chimera Investment (CIM -0.8%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -1.1%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -1.2%), Western Asset Mortgage (WMC -1%), Anworth Mortgage (ANH -1.2%), Arlington Asset (AI -2.3%), Ellington Residential (EARN -2.1%), Dynex Capital (DX -0.8%)
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
Wed, Jul. 8, 11:27 AM
- Continuing a change of focus from assets likely to go down in value as rates rise to those likely to benefit from higher rates and improved credit, Invesco Mortgage (IVR -0.8%) provides about $21M in mezzanine financing secured by a pledge of equity interests in a luxury Florida hotel. It's a floating-rate deal with a three-year term, with two one-year extension options.
- It's IVR's ninth direct floating-rate financing.
- Source: Press Release
Thu, Jun. 25, 4:17 PM
- The XLU underperformed again today, losing 0.7% and bringing its year-to-date decline to more than 12%.
- Looking at equity REITs, the IYR dipped another 0.95% and VNQ fell 1%. Both are down about 6% in 2015, and roughly 15% since late January. Some individual names: Spirit Realty (SRC -2.8%), Senior Housing (SNH -1.2%), HCP (HCP -1.4%), American Realty Capital (ARCP -3%), Gramercy Property (GPT -2.8%), Duke Realty (DRE -2%).
- In mortgage REITs, REM lost 0.9% today and is off 7% YTD. Some individual names: American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.2%), Armour (ARR -1%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.9%), Annaly Capital (NLY -0.8%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -1.2%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -1.1%), PennyMac Mortgage (PMT -2.3%), Western Asset Mortgage (WMC -2.7%).
- The 10-year Treasury yield gained three basis points to 2.40%.
- Previously: Sell-side abandoning REITs as rates rise (June 25)
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, RQI, SCHH, ICF, SRS, RWR, RNP, JRS, KBWY, RFI, NRO, DRV, RIT, REK, RIF, FRI, FTY, PSR, DRA, FREL, WREI, IARAX
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