Sun, Aug. 7, 12:40 PM
- As fears mount about the impacts of Zika, Canaccord's Tony Dwyer is warning that the health crisis (compounded with Italian bank issues, a more hawkish Fed and energy price weakness) could morph into the Ebola scare that enveloped the market two years ago.
- The S&P 500 slipped 1.7% off its peak once the first U.S. Ebola case was reported in September 2014, and by the time the third American case was diagnosed, the market was already down 7%.
- "Obviously, no two situations are exactly alike, but this is pretty close," concluded Dwyer. "I'm not looking for anything like a 10% decline... but this could be the catalyst we've been looking for."
- Related tickers: SNY, INO, AEMD, XON, CEMI, BCRX, TMO, OTCQB:GOVX
Mon, Apr. 18, 8:23 AM
- 35 S&P 500 companies have reported earnings thus far, according to S&P CapIQ's most recent earnings report.
- 71% have reported earnings better than Street expectations. Collectively, the S&P 500 has reported a +8.2% EPS surprise.
- Of those companies that have announced earnings, 49% have shown double-digit or better Y/Y growth.
- Overall, EPS growth thus far is -8.3%.
- 95 companies report this week, including Intel, Yahoo and McDonald's.
- Thus far, consumer discretionary companies have outperformed (11.3% growth), and materials companies are lagging (-17.8%).
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, VOO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, SPXS, SPYG, RWL, VFINX, EPS, IVW, SPYV, RPG, RPV, VOOG, VOOV, BXUB, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, FTA, SPUU, DHVW, LLSP, CAPX, RYARX
- Now read The Potential Benefits Of Stock Buybacks »
Fri, Apr. 8, 5:34 AM
- Nomura's Bob Janjuah is out with another bearish note. He says rally off of the February lows in risk assets "has been marginally stronger than anticipated."
- "My confidence on my negative views for global growth, on my belief in deflation over inflation and on the deeply negative outlook for earnings are now set even more in stone. The Fed has told me as much. In fact, I suspect that the Fed in private is far more concerned about these factors than it is currently willing to admit.
- "The Fed’s change in March was all about weakening the USD, which in turn is designed to help the U.S. economy fight off imported deflation, instead of which the Fed hopes to import inflation into its economy.
- "I am also even more convinced now that we are about 10 months through a multi-year bear market that likely won’t bottom until late 2017 or early 2018.
- "The critical longer-term question to my mind is whether the Fed is going to re-introduce QE and/or cut rates ultimately into negative territory... My view is still that the Fed does not actually do anything more than jaw-bone until or unless the S&P500 cash index is into the 1500s and the outlook for growth, employment and inflation get significantly worse. In terms of credibility, while I think the ECB and the BOJ are scraping the barrel, the Fed still has the ability to influence things, at least for now.
- "I also do not think that this current rally leg has much left in it – the power of Fedspeak without Fed action is already waning."
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, VOO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, SPXS, SPYG, RWL, VFINX, EPS, IVW, SPYV, RPG, RPV, VOOG, VOOV, SPLX, SFLA, FTA, SPUU, DHVW, LLSP, CAPX, RYARX
- Now read Expecting 10% To 15% Correction In U.S. Equities »
Thu, Mar. 24, 6:06 AM
- UBS technicians Michael Riesner and Marc Muller, who called both of the most recent selloffs, are out with a note telling clients to take profits on the S&P 500:
- "Last week, we saw the suggested overshooting into expiration and the SPX reached the upper end of our projected late Q1/early Q2 target at 2050, which leaves the short-term picture in the U.S. unchanged as to what we highlighted last week. With the rally of the last few weeks and looking at our daily trend work, the SPX has reached its most overbought position since 2009!! Together with significant non-confirmations in our medium-term momentum work, and trading in the time window of our late Q1/early Q2 top projection, we see the market vulnerable for a significant reversal this week, which we would see as the beginning of a tactical top building process and subsequent correction into deeper Q2. We reiterate our last week’s comment and would not chase the market on current elevated levels.
- "After being aggressively oversold, we saw the February 11th risk bottom as the basis for a multi-week bear market rally in global equities into the late March/early April timeframe with a price target 2000/2050 in the SPX before starting a new significant tactical down leg into deeper summer. Last week, we said that a final overshooting into expiration is still likely, but particularly in the week after triple witching we very often see important tactical trend reversals in the market.
- "The February/March rebound was nearly vertical, which is not sustainable. With last week’s extension our daily trend work has reached its most overbought position since 2009. Together with our weekly momentum reaching overbought extremes we have a relatively high likelihood of seeing the market move into an important medium-term top followed by a significant setback. Even if our big picture market view (U.S. and global equity markets are in a cyclical bear market that we expect to continue into Q1 2017) proves to be too bearish, with such an indicator setup we should see the US market minimum ahead of a multi-week consolidation pattern, where we should see higher volatility and therefore a significant pullback."
- Now read 10 Reasons Why Stocks Bounced Back So Hard »
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, SPXU, SPXL, RSP, SPXS, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, VFINX, RPG, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, VOOV, SPLX, SFLA, FTA, SPUU, DHVW, LLSP, CAPX, RYARX
Dec. 8, 2015, 12:31 PM
- The bulk of Bank of America Merrill Lynch's 2016 global outlook is a near-perfect extrapolation of current trends and themes - modest economic growth, a slow rise in U.S. rates diverging from other global central banks, commodities and credit under pressure, continued recovery in U.S. housing.
- One standout line does interest however, and that's the team's expectation for value to make a comeback versus growth.
- The research is fairly ample that value trumps growth, but it hasn't worked out that way for years. As measured by the Vanguard Value ETF (NYSEARCA:VTV) and the Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:VUG), growth has trumped value by 690 basis points this year, and more than 2K basis points over the last five years.
- It brings to mind another long period of growth beating value - the mid-to-late 1990s (how'd that one work out?).
- ETFs: IVE, VUG, IWF, VTV, SKF, IWD, SPYG, IVW, RPV, RPG, MGK, SCHG, SPYV, SCHV, VOOG, VOOV, PWV, MGV, IWY, JKE, FTA, PWB, EZY, VONG, VONV, FNDX, FBG, DVP, IWX, FTC, PXLG, JKF, IELG, PXLV, SYG, FLGE, GVT, FBGX, RWG, SYV, FIBG, DHVW, CAPX
Oct. 1, 2015, 10:54 AM
- November tends to be the busiest month for buybacks, according to Goldman Sachs, with 13% of annual repurchase spending occurring then. Not surprisingly, Q4 tends to be the busiest quarter for buybacks, with 30% of them coming then.
- Separate data from Chris Prybal shows a spike in short interest in S&P 500 stocks of late, with the level topping $8B for the first time since 2009.
- Previously: Goldman cuts S&P 500 forecasts (Sept. 29)
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, SPXU, SPXL, RSP, SPXS, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, VFINX, RPV, RPG, SPYV, VOOG, VOOV, BXUB, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, FTA, SPUU, LLSP, DHVW, RYARX, CAPX
Jul. 12, 2015, 6:23 AM
- As companies in the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 begin to release second quarter results, high valuations could threaten to keep the U.S. stock market spinning in place.
- At 16.5x forward estimates, the S&P 500, up less than 2% for the year to date through Friday, is about 10% more expensive than its historic average of 15, according to Thomson Reuters estimates.
- While still well below the 24.5 ratio at the height of the dot-com era bubble, the price to earnings multiple recently hit its highest level since 2004.
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, SPXU, SPXL, RSP, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, VFINX, RPV, RPG, SPYV, VOOG, VOOV, BXUB, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, FTA, SPUU, CAPX, RYARX, DHVW
Jan. 31, 2015, 8:25 AM
- CEOs are far more pessimistic about corporate earnings than any time since the financial crisis, according to research from Bespoke.
- The percentage of companies lowering earnings forecasts during this reporting cycle has led those with upward revisions by 8.6 percentage points, the widest margin since Q4 2008, according to data compiled by the firm.
- The consumer staples group has seen the highest percentage of companies lowering guidance at 37.5%, while 17%-20% of health care and consumer discretionary companies have lowered; surprisingly, energy is among the sectors that are cutting guidance the least.
- Analysts now expect per-share earnings from S&P 500 companies to fall 2.1% in Q1 and slip another 1.1% in Q2, Bloomberg calculates; if correct, it would be the first back-to-back profit contractions since 2009.
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, RPG, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, VOOV, SPLX
Oct. 15, 2014, 8:41 AM
- The 10-year Treasury yield is quickly heading towards a "1" handle, off nine basis points this morning to just 2.11% after a trio of weak economic reports, led by core retail sales falling 0.2% in September vs. an expected gain of 0.3%.
- There was also a big slump in the Empire State survey, and core PPI came in flat vs. an expected gain of 0.1%.
- Down moderately earlier, S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures are now lower by 1.1%.
- TLT +1%, TBT -2% premarket
- Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, PST, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, TYO, DTYS, DLBS, VGLT, UST, UBT, TLO, VGIT, TBX, GSY, TENZ, SCHR, DTYL, TYD, LBND, ITE, TYBS, DLBL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVL, DFVS, TYNS
- S&P 500 ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, RPG, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, BXUB, VOOV, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, FTA, SPUU
Oct. 14, 2014, 3:00 PM
- The stock market has hit a detour and investors should be concerned says Laszlo Birinyi, taking down the chance the S&P 500 (SPY +0.4%) hits his 2,100 year-end target to 60% from 80%. "Our biggest concern," says Birinyi, "is that we are not sure as to what is happening."
- On oil: “No commodity is more tracked, analyzed, and discussed and yet all of a sudden we have a glut and a surplus?”
- Global economy: “Germany and France have replaced Greece and Spain as economies of concern and the market has, rightly so, taken notice.”
- For now, Birinyi is taking a cautious stance, and would be hesitant about committing new money to stocks.
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, RPG, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, BXUB, VOOV, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, FTA, SPUU
Oct. 13, 2014, 4:38 PM
- The S&P 500 (SPY -1.6%) is now lower by 6.8% from last month's record high, says the WSJ's Steven Russolillo, making this current pullback the market's worst in two-and-a-half years.
- Checking in before today's sharp decline, Bespoke noted 63% of stocks in the index were considered to be in oversold territory, with just 10% overbought. It's surely a wider gulf now.
- A bounce is in order. Timing unclear.
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, RPG, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, BXUB, VOOV, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, FTA, SPUU
Jun. 10, 2014, 1:21 PM
- Credit Suisse and UBS will each launch a fund tomorrow with the help of advisor, Ken Fisher, who played a part in the successful launch of the Barclays ETN + FI Enhanced Global High Yield ETN (FIGY) just over a year ago.
- The Credit Suisse FI Large Cap Growth Enhanced Exchange Traded Notes (FLGE) and the UBS AG FI Enhanced Large Cap Growth ETN (FBGX) will each feature a leveraged strategy while investing in domestic large-cap firms.
- The third launch will be the ETRACS Wells Fargo MLP Ex-Energy ETN (FMLP) from UBS; this fund will offer a play into the MLP space while avoiding energy plays, which often dominate holdings in broad MLP ETNs.
- Other large-cap growth ETFs: IWF, SKF, VUG, SPYG, IVW, RPG, MGK, SCHG, VOOG, JKE, IWY, PWB, FBG, UKF, FTC, VONG, SFK, RWG, SYG, PXLG, FIBG
- Other MLP ETFs: AMLP, AMJ, MLPL, MLPI, MLPA, MLPN, EMLP, MLPS, MLPX, AMU, ATMP, ENFR, MLPW, IMLP, OSMS
May 27, 2014, 1:41 PM
- "The market is not cheap but it is not especially expensive either," writes Laszlo Birinyi, calling for the S&P 500 to take out 1,970 between now and the end of September. Lackluster economic data, so-so corporate earnings, and blowups in many Internet, social media, and biotech names aren't a concern, but instead a positive. "The overall market is shrugging off the tech and biotech problems, and that’s important ... [it's] “the last stage of a great bull market. It’s the exuberant phase.”
- Of his relatively muted call (1,970 is little more than 3% above the current level): "To suggest that we will leave NY on Monday morning and arrive in LA mid-Saturday ignores the possibilities of detours, flat tires, bad weather and other realities ... We are still of the belief that this market will, like others before it, end with a burst of enthusiasm, with magazine covers and with detailed stories about the stock market perhaps even making it to page one now and again."
- ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, RPG, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, BXUB, VOOV, SFLA, SPLX, BXUC, FTA
Apr. 17, 2014, 12:46 PM
- The major averages are managing to hang in there - S&P 500 (SPY +0.1%), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) - despite sizable earnings-related declines in a number of high-profile names. IBM -3.4%, Google -4.5%, American Express -2%, and Chipotle Mexican Grill -1.9%. United Health -3.7%, and leading health insurer stocks lower amid dour comments on Medicare rate cuts and high Hepatitis C costs.
- Not all the big earnings names are lower though: Morgan Stanley +3.6%, GE +2.3%, and Goldman Sachs about flat.
- Also weighing is a big jump in Treasury yields after initial jobless claims remained right around 300K and the Phila Fed Index popped to a 7-month high. The 10-year Treasury is up 8 basis points to 2.71%.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, PSQ, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, TQQQ, SPXL, QID, RSP, SQQQ, QLD, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, RPG, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, BXUB, QQEW, VOOV, QQQE, TRND, SFLA, QQXT, BXUC, SPLX, BXDB, FTA, TNDQ
Apr. 8, 2014, 7:05 AM
- Stock index futures are marginally lower after a couple of ugly sessions, with the best news for stock bulls maybe being a loud, above-the-fold headline on Marketwatch.com that Dennis Gartman is "Scared" and has exited the stock market (in yen terms?).
- Europe's off more than 1% and the Nikkei fell another 1.4% overnight, but buying continues in emerging markets, led last night by a 1.9% gain in Shanghai.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is up a basis point to 2.71% and gold gets some mojo back, up 1.1% to $1,312 per ounce.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, IVE, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IVV, VOO, SPXU, UPRO, TQQQ, SPXL, QID, SPXS, RSP, DOG, SQQQ, QLD, DXD, RWL, EPS, UDOW, SDOW, IVW, SPYG, DDM, RPG, IWB, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, BXUB, QQEW, VOOV, VONE, QQQE, TRND, SFLA, QQXT, BXUC, SPLX, ROLA, BXDB, FTA, ONEK, TNDQ, EWRI, LGLV
Apr. 4, 2014, 8:41 AM
- In addition to February's revision from 175K in job gains to 197K, January is revised higher by 15K jobs to 144K.
- Average hourly earnings fell by $0.01 to $24.30. On a Y/Y basis, average hourly earnings are higher by 2.1%. The average workweek increased 0.2 hours to 34.5 hours, offsetting the net decline over the previous three months.
- The headline unemployment rate didn't fall as expected, but this came as people flocked back into the workforce to the tune of about 500K workers. The labor force participation rate rises to 63.2% from 63% previously. A year ago it was 63.3%.
- The broader U-6 unemployment rate rose to 12.7% from 12.6%. A year ago it stood at 13.9%.
- S&P 500 (SPY) futures pop just a bit higher, now +0.3%; the 10-year Treasury yield ticks down a basis point to 2.79%.
- S&P 500 ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, IVV, VOO, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, RWL, EPS, IVW, SPYG, RPG, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, BXUB, VOOV, TRND, SFLA, BXUC, BXDB, SPLX, FTA
- Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TTT, TMF, SBND, ZROZ, IEI, TLH, DLBS, TYO, DTYS, VGLT, BIL, UST, SHV, UBT, TBX, VGIT, TLO, VGSH, SCHO, GSY, DTYL, ITE, SCHR, LBND, TYD, TENZ, TYBS, DTUL, SST, DTUS, FIVZ, TUZ, TBZ, DFVL, DLBL, DFVS, TYNS
- Previously: 192K jobs gain in March about inline
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