Donald Trump gave investors a road map to the administration.
The President-elect tweeted that the two simple rules of his administration are to buy American and hire American.
If trade and tax policies are supported by DJT's new directive, there could be some broad implications for certain stocks.
Companies like Target (NYSE:TGT), Kroger (NYSE:KR), AT&T (NYSE:T), Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA) and Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN) could be in a decent position, while things get trickier for the likes of Nike (NYSE:NKE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), Ford (NYSE:F), Toyota (NYSE:TM) and a host of other multinationals.
There's also big players like Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) that stand somewhere in the middle.
Add your own "buy American, hire American" stock picks in the comment stream.
It's no secret that value investing has lagged growth investing since the post-financial crisis bull market began, and it's all too predictable that investors would give up on the sector at just the wrong time. Indeed, the team at Morningstar discovered the flow of funds in value funds turned negative toward the end of 2015. Since, the iShares Russell 100 Value ETF (NYSEARCA:IWD) has outperformed the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:IWF).
To review, there's plenty of academic research finding value stocks outperform growth over the long term - with the emphasis on long term. Morningstar: "Value exists because there are suckers on the other side of the poker table willing to take the flipside of the value bet."
The bulk of Bank of America Merrill Lynch's 2016 global outlook is a near-perfect extrapolation of current trends and themes - modest economic growth, a slow rise in U.S. rates diverging from other global central banks, commodities and credit under pressure, continued recovery in U.S. housing.
One standout line does interest however, and that's the team's expectation for value to make a comeback versus growth.
The research is fairly ample that value trumps growth, but it hasn't worked out that way for years. As measured by the Vanguard Value ETF (NYSEARCA:VTV) and the Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:VUG), growth has trumped value by 690 basis points this year, and more than 2K basis points over the last five years.
It brings to mind another long period of growth beating value - the mid-to-late 1990s (how'd that one work out?).
Russell Investments is planning its annual index realignment today, affecting more than $5T in assets. Credit Suisse estimates $42B will trade as a result of the adjustment, resulting in one of the biggest trading days of the year in terms of dollar volume.
Asset managers and investors will have to realign their portfolios to match up with the new shifts in indices such as the Russell 2000 and the Russell 3000.
Due to the expected surge in volume, exchanges are now busy preparing for possible technical issues occurring over the course of the day.
Yesterday, the London Stock Exchange said it will acquire Frank Russell for $2.7B.
London Stock Exchange (LDNXF) has announced that it is buying the asset-management and stock index unit Frank Russell for $2.7B. A large chunk of the funding for the acquisition will be based off a $1.6B rights issue to be issued in September.
The stock-index operations of Frank Russell include the Russell 2000 barometer of small-cap stocks, while the investment business has $256B in assets under management.
London Stock Exchange (LDNXF) is in exclusive negotiations with Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance to buy the latter's asset-management and stock index unit, Frank Russell, which the WSJ reports could be worth $3B.
The stock-index operations include the Russell 2000 barometer of small companies, while the investment business has $260B of assets under management. (PR)
It may be too late to pick up the "free desert" of higher returns from small caps and value stocks, suggests Larry Swedroe, as their historical outperformance is now common knowledge. In the past few years, markets have quickly bid up the share prices of these names alongside numerous publications and studies proving their superiority as investments. "One of the characteristics of an efficient market is that once an anomaly is discovered, the very act of exploiting it will cause it to rapidly shrink and eventually disappear."
Comparing metrics for the two of the more popular dividend strategies - the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY +0.4%) and the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG +0.7%) - against the two largest large-cap value ETFs - the Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD +0.9%) and Vanguard's Value ETF (VTV +0.7%) - Larry Swedroe finds valuations quite stretched for the dividend players.
The SDY sports a P/E ratio of 17.2x, price/book ratio of 2.5x, and price/cash flow ratio of 10.5x, with the VIG showing similar. The value ETFs have P/E below 14x, price/books below 2x, and price/cash flow below 6x.
The popularity of dividends has led to a pleasing rise in the values of the stocks, but has thus reduced expected future returns, reminds Swedroe. And for taxable accounts, it's even worse as dividends are less tax-efficient than capital gains.
BAML's Sell Side Indicator is on the rise but remains in "extreme bearish" territory, thus continuing a contrarian buy signal for stocks.
The latest read of 53.3% comes against the 15-year average of 60.3%. As long as it remains below 54.4%, the buy signal continues (it's spent about all of 2012 and 2013 there). As comparison, the indicator was in the same low-to-mid-50 area at the March 2009 bottom.
The index tracks back to 1985, and until the last couple of years, sell-side consensus spent very little time in extreme bearish territory. Now it seems to be the norm.
A "public service" from John Hussman who presents this long-term chart of the S&P 500 (SPY -0.3%) matched against occasions when the Investors Intelligence poll registered Bears at less than 18.5%, the Shiller P/E ratio stood above 19, and the S&P 500 was at a 5-year high: 1973, 1987, 2007, and today.
Multiple expansion was behind stock gains this year, but next year it'll have to be earnings and money flow rather than further valuation re-rating, says Goldman's David Kostin, reiterating his cautious 1,900 end-of-2014 target for the S&P 500 (SPY).
Margins are key, and Goldman's forecast is the "greatest investable gap relative to consensus expectations.” The bank expects 8.9% in 2014 and 9% in 2015 vs. the Street at 9.5% and 10.1%, respectively. Every 50 basis point swing in margins translates into a swing of about $5 per share in EPS.
Four recommended strategies: Pick growth (IWF) over value (IWD), firms investing in capex, companies with high buyback yields (seems contradictory with previous), and stocks with high operating leverage.
As for sectors, Goldman is favoring IT (VGT), consumer discretionary (XLY), and industrials (XLI) vs. underweighting consumer staples (XLP), utilities (XLU, IDU), and telecom (IST).
What George Soros' The Alchemy of Finance was to global macro investors, Michael Burry's journal of trades in 2000/2001 may be to value fans. "My strategy isn't very complex. I try to buy shares of unpopular companies when they look like road kill, and sell them when they've been polished up a bit ... I care little about the level of the general market and put few restrictions on potential investments."
Plucked out of message-board obscurity and staked by Joel Greenblatt, Burry posted returns at his Scion Capital hedge fund of 8.2% in 2000 (partial year), 44.7% in 2001, and 13.1% in 2002, as the S&P lost 7.5%, 11.9%, and 22.1% during the same periods. When the S&P bounced 28.7% in 2003, Scion gained 50.7%.
This journal shows Burry willing to venture into just about any industry or situation as long as he sees value there. One place he definitely didn't spot value was in the previously-favored big cap tech names as their stock prices imploded. "Now that the bubble is pricked, tech stocks will face scrutiny they never faced before. It is a good time to start picking prices based on a solid understanding of the fundamentals ... greater bargains are sure to come."
Burry went on make an even bigger fortune for himself and his investors by shorting MBS from 2005 on (though his investors, including Greenblatt, never forgave him for straying from stockpicking).