Barely in the green for the year at the moment, the S&P 500 could slide 10% between now and October, says the technician, but there's a stealth bear market already happening in the Nasdaq, S&P Mid-Cap, and Russell 2000, and when support breaks (less than another 2%), those indices could see 20-25% declines.
The situation reminds him of 1994 when the Dow and S&P were in a trading range all year, but things were falling apart underneath the surface.
Following the washout into October, though, Acampora sees a "very, very strong Q4."
"I don't want to miss out." a Los Angeles real estate appraiser said in a note to his financial adviser last week after seeing one pundit up his DJIA forecast to 20K.
"Frankly, from 2009 until recently, I wanted to stay very conservative," says a technology sales manager. "I want to get more aggressive."
A Houston attorney and stock market skeptic was turned by her Schwab statement showing YTD gains of nearly 20%. She's planning on set aside more of her paycheck for stocks. "Sometimes you feel like it's too late. But it's probably never too late."
"The small cap valuation story has also deteriorated a bit," writes Credit Suisse's Calvasina and Mahaffy, noting the relative ratio between small caps and mid caps has gotten back in line with the long-term average.
A bigger issue though, is absolute valuations - small and mid cap stocks have become overvalued relative to large caps which themselves are overvalued.
Bottom line: The entire equity market has a valuation problem and the valuation of small and mid caps is little better or worse.