JA Solar: Does This Second Fiddle Company Deserve A Second Look?
EnerTuition • 49 Comments
EnerTuition • 49 Comments
Mon, Apr. 25, 7:28 PM
- SunEdison suppliers JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) and Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) are likely not going to see $20.9M owed to them by the alternative-energy flameout, which filed for bankruptcy on Thursday.
- SunEdison says it's going to make payroll and make "certain vendor payments," but that may not apply to trade suppliers, says Credit Suisse's Patrick Jobin.
- It owes JA Solar $10.4M and Trina Solar $10.5M, and: “These are not trivial amounts, potentially impacting full-year earnings 6.6%-11.8% in a ‘worst case’ scenario of not receiving payments."
- Trina's EPS could drop substantially, he says (to $0.32 from $0.41), and JA Solar EPS could drop to $0.43 from $0.61.
- Now read The SunEdison Story: A Few Takeaways »
Tue, Mar. 15, 7:12 AM
Mon, Mar. 14, 5:30 PM
Thu, Feb. 25, 4:47 PM
- JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) now expects to report Q4 cell/module shipments of 1.32GW-1.35GW, above prior guidance of 1.1GW-1.2GW. Revenue is expected to be in a range of RMB4.4B-RMB4.6B ($674M-$704M), well above a $604.2M consensus.
- Gross margin is expected to be in a 16.4%-17.4% range. Q4 results are due on the morning of March 15.
- JASO +1.8% after hours to $9.08. Canadian Solar hiked its Q4 guidance last week.
Tue, Feb. 16, 2:36 PM
- Solar stocks are among the standouts (TAN +6.4%) as the Nasdaq rises 2.1% and the S&P 1.6%. The gains come after Canadian Solar (up 16.6%) hiked its Q4 sales, module shipment, and gross margin guidance.
- SunEdison (SUNE +20.6%), clobbered last week amid a temporary asset sale restraining order that further stoked bankruptcy fears, is rebounding. The gains come in spite of a downgrade to Neutral from BofA/Merrill's Krish Sankar, who's worried about a mixture of financing, legal, and execution issues.
- Yingli (YGE +15.9%), another company that has seen its share of solvency fears, is also up strongly. Other big gainers include SunPower (SPWR +11.2%), SolarCity (SCTY +6.2%), JinkoSolar (JKS +11.6%), Trina (TSL +7.5%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +8.4%), Enphase (ENPH +7.7%), Daqo (DQ +7.2%), JA Solar (JASO +6.9%), Sky Solar (SKYS +7.5%), and SunEdison acquisition target Vivint Solar (VSLR +9.5%).
- Five days ago: Solar stocks hammered again; SunEdison tumbles after lawsuit
Thu, Jan. 7, 2:32 PM
- Solar stocks are among the biggest casualties as the Nasdaq drops 2.8% and markets generally go into risk-off mode. After soaring last month in response to U.S. renewable tax credit extensions, the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is now just slightly over $2 above a 52-week low of $25.25.
- SunEdison (down 33%) is the biggest decliner in the group, after having announced a set of dilutive debt offerings and exchange transactions. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -14.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS -14.6%), Solar3D (SLTD -11.2%), Sky Solar (SKYS -16.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE -10.4%) are also seeing double-digit losses.
- Other major decliners: SolarCity (SCTY -6.8%), First Solar (FSLR -5.5%), SunPower (SPWR -9.9%), Enphase (ENPH -6%), SolarEdge (SEDG -5.3%), TerraForm Power (TERP -8.2%), TerraForm Global (GLBL -5.7%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%).
Dec. 16, 2015, 9:52 AM
- Solar stocks are flying higher (TAN +6.4%) after House Republicans unveiled (as part of a compromise with Democrats that involved lifting a U.S. oil export ban) that would keep the solar investment tax credit (ITC, has been set to expire at the end of 2016) at 30% through 2019, before being phased down through 2022.
- In addition, the wind production tax credit (PTC) would be extended through 2020, albeit with a phase-down from a current level of 2.3 cents per kWh that would start in 2017.
- U.S. solar firms are naturally among the biggest gainers: The group includes SolarCity (SCTY +24.6%), SunEdison (SUNE +17%), First Solar (FSLR +8.5%), SunPower (SPWR +14.3%), Sunrun (RUN +23.1%), TerraForm Power (TERP +8.3%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +5.6%), Solar3D (SLTD +4.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +6.9%). SunEdison/TerraForm also have healthy wind exposure. Enphase (ENPH +29.1%) is soaring on the news and a Roth upgrade to Buy.
- Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG +14.4%), which has strong exposure to U.S. installers, is also surging. Other winners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +8.4%), Trina (TSL +4.9%), JinkoSolar (JKS +7.3%), JA Solar (JASO +3.1%), China Sunergy (CSUN +3.8%), and TerraForm Global (GLBL +5.6%). JA Solar has also been upgraded to Buy by Roth.
Nov. 17, 2015, 3:28 PM
- SunEdison is down 33% as fears about the solar/wind project developer's balance sheet and cash flow profile continue unabated, and 13F filings indicate many hedge funds pared or liquidated their positions in Q3.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -4.8%) has fallen towards $26; the 52-week low (set in September) is $25.25. The Nasdaq and S&P are down modestly.
- Aside from SunEdison and its YieldCos, notable decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.7%), SunPower (SPWR -7.5%), Enphase (ENPH -11.1%), SolarEdge (SEDG -7.7%), Daqo (DQ -4.3%), and Sunrun (RUN -4.9%). All but Daqo have strong North American exposure.
- SolarCity (SCTY -7.7%) is also off sharply, though Elon Musk has disclosed fresh purchases over the last few days. JA Solar (JASO -2.6%) is lower in spite of posting a Q3 beat and issuing solid Q4 shipment guidance.
Nov. 17, 2015, 9:53 AM
- After opening higher, JA Solar (JASO -0.6%) has quickly given back the early gains it saw after beating Q3 estimates and guiding for Q4 cell/module shipments of 1.1GW-1.2GW, up from 952.7MW a year earlier.
- Due to strong third-party demand, less than 100MW of modules are now expected to be used in 2015 for JA's downstream projects, down from prior guidance of 150MW. The company plans to respectively up its annual module, cell, and wafer production capacity to 5GW, 5GW, and 1.5GW by mid-2016.
- Shipments: Q3 shipments totaled 1.13GW, +43.5% Y/Y and soundly above guidance of 900MW-950MW. Module shipments were 1.07GW, and cells 53MW. Strong demand from China (53.1% of shipments, up from 34.8% a year ago) fueled the growth. Other Asia-Pac markets accounted for 36.3% of shipments, Europe 7.8%, the Americas 1%, and other markets 1.8%.
- Financials: Lifting EPS: Gross margin rose to 17.7% from Q2's 16.4% and Q3 2014's 15%. Operating expenses rose 43% Y/Y to $59.5M due to higher selling costs. JA ended Q3 with $289.4M in cash, $466M in working capital, $358.2M in short-term borrowings, and $403.5M in long-term borrowings.
- Rising wafer prices "may pressure margins slightly" in Q4. ASPs are expected to remain stable
- Q3 results, PR
Nov. 17, 2015, 7:05 AM
- JA Solar Holdings (NASDAQ:JASO): Q3 EPS of $0.68 beats by $0.36.
- Revenue of $600.97M (+22.1% Y/Y) beats by $88.6M.
Nov. 16, 2015, 5:30 PM
Nov. 10, 2015, 11:14 AM
- SunEdison (SUNE -18.9%) has plunged to new multi-year lows after posting mixed Q3 results, cutting its full-year cash available for distribution (CAFD) guidance, and narrowing its full-year project delivery guidance. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.5%) has gone south in spite of beating estimates and providing above-consensus Q4 guidance.
- Solar peers are also off - the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is at its lowest levels since early October. U.S. decliners include First Solar (FSLR -6.2%), SolarCity (SCTY -6%), SunPower (SPWR -6.3%), Enphase (ENPH -8.1%), Solar3D (SLTD -4.6%), SunEdison's TerraForm Power (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo, and SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -3.9%).
- International decliners include Chinese plays Trina (TSL -5.7%), ReneSola (SOL -7.1%), JinkoSolar (JKS -9.2%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%), as well as Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG -6.7%) and SunEdison's emerging markets-focused TerraForm Global (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo.
- “Right now I want the company to become more boring, Boring, and cash-flow generating," said embattled SunEdison CEO Ahmad Chatila on the Q3 earnings call. He reiterated SunEdison expects to build 3.3GW-3.7GW of projects in 2016; the company had once planned to build 4.5GW.
Oct. 26, 2015, 3:58 PM
- JA Solar (JASO -3.1%) has opened a solar cell manufacturing plant in Penang, Malaysia with a capacity of 400MW/year. The cells will be used to manufacture JA modules in non-Chinese markets, and thereby help the company sidestep tariffs/quotas on Chinese-made modules.
- For reference, JA had 2014 cell shipments of 651MW, and module shipments of 2.41GW. The company invested MYR300M ($71M) in the Malaysian facility.
Oct. 2, 2015, 4:03 PM
- Like various other names clobbered in recent weeks as markets went into risk-off mode, solar stocks posted outsized gains today, with the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) more than erasing its big Monday losses. A rally in energy stocks (aided by higher crude prices) likely helped out. The Nasdaq rose 1.7%, and the S&P 1.4%.
- SunEdison (SUNE +14.7%), which continues trading at a fraction of its June/July highs thanks to debt/cash flow fears and apparent hedge fund selling, was a standout. SolarCity (SCTY +7.3%), which made a high-efficiency panel announcement earlier today, also fared quite well, as did SunEdison buyout target Vivint (VSLR +10.8%), SunEdison YieldCo TerraForm Power (TERP +12.9%), and fellow North American firms Canadian Solar (CSIQ +12.5%), First Solar (FSLR +6.5%), SunPower (SPWR +5.8%), and Enphase (ENPH +11.4%).
- In addition to Daqo, ReneSola, and Yingli (previously covered), Chinese winners included JinkoSolar (JKS +11.6%), Trina (TSL +6.7%), and JA Solar (JASO +5.7%).
Aug. 25, 2015, 12:34 PM
- The Nasdaq is up 3.4% - a Chinese rate cut is helping - and solar stocks are among the day's standouts. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +7.4%) is now up 14% from a Monday morning low of $25.51, albeit still down 13% from where it traded going into last week.
- Today's gains come after Pres. Obama announced several new incentives meant to boost solar investment. Among them: $1B in additional loan guarantee authority for distributed energy projects, the unlocking of Property-Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) financing for solar installations involving single-family homes, and the creation of a HUD/DOE program to give homeowners "a simple way to measure and improve the energy efficiency of their homes, by increasing homeowners' borrowing power."
- The announcement follows the White House's early-August unveiling of its Clean Power Plan, which aims to cut carbon emissions by 32% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels. Solar still only accounts for less than 1% of U.S. electricity output; renewable sources collectively account for 13%, with hydro responsible for half of the total and wind about a third.
- It also follows the launch of Google's Project Sunroof, which (with the help of satellite imagery) provides would-be home solar installers with advise on installation size and financing options, among other things.
- Major gainers include First Solar (FSLR +8.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS +27.1%), Trina (TSL +17.2%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ +13.2%), SunPower (SPWR +6.6%), JA Solar (JASO +10.6%), China Sunergy (CSUN +12.3%), Yingli (YGE +7.3%), SolarEdge (SEDG +6.9%), and Daqo (DQ +5.9%).
- Cowen has launched coverage on Canadian Solar with an Outperform rating and $28.50 target. Meanwhile, First Solar thin-film module rival TSMC announced today it's shuttering its solar manufacturing ops, while citing a lack of scale/competitiveness.
Aug. 19, 2015, 1:31 PM
- Solar stocks are underperforming (TAN -4%) as both oil and energy stocks post big losses following an unexpected rise in crude inventories, and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -20%) tumbles in the wake of a Q2 beat and light Q3 guidance. The Nasdaq is down 0.7%, and the S&P 0.8%.
- Major decliners include David Einhorn/Stephen Mandel favorite SunEdison (SUNE -7.2%), which has nosedived since posting Q2 numbers on Aug. 6, and is a day removed from pricing a $650M convertible stock offering. Also selling off: Inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -9.6%), which tumbled last week in spite of an FQ4 beat and strong FQ1 guidance, and China's Trina (TSL -7.8%), which rose slightly yesterday following a Q2 beat and full-year guidance hike.
- Other casualties include prominent U.S. names First Solar (FSLR -4.7%) and SolarCity (SCTY -3.7%), Chinese plays JinkoSolar (JKS -7.9%) and JA Solar (JASO -3.5%), and SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -3.2%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -3.6%).
- Roth's Philip Shen is defending both Canadian and solar YieldCos. "Although yieldcos are no longer in vogue—for now —we fundamentally believe the quality of solar asset cash flows are high and that there is tremendous amount of growth ahead ... [Canadian's] management indicated that its yieldco launch remains on track for a YE'15 or early 2016 launch, and the confidential filing could occur soon ... Hypothetically, if CSIQ were not successful in launching its yieldco, the company would still be able to recycle its capital by selling its assets. Management believes this could drive $1bn of revenue in 2015, and we estimate this could represent ~$2.50 of EPS. "
- Canaccord's Jonathan Dorsheimer: "We continue to believe that Canadian Solar's module business will experience a tightening supply/demand during this bullish end-of-year adoption cycle, which should benefit CSIQ's core operations. Although recent YieldCo and solar volatility have had dramatic valuation impacts, we believe the fundamental PV growth story is still intact."
JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company, which is engaged in the design, development, and manufacture of solar power products. Its products include solar cells, solar modules, and silicon wafers. It is also involved in the following services: solar products processing, and... More
Industry: Semiconductor - Specialized
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