JA Solar: Does This Second Fiddle Company Deserve A Second Look?
EnerTuition • 49 Comments
EnerTuition • 49 Comments
Fri, Jun. 24, 2:10 PM
- Needham solar analyst Edwin Mok sees significant implications for the industry from the Brexit vote, amplifying bearishness on several names.
- The biggest hit will come for module and inverter makers like First Solar (FSLR -5.3%), along with Chinese makers, including Trina Solar (TSL -4.5%), JinkoSolar (JKS -5.6%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -10.4%) and JA Solar (JASO -4.1%), he writes. A weaker euro means price impact: "Additionally, if Brexit results in slower demand, it could exacerbate module oversupply just as multiple producers are adding capacity. This in turn could also drive prices lower."
- A notable exception for Mok is SolarEdge (SEDG -4.5%), for which he maintains a Buy. Still: "The vast majority of [SEDG] sales are priced in the euro. With limited cost infrastructure in Europe as a natural hedge, weakness in the euro would have a direct impact to SEDG’s bottom line."
- And U.S. firms like SolarCity (SCTY -2.4%), Sunrun (RUN -7.4%) and Vivint (VSLR -4.7%) could benefit with zero international exposure and possibly lower costs of capital.
Fri, Jun. 3, 2:11 PM
- Solar stocks are lower today alongside Roth Capital's bearish report on the sector: Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) is off 6%, JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) is 6.4% lower, Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE) is down 2.4%, and JinkoSolar Holdings (NYSE:JKS) is down 2.5%.
- “Heading into H2’16, we are cautious on our entire group of upstream manufacturers given the threat of overcapacity in Q3 as demand in China weakens,” says Roth's Philip Shen.
- The firm downgraded Trina Solar to Neutral with concerns about ASP declines, and lowered its price target to $8 from $12 (now implying 6% upside from today's lowered price). Exposure to the U.S. market might give Trina some protection against the Chinese demand threat.
- Meanwhile, a difference in exposure has Roth very concerned about JA Solar -- also downgraded to Neutral with an $8 price target (now 9% upside from today's lower price). There's limited visibility into second-half bookings, and again: “As a Tier 1 manufacturer, we believe the company will be able to sell all the product it produces. The issue will be one of ASPs, in our view."
- JinkoSolar fares better, maintained at Buy but with a lower price target as well (to $30 from $35, implying 41.7% upside). Margins and improving geographic diversification put the firm in better position than peers, Shen says. Demand's still a worry “given the potential for an air pocket due to the FIT cut in China expected at the end of June."
Fri, May 27, 7:03 AM
Thu, May 26, 5:30 PM
Mon, Apr. 25, 7:28 PM
- SunEdison suppliers JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) and Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) are likely not going to see $20.9M owed to them by the alternative-energy flameout, which filed for bankruptcy on Thursday.
- SunEdison says it's going to make payroll and make "certain vendor payments," but that may not apply to trade suppliers, says Credit Suisse's Patrick Jobin.
- It owes JA Solar $10.4M and Trina Solar $10.5M, and: “These are not trivial amounts, potentially impacting full-year earnings 6.6%-11.8% in a ‘worst case’ scenario of not receiving payments."
- Trina's EPS could drop substantially, he says (to $0.32 from $0.41), and JA Solar EPS could drop to $0.43 from $0.61.
- Now read The SunEdison Story: A Few Takeaways »
Tue, Mar. 15, 7:12 AM
Mon, Mar. 14, 5:30 PM
Thu, Feb. 25, 4:47 PM
- JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) now expects to report Q4 cell/module shipments of 1.32GW-1.35GW, above prior guidance of 1.1GW-1.2GW. Revenue is expected to be in a range of RMB4.4B-RMB4.6B ($674M-$704M), well above a $604.2M consensus.
- Gross margin is expected to be in a 16.4%-17.4% range. Q4 results are due on the morning of March 15.
- JASO +1.8% after hours to $9.08. Canadian Solar hiked its Q4 guidance last week.
Tue, Feb. 16, 2:36 PM
- Solar stocks are among the standouts (TAN +6.4%) as the Nasdaq rises 2.1% and the S&P 1.6%. The gains come after Canadian Solar (up 16.6%) hiked its Q4 sales, module shipment, and gross margin guidance.
- SunEdison (SUNE +20.6%), clobbered last week amid a temporary asset sale restraining order that further stoked bankruptcy fears, is rebounding. The gains come in spite of a downgrade to Neutral from BofA/Merrill's Krish Sankar, who's worried about a mixture of financing, legal, and execution issues.
- Yingli (YGE +15.9%), another company that has seen its share of solvency fears, is also up strongly. Other big gainers include SunPower (SPWR +11.2%), SolarCity (SCTY +6.2%), JinkoSolar (JKS +11.6%), Trina (TSL +7.5%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +8.4%), Enphase (ENPH +7.7%), Daqo (DQ +7.2%), JA Solar (JASO +6.9%), Sky Solar (SKYS +7.5%), and SunEdison acquisition target Vivint Solar (VSLR +9.5%).
- Five days ago: Solar stocks hammered again; SunEdison tumbles after lawsuit
Thu, Jan. 7, 2:32 PM
- Solar stocks are among the biggest casualties as the Nasdaq drops 2.8% and markets generally go into risk-off mode. After soaring last month in response to U.S. renewable tax credit extensions, the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is now just slightly over $2 above a 52-week low of $25.25.
- SunEdison (down 33%) is the biggest decliner in the group, after having announced a set of dilutive debt offerings and exchange transactions. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -14.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS -14.6%), Solar3D (SLTD -11.2%), Sky Solar (SKYS -16.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE -10.4%) are also seeing double-digit losses.
- Other major decliners: SolarCity (SCTY -6.8%), First Solar (FSLR -5.5%), SunPower (SPWR -9.9%), Enphase (ENPH -6%), SolarEdge (SEDG -5.3%), TerraForm Power (TERP -8.2%), TerraForm Global (GLBL -5.7%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%).
Dec. 16, 2015, 9:52 AM
- Solar stocks are flying higher (TAN +6.4%) after House Republicans unveiled (as part of a compromise with Democrats that involved lifting a U.S. oil export ban) that would keep the solar investment tax credit (ITC, has been set to expire at the end of 2016) at 30% through 2019, before being phased down through 2022.
- In addition, the wind production tax credit (PTC) would be extended through 2020, albeit with a phase-down from a current level of 2.3 cents per kWh that would start in 2017.
- U.S. solar firms are naturally among the biggest gainers: The group includes SolarCity (SCTY +24.6%), SunEdison (SUNE +17%), First Solar (FSLR +8.5%), SunPower (SPWR +14.3%), Sunrun (RUN +23.1%), TerraForm Power (TERP +8.3%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +5.6%), Solar3D (SLTD +4.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +6.9%). SunEdison/TerraForm also have healthy wind exposure. Enphase (ENPH +29.1%) is soaring on the news and a Roth upgrade to Buy.
- Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG +14.4%), which has strong exposure to U.S. installers, is also surging. Other winners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +8.4%), Trina (TSL +4.9%), JinkoSolar (JKS +7.3%), JA Solar (JASO +3.1%), China Sunergy (CSUN +3.8%), and TerraForm Global (GLBL +5.6%). JA Solar has also been upgraded to Buy by Roth.
Nov. 17, 2015, 3:28 PM
- SunEdison is down 33% as fears about the solar/wind project developer's balance sheet and cash flow profile continue unabated, and 13F filings indicate many hedge funds pared or liquidated their positions in Q3.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -4.8%) has fallen towards $26; the 52-week low (set in September) is $25.25. The Nasdaq and S&P are down modestly.
- Aside from SunEdison and its YieldCos, notable decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.7%), SunPower (SPWR -7.5%), Enphase (ENPH -11.1%), SolarEdge (SEDG -7.7%), Daqo (DQ -4.3%), and Sunrun (RUN -4.9%). All but Daqo have strong North American exposure.
- SolarCity (SCTY -7.7%) is also off sharply, though Elon Musk has disclosed fresh purchases over the last few days. JA Solar (JASO -2.6%) is lower in spite of posting a Q3 beat and issuing solid Q4 shipment guidance.
Nov. 17, 2015, 9:53 AM
- After opening higher, JA Solar (JASO -0.6%) has quickly given back the early gains it saw after beating Q3 estimates and guiding for Q4 cell/module shipments of 1.1GW-1.2GW, up from 952.7MW a year earlier.
- Due to strong third-party demand, less than 100MW of modules are now expected to be used in 2015 for JA's downstream projects, down from prior guidance of 150MW. The company plans to respectively up its annual module, cell, and wafer production capacity to 5GW, 5GW, and 1.5GW by mid-2016.
- Shipments: Q3 shipments totaled 1.13GW, +43.5% Y/Y and soundly above guidance of 900MW-950MW. Module shipments were 1.07GW, and cells 53MW. Strong demand from China (53.1% of shipments, up from 34.8% a year ago) fueled the growth. Other Asia-Pac markets accounted for 36.3% of shipments, Europe 7.8%, the Americas 1%, and other markets 1.8%.
- Financials: Lifting EPS: Gross margin rose to 17.7% from Q2's 16.4% and Q3 2014's 15%. Operating expenses rose 43% Y/Y to $59.5M due to higher selling costs. JA ended Q3 with $289.4M in cash, $466M in working capital, $358.2M in short-term borrowings, and $403.5M in long-term borrowings.
- Rising wafer prices "may pressure margins slightly" in Q4. ASPs are expected to remain stable
- Q3 results, PR
Nov. 17, 2015, 7:05 AM
- JA Solar Holdings (NASDAQ:JASO): Q3 EPS of $0.68 beats by $0.36.
- Revenue of $600.97M (+22.1% Y/Y) beats by $88.6M.
Nov. 16, 2015, 5:30 PM
Nov. 10, 2015, 11:14 AM
- SunEdison (SUNE -18.9%) has plunged to new multi-year lows after posting mixed Q3 results, cutting its full-year cash available for distribution (CAFD) guidance, and narrowing its full-year project delivery guidance. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.5%) has gone south in spite of beating estimates and providing above-consensus Q4 guidance.
- Solar peers are also off - the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is at its lowest levels since early October. U.S. decliners include First Solar (FSLR -6.2%), SolarCity (SCTY -6%), SunPower (SPWR -6.3%), Enphase (ENPH -8.1%), Solar3D (SLTD -4.6%), SunEdison's TerraForm Power (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo, and SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -3.9%).
- International decliners include Chinese plays Trina (TSL -5.7%), ReneSola (SOL -7.1%), JinkoSolar (JKS -9.2%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%), as well as Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG -6.7%) and SunEdison's emerging markets-focused TerraForm Global (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo.
- “Right now I want the company to become more boring, Boring, and cash-flow generating," said embattled SunEdison CEO Ahmad Chatila on the Q3 earnings call. He reiterated SunEdison expects to build 3.3GW-3.7GW of projects in 2016; the company had once planned to build 4.5GW.
JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company, which is engaged in the design, development, and manufacture of solar power products. Its products include solar cells, solar modules, and silicon wafers. It is also involved in the following services: solar products processing, and... More
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